1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production and capacity utilization rate of styrene increased month - on - month. As the Spring Festival approaches, the EPS, PS, and UPR devices are about to reduce their loads seasonally, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. The market has entered the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory pressure is not large. The integrated and non - integrated profits decreased month - on - month, but the profits are still at a relatively high level. The profits of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS are low. As the negative factors in the downstream of the industrial chain are transmitted upwards, the over - valued state of styrene is expected to be unsustainable. The EB2603 daily range is expected to be around 7340 - 7600 [2] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of styrene was 7453 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the trading volume was 356126, a decrease of 171983; the long position of the top 20 holders was 417204 hands, a decrease of 16070 hands; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 13532 hands, an increase of 2150 hands; the short position of the top 20 holders was 430736 hands, a decrease of 18220 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity was 4402 hands, an increase of 2654 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 7608 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan. The mainstream prices in the Northeast, South, North, and East China regions were 7375 yuan/ton (an increase of 75 yuan), 7825 yuan/ton (an increase of 85 yuan), 7575 yuan/ton (unchanged), and 7615 yuan/ton (an increase of 60 yuan) respectively [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The intermediate price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 696 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 773.38 US dollars/ton (unchanged), the price of ethylene FD US Gulf was 399.5 US dollars/ton (a decrease of 8.2 US dollars), the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf was 309 cents/gallon (a decrease of 3 cents), the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam was 919 US dollars/ton (an increase of 7 US dollars), the market price of pure benzene in the South China market was 6150 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of pure benzene in the East China market was 6060 yuan/ton (an increase of 25 yuan), and the market price of pure benzene in the North China market was 6060 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the national styrene inventory was 157805 tons, an increase of 1965 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 9.62 tons, a decrease of 1.24 tons; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98 percentage points; the ABS operating rate was 64.4%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The PS operating rate was 55.2%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points; the UPR operating rate was 38%, an increase of 2 percentage points; the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate was 83%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - From February 6th to 12th, styrene production increased by 1.6% month - on - month to 35.65 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.12% month - on - month to 71.08%. From January 30th to February 5th, the consumption of downstream EPS, PS, and ABS increased by 0.7% month - on - month to 26.04 tons. As of February 12th, the styrene factory inventory was 16.09 tons, an increase of 1.94% compared with last week. As of February 9th, the styrene inventory in the East China port was 9.62 tons, a decrease of 11.42% compared with last week; the styrene inventory in the South China port was 1.2 tons, unchanged compared with last week [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The view is to wait for short - selling opportunities for styrene, but the upside space may also be large, with the contract being eb2512 [5]. - In 2025, the supply pressure of pure benzene is relatively large. Domestic production will increase significantly after the resumption of refinery operations. Import volume is 970,000 tons more than last year, with a year - on - year increase of nearly 20%. The demand growth of downstream products has slowed down. Under the situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, the inventory pressure of pure benzene may still be large [5]. - The pattern of styrene in the second half of the year may be weaker than the previous period. Supply will increase with the restart of domestic and foreign plants and the commissioning of new capacities. The growth of downstream demand is weak, and the high - profit state of styrene may be difficult to sustain. Pay attention to the opportunities of basis decline and profit compression [5]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Day - to - day Description - Crude oil is running weakly overall. The profit of domestic pure benzene has been continuously compressed to a relatively low level, while the non - integrated profit of styrene has been at a high overall valuation recently [9]. Styrene Industry Chain Overview - The report shows the styrene industry chain, including the sources of benzene, production methods of styrene, and its downstream products such as EPS, PS, ABS, etc [10]. Industrial Chain Daily Data - **Toluene Spread**: Data on the spread between toluene and other products in different regions are presented, including the spread between toluene and naphtha in the Americas, and the spread between benzene and toluene in the Americas, Europe, and Asia [13][14]. - **Pure Benzene Spread and Profit**: Information on the profit of domestic pure benzene, pure benzene import profit, and various spreads of pure benzene is provided, such as the spread between Chinese CFR and South Korean FOB [13][29]. - **Other Downstream Profits of Pure Benzene**: Profits of downstream products of pure benzene like caprolactam, phenol, adipic acid, aniline, and the comprehensive profit of pure benzene downstream are shown [31]. - **Styrene Profit and Spread**: Data on non - integrated and integrated (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) profits of styrene, import profit, and various spreads are given, including the spread between South China and East China [13][32]. - **EB Inventory Situation**: Inventory data of styrene in different regions and overall inventory data are presented, including the inventory of mainstream storage areas in Jiangsu and South China, and the total inventory of styrene factories and ports [32][34]. - **EB Downstream Profit**: Profits of styrene downstream products such as EPS, GPPS, and ABS are shown [34]. Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participation roles in the styrene industry chain are given corresponding operation suggestions, including inventory management and procurement management strategies, as well as relevant hedging derivatives and ratios [6]. Attention Data - Pay attention to port inventory data on Mondays and Wednesdays, styrene factory inventory data on Thursdays, styrene downstream inventory data on Thursdays, and pure benzene industry chain operation data on Fridays [7].

