国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG 聚酯芳烃 02 1、PTA,MEG,短纤 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 01 03 05 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年7月5日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of FEI at the bottom rebounded significantly, with high - level exports from the Middle East and medium - low - level exports from Russia. The East - West arbitrage logistics remained stable, and the overall supply of naphtha was stable. The impact of US naphtha on the Asian market was limited. The demand for naphtha decreased due to the increased propane procurement in Japan and South Korea, and the FEI - MOPJ spread rebounded significantly. The cracking profit of naphtha dropped to an extremely low level year - on - year, and the negative feedback of cracking units was expected to be delayed [8]. - For ethylene, whether the tariff is maintained or not, it has a limited impact on the domestic and Asian ethylene markets. The upstream and downstream are basically matched, and the expected supply - demand reduction of affected units can be compensated by imports to some extent. The actual gap will be balanced by the negative feedback of downstream demand [8]. - In the case of no tariff impact, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet shows a structural gap. After the partial restart of Southeast Asian units this week, the balance sheet tightened slightly in April, but the overall gap is still equivalent to the maintenance volume of 1 - 2 ethylene cracking units. After the US dollar price of ethylene actively declined this week and the profit was compressed by the strengthening of naphtha, the future dynamic balance is expected to deteriorate [86]. - Under the continuous impact of tariffs, the demand for Asian naphtha will increase in the near - term. However, due to the improved economic efficiency of propane for Japanese and South Korean factories, the degree of propane substitution in these factories will gradually increase. Eventually, the market will return to the supply - demand situation of cracking units [87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Naphtha Part 3.1.1 Price and Spot - The price of naphtha in Asia strengthened this week, and the cracking profit dropped to a year - on - year low. The spot market was tight at the end of the month, but the willingness of factories to stock up in the future decreased due to the rapid decline in ethylene cracking profit [10][11]. - The naphtha premium fluctuated this week, and the monthly spread structure changed little. The global naphtha price difference showed that the European support was relatively strong, and the East - West spread was repaired month - on - month [12][16]. - The overseas gasoline cracking spread rebounded this week, showing seasonal characteristics. The EIA data was optimistic, with a significant reduction in refined oil inventories in the US and a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. The European inventory remained high [18][21]. - The export quota of refined oil in 2025 changed, with a decrease in general trade quota and an increase in processing trade quota. The overall export plan of refined oil in April remained stable, with low exports of gasoline and diesel and high exports of jet fuel [26]. - The price difference between gasoline and naphtha in Europe and the US remained stable, and both gasoline and naphtha strengthened this week [27]. 3.1.2 Valuation - The global naphtha cracking spread strengthened this week, but the downstream profit weakened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the decline after the end of the pricing cycle [41]. - The Asian ethylene cracking profit declined significantly this week, and the FEI cracking profit declined year - on - year, but the substitution economy of Japan and South Korea was still better than that of naphtha [47]. - The Asian aromatics profit declined rapidly, while the change in Europe and the US was not significant month - on - month [59]. - The overseas refinery profit rebounded this week, while the domestic refinery profit continued to decline [64]. 3.1.3 Supply and Demand Balance - In terms of supply, the exports from major regions such as the Middle East, Russia, and the US changed little this week. The global CDU maintenance changed little week - on - week [66][67]. - In terms of demand, the substitution economy of propane raw materials in Japan and South Korea increased, and the demand for naphtha from CDU decreased [74]. - In the balance sheet, under the assumption of tariff mitigation, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet has a structural gap; under the assumption of continuous tariffs, the near - term demand for Asian naphtha will increase, but the substitution of propane will gradually increase [86][87]. 3.2 Ethylene Part 3.2.1 Global Capacity and Logistics - In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China, while the capacity in other regions remains basically unchanged [107]. - Asia is the main pricing area. Japan and South Korea are exporters in Asia, while China and Chinese Taipei are importers. The US exports ethylene to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and Europe has a net export of 3 - 4 million tons [109]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The price of ethylene in the domestic market remained stable this week, and the import profit increased. The downstream profit of ethylene derivatives was differentiated, with the profit of ethylene glycol and styrene weakening, while the profit of plastics remained stable and the profit of ethylene oxide remained high [110][115]. - The overseas downstream profit of ethylene derivatives remained at a relatively high level, and the overall chemical profit in Europe and the US was healthy [122]. 3.2.3 Supply and Demand Balance - This week, the maintenance of Asian ethylene cracking units changed little. Attention should be paid to the possible delayed restart and additional maintenance of Asian cracking units in May after the consumption of cheap raw materials and in a loss state [75][130]. - The domestic downstream production capacity of ethylene will increase in 2025, with significant growth in the production capacity of plastics, ethylene glycol, styrene, and other products [131].