加入交易理想国知识星球获取完整版PDF报告及精简版EXCEL 整理 | 对冲研投编辑组 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 新年伊始，我们搜集整理了31家机构对于大宗商品市场2026 年的策略展望，从机构一致看多，一致看空，分期显著以及其他中性四个角度，覆盖了有色、 黑色、能源、化工、农产品、软商品等多个商品板块47个交易品种，就2026年大宗商品机会与风险进行分析，希望对大家新一年的交易有所帮助。 本系列分为：一、基本金属篇；二、黑色金属篇；三、能源化工品种篇；四、农产品软商品篇。 本篇为系列第三篇，覆盖能源化工品种。 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（一） 开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（二） | | 一致看多品种 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 机构观点高度统一看涨，核心逻辑共振。 | | | 品种 | 代表性机构观点 | 核心逻辑 | | 货(偏多)、中信建投期货(强势偏多)、融达期货(相对乐观)。 PX(对二甲苯) | 明确偏多/强势:紫金天风期货(偏强)、五矿期货(明确偏多)、一德 ...

人民财讯12月17日电，国内期货夜盘收盘涨多跌少。焦煤涨近5%，焦炭、玻璃涨超3%，纯碱涨超2%， 铁矿涨近2%；跌幅方面，豆一、苯乙烯（EB）、豆二、菜粕跌近1%。 （原标题：国内期货夜盘收盘 焦煤涨近5%） ...

每经AI快讯，12月17日，早盘收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少。碳酸锂涨超8%，钯、沪银涨超4%， 丁二烯橡胶、多晶硅、铂涨超3%，工业硅、沥青涨超2%；跌幅方面，低硫燃料油（LU）、SC原油、 菜油、苯乙烯（EB）、豆二跌超1%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report provides an overview of the capital flow in various futures markets as of December 8, highlighting significant inflows and outflows across different commodities, indicating market trends and investor sentiment [1]. Group 1: Capital Flow Summary - Copper (CU) saw the highest capital inflow of 3.02 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest [1]. - Styrene (EB) and Zinc (ZN) followed with inflows of 0.87 billion yuan and 0.71 billion yuan, respectively, suggesting positive market sentiment for these commodities [1]. - On the other hand, commodities like palm oil (P), tin (SN), and urea (UR) experienced significant outflows, with capital reductions of 1.06 billion yuan, 1.16 billion yuan, and 0.95 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting bearish sentiment [1]. Group 2: Price and Basis Rate Analysis - The report includes detailed pricing data for various commodities, such as iron ore (I) priced at 787 yuan per ton with a basis rate of 3.48% [5]. - The futures price for rebar (RB) is noted at 3280 yuan per ton, with a basis rate of 5.93%, indicating a positive outlook for this sector [5]. - The report also highlights the price movements of other commodities, such as aluminum (AL) and nickel (NI), with respective prices of 21920 yuan per ton and 122690 yuan per ton, showing slight declines in their basis rates [5].

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.36% to $4,227.7 per ounce, down 0.64% for the week; COMEX silver futures rose 2.28% to $58.8 per ounce, up 2.86% for the week [5]. - U.S. crude oil and Brent crude oil futures both rose. U.S. crude oil rose 0.79% to $60.14 per barrel, up 2.72% for the week; Brent crude rose 1.01% to $63.9 per barrel, up 2.44% for the week [6]. - London base metals were mixed. LME copper rose 1.88% to $11,665 per ton, up 4.25% for the week; LME nickel rose 0.49% to $14,970 per ton, up 0.95% for the week [6]. - U.S. stocks rose slightly. The Dow rose 0.22% to 47,954.99 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.19% to 6,870.4 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.31% to 23,578.13 points [6]. - Domestic futures contracts were mixed. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose over 1%, while coking coal fell over 5% [8]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The State Council executive meeting emphasized energy conservation and carbon reduction. China's futures market volume and turnover increased in November. Shipping freight indices declined. Morgan Stanley and the market expect Fed rate cuts [10][11][12]. - China and the U.S. held a video call on economic and trade issues. Russia hopes to accelerate the peace process in the Ukraine crisis. The U.S. core PCE price index unexpectedly dropped [14][15]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted trading margins and price limits for certain futures contracts. Glass companies may cut production due to high inventory [17]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. Copper, zinc, and lead inventories decreased, while aluminum, nickel, and tin inventories increased [20]. Black Futures - Shenzhen adjusted housing provident fund withdrawal rules. Steel production decreased in late November, while steel product production increased. Iron ore and steel inventories and production data were reported [22][25]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysian palm oil production and exports decreased. Sugar cane crushing in Guangxi was slower than last year. Domestic and global agricultural product data were reported [27][28][30]. 3. Financial Markets Financial Sector - More Shanghai-listed companies announced shareholding increase plans in the first 11 months. The FOF market boomed in 2025. The first batch of North Exchange 50 index funds had positive returns [35]. - A-shares rebounded last week. Analysts expect short-term volatility and recommend dividend and large-cap stocks. The Sichuan government issued a three-year plan for enterprise listing and M&A [36][37]. Industry - Rare disease drugs were included in the medical insurance and commercial insurance catalogs. The global semiconductor market grew in October. The Henan cultivated diamond industry aims to develop brands [38][39]. Overseas - The U.S. government investigated the food supply chain. Trump planned to promote inflation reduction. The EU fined social media platform X. Nigeria hopes to join the BRICS [41][42][43]. Commodities - The central bank increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month. The CME experienced a trading outage. Copper prices hit new highs [44][46]. Bonds - Local governments issued special bonds for government investment funds. Analysts expect a shift in asset trends after December meetings [47]. Foreign Exchange - Analysts expect the RMB to appreciate against the U.S. dollar in 2026 and recommend currency easing to avoid damage to exports [49]. 4. Upcoming Data and Events - Upcoming economic data include Japan's trade balance, Germany's industrial output, and China's import and export data [51]. - Upcoming events include the UK central bank's financial stability report and the European Central Bank's speech. A new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments is pending [53].