戴一帆：Z0015428 周燕勤：F03129302 黄思婕：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 周度观点 南华苯乙烯产业链数据周报20250427 港口去库，基差走弱 | | 上游(纯苯) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 截至4月24日，石油苯开工率71.1%，环比+0.8%;加氢苯开工率58.2%,环比-3.1%。据评估，2025年3月韩国出口纯苯总计31.48 万吨,其中出口至中国29.02万吨。 | | | 库存 | 截至4月21日,江苏纯莱港口库存12.1万吨,较上期去库2.1万吨,环比下降14.79%。 | | | | 中游(苯乙烯) | | | 供应 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯开工率67.9%,环比+1.1% | | | 库存 | 截至2025年4月21日，江苏莱乙烯港口库存8.65万吨，较上周期去库0.91万吨，幅度一9.52%；截至2025年4月24日，中国苯乙烯 | | | | 工厂样本库存量21.63万吨,较上一周期增减少0.22万吨,环比减少1%。 | | | 利润 | 截至4月24日,苯乙烯一体化利润在-379元/吨附 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Pure Benzene**: This week, due to the influence of previously shut - down units, the operating rate of petroleum benzene continued to decline, while the operating capacity of hydrogenated benzene was greater than the shut - down capacity, leading to an increase in supply. The demand of major downstream industries showed mixed trends. The demand is expected to increase next week due to the return of some downstream units and pre - holiday stocking before May Day. However, the short - term de - stocking at East China ports does not represent an improvement in the supply - demand pattern of pure benzene. The current hidden inventory is still at a high level, and tariff contradictions are full of uncertainties. The second - quarter fundamentals of pure benzene will remain weak, and its price is more likely to fluctuate with the macro - economy and crude oil [4]. - **Styrene**: Affected by the shut - down and maintenance units last week, the operating rate of styrene continued to decline. On the demand side, among the three downstream industries (EPS, PS, ABS), the overall load of the EPS industry increased significantly due to the return of previously shut - down and reduced - load units, while the operating rates of ABS and PS fluctuated slightly. The comprehensive demand for styrene from the three industries increased. However, poor terminal demand led to continued inventory accumulation in the three industries. This week, the inventory at styrene ports dropped below 100,000 tons, and it is expected to continue de - stocking next week. The supply of styrene will gradually increase in the future, maintaining the situation of strong current reality and weak future expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream (Pure Benzene) 3.1.1 Supply - As of April 17, the operating rate of petroleum benzene was 70.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1%, and the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene was 61.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%. It is estimated that South Korea exported a total of 314,800 tons of pure benzene in March 2025, of which 290,200 tons were exported to China [4]. 3.1.2 Inventory - As of April 14, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu was 142,000 tons, an increase of 1,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [4]. 3.2 Mid - stream (Styrene) 3.2.1 Supply - As of April 17, the operating rate of styrene was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6% [4]. 3.2.2 Inventory - As of April 14, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 95,600 tons, a decrease of 23,400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 19.66%. As of April 17, 2025, the sample inventory of styrene factories in China was 218,400 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.30% [4]. 3.2.3 Profit - As of April 17, the integrated profit of styrene was around - 263 yuan/ton, and the non - integrated profit was around - 109 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Downstream (EPS, PS, ABS) 3.3.1 Supply - The operating rate of EPS was 59.07%, a month - on - month increase of 11.98%; the operating rate of PS was 60.80%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%; the operating rate of ABS was 66.99%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% [4]. 3.3.2 Inventory - The inventory of EPS enterprises was about 34,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.46%; the inventory of PS finished products was 123,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1%; the inventory of ABS finished products was 200,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% [4]. 3.3.3 Profit - The comprehensive profit of PS was around 265 yuan/ton, the profit of EPS was around 450 yuan/ton, and the profit of ABS was around 1,265 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 Price and Spread 3.4.1 Price - The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industry chain showed different degrees of changes. For example, Brent crude oil increased from 63.33 dollars/ton last week to 64.68 dollars/ton this week, and styrene FOB South Korea increased from 903 dollars/ton last week to 912 dollars/ton this week [5]. 