1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6777, with a daily decline of 2.04%, the trading volume was 635,809, and the position decreased by 6,547 [1]. - **Basis and Spread Changes**: The basis of the 05 contract was - 147 yesterday, compared with - 188 the day before; the spread between the 05 - 09 contracts was - 51 yesterday, compared with - 57 the day before [1]. - **Important Spot Prices**: The spot price of North China was 6,630 yuan/ton yesterday, down from 6,730 yuan/ton the day before; East China was 6,780 yuan/ton, down from 6,880 yuan/ton; South China was 6,790 yuan/ton, down from 6,950 yuan/ton [1]. Spot News - The futures price has corrected, the upstream's previous inventory has been transferred, enterprise quotes remain stable, and agency orders and mid - stream sales are weak. Yulong Petrochemical has resumed production of 7042, and the standard product production schedule is neutral [1]. - Downstream product profits are compressed, and there is resistance to high prices. The foreign - market offer has increased, and there is a shortage of LL supplies. The long - term import profit has opened, but the import volume of importers has not increased significantly. Downstream factories are mostly cautiously waiting and watching. It is expected that the intensifying geopolitical situation may support the strength of the US - dollar market [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price has fallen and stabilized, the Middle - East geopolitical situation is uncertain, the ethylene monomer segment is weak, and the PE ethylene process profit has been repaired [2]. - The downstream agricultural film has weakened recently, while the packaging film industry maintains rigid demand [2]. - The supply side sees BASF Zhanjiang gradually starting trial production, the maintenance plan in February has decreased compared to the previous month, some FD has switched back to standard products. After the pre - Spring Festival inventory transfer, the fundamental contradictions are not significant for the time being. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the festival and the destocking slope after the festival [2]. Trend Intensity - The LLDPE trend intensity is - 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The view on naphtha this week is that ethylene may oscillate to form a bottom, and naphtha will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. The supply of naphtha in the Middle East is expected to decline seasonally in the first quarter and gradually increase after February. Russian exports exceed expectations, and the subsequent export expectations are slightly adjusted upwards. The overall Asian supply is slightly reduced. The demand for naphtha in Asia has strengthened slightly, but the increase is limited. In the short - term, naphtha will continue to be in a game between Asian ethylene suppression and structural tightness, with limited downward space in the short - term, and the best upward situation in the medium - to - long - term has passed [5]. - For ethylene, although the monomer ethylene cracking is currently in a loss state, if downstream derivatives are included, most cracking units are no longer in a loss. The short - term trading of ethylene surplus is relatively sufficient, and subsequent trading may improve dynamically. The cost support remains relatively strong, and the weak reality of ethylene is expected to improve [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Naphtha Part - **Price and Spot Summary**: The prices of Brent, MOPJ Premium, Japanese naphtha, and other related products have changed. The Asian ethylene cracking profit is - 33 dollars/ton (- 15 dollars/ton), and the Asian gasoline - naphtha is 17 dollars/ton (- 5 dollars/ton) [8]. - **Supply**: The March arbitrage arrival volume is expected to decrease significantly, leading to a supply shortage in the Asian market in the first and second half of March. Although the cracking unit operating load is low, naphtha cracking demand still exists due to better cash flow than LPG, and LPG has not yet formed a substitution pressure on naphtha [9]. - **Global Naphtha Spread Comparison**: This week, the gasoline cracking in Europe and the United States remained stable, the gasoline blending demand in Europe and the United States was weak, and the East - West spread oscillated. Asian naphtha oscillated in a narrow range, and there was no direct driver to close the East - West spread. The naphtha in the United States strengthened due to the demand for blending heavy oil, and the price centers in Europe and the United States increased [14]. - **Overseas Gasoline Situation**: The global gasoline cracking spread was weak this week and was basically at a year - on - year low. The gasoline inventories in Europe and the United States showed an inflection point, and the gasoline inventory in the United States remained at a historical high, with some pressure on the carry - over inventory before the 2026 peak season [16][22]. - **Gasoline - Naphtha Spread**: The near - end gasoline - naphtha spread