Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - As of the close on March 27, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Some commodities like pure benzene and lithium carbonate had significant increases, while others such as container shipping on the European route and caustic soda declined. Futures contracts of stock indexes and treasury bonds also had different trends. The market was affected by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and seasonal factors [6][7]. - The prices of most commodities were expected to be volatile due to the tense situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which had a great impact on the supply of energy - related commodities. Some commodities were expected to have a strong - side oscillation, but risks needed to be controlled [12][14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of March 27, pure benzene and lithium carbonate rose by over 6%, styrene (EB) and ethylene glycol (EG) rose by over 5%, and methanol rose by over 4%. Container shipping on the European route fell by over 3%, and caustic soda and silver futures fell by over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also had different trends. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows while others had outflows [6][7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper (Shanghai Copper)**: In February 2026, China's copper concentrate imports increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The copper concentrate inventory was relatively low. The production of electrolytic copper increased. The demand from the copper product sector started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to fluctuate due to the situation in the Middle East [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate rose by over 6% on March 27. The production in March decreased month - on - month. The import volume in February increased year - on - year. The downstream lithium battery production was in high - growth, but the retail of new - energy vehicles decreased year - on - year. The market was affected by the situation in Zimbabwe and the overall upward trend of non - ferrous metals, but there were potential supply risks [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The U.S. crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Strait of Hormuz was almost closed, which led to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures were taken to relieve the supply pressure, the situation was still tense. The possibility of a U.S. - Iran negotiation was low, and the oil price was at a high - risk of fluctuation [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate decreased, and the planned production in April was significantly lower. The downstream demand started to recover after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate decreased slightly. The supply was affected by the situation in the Middle East, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [15]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: The downstream PP开工率 increased slightly, but the demand recovery was slow. The enterprise开工率 was at a low level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic开工率 decreased, and the downstream开工率 increased but did not return to the pre - holiday level. The cost was affected by the Middle - East situation. The supply was expected to decrease, and the price was expected to oscillate strongly [18][20]. - **PVC**: The PVC开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 also increased but was still lower than the same period last year. The export price increased, but the inventory was still high. The industry had an anti - involution expectation, and the supply was expected to decrease if the Strait of Hormuz did not resume navigation [21]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price decreased on March 27. The mine production resumed smoothly, and the inventory was transferred from mines to downstream. The price decline was a correction after the previous over - rise, and the downward space was expected to be limited [22][23]. - **Urea**: The urea price rose on March 27. The domestic supply was guaranteed by high production and state - reserve goods. The downstream demand was mainly from compound fertilizer factories and other industries. The inventory decreased, and the price was expected to oscillate at a narrow high level [24].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 6, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 6, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Caustic soda, pure benzene, and styrene (EB) hit the daily limit. PVC and ethylene glycol (EG) rose over 5%. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), synthetic rubber, p-xylene (PX), and PTA rose over 4%. Bottle chips and plastics rose nearly 4%. Glass, asphalt, and staple fibers rose over 3%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe and polysilicon fell over 4%, apples fell nearly 3%, and palladium fell nearly 2% [7][8]. Stock Index Futures - The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.60%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.29%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.23%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.38% [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract of 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) fell 0.01%, the main contract of 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) remained flat, the main contract of 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.01%, and the main contract of 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) rose 0.03% [8]. Capital Flow - As of 15:23 on March 6, in terms of capital inflow into domestic futures main contracts, soybean meal 2605 had an inflow of 934 million yuan, PTA2605 had an inflow of 508 million yuan, and PVC2605 had an inflow of 436 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai gold 2604 had an outflow of 5.387 billion yuan, CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 4.218 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an outflow of 3.114 billion yuan [8]. 2. Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed higher but ended the day with a decline. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, lower than expected and the layoff number dropped significantly. In February, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 36,900 tons month-on-month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year-on-year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper in China is expected to increase. With the growth of demand, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports. The copper price has been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off-season in the industry and the copper price is high. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. Overall, the positive signals released by China's Two Sessions policies have limited support, the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been postponed, and the US dollar has shown a strengthening trend recently. With the drag from the fundamentals and macro interference, Shanghai copper is expected to operate in a stable and weak pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 151,750 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Affected by seasonal production cuts and holiday production reductions at the upstream lithium carbonate raw material end, SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in February to be 81,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16%. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with a reduction of about 720 tons this period, and the inventory decline rate narrowed. The downstream inventory turned to accumulation, indicating that the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking up is still high. Except for the inventory digestion and reduction during the holiday, the downstream inventory has been showing an accumulation trend in the short term. From a terminal perspective, at the end of January 2026, the inventory of the national passenger car industry was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles compared to the previous month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles compared to January 2025. The Iran-US conflict has broken out, and military operations are still ongoing. The Iran conflict has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East. According to SMM estimates, the annual demand for energy storage cells in the entire Middle East region in 2026 is about 50 GWh, accounting for about 6% of the global total demand. The integrated demand is about 38 GWh, accounting for about 6.5% globally. Today's rebound is mainly a correction after a large decline. Although it is in a period when the off-season is not off, the strong demand expectation in the early stage has shown a gradual weakening trend, and it is difficult to reach a new high in the short term. Currently, lithium carbonate shows a trend of weakening demand growth rate and increasing supply resumption expectation. Although the downstream support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [12]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan has not been determined yet and may be adjusted later. This is mainly to cope with the significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after it was attacked. OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on April 5. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, the decrease in refined oil inventory was relatively small, and the overall oil product inventory continued to increase. Russia and Ukraine have not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and ceasefire, and both sides are still attacking each other. On February 28, local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran counterattacked Israeli and US military bases in the Middle East. Iran has a large crude oil production and export volume. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for 3% of the global production, and exports about 1.6 million barrels per day on average. It is located at the Strait of Hormuz, an important sea route for crude oil transportation. In 2025, about 13 million barrels of crude oil passed through this strait every day, accounting for about 31% of the global seaborne crude oil flow. The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked. Iraqi oil officials said that due to the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the arrival of oil tankers has been hindered, resulting in full storage facilities. The daily production of Iraq's Rumaila oil field was cut by 700,000 barrels on Tuesday. At the same time, Iran said that if its energy facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the region will be destroyed. Qatar Energy's integrated facility in Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefied natural gas export base, has been attacked by drones, and the company has stopped liquefied natural gas production. Trump said that the military operation against Iran may last for 4 to 5 weeks, but he also said that he is prepared for the "operation to last much longer than this period." Iran claims to be ready for a long-term war. Trump said that he will provide insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the navy will escort them if necessary. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is considering transferring crude oil to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea through the East - West Oil Pipeline. Iran's Deputy Commander of the Central Command said that Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, due to the limited transportation capacity of Yanbu Port and the obstruction of Red Sea shipping by the Houthi rebels, the specific effect of crude oil transportation remains to be observed. In addition, the US Treasury Department is expected to soon announce measures to deal with the soaring energy prices, including intervening in the oil futures market. The domestic crude oil price rose first and then fell. The situation in the Middle East has not cooled down. The UAE and Saudi Arabia may launch self - defense counterattacks against Iran. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near future. The development of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations, so pay attention to risk control and follow the development of the Middle East situation and the crude oil export situation in the Middle East [13][14]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week increased by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 23.3%, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information data, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons in March 2026, an increase of 251,000 tons month-on-month, a growth rate of 13.0%, and a decrease of 43,000 tons year-on-year, a decline rate of 1.9%. This week, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. Among them, the operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points month-on-month to 8%, still lower than the level at the end of January. This week, refineries in Shandong Province resumed production, and the continuous increase in prices boosted the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking up, resulting in a significant increase in its sales volume. The national sales volume increased by 19.86% month-on-month to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level. Just after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt factory inventory has increased significantly. However, the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong Province has increased, but the basis is at a relatively low level. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There are reports that the Chinese quotation of large trader Vitol for Venezuelan crude oil has a discount of $5 per barrel, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13 per barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased. However, it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. Coupled with the current US - Israel attack on Iran, the supply of Iranian raw materials will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials in March. Pay attention to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials. China's imports of Iranian asphalt are not large. Imports of asphalt from the Middle East such as the UAE and Iraq account for about half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production. Henan Fengli plans to resume production next week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover. The supply and demand of asphalt itself will both increase. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the increase in the crude oil price in the near future. