证券研究报告 | 策略研究 gszqdatemark 2025 08 25 年 月 日 投资策略 一、策略专题：近年 9 月交易线索及其相对 8 月变化 2.1 A 股复盘：科技股涨势不止，沪指突破 3800 点关口 上周报告《历史上融资盘快速流入如何演绎？》的结论显示，历史上三次 融资盘快速流入均在 2~3 个月后出现速度放缓，本轮融资盘快速流入 6 月 开始，9 月初可能是重要时点，此外，9 月 3 日阅兵也可能引发市场变盘， 站在当前时点需要做好对未来的应对。基于上述思路，本文重点对近年 9 月交易线索及其相对 8 月变化进行梳理和分析。 本周 A股市场加速上行，万得全 A、上证指数分别累计上涨 3.87%、3.49%， 涨幅较上周进一步扩大，沪指接连突破 3700、3800 点关口，同时成交量 能进一步提升，周一成交额超 2.8 万亿，周二至周四成交额在 2.5 万亿上 下波动。本周科技股涨势不止，是指数强势上涨的重要驱动，科创 50 指 数大涨 13.31%、表现一骑绝尘，风格层面看科技 TMT 板块 5.54%的涨幅 明显强于其他风格，行业层面看本周三大领涨行业分别为通信、电子、计 作者 梳理 2 ...

Group 1: Financing and Market Overview - The report discusses the historical performance of rapid inflows into financing accounts, analyzing the market trends and leading sectors during such periods [3] - A review of the A-share market indicates a bullish investor sentiment, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3700 points [3] - Global equity markets experienced a comprehensive rise, with Asian markets leading the gains [3] Group 2: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market is currently in a high valuation zone, with a pricing deviation indicator of 5.42%, placing it in the 99.9th percentile since 2018 [3] - Historical data shows that when convertible bonds are in the high valuation zone, the average return over the next six months is -2.9%, with a win rate of 0% [3] Group 3: Fixed Income and Economic Indicators - The basic frequency index for the economy stands at 127.2 points, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4 points [5] - The industrial production frequency index is at 126.4, with a year-on-year increase of 5.1 points [5] - The commodity housing sales frequency index is at 43.3, showing a year-on-year decline of 6.4 points [5] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights Xtep International (01368.HK) - Xtep International reported a 7.1% increase in revenue for H1 2025, reaching 6.84 billion yuan, and a 21.5% increase in net profit to 910 million yuan [7][8] - The company maintains a stable dividend payout ratio of 50% [8] - Forecasts suggest a revenue growth of approximately 7% and a net profit growth of over 10% for 2025 [8] Lenovo Group (00992.HK) - Lenovo's Q1 25-26 fiscal year results exceeded expectations, with significant growth in PC and mobile segments [9] - Projected revenues for the next three fiscal years are $759 billion, $819 billion, and $893 billion, with corresponding net profits of $16.5 billion, $19.6 billion, and $24.0 billion [9] Nanwei Medical (688029.SH) - Nanwei Medical achieved a revenue of 1.565 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 17.36% year-on-year growth, with a net profit of 363 million yuan, up 17.04% [11][12] - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth of 21.3%, 19.5%, and 19.1% over the next three years [12]

Group 1 - The report identifies four significant instances of rapid inflow of financing in A-shares from 2014 to present, with the first instance (2014.8~2015.5) being the longest and largest in scale, but with limited reference value due to its unique historical context [1][15][17] - The second instance of rapid inflow (2019.2~2019.4) was primarily driven by improvements in the macroeconomic environment, including a temporary easing of US-China trade tensions and monetary policy easing [1][17] - The third instance (2020.6~2020.8) was attributed to the stabilization of overseas equity markets and improved profit expectations for A-share companies following global economic disruptions [2][17] - The fourth instance (2024.9~2024.11) was linked to a shift in macroeconomic policy aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods, supported by a series of financial policies [2][17] Group 2 - The report notes that after a period of rapid inflow, the momentum may weaken, typically observed 2-3 months post-inflow, reflecting a potential cooling of investor sentiment [3][18] - It highlights that macro policy implementation or shifts, along with a lack of unexpected improvements in fundamentals, could lead to a slowdown in financing inflows or even market corrections [3][18] - The current financing heat in A-shares is suggested to have returned to an overheated state, as indicated by financing balance and trading volume metrics surpassing historical averages [5][23][27] Group 3 - The report analyzes the leading sectors during the rapid inflow periods from 2019 to 2024, noting that the rotation of leading sectors occurs quickly, with varying numbers of sectors consistently performing well across different inflow periods [6][32] - It distinguishes between sectors driven by fundamental factors and those influenced by thematic catalysts, with examples including feed and digital media in 2019, consumer electronics and photovoltaic equipment in 2020, and financial IT and Huawei supply chain in 2024 [6][32] - The report concludes that sectors driven by fundamentals are more likely to continue rising after a slowdown in financing inflows, while those driven by themes may face higher chances of correction [6][33]