晶澳科技 20251111 摘要 受传统节假日和天气影响，预计全年组件出货量同比下降约 10%，约为 70 多万件，符合年初响应协会自律限产和反内卷政策的预期。 全球光伏需求预计在 580-600GW 之间，明年可能小幅上涨。国内市场 装机量预计从 300GW 降至 270-300GW，欧洲市场稳定，新兴市场增 长有限。 上游硅片、硅料涨价难以向下游组件传导，因组件客户分散、国内外市 场差异大及需求淡季等因素影响，但反内卷政策和市场判断将支撑未来 价格修复。 海外市场需求逐步修复，欧洲分销商拿货意愿增强，新兴市场表现良好， 对涨价接受度较高。国内组件控价主要依据成本法，在政策推动下价格 逐渐回稳。 预计 2026 年全球光伏装机量小幅上涨至 600GW 左右，中国市场可能 下降，欧洲保持稳定，新兴国家增长较快。公司在阿曼建设电池及组件 产能，增强海外供应链。 美国市场盈利能力强但受政治因素影响大，公司关注边缘政治变化和关 税政策，灵活调整策略应对潜在挑战，预计明年出货量环比提升。 今年下半年组件交付价格逐步修复，但硅料涨幅超过组件，可能导致四 季度报表端盈利偏弱，但预期仍有小幅增长。港股 IPO 处于排队状态 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Polysilicon is currently in an emotion-driven market dominated by policy expectations. The main polysilicon contract price has broken through the previous resistance level of 55,000 yuan/ton. Short-term sentiment may continue to ferment with increased volatility. Investors should control their positions and wait for new policy details [9]. Summary by Related Content Price Movement - On September 5th, the polysilicon futures broke through the upper limit of the 55,000 yuan/ton range. The core logic revolves around "anti-involution", and the market's expectation of capacity clearance has fermented again. The main contract closed above 56,700 yuan/ton [2]. - In terms of spot prices, the price of polysilicon N-type re-feeding material rose from 35,000 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton in July, and then to 49,000 yuan/ton at the end of August. As of early September, it broke through 50,000 yuan/ton, ranging from 49,200 - 54,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From early July to early September, the price of polysilicon re-feeding material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 51,500 yuan/ton (+51%), and the price of N-type 210mm silicon wafers increased from 1.22 yuan/piece to 1.6 yuan/piece (+31%) [4]. Production and Supply - In July, the monthly polysilicon output exceeded the 90,000 - 100,000 tons range of the first half of the year. In August, the output reached 131,000 tons, a 23% month-on-month increase. The output in September is expected to be in the range of 125,000 - 130,000 tons [6]. - Although there are expectations of production restrictions in the market, the actual monthly production reduction by enterprises remains to be seen due to annual production plans and rising prices. Capacity clearance news has a greater impact on market sentiment as it can directly reverse the current supply - demand imbalance [6]. Policy Factor - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a special energy - saving inspection of polysilicon, requiring results to be reported by September 30th. This may provide guidance on energy consumption standards for subsequent capacity clearance, and the market is currently in a "policy vacuum period" [9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts, with polysilicon rising nearly 4% and lithium carbonate dropping over 4% [2] - Polysilicon prices are driven by a leading company's announcement of an upcoming industry restructuring plan, which is expected to impact market sentiment positively [2] - SMM data indicates that the mainstream quotation for polysilicon rods has increased to 55,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, primarily due to expectations of self-discipline production limits in September [2] Group 2 - The futures market shows varied performance, with low-sulfur fuel oil and silver rising over 2%, while ethylene glycol and pure benzene fell over 2% [2] - The article notes that the short-term impact of policies on the market still needs verification, with a focus on the previous policy resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [2] - The sentiment in the spot market is influencing the futures market, indicating a connection between current market conditions and future expectations [2]