Group 1 - The current gold bull market may not be over, as historical comparisons show that its price increase and duration are still lower than the major upcycles of the 1970s and 2000s [1] - The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, long-term adjustments in global reserve structures, and potential downward trends in the dollar cycle support the continuation of the gold bull market [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist, despite gold being considered a relatively expensive asset class [1] Group 2 - In the domestic futures market, the main contracts showed mixed performance, with silver down over 3% and gold, methanol down over 2% [2] - The shipping index (European line) increased by over 6%, while coke and styrene (EB) rose by over 1% [2]

来源：新浪网 2025年11月17日，早盘开盘，国内主力合约涨跌不一。沪银跌超3%，沪金、跌超2%，氧化、沪锡、玻 璃跌超1%；涨幅方面，集运指数（欧线）涨超6%，、苯乙烯（EB）涨超1%，低硫（LU）涨近1%。 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com | 序号 | 合约各称 | 增新 | 现于 | 天价 | 要价 | 原标题 | 天堂 | 中国 | 成交量 | 就联 | 持仓量 | 日报仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1 集运欧线2602 M | 1720.0 | 418 | 1720.0 | 1720.1 | 6.36% | 12 | 20 | 418 | 102.8 | 37807 | -236 | | 2 | 年英2601 in | 1705.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures night market closed with more declines than increases, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol prices fell by over 2% [1] - Glass prices decreased by more than 1% [1] - Caustic soda prices dropped nearly 1% [1] - Coking coal and styrene (EB) prices increased by over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed results on October 15, with the main contracts experiencing both gains and losses [1] - Natural rubber (20号胶) and butadiene rubber saw increases of over 1% [1] - On the downside, styrene (苯乙烯), iron ore (铁矿石), pure benzene (纯苯), and soda ash (纯碱) all fell by more than 1%, while hot-rolled coil (热卷) dropped nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance on September 3, with iron ore, SC crude oil, and Shanghai gold rising over 1% [1] - International copper, Shanghai copper, pure benzene, styrene (EB), methanol, and rebar increased nearly 1% [1] - On the downside, container shipping on the European route fell over 3%, while lithium carbonate and Shanghai nickel dropped more than 1%, and starch and caustic soda declined nearly 1% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic futures contracts, with polysilicon rising nearly 4% and lithium carbonate dropping over 4% [2] - Polysilicon prices are driven by a leading company's announcement of an upcoming industry restructuring plan, which is expected to impact market sentiment positively [2] - SMM data indicates that the mainstream quotation for polysilicon rods has increased to 55,000 yuan/ton, a rise of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, primarily due to expectations of self-discipline production limits in September [2] Group 2 - The futures market shows varied performance, with low-sulfur fuel oil and silver rising over 2%, while ethylene glycol and pure benzene fell over 2% [2] - The article notes that the short-term impact of policies on the market still needs verification, with a focus on the previous policy resistance level of 53,000 yuan/ton [2] - The sentiment in the spot market is influencing the futures market, indicating a connection between current market conditions and future expectations [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. Most products are under downward pressure, and the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analyses [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: After the Trump - Russia meeting in Alaska, the geopolitical disturbance weakened, and the crude oil returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil surplus pressure will gradually materialize [2]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above the hourly level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Fundamental analysis: The supply side has a high weekly operating rate of 78.18%, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August and September. The demand side has a stronger demand recently, but the high port inventory and new production capacity pressure still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path continues. The short - term pressure above is around 7270. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The raw materials in Thailand remain stable during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. The short - term downstream tire operating rate has improved, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently, which provides short - term positive drivers. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driver of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 15950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental analysis: The high production and weak demand situation of synthetic rubber in the medium - term remains unchanged. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. After the new device is put into operation in the third quarter, the supply pressure of raw material butadiene also remains unchanged. Recently, the butadiene port inventory has returned to the average level in the past five years after rapid accumulation, and the short - term positive factor has disappeared. Coupled with the collapse of the upstream crude oil price, the synthetic rubber still maintains a bearish view [14]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 11950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Fundamental analysis: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the PTA operation is stable, the PX fundamentals have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. The movement of the cost - end crude oil still needs to be concerned [17]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, but the hourly line stood above the short - term pressure of 6780 during the session, and the downward structure may be tested. The strategy is to stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle as planned [17]. 6. PTA - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operation has no significant change, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but the change of the cost - end crude oil needs to be noted [21]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. After intraday oscillation, it failed to break through the pressure and fell back. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 7. PP - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure increases due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. The downstream operation has improved, but the inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. The movement of crude oil also needs to be concerned [22]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above temporarily focuses on 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 8. Methanol - Fundamental analysis: After the Iranian device resumed operation, a large number of shipments arrived at the port recently, and the port inventory has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which exerts pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material inventory is high. The overall fundamentals are still driven bearishly [25]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. The intraday is volatile. Specifically, it reached a new low with increased positions at night and then rebounded and repaired during the morning session. The short - term pressure above focuses on 2425 (01 contract). The strategy is to partially stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle and continue to hold the remaining short positions [25]. 9. PVC - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operating rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season, and the inventory continues to accumulate, indicating a bearish fundamental driver [29]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the short - term downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 5060 (01 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Fundamental analysis: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upward space. The starting time of inventory accumulation needs to be concerned [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It is regarded as a rebound today but failed to break through the pressure, and the short - term downward structure remains valid. The short - term pressure above is 4385. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure is relatively large due to the increase in operation and the new production capacity put into operation. The downstream operation remains at a year - on - year low level, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is reflected. The supply - demand driver is bearish [34]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward trend in the hourly level is confirmed after reaching a new low today. The short - term pressure above is referred to as 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [34]. 12. Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: The supply side continues to increase, the speculative demand of glass on the demand side has weakened except for the rigid demand, the inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [39]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash is in a downward structure. After a long - negative line broke through the 15 - minute - level oscillation today, the downward trend may accelerate. The structures of the 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated, still showing a pattern of weak 09 and strong 01. The short - term pressure level of the 09 contract is 1285. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 09 contract [39]. 13. Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The operation of alumina on the demand side remains at a high level, and the operation of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of caustic soda is in an oscillatory structure. After a long - negative line today, the hourly - level upward trend may end. First, look for short - selling opportunities in the 15 - minute downward structure. The short - cycle pressure above the 15 - minute level focuses on 2615. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities when the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the 15 - minute period [43].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures market showed significant gains across major contracts, indicating a bullish trend in various commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Soda ash and glass prices increased by over 4% [1] - Coking coal prices rose by more than 3% [1] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, styrene (EB), coking, and fuel oil saw price increases exceeding 2% [1] - Palm oil and hot-rolled coil prices approached a 2% increase [1] - Minor declines were observed in soybean and cotton prices [1]