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [15][17]. PP (Polypropylene) - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points month-on-month to 45.87%. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre - holiday level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP shows seasonal changes. On March 6, there were not many changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard grade drawn yarn decreased to around 26.5%. During the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has continued to decline after the Spring Festival holiday. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, after the US - Israel attack on Iran and Iran's counterattack against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the crude oil price increased significantly, which significantly boosted PP. Recently, there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. There is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on imports from the Middle East, its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East. The spot price, especially the export price, has increased significantly. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the progress of the resumption of work in the PP downstream after the holiday [18]. Plastic - On March 6, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Fujian United were added, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 90%. Currently, the operating rate is at a neutral to high level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points month-on-month to 28.62%. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre - holiday level. The overall downstream operating rate of PE shows seasonal changes. During the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has continued to decline after the Spring Festival holiday. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, after the US - Israel attack on Iran and Iran's counterattack against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the crude oil price increased significantly, which significantly boosted plastics. In terms of supply, BASF (Guangdong) FDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA with a new production capacity of 300,000 tons/year were put into operation in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. Recently, the plastic operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the resumption of work in the downstream is slow, and the purchasing willingness is weak. The prices of agricultural films in North China and East China have increased, while the prices of agricultural films in South China have remained stable. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved. There is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. However, imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the progress of the resumption of work in the downstream after the holiday [19][20]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has remained stable. On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points month-on-month to 81.11%. The PVC operating rate has started to decrease but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84%, 3.14 percentage points higher than the same period last lunar year. Currently, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are gradually resuming production. In terms of exports, the export orders have rebounded slightly after the holiday, but most export enterprises have completed their pre - sales in March. Coupled with the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, it is expected that PVC export orders will be at a low level in March. In addition, India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the export expectation of PVC has decreased. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week. It is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large. From January to December 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline rates of investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas were still large. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased month-on-month. After the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions improved but are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased. However, the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The social inventory continues to increase, and the calcium carbide price continues to fall. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on March 5, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. The market is affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and seasonal changes [6][7]. - Different commodities have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, copper prices may face upward pressure due to factors like inflation expectations and high - price resistance from downstream; crude oil prices are expected to be strongly volatile due to the Middle - East situation; and some chemical products are expected to be strongly volatile due to cost increases and changes in supply - demand [9][12][17]. 3. Summary by Commodity Commodity Performance - On March 5, 2026, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Caustic soda hit the daily limit, SC crude oil and pure benzene rose over 6%, styrene (EB) rose nearly 6%, and apples rose over 4%. Methanol, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and container shipping European routes fell over 3%, and palladium, rubber, and Shanghai tin fell nearly 1%. Stock index futures generally rose, while treasury bond futures generally fell [6][7]. Market Analysis - **Copper**: In February, China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. It is expected to reach a record high in March. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper is expected to increase, and the supply gap may be filled by imports. High copper prices have led to resistance from downstream, and copper prices may face upward pressure [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It rebounded 3% on March 5. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. Production decreased in February due to seasonal and holiday factors, and inventory continued to decline. Although downstream demand is still strong, the strong demand expectation has weakened, and it is difficult to reach a new high in the short term [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + will increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Middle - East situation, especially the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, has affected the supply and transportation of crude oil. It is expected that crude oil prices will be strongly volatile in the near future [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is at a relatively low level, and the开工 rate decreased slightly. The expected production in March increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream demand is slowly recovering. Due to the impact on raw material supply from Venezuela and Iran, the price is expected to follow the rise of crude oil prices [15]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 decreased seasonally. The enterprise开工率 is at a relatively low level, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, the inventory is being depleted. Due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on crude oil prices, PP is expected to be strongly volatile [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a neutral - to - high level. The downstream开工率 decreased seasonally, and the inventory is being depleted. New production capacity was put into operation in January. Although the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, it is expected to be strongly volatile due to the Middle - East situation [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price decreased. The开工率 increased, and the downstream开工率 is slowly recovering. The export situation is not optimistic, and the social inventory is high. Although the current situation is weak, there are expectations of policies and maintenance, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [20]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed high, showing a weak trend. The domestic mines are gradually resuming production, and the inventory of mines increased while the inventory of independent coking enterprises and steel mills decreased. The coke price is expected to be lowered, and the coking coal fundamentals are weak [21]. - **Urea**: It opened low and closed high, with a slight decline in the afternoon. The daily production increased, and the inventory decreased. Although some international urea plants are affected, the domestic price is mainly affected by domestic supply - demand, and it is expected to be in a narrow - range adjustment [23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant price movements in various commodities, with notable increases in tin, silver, caustic soda, and soybeans, while certain shipping and chemical products experienced declines [1] Group 2 - Tin and silver prices rose by over 3%, indicating strong demand or market conditions favoring these metals [1] - Caustic soda and soybeans saw price increases exceeding 2%, suggesting potential growth in related industries or agricultural sectors [1] - SC crude oil, fuel oil, and low-sulfur fuel oil experienced price rises of over 1%, reflecting ongoing trends in the energy market [1] - On the downside, the European shipping index fell by over 3%, indicating potential challenges in the shipping industry [1] - Styrene (EB) prices dropped by over 2%, which may signal a decrease in demand or oversupply in the market [1] - Other commodities such as polysilicon, coking coal, polyvinyl chloride (PVC), coke, and industrial silicon all saw declines exceeding 1%, pointing to broader market pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market opened with more gains than losses on January 23, 2026, with significant increases in various commodities, particularly platinum and synthetic rubber, while crude oil experienced a notable decline [2][7]. Group 1: Price Movements - Platinum rose over 10% [2][7] - Synthetic rubber hit the daily limit with a 6.99% increase [2][7] - Shanghai silver increased by over 6% [2][7] - Palladium saw a rise of over 5% [2][7] - Other commodities such as 20 rubber, styrene (EB), PTA, and rubber rose nearly 3% [2][7] - Lithium carbonate, bottle chips, pure benzene, short fiber, and ethylene glycol (EG) increased by over 2% [2][7] Group 2: Declines - SC crude oil fell by over 2% [2][7] - Low sulfur fuel oil (LU) decreased by nearly 1% [2][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance on January 22, with certain commodities experiencing significant price changes [1] Group 2 - Asphalt and stainless steel prices increased by over 2% [1] - Synthetic rubber, fuel oil, palm oil, styrene (EB), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and SC crude oil saw price increases of over 1% [1] - In contrast, platinum prices fell by over 4%, palladium by over 3%, and silver on the Shanghai market by over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market opened with mixed results, with significant movements in various commodities, including a notable decline in silver prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic futures market showed a mixed opening, with some commodities like asphalt and stainless steel rising over 2% [1] - Synthetic rubber, fuel oil, palm oil, styrene (EB), low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and SC crude oil all increased by more than 1% [1] - In contrast, platinum fell over 4%, palladium dropped over 3%, and Shanghai silver decreased by more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with mixed results, with platinum rising over 6% [1] - Palladium increased by more than 4%, while lithium carbonate rose over 3% [1] - Gold futures in Shanghai gained over 2%, and PTA increased nearly 2% [1] Group 2 - PX, fuel oil, styrene (EB), methanol, bottle-grade PET, and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) all saw increases of over 1% [1] - Coking coal experienced a decline of over 3%, with caustic soda, coking, and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) dropping by more than 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on January 12, with notable increases in several commodities [1] - Silver futures rose over 10%, lithium carbonate increased nearly 9%, and both platinum and palladium saw gains exceeding 5% [1] - Other commodities such as Shanghai tin rose over 3%, while SC crude oil, Shanghai nickel, PX, PTA, and styrene (EB) all increased by more than 2% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, fuel oil fell by more than 2%, and both polyvinyl chloride (PVC) and glass experienced declines exceeding 1% [1] - Cotton also saw a drop of over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties across various sectors including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products [1][2]. Group 1: Energy and Chemical Products - Institutions show a strong consensus on bullish views for certain products like PX (para-xylene), driven by supply constraints and robust demand, particularly in the first half of 2026 [3][4]. - Conversely, there is a unified bearish outlook for products like MEG (ethylene glycol) and LPG (liquefied petroleum gas), attributed to oversupply and weak demand dynamics [3][4]. - The oil market is expected to experience fluctuations, with Brent crude prices projected to range between $60-70 per barrel in the first half and potentially rise to $70-80 in the second half of 2026 [5][9]. Group 2: Price Predictions and Strategies - Price predictions for Brent crude suggest a range of $55-75 per barrel, with strategies focusing on high sell positions above $65 and long positions if prices drop to around $50 [10][15]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate between 2000-2600 yuan per ton, with strategies emphasizing seasonal trading opportunities [57][90]. - Urea prices are anticipated to range from 1500-1950 yuan per ton, reflecting a supply-demand imbalance and reliance on export policies for stabilization [99][100]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Supply-Demand Balance - The supply-demand balance is projected to shift from a slight surplus in the first half of 2026 to a tighter balance in the latter half, influenced by geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production decisions [7][8][44]. - Institutions highlight the ongoing tension between supply growth from OPEC+ and non-OECD countries against the backdrop of resilient demand, particularly from strategic reserves [7][8]. - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious approach to trading, with many institutions advocating for strategies that capitalize on seasonal fluctuations and geopolitical developments [35][36][37].