1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

石脑油产业链周度报告 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 裂解-甲苯 脑油-芳烃 汽油-调油估值 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 总结 1 本周石脑油观点：乙烯或震荡筑底 石脑油维持窄幅震荡 | | 石脑油 | 乙烯 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 中东一季度出口季节性下滑预计2月后逐步抬升，俄罗斯出口超预 | 主营炼厂开工继续抬升，民营开工预计下周提升，MTO开工环比下滑，但往 | | | 期，小幅调增后期出口预期，E/W价差持稳，美国套利物流因稀释 | 下空间有限，整体上游供应本周环比小幅增加，供应端预期继续抬升空间相 | | | 剂需求减少，整体亚洲供应小幅缩减 | 对有限 | | 需求 | 亚洲乙烯裂解本周利润小幅亏损维持，丙烷估值抬升后替代经济性下滑，裂解 | 本周下游衍生品开工开始提升，同时利润整体继续修复，若该利润继续维持 | | | 装置失去LPG原料补充经济性，26年一季度这部分需求将转回石脑油， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Naphtha and Ethylene - The contradiction of naphtha in the second half of the year lies in the dual increase of supply and demand. The supply side is affected by OPEC's production increase and new refining capacity, while the demand side is driven by new cracking devices. Near - term ethylene cracking profit is greatly influenced by crude oil. Ethylene is expected to shift from a short - term tight supply - demand situation to an oversupply in the fourth quarter [9]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price weakness of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of the fuel oil market is generally loose, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to increase. Domestic low - sulfur fuel oil prices are also under pressure, but the new export quota may support the price [160]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Naphtha Part - **Supply**: With OPEC's production increase, the Middle East export center has risen. Russian exports are expected to remain stable, and the arbitrage cargo in Asia will decrease after September [9]. - **Demand**: Weekly Northeast Asian naphtha imports have decreased, but ethylene cracking profit has rebounded, and propane cracking economy has weakened, which is beneficial to the increase of naphtha demand [9]. - **Price and Valuation**: Asian gasoline - naphtha spread is 64 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), European gasoline - naphtha spread is 143 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and Asian aromatics reforming profit is 27 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton) [9]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply side may see a slight reduction in arbitrage cargo, and the demand side is expected to increase. The market is expected to continue de - stocking in the long term [91]. Ethylene Part - **Global Capacity and Logistics**: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China. Asia is the main pricing area, with clear import and export routes [107][109]. - **Price and Profit**: This week, the domestic ethylene price rebounded, and the profit of downstream derivatives was compressed. Overseas ethylene derivatives' profit was in a low - level shock [110][116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of domestic ethylene increased this week. The supply - demand relationship in September will tighten, but it will gradually ease after October [135]. Olefin - Aromatic Association - **Aromatic Relative Valuation**: This week, with the significant decline of crude oil, the relative valuation of downstream aromatics to upstream has rebounded. Overseas aromatic valuation has increased, and the spread with Asia has slightly widened [144][148]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: The global fuel oil supply is generally loose. Middle East exports are expected to increase in August, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to rise [160]. - **Demand**: The port bunkering demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in China is weak, and the demand in the Singapore market is also sluggish [160]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the spot digestion is difficult [160]. - **Price and Spread**: The price of fuel oil continues to decline, and the LU's previous strength has further weakened. The FU and LU's near - term contango structure will continue [160].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG 聚酯芳烃 02 1、PTA,MEG,短纤 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 01 03 05 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年7月5日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of FEI at the bottom rebounded significantly, with high - level exports from the Middle East and medium - low - level exports from Russia. The East - West arbitrage logistics remained stable, and the overall supply of naphtha was stable. The impact of US naphtha on the Asian market was limited. The demand for naphtha decreased due to the increased propane procurement in Japan and South Korea, and the FEI - MOPJ spread rebounded significantly. The cracking profit of naphtha dropped to an extremely low level year - on - year, and the negative feedback of cracking units was expected to be delayed [8]. - For ethylene, whether the tariff is maintained or not, it has a limited impact on the domestic and Asian ethylene markets. The upstream and downstream are basically matched, and the expected supply - demand reduction of affected units can be compensated by imports to some extent. The actual