（来源：国元期货研究） 来源：国元期货研究 截至2025年12月02日23:00收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。纸浆涨近2%，丁二烯橡胶、苯乙烯 （EB）涨超1%；跌幅方面，玻璃跌超2%，沥青、低硫燃料油（LU）、焦煤、乙二醇（EG）、纯碱、 燃料油、烧碱跌超1%，液化石油气（LPG）、甲醇跌近1%。 国内主要期货品种日度涨跌幅 截至2025年12月02日 截至2025年12月02日15:00收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。合成橡胶涨近4%，沪银、纸浆、焦炭、 集运欧线涨超2%，焦煤、纯碱涨超1%。跌幅方面，多晶硅、沥青、钯、铂、工业硅跌超2%。 品种预测合集 | 偏多 | 王米、原油、尿素、甲醇、花生、铂、윈、沪银、豆油、棕榈油、焦煤、焦 炭、 | | --- | --- | | 中性 | 沪锡、沪金、菜籽油、豆粕、菜粕、豆油、棕榈油、生猪、、苹果、PE、橡 胶、PTA、MEG、PX、PVC、PP、铁矿石、螺纹钢、热卷、白糖、棉花、沪 铅、沪锌、多晶硅、碳酸锂、工业硅、沪铜、沪铝、沪铝、沪铝、IF、IC、TL、原 | | | 木、纯碱 | | 偏空 | 红枣、烧碱、玻璃、鸡蛋 | 1、美国白宫：美国总统特朗 ...

Group 1 - The current gold bull market may not be over, as historical comparisons show that its price increase and duration are still lower than the major upcycles of the 1970s and 2000s [1] - The ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, long-term adjustments in global reserve structures, and potential downward trends in the dollar cycle support the continuation of the gold bull market [1] - There is a possibility that gold prices could exceed $5,000 per ounce next year if current trends persist, despite gold being considered a relatively expensive asset class [1] Group 2 - In the domestic futures market, the main contracts showed mixed performance, with silver down over 3% and gold, methanol down over 2% [2] - The shipping index (European line) increased by over 6%, while coke and styrene (EB) rose by over 1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market may not be over, as its price increase and duration are still lower than the major upcycles of the 1970s and 2000s. The macroeconomic uncertainties and long-term adjustments in global reserve structures suggest that the upward trend in gold prices will continue unless the Federal Reserve completely ends its easing cycle or the U.S. economy enters a strong recovery phase with declining inflation and rising growth [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Domestic main contracts showed mixed performance with silver down over 3% and gold down over 2%. Other commodities like aluminum oxide, tin, and glass also saw declines exceeding 1%. In contrast, the shipping index (European line) rose over 6%, and styrene (EB) increased by over 1% [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Despite the clear bull market logic for gold, it is currently considered a relatively expensive asset class, which may increase asset volatility. The recommendation is to maintain an overweight position in gold while reducing speculative trading, focusing instead on dollar-cost averaging and long-term asset allocation value [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures night market closed with more declines than increases, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Methanol prices fell by over 2% [1] - Glass prices decreased by more than 1% [1] - Caustic soda prices dropped nearly 1% [1] - Coking coal and styrene (EB) prices increased by over 1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant impact of tariffs on global trade, highlighting that the trade volume affected by tariffs among G20 members is expected to quadruple from the previous reporting period, marking the largest increase in the history of WTO trade monitoring [1] Group 1: Trade Measures and Economic Impact - The G20 members are implementing trade facilitation measures in response to the tariff impacts, with the value of these measures doubling compared to the previous period [1] - The report from the WTO indicates that the trade volume affected by tariffs will reach unprecedented levels, emphasizing the urgency for countries to adapt their trade policies [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - Domestic futures markets showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) rising nearly 2%, while other commodities like PTA and ethylene glycol saw increases over 1% [1] - The U.S. stock indices experienced a notable decline, with a market turnover of 2.07 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious investment environment as the year-end approaches [2][10] Group 3: Financial Statistics and Monetary Policy - China's social financing scale increased by 30.9 trillion yuan in the first ten months, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.83 trillion yuan [6] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on balancing the pace and intensity of economic support [6][11] Group 4: Industry Developments - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is preparing a development plan for smart connected new energy vehicles and new battery industries, aiming to expand the application of power batteries [7] - The shipping industry is facing challenges, with Maersk reducing container rates significantly, indicating weaker-than-expected pricing power during the peak season [3][24]