was globally differentiated. The spread in Asia fell to a relatively low year - on - year position, while the spreads in Europe and the United States remained unchanged this week. The premium of heavy naphtha continued to rise [27]. - **Naphtha Downstream Price**: This week, the overall aromatic hydrocarbon prices continued to rise, the olefin end continued to be differentiated, propylene and butadiene continued to strengthen month - on - month, the ethylene end price was under pressure, and the monomer ethylene cracking profit loss increased [40]. - **Global Naphtha Cracking**: This week, the global naphtha cracking weakened month - on - month under the impact of crude oil, but downstream chemical products still provided profits, and the short - term downward space for naphtha was limited [42]. - **Global Cracking Profit**: This week, crude oil strengthened rapidly, the domestic ethylene stabilized, the US - dollar ethylene rebounded, the monomer ethylene cracking profit weakened again this week, and the propane feed profit weakened more significantly [48]. - **Asian Propane Situation**: This week, due to the cold wave in Europe and the United States, heavy fog in the United States, and potential risks in the Middle East situation, the propane price strengthened significantly, the Asian arrival cost was at a high level, and the downstream PDH operating rate weakened significantly to a low level [54]. - **Global Reforming Profit**: This week, the overall reforming profit declined, the Asian gasoline - type reforming profit continued to decline, the refinery profit pressure became more prominent, and the aromatic hydrocarbon reforming profit also declined this week. Currently, aromatic - type reforming is still a better choice for refineries [56]. - **Balance Sheet - Supply**: The supply from the Middle East is expected to decline seasonally in January and then gradually recover. Russian exports are expected to increase and then stabilize at around 750,000 tons per month. The arbitrage volume from Northwest Europe and Africa has decreased, while the arbitrage volume from the United States has increased [62]. - **Balance Sheet - Demand**: The import demand in China has increased month - on - month, and there may be an upward expectation in the future. The naphtha economy is similar to that of LPG this week, and the LPG substitution feed for Asian cracking units is expected to continue to decrease [81]. 3.2 Ethylene Part - **Global Ethylene Capacity Distribution**: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity was mainly concentrated in China, and the ethylene cracking capacity in other regions of the world remained basically unchanged [99]. - **Global Ethylene Logistics**: Asia is the main pricing area. Asian exports mainly come from Japan and South Korea, and Asian imports are mainly from China and Chinese Taipei. The North American route is from the United States to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and the European route has regional imports and exports with a net export of 30,000 - 40,000 tons [101]. - **Ethylene Price and Spot Description**: The prices of Sinopec ethylene, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other related products have changed. The ethylene cracking profit weakened this week, and the profit was all transferred to downstream derivatives [102][105]. - **Ethylene Arbitrage Window**: This week, the Asian US - dollar ethylene price remained stable, the domestic market rebounded slightly, the prices of derivatives continued to be strong, and most of them started to make profits. The Northeast Asia - US Gulf spread remained at a high level, and the arbitrage window was close to opening [105]. - **Ethylene Downstream Profit (External Procurement)**: This week, the domestic ethylene price remained stable month - on - month, the profits of domestic derivatives increased first and then decreased during the week. The styrene profit was at a five - year high, and the plastic profit recovered significantly this week [106]. - **Overseas Derivatives External Procurement Profit**: This week, the European ethylene price declined significantly, and the profits of downstream chemical products were compressed. In the United States, the profits of overall chemical products increased due to the cold wave [109]. - **Ethylene Balance Sheet - Supply**: In 2026, the main contradiction in Northeast Asia lies in the elimination of ethylene cracking units in Japan and South Korea, and the normal maintenance volume has increased. The maintenance plan in China is still relatively small [117]. - **Ethylene Domestic and Overseas Downstream Production**: The production time in 2026 is differentiated, and there is almost no production before September [119]. - **Ethylene Domestic Balance Sheet - Monthly**: This week, the upstream supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand decreased slightly. The ethylene supply - demand pressure was relieved but still in a state of surplus. In the future, the downstream operating rate is expected to increase under the support of profits, but the ethylene market is still relatively loose [123]. - **Ethylene Asian Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand situation in Asia has improved month - on - month, but ethylene is still in a state of surplus in the first half of 2026 [130]. 