Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][6]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1064.14 billion RMB for 9M25, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of 21.03 billion RMB, compared to a net loss of 1.38 million RMB in 9M24. In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 395.92 billion RMB, up 3.1%, with a net profit of 35.34 billion RMB, an increase of 34.4% year-on-year [1][2][3]. - The company’s passenger load factor (PLF) improved to 86.9%, the highest among the three major airlines, supported by a 6.0% increase in capacity and an 8.9% increase in demand. However, unit revenue per passenger kilometer is estimated to have decreased by about 9% [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from lower oil prices, which will ease cost pressures, and the industry supply growth is anticipated to remain low, supporting an improvement in industry conditions [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 25, the company’s operating costs were 341.51 billion RMB, a 1.5% increase, while the unit ASK cost decreased by 4.3%. The gross profit margin improved by 1.4 percentage points to 13.7%, with gross profit increasing by 14.7% to 54.41 billion RMB [3][4]. - The company’s net profit for Q3 25 was 35.34 billion RMB, up 34.4% year-on-year, driven by lower costs and increased investment income [3][4]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to enter a profit cycle, with a strong passenger load factor and a favorable market share of 42% in Shanghai, supported by robust travel demand in the Yangtze River Delta [4][5]. - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 has been raised to 7.69 billion RMB, 5.93 billion RMB, and 8.02 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a significant improvement in profitability due to lower oil price expectations [5][9]. Valuation - The target price for the company's A/H shares is set at 6.35 RMB and 5.10 HKD, respectively, with an upward adjustment in the price-to-book (PB) ratio to 3.0x for A shares and 2.2x for H shares, indicating a premium due to expected improvements in return on equity (ROE) [5][6].

Group 1 - The three major Hong Kong airline stocks continue to rise, with China Eastern Airlines up 2.5%, having increased over 15% in the last three days, China Southern Airlines up nearly 2%, and Air China up about 1% [1] - On October 15, multiple airlines released their September operational data, showing year-on-year increases in passenger capacity, passenger turnover, and load factor for the three major airlines [1] - Huatai Securities believes that the positive year-on-year ticket prices are expected to continue into Q4, while the decline in oil prices is likely to reduce cost pressures for airlines, collectively improving airline profitability and increasing sector attention [1] Group 2 - The 2025 winter-spring flight season will start on October 26, with several airlines announcing new route plans, such as Huaxia Airlines adding 5 new routes and Air China opening 3 new routes, bringing new growth expectations for the industry [1]

Coal Industry - Coal prices have started to rebound, indicating a bottoming out of the market fundamentals as supply and demand improve since May 2025 [1] - Electricity consumption growth was only 3.1% from January to April 2025, significantly lower than 6.8% in 2024, but has increased to 4.4% in May, leading to a positive shift in thermal power generation [1] - Domestic coal production in May reached 400 million tons, with a notable decrease in imports, which fell by 17.7% year-on-year to 36.04 million tons [1] - The coal industry is expected to see a stable supply-demand balance in the medium term, with prices likely to rise during the summer peak [2] - As of June 20, 2025, the price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, with a slight decrease in inventory levels [3] Aviation Industry - The Chinese aviation industry is expected to see industry-wide profitability in May 2025, driven by a recovery in demand and ticket price increases [5] - Domestic ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with an estimated increase of 4% year-on-year in May, while fuel costs decreased by 19% [6] - Passenger traffic grew by 8% in May, with significant increases during the May Day holiday, indicating strong demand for family travel [6] - The summer travel season is anticipated to be optimistic, with airlines actively managing ticket sales and pricing strategies [8] - The supply of aircraft is expected to remain limited, but demand from family travel will continue to support high passenger volumes during the summer [8]

Core Viewpoint - The aviation industry is expected to see improved operating profits due to falling oil prices and a stable recovery in demand, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) projecting a net profit margin of 3.7% for 2025, up from 3.4% in 2024 and a previous forecast of 3.6% [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - The average fuel price is expected to decrease to $86 per barrel in 2025, down from $99 per barrel in 2024, leading to a reduction in annual fuel costs to $236 billion, which will account for 25.8% of total operating costs, a 9.6% decrease from $261 billion in 2024 [2] - The significant drop in oil prices since the beginning of 2025, with WTI crude futures at $60.79 and Brent crude at $63.90, both down over 15%, is anticipated to improve airline cost structures [2] - Fuel costs represent about one-third of airlines' total operating costs, and a 10% decrease in fuel prices could potentially increase profits by approximately $5 billion for major Chinese airlines based on 2024 cost estimates [2] Group 2: Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - IATA forecasts that the production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) will double to 2 million tons in 2025 from 1 million tons in 2024, although SAF currently accounts for only 0.7% of total aviation fuel usage [3] Group 3: Fuel Surcharge Adjustments - To mitigate fuel price volatility, airlines are optimizing capacity, enhancing marketing, and improving load factors to increase unit revenue [4] - The domestic aviation fuel surcharge mechanism in China allows airlines to adjust surcharges based on aviation fuel prices, with recent adjustments reducing surcharges for flights over 800 kilometers by $1 and eliminating them for shorter flights [5] Group 4: Industry Performance and Trends - The domestic aviation industry has shown signs of recovery, with major airlines like Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines reporting reduced losses in 2024 compared to 2023 [7] - The overall passenger load factor in the domestic aviation sector reached a new high of 83.3% in 2024, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, with major airlines reporting load factors around 85% [8] - The industry is expected to return to normal operations as international travel demand grows, aided by falling oil prices and the upcoming peak travel season [8]