Group 1 - The report identifies four significant instances of rapid inflow of financing in A-shares from 2014 to present, with the first instance (2014.8~2015.5) being the longest and largest in scale, but with limited reference value due to its unique historical context [1][15][17] - The second instance of rapid inflow (2019.2~2019.4) was primarily driven by improvements in the macroeconomic environment, including a temporary easing of US-China trade tensions and monetary policy easing [1][17] - The third instance (2020.6~2020.8) was attributed to the stabilization of overseas equity markets and improved profit expectations for A-share companies following global economic disruptions [2][17] - The fourth instance (2024.9~2024.11) was linked to a shift in macroeconomic policy aimed at boosting consumption and improving livelihoods, supported by a series of financial policies [2][17] Group 2 - The report notes that after a period of rapid inflow, the momentum may weaken, typically observed 2-3 months post-inflow, reflecting a potential cooling of investor sentiment [3][18] - It highlights that macro policy implementation or shifts, along with a lack of unexpected improvements in fundamentals, could lead to a slowdown in financing inflows or even market corrections [3][18] - The current financing heat in A-shares is suggested to have returned to an overheated state, as indicated by financing balance and trading volume metrics surpassing historical averages [5][23][27] Group 3 - The report analyzes the leading sectors during the rapid inflow periods from 2019 to 2024, noting that the rotation of leading sectors occurs quickly, with varying numbers of sectors consistently performing well across different inflow periods [6][32] - It distinguishes between sectors driven by fundamental factors and those influenced by thematic catalysts, with examples including feed and digital media in 2019, consumer electronics and photovoltaic equipment in 2020, and financial IT and Huawei supply chain in 2024 [6][32] - The report concludes that sectors driven by fundamentals are more likely to continue rising after a slowdown in financing inflows, while those driven by themes may face higher chances of correction [6][33]

Macroeconomic Background - The A-share market has gradually emerged from a period of volatility since 2025, showing a relatively stable upward trend supported by domestic economic resilience and external environmental changes [1][3] - Global trade uncertainties have increased, but the impact of tariff shocks has not led to systemic risks, as domestic investors have shown confidence in China's economic fundamentals [1][3] - The domestic economy is undergoing a structural transformation, with manufacturing upgrades and capital market reforms providing new growth opportunities [3][4] Funding Logic - As of mid-2025, Chinese households have accumulated significant excess savings, with household deposits exceeding the trend line from 2011 to 2019 by over 50 trillion yuan, indicating a large potential fund pool for the stock market [4][5] - The ratio of A-share total market value to household deposits is at a historical low, suggesting that the transition of household funds into the market is just beginning [5][6] Institutional and Reform Dynamics - The direction of capital market reforms since 2024 has become clearer, focusing on "increasing investor returns" through improved dividend policies and optimized delisting systems [7][8] - Institutional reforms are reshaping perceptions of Chinese assets, leading to a decrease in risk premiums and creating long-term space for valuation expansion [7][8] Industry Allocation New Growth Directions - The AI industry is entering a phase of accelerated industrialization, with domestic supply chains rapidly innovating and replacing foreign counterparts [9] - The manufacturing upgrade trend is expected to drive the adoption of industrial and service robots, supported by policy emphasis on new productivity [10] - Solid-state batteries are anticipated to be a breakthrough in electric vehicles, with key domestic companies accelerating R&D [12] - The pharmaceutical sector is benefiting from aging populations and rising health demands, with innovative drugs showing growth potential [13] Financial Sector - The financial sector is poised to benefit from increased market activity as household funds enter the market [14] - Brokerage firms will see enhanced trading activity and expansion in investment banking services [15] - Insurance companies will experience improved returns due to favorable interest rates and a recovering equity market [16] - Banks remain attractive for defensive allocations due to stable dividends and low valuations [17] Thematic Opportunities - The military industry is expected to grow due to geopolitical uncertainties, with a focus on self-sufficiency in critical technologies [18] - Emerging industries like drones and general aviation are gaining traction with significant policy support [19] - Marine technology sectors are projected to grow under the "blue economy" strategy [20] Defensive Allocation - High-dividend assets are becoming preferred defensive options in a declining risk-free interest rate environment, with sectors like coal, oil, and utilities offering attractive yields [21] Conclusion - The mid-term outlook for the A-share market remains positive, supported by economic resilience, household funding potential, and institutional reforms [26] - A virtuous cycle is expected as household deposits gradually shift to the stock market, leading to steady index growth and low volatility [26] - The market is anticipated to present structural opportunities across various sectors, making it an optimal time for long-term investors to gradually position themselves [26]

本轮A股公司密集赴港IPO是出海战略、制度便利和港股流动性改善三重力量助推。优质核心资产在港股正式 交易后，短期会活跃对应A股的交易，部分核心资产的定价权可能会逐步南移。这个现象的背后是港股市场的 吸引力在系统性提升，一是资产供给结构和质量在持续提高，二是流动性在海外资金回流的背景下趋势性改 善，从历史上看，港交所每一轮制度的改革突破都带来了顺应时代特征的牛市。未来，更多优质龙头赴港上市 可能成为A股市场风格重新转向核心资产的催化剂。 申万宏源：震荡市中的短期调整 我们维持A股二季度是中枢偏高的震荡市判断不变，短期市场小波段调整。核心逻辑在于，震荡区间上限：抢 出口支撑二季度经济韧性，但无法外推；震荡区间下限：宽货币与稳定资本市场直接关联，平准基金兼顾舆情 管理。短期来看，宏观上，主要变化是美国不确定性重新增加，压制风险偏好。结构上，科技尚未摆脱中期调 整波段，新消费向外扩散空间有限。小微盘行情+博弈公募向业绩比较基准靠拢行情告一段落。 A股中期重回结构牛，仍依赖于科技产业趋势突破。短期科技尚未摆脱调整波段。狭义的新消费是景气延续， 但行情向外扩散短期也有阻力。短期继续看好医药(CXO和创新药)和贵金属景气延 ...