3.3 Olefin - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Impact - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Relative Valuation**: This week, the valuation of aromatic hydrocarbons increased first and then decreased, and the overall valuation remained relatively high. The valuation of overseas aromatic hydrocarbons relative to gasoline weakened month - on - month, and the overseas gasoline price fell to a relatively low year - on - year position [135][136]. - **Global Octane Number**: The octane number in the United States changed little, and the octane number in Asia weakened month - on - month this week. The toluene price in Asia weakened from a high level, the disproportionation profit was compressed month - on - month, and the disproportionation profit in the United States remained at a high level [138]. - **Blending Oil Cost - Effectiveness**: The MTBE - toluene spread continued to decline this week, and the toluene valuation declined. The MX - toluene spread continued to weaken to a year - on - year low, indicating that the aromatic hydrocarbon market is still in a state of surplus [146]. - **South Korean Production and Inventory**: In November, the overall output of South Korean refineries decreased, and the aromatic hydrocarbon inventory decreased month - on - month [147].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report Naphtha and Ethylene - The contradiction of naphtha in the second half of the year lies in the dual increase of supply and demand. The supply side is affected by OPEC's production increase and new refining capacity, while the demand side is driven by new cracking devices. Near - term ethylene cracking profit is greatly influenced by crude oil. Ethylene is expected to shift from a short - term tight supply - demand situation to an oversupply in the fourth quarter [9]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price weakness of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of the fuel oil market is generally loose, and the low - sulfur fuel oil supply in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to increase. Domestic low - sulfur fuel oil prices are also under pressure, but the new export quota may support the price [160]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Naphtha Part - **Supply**: With OPEC's production increase, the Middle East export center has risen. Russian exports are expected to remain stable, and the arbitrage cargo in Asia will decrease after September [9]. - **Demand**: Weekly Northeast Asian naphtha imports have decreased, but ethylene cracking profit has rebounded, and propane cracking economy has weakened, which is beneficial to the increase of naphtha demand [9]. - **Price and Valuation**: Asian gasoline - naphtha spread is 64 dollars/ton (+6 dollars/ton), European gasoline - naphtha spread is 143 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and Asian aromatics reforming profit is 27 dollars/ton (+11 dollars/ton) [9]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply side may see a slight reduction in arbitrage cargo, and the demand side is expected to increase. The market is expected to continue de - stocking in the long term [91]. Ethylene Part - **Global Capacity and Logistics**: In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China. Asia is the main pricing area, with clear import and export routes [107][109]. - **Price and Profit**: This week, the domestic ethylene price rebounded, and the profit of downstream derivatives was compressed. Overseas ethylene derivatives' profit was in a low - level shock [110][116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The supply and demand of domestic ethylene increased this week. The supply - demand relationship in September will tighten, but it will gradually ease after October [135]. Olefin - Aromatic Association - **Aromatic Relative Valuation**: This week, with the significant decline of crude oil, the relative valuation of downstream aromatics to upstream has rebounded. Overseas aromatic valuation has increased, and the spread with Asia has slightly widened [144][148]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Supply**: The global fuel oil supply is generally loose. Middle East exports are expected to increase in August, and the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in the Asia - Pacific market is expected to rise [160]. - **Demand**: The port bunkering demand for low - sulfur fuel oil in China is weak, and the demand in the Singapore market is also sluggish [160]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the spot digestion is difficult [160]. - **Price and Spread**: The price of fuel oil continues to decline, and the LU's previous strength has further weakened. The FU and LU's near - term contango structure will continue [160].