gap will be balanced by the negative feedback of downstream demand [8]. - In the case of no tariff impact, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet shows a structural gap. After the partial restart of Southeast Asian units this week, the balance sheet tightened slightly in April, but the overall gap is still equivalent to the maintenance volume of 1 - 2 ethylene cracking units. After the US dollar price of ethylene actively declined this week and the profit was compressed by the strengthening of naphtha, the future dynamic balance is expected to deteriorate [86]. - Under the continuous impact of tariffs, the demand for Asian naphtha will increase in the near - term. However, due to the improved economic efficiency of propane for Japanese and South Korean factories, the degree of propane substitution in these factories will gradually increase. Eventually, the market will return to the supply - demand situation of cracking units [87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Naphtha Part 3.1.1 Price and Spot - The price of naphtha in Asia strengthened this week, and the cracking profit dropped to a year - on - year low. The spot market was tight at the end of the month, but the willingness of factories to stock up in the future decreased due to the rapid decline in ethylene cracking profit [10][11]. - The naphtha premium fluctuated this week, and the monthly spread structure changed little. The global naphtha price difference showed that the European support was relatively strong, and the East - West spread was repaired month - on - month [12][16]. - The overseas gasoline cracking spread rebounded this week, showing seasonal characteristics. The EIA data was optimistic, with a significant reduction in refined oil inventories in the US and a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. The European inventory remained high [18][21]. - The export quota of refined oil in 2025 changed, with a decrease in general trade quota and an increase in processing trade quota. The overall export plan of refined oil in April remained stable, with low exports of gasoline and diesel and high exports of jet fuel [26]. - The price difference between gasoline and naphtha in Europe and the US remained stable, and both gasoline and naphtha strengthened this week [27]. 3.1.2 Valuation - The global naphtha cracking spread strengthened this week, but the downstream profit weakened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the decline after the end of the pricing cycle [41]. - The Asian ethylene cracking profit declined significantly this week, and the FEI cracking profit declined year - on - year, but the substitution economy of Japan and South Korea was still better than that of naphtha [47]. - The Asian aromatics profit declined rapidly, while the change in Europe and the US was not significant month - on - month [59]. - The overseas refinery profit rebounded this week, while the domestic refinery profit continued to decline [64]. 3.1.3 Supply and Demand Balance - In terms of supply, the exports from major regions such as the Middle East, Russia, and the US changed little this week. The global CDU maintenance changed little week - on - week [66][67]. - In terms of demand, the substitution economy of propane raw materials in Japan and South Korea increased, and the demand for naphtha from CDU decreased [74]. - In the balance sheet, under the assumption of tariff mitigation, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet has a structural gap; under the assumption of continuous tariffs, the near - term demand for Asian naphtha will increase, but the substitution of propane will gradually increase [86][87]. 3.2 Ethylene Part 3.2.1 Global Capacity and Logistics - In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China, while the capacity in other regions remains basically unchanged [107]. - Asia is the main pricing area. Japan and South Korea are exporters in Asia, while China and Chinese Taipei are importers. The US exports ethylene to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and Europe has a net export of 3 - 4 million tons [109]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The price of ethylene in the domestic market remained stable this week, and the import profit increased. The downstream profit of ethylene derivatives was differentiated, with the profit of ethylene glycol and styrene weakening, while the profit of plastics remained stable and the profit of ethylene oxide remained high [110][115]. - The overseas downstream profit of ethylene derivatives remained at a relatively high level, and the overall chemical profit in Europe and the US was healthy [122]. 3.2.3 Supply and Demand Balance - This week, the maintenance of Asian ethylene cracking units changed little. Attention should be paid to the possible delayed restart and additional maintenance of Asian cracking units in May after the consumption of cheap raw materials and in a loss state [75][130]. - The domestic downstream production capacity of ethylene will increase in 2025, with significant growth in the production capacity of plastics, ethylene glycol, styrene, and other products [131].