原油继续回落，能化延续下跌压力 行情日评： （一）原油： 逻辑：周末特-普阿拉斯加会晤随未直接达成实质协议，但后会 品种 中期结构 短期结构 小时周期策略 原油 偏空 偏空 空单持有 EB 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PX 震荡 震荡 空单止盈 PTA 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PP 震荡 偏空 空单持有 塑料 震荡 震荡 空单持有 甲醇 偏空 偏空 部分止盈，剩余空单继续持有 EG 震荡 偏空 空单持有 橡胶 震荡 偏空 空单持有 PVC 偏空 偏空 空单持有 BR 橡胶 偏空 偏空 空单持有 纯碱 偏多 偏空 09 空单持有 烧碱 偏空 震荡 寻 15 分钟试空机会 板块观点汇总 后表态相对积极，特朗普未提对俄制裁，俄乌降温趋势短期地缘扰动 减弱，原油重回基本面逻辑，季节性需求拐点临近与 OPEC+增产加速 下原油过剩压力将逐步兑现。 日度技术追踪：原油日线级别中期/跌结构，小时级别短期下跌 结构。今日日内震荡，下跌路径未改，小时级别上方短期压力 490 一 线，策略上小时周期空单持有。 数据来源：天富期货研询部、文华财经 图 1.2：原油小时图 图 1.1：原油 2510 日线图 （二）苯乙烯： 逻辑：供应端最新 ...

Core Viewpoint - Domestic futures market showed significant gains across major contracts, indicating a bullish trend in various commodities [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Soda ash and glass prices increased by over 4% [1] - Coking coal prices rose by more than 3% [1] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC), caustic soda, styrene (EB), coking, and fuel oil saw price increases exceeding 2% [1] - Palm oil and hot-rolled coil prices approached a 2% increase [1] - Minor declines were observed in soybean and cotton prices [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - China is the primary global supplier of major home appliances, with nearly half of its production capacity exported overseas, mainly to fill the supply gaps in North America, Asia, and Europe. However, the export may be affected by demand pull - forward and price increases caused by tariffs. - In 2025, the subsidy effect of China's white goods may weaken in H2, and the stabilizing property market is expected to support domestic demand resilience. Export pressure will increase, and production scheduling will decline. The slowdown in the global production and sales growth of major appliances will suppress the demand for copper and EB [2][3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. China's Home Appliance Exports - China's home appliance exports are mainly to Asian, European, and North American countries. In 2024, the total export value of China's three major white goods was $50.9 billion, with a total volume of 219 million units. Half of China's domestic capacity serves global demand. Refrigerators, washing machines, and air - conditioners exported to Europe and North America account for 45%, 52%, and 37% respectively [9][10]. - The ratio of China's domestic sales, exports, and overseas production is 3:3:4. China fills about half of North America's supply - demand gap. China directly exports about 22 million units to the US, accounting for 10.5% of total exports. In 2024, imports from China accounted for nearly 50% of North America's supply - demand gap [12][14]. 2. Negative Impact of Tariffs - The US tariff policy has shifted from targeting China's production capacity to promoting the use of domestic materials. On June 12, the US imposed new duties on steel - derived appliances from June 23. Steel accounts for 15% of refrigerator costs and 35% of washer costs [19][20]. - Tariff - induced demand pull - forward and price hikes may suppress China's export demand. There is an inverse relationship between US appliance sales YoY growth and major appliance CPI. A 10% price increase in 2025 is expected to lead to only about 1% volume growth in North America [25][26]. 3. Copper & EB Demand May Face Pressures 3.1 China Appliance Market - The efficacy of China's white goods subsidy may weaken in H2. As of April 27, the national replacement sales reached 49.4 million units. After the initial RMB160 billion allocation, RMB140 billion will be gradually disbursed from July. Regional subsidy restrictions will be implemented, and the real - estate market is expected to support a 5% YoY growth in domestic sales in 2025 [30][31]. - China's appliance exports face H1 demand pull - forward and H2 order pressure. The restocking cycle is expected to end by August, and Q3 production will be pressured. China's full - year appliance export growth is estimated at 2% [32][33]. 3.2 Related Commodities Risks - In 2025, the global sales of three major white goods are estimated at 614 million units, a 3.62% YoY increase. China's total sales are projected at 444 million units, and the total output is 694 million units, a 4.45% YoY increase. - The consumption of steel, copper, aluminum, and EB in home appliance production is forecast at 262.6 million tons, 28.4 million tons, 22.9 million tons, and 7.6 million tons respectively. Since home - appliance use of EB accounts for 40% of total EB demand and EB supply is already in surplus, its demand pressure will be prominent in H2. Copper's supply - demand is in a tight balance, and a decline in appliance demand may increase the risk of surplus [35][36].

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates a warning regarding the order flow of styrene (EB), with the main contract fluctuating below multiple short-selling accumulation zones [1] - As of 21:37, the price of styrene (EB) is reported at 7298 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of over 1% [1]

Group 1 - The main contracts for glass and soda ash fell over 1% during the night session [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), palm oil, styrene (EB), and fuel oil main contracts dropped nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The core market activity is driven by the surge in caustic soda and coking coal, with significant buying interest leading to price increases [1][5]. - Coking coal's main contract saw a funding explosion at 10:34, with a main buying fund ratio of 62.64% and a transaction value exceeding 1.4 billion [3]. - Caustic soda's main contract also experienced a funding explosion at 10:34 and 10:36, with main buying fund ratios exceeding 60% and transaction values surpassing 2 billion [5]. Group 2 - Key market signals for popular commodities such as coking coal, silicon iron, and styrene (EB) are highlighted, indicating potential trading opportunities [1]. - The price movements for coking coal showed a high of 5524 and a low of 5486, with an opening price of 5486 and a closing price of 5508 [6].

Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed a mixed performance with most contracts rising and a few declining [1] - The shipping index for Europe increased by over 7%, indicating strong demand in the shipping sector [1] - Polysilicon reached its daily limit, rising by 7%, reflecting positive trends in the solar energy industry [1] Group 2 - Industrial silicon and alumina both saw increases of nearly 3%, suggesting a stable demand in the materials sector [1] - Synthetic rubber and palm oil rose by over 2%, indicating potential growth in the commodity markets [1] - In contrast, egg prices and styrene (EB) fell by over 1%, highlighting some volatility in the agricultural and chemical sectors [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The energy and chemical sector remains weak in a volatile market. For various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc., the short - term and medium - term outlooks are mostly bearish, and the recommended strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][2]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Logic**: After the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the geopolitical premium in crude oil was quickly squeezed out. Fundamentally, it is strong in the short - term due to low inventory, but there is a strong expectation of medium - term oversupply under the OPEC+ production increase cycle [1]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a volatile state, and the hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. Today, it fluctuated within the day, and the short - cycle center of gravity is slowly moving down. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 507. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [1][3]. Styrene (EB) - **Logic**: Styrene production remains at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season. Inventory is at a neutral level, and the fundamentals are weak. There is an expectation of a significant increase in production capacity due to new plant commissioning in the medium term [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. After a large - scale gap reversal, the short - term resistance is not standard, and temporarily pay attention to 7340. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [7]. Rubber - **Logic**: In May, Thailand's exports of mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year, and China's rubber imports also increased year - on - year. Coupled with a sharp drop in the price of latex in the Thai production area, the expectation of increased supply is gradually being realized. On the demand side, the tire industry is in an overall over - supply situation, and the inventory of semi - steel tires has reached a historical high. The downstream demand expectation remains pessimistic. The reverse - seasonal inventory build - up of rubber inventory says it all [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend, and the hourly - level structure is also in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, and there was a rebound at the end of the session to test the 14100 resistance again. Pay attention to the gain or loss of the short - term resistance level. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 14100 [8]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The fundamentals of synthetic rubber are extremely weak. In addition to the weak demand expectation in the tire sector, there will be a large amount of production capacity of raw material butadiene plants put into operation this year. Currently, the operating rates of butadiene and cis - polybutadiene rubber have both reached historical highs, and there is a logic of cost collapse in the later stage [12]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today without changing the downward path. The short - term resistance level is temporarily seen at 11670. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [12]. PX - **Logic**: Profits have recovered, and some PX plants have resumed production, with the operating rate increasing. The polyester demand side is weak, but due to the ongoing destocking, the short - term fundamentals are not weak [14]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 6870. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [14]. PTA - **Logic**: There is an expectation of a reduction in polyester production in July. Due to the tight PX inventory, the PTA operating rate has declined, and the short - term fundamental contradiction is not significant [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 4840. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [16]. PP - **Logic**: The number of maintenance plants has increased, and the PP operating rate has declined. However, the newly put - into - operation production capacity has gradually increased recently, and the supply expectation is not weak. Demand is still weak during the off - season, and the short - term fundamentals are bearish [18]. - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. After reaching a new low in the small cycle, the short - term resistance level has moved down to 7140. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [18]. Methanol - **Logic**: The domestic weekly methanol operating rate is 78.1%, reaching a new high in the past five years, and the supply remains at a high level. With the end of the Israel - Iran conflict, the previously shut - down plants in Iran will quickly resume, and the import expectation is still not weak. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak during the off - season, so the fundamentals are bearish [21]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure is in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today, with weakening trading volume, and is still regarded as weak. The short - term resistance is temporarily seen at 2510. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [21]. PVC - **Logic**: The supply - side operating rate is at a historical medium level, and the supply is the same as the same period last year. The downstream terminal demand is still weak, and the operating rate remains at the lowest level in the same period. The fundamentals are regarded as bearish [23]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. The increase in positions and decline today may further confirm the end of the rebound. The resistance is temporarily seen at 4955. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 4955 [23]. EG - **Logic**: The supply - side maintenance plants will gradually resume, and the polyester operating rate on the demand side has declined. The short - term fundamentals have weakened [26]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The short - term resistance is 4345. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [26]. Plastic - **Logic**: The operating rate is lower than the same period last year, but the inventory is still high due to weak demand. The short - term fundamental contradiction is not prominent [28]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level medium - term structure and the hourly - level short - term structure are both in a downward trend. It fluctuated within the day today. The resistance is temporarily seen at 7450. The strategy is to hold short positions on the hourly cycle [28].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more gains than losses, indicating a positive sentiment among investors [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and coking coal saw increases of over 2%, while caustic soda rose nearly 2% [1] - Other commodities such as tin, methanol, ethylene benzene (EB), rubber, No. 20 rubber, coking coal, and soda ash also experienced gains exceeding 1% [1] Group 2 - On the downside, soybean meal, meal, and European shipping fell over 1%, while soybean No. 2 dropped nearly 1% [1]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw a majority of contracts closing higher, with notable increases in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and coking coal, both rising over 2% [1] - Other commodities such as caustic soda approached a 2% increase, while methanol, styrene (EB), rubber, No. 20 rubber, coking coal, and soda ash all rose over 1% [1] - On the downside, soybean meal experienced a decline of nearly 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 1% [1]