该

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of FEI at the bottom rebounded significantly, with high - level exports from the Middle East and medium - low - level exports from Russia. The East - West arbitrage logistics remained stable, and the overall supply of naphtha was stable. The impact of US naphtha on the Asian market was limited. The demand for naphtha decreased due to the increased propane procurement in Japan and South Korea, and the FEI - MOPJ spread rebounded significantly. The cracking profit of naphtha dropped to an extremely low level year - on - year, and the negative feedback of cracking units was expected to be delayed [8]. - For ethylene, whether the tariff is maintained or not, it has a limited impact on the domestic and Asian ethylene markets. The upstream and downstream are basically matched, and the expected supply - demand reduction of affected units can be compensated by imports to some extent. The actual gap will be balanced by the negative feedback of downstream demand [8]. - In the case of no tariff impact, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet shows a structural gap. After the partial restart of Southeast Asian units this week, the balance sheet tightened slightly in April, but the overall gap is still equivalent to the maintenance volume of 1 - 2 ethylene cracking units. After the US dollar price of ethylene actively declined this week and the profit was compressed by the strengthening of naphtha, the future dynamic balance is expected to deteriorate [86]. - Under the continuous impact of tariffs, the demand for Asian naphtha will increase in the near - term. However, due to the improved economic efficiency of propane for Japanese and South Korean factories, the degree of propane substitution in these factories will gradually increase. Eventually, the market will return to the supply - demand situation of cracking units [87]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Naphtha Part 3.1.1 Price and Spot - The price of naphtha in Asia strengthened this week, and the cracking profit dropped to a year - on - year low. The spot market was tight at the end of the month, but the willingness of factories to stock up in the future decreased due to the rapid decline in ethylene cracking profit [10][11]. - The naphtha premium fluctuated this week, and the monthly spread structure changed little. The global naphtha price difference showed that the European support was relatively strong, and the East - West spread was repaired month - on - month [12][16]. - The overseas gasoline cracking spread rebounded this week, showing seasonal characteristics. The EIA data was optimistic, with a significant reduction in refined oil inventories in the US and a rapid decline in gasoline inventories. The European inventory remained high [18][21]. - The export quota of refined oil in 2025 changed, with a decrease in general trade quota and an increase in processing trade quota. The overall export plan of refined oil in April remained stable, with low exports of gasoline and diesel and high exports of jet fuel [26]. - The price difference between gasoline and naphtha in Europe and the US remained stable, and both gasoline and naphtha strengthened this week [27]. 3.1.2 Valuation - The global naphtha cracking spread strengthened this week, but the downstream profit weakened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the decline after the end of the pricing cycle [41]. - The Asian ethylene cracking profit declined significantly this week, and the FEI cracking profit declined year - on - year, but the substitution economy of Japan and South Korea was still better than that of naphtha [47]. - The Asian aromatics profit declined rapidly, while the change in Europe and the US was not significant month - on - month [59]. - The overseas refinery profit rebounded this week, while the domestic refinery profit continued to decline [64]. 3.1.3 Supply and Demand Balance - In terms of supply, the exports from major regions such as the Middle East, Russia, and the US changed little this week. The global CDU maintenance changed little week - on - week [66][67]. - In terms of demand, the substitution economy of propane raw materials in Japan and South Korea increased, and the demand for naphtha from CDU decreased [74]. - In the balance sheet, under the assumption of tariff mitigation, the Asian ethylene cracking balance sheet has a structural gap; under the assumption of continuous tariffs, the near - term demand for Asian naphtha will increase, but the substitution of propane will gradually increase [86][87]. 3.2 Ethylene Part 3.2.1 Global Capacity and Logistics - In 2025, the growth of global ethylene cracking capacity is mainly concentrated in China, while the capacity in other regions remains basically unchanged [107]. - Asia is the main pricing area. Japan and South Korea are exporters in Asia, while China and Chinese Taipei are importers. The US exports ethylene to Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, and Europe has a net export of 3 - 4 million tons [109]. 3.2.2 Price and Profit - The price of ethylene in the domestic market remained stable this week, and the import profit increased. The downstream profit of ethylene derivatives was differentiated, with the profit of ethylene glycol and styrene weakening, while the profit of plastics remained stable and the profit of ethylene oxide remained high [110][115]. - The overseas downstream profit of ethylene derivatives remained at a relatively high level, and the overall chemical profit in Europe and the US was healthy [122]. 3.2.3 Supply and Demand Balance - This week, the maintenance of Asian ethylene cracking units changed little. Attention should be paid to the possible delayed restart and additional maintenance of Asian cracking units in May after the consumption of cheap raw materials and in a loss state [75][130]. - The domestic downstream production capacity of ethylene will increase in 2025, with significant growth in the production capacity of plastics, ethylene glycol, styrene, and other products [131].