3.4.2 Spread - The spreads of pure benzene and styrene paper - goods also changed. For example, the spread of pure benzene paper - goods spot decreased from 6365 yuan/ton on April 11 to 6230 yuan/ton on April 18, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Production Plan and Maintenance 3.5.1 Production Plan - From 2024 to 2025, there were new device production plans in the pure benzene and styrene industries. For example, in 2025, the new production capacity of pure benzene was 1.66 million tons, and the new production capacity of styrene was 1.57 million tons [96][197]. 3.5.2 Maintenance - There were many domestic and foreign pure benzene and styrene device maintenance situations. For example, Shanghai Petrochemical's small ethylene unit has been under long - term maintenance since September 25, 2023, and Ningbo Keyuan's styrene unit has been under cost - based maintenance since May 7, 2021 [97][198]. 3.6 Terminal Demand - In April, the refrigerator production plan was 8.09 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.7%; the production plan of household air - conditioners was 24 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the production plan of washing machines was 7.4 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [251][257][263].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downward space of styrene is limited, with support at the price level of 7,600. The contract is eb2505. Looking ahead, styrene may show a pattern of having support below and pressure above. The support lies in the fact that as the maintenance season of pure benzene and styrene approaches, styrene inventory will gradually be depleted. The de - stocking degree of pure benzene is less than that of styrene, showing a mild de - stocking trend, so the price support in the second quarter is relatively strong. The upper - side pressure comes from the limited ability of the end - users to bear high prices. One should focus on the downstream profits of pure benzene and styrene. The price range is estimated to be between 7,600 and 8,150 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1产业链操作建议 - For refiners with high inventory and worried about styrene price decline, they can short - hedge a small proportion of unsold EB inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent unexpected risks [6]. - For traders building inventory and seeking to buy styrene at low prices, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For traders with inventory and seeking to sell styrene at high prices, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. - For end - customers purchasing styrene and worried about price increase, they can buy call options (eb2505 - C - 8600) according to the procurement plan at an entry price of 77 [6]. - For end - customers with inventory and worried about price decline, they can short - hedge a part of the inventory using eb2505 at an entry price of 9,600 to prevent short - term price decline [6]. 3.2日度描述 - Crude oil is generally running strongly. The domestic profit of pure benzene has recently continued to recover to a seasonal high, while the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently at a relatively low valuation level [8]. 3.3产业链每日数据 - **Price Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the price of naphtha CFR Japan decreased by 1 to 645.00; the price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia remained unchanged at 855.00; the price of toluene CFR China increased by 12 to 747.00; the price of toluene FOB Korea increased by 4 to 730.00; the price of pure benzene China CFR increased by 17 to 853.00; the price of pure benzene Korea FOB increased by 12 to 832.00; the price of pure benzene in East China increased by 145 to 6,760.00; the spot price of styrene in East China increased by 146 to 8,153.00; the EPS price remained unchanged at 8,950.00; the PS price remained unchanged at 8,800.00; the ABS price remained unchanged at 11,275; the EB outer - disk US dollar price in China CFR decreased by 3 to 975.00; the US Gulf FOB remained unchanged at 1,100.00; the Korea FOB decreased by 3 to 965.00; the Rotterdam FOB increased by 47 to 1,264.00; the China Taiwan CFR remained unchanged at 1,006.50 [10]. - **Profit Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the domestic profit of pure benzene increased by 152.9 to 532.54; the import profit of pure benzene increased by 1.4 to - 331.18; the non - integrated profit of styrene increased by 31.2 to - 161.72; the integrated profit of styrene (ethylbenzene dehydrogenation) increased by 164.0 to 714.05; the import profit of styrene increased by 170.0 to - 106.69; the EPS profit increased by 73.73 to - 203; the PS profit decreased by 146.0 to - 353.00; the ABS profit decreased by 119.9 to 527.55 [21]. - **Spread and Basis Data**: On April 1, 2025, compared with March 31, 2025, the pure benzene paper - cargo spread decreased by 5 to 0.00; the EB04 closing price increased by 109 to 8,029.00; the EB05 closing price increased by 146 to 7,983.00; the EB4 - 5 spread decreased by 37 to 46.00; the EB04 East China basis increased by 37 to 124.00 [30].