需求预期：临进春节，下游或有增加头寸需求。临进春节下游养殖迎来集中育肥期，支撑豆粕需求端。 此外，上游生产企业豆粕销售进度相对滞后，饲料厂合同库存相对低位，进入月底，饲料厂或有增加头 寸需求，对豆粕需求端带来利好支撑。 综上所述，进入2026年1月，供需两端多空因素交织，博弈加剧。卓创资讯预计现货一口价重心或环比 持平，月内呈现先跌后涨走势。 2026年1月价格驱动因素评价 供应预期：原料大豆供应呈现季节性回落，但供应端仍处于宽松预期。首先，原料方面，根据卓创资讯 对大豆到港预估以及国内压榨企业开停机情况调研显示2026年1月-3月大豆到港预计分别为748万吨、 520万吨、530万吨，大豆到港预期逐步收紧。此外，海关政策变化或影响部分企业因大豆衔接不畅导致 短时停机。其次，国内生产企业高位库存有去库预期，截至2025年12月26日当周，国内重点生产企业原 料大豆库存638.7万吨，豆粕库存111.9万吨，均处于历史同期偏高为主，进入1月，库存数据预计呈现高 位下滑趋势。第三，进入1月，国储拍卖进口大豆工作或恢复进行，一定程度上补充市场原料供应。综 合三方因素来看，1月份供应端压力有所缓解，对豆粕价格带来中性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The market for soybeans and soybean meal is in a state of oscillation. Domestic soybeans have a slight reduction in production, with Northeast soybeans being popular due to quality differentiation. The import of US soybeans may return to normal, ensuring sufficient soybean supply. Oil mills' operating rates are average, and soybean meal inventory remains high, while demand is strong. The soybean No. 1 contract will return to an oscillatory state, and soybean meal will maintain an oscillatory trend [5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The soybeans No. 1 2601 contract continues to oscillate. The spot price is stable, with the market price of Fuyin soybeans around 4,060 yuan/ton. The basis of soybeans No. 1 oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market is maintained. - The main soybean meal contract is shifting to 2605, showing an oscillatory trend. The spot price of soybean meal has a slight increase, with the price of 43% protein soybean meal in Zhangjiagang rising from 2,980 yuan/ton to around 3,020 yuan/ton. The basis oscillates strongly, and the premium on the futures market narrows [5] 3.2 Domestic Soybean Sales and Supply - The sales of domestic soybeans are relatively fast. The production of new - season domestic soybeans has slightly decreased to 20.9 million tons, and the quality in North China and other regions is differentiated, with high - protein soybeans in the Northeast being popular. As of November 28, the remaining grain ratio of soybeans in Heilongjiang has dropped to 74%, in Anhui to 73%, in Henan to 76%, and in Shandong to 81%. Recently, the auction of state - reserve soybeans has been suspended [5] 3.3 Import and Inventory of Soybeans - The arrival of soybeans at oil mills is high, and the port soybean inventory is sufficient. In October, China imported 9.48 million tons of soybeans, a 26% decrease from the previous month and a 17.2% increase year - on - year. Under the China - US trade agreement, the import of US soybeans will return to normal. Although China and the US have mutually reduced tariffs, a 10% basic tariff remains, so the import cost of US soybeans is still higher than that of South American soybeans. As of November 28, the arrival of soybeans at oil mills was 2.405 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period; the port soybean inventory was 9.576 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period [5] 3.4 US Soybean Market - US soybeans are undergoing high - level adjustments. The November supply - demand report of the US Department of Agriculture has reduced the yield per unit and total production of US soybeans, as well as the ending inventory. The production in South America has not been adjusted, and the global ending inventory has been further reduced. The market is worried about China's subsequent soybean purchases [5] 3.5 Oil Mill Operations and Soybean Meal Inventory - The operating rate of oil mills has declined, but the soybean meal inventory has increased again. As of November 28, the operating rate of oil mills was 60.54%, a decline compared to the previous period but still at a high level in recent years; the soybean crushing volume was 2.2008 million tons; the soybean inventory of oil mills was 7.3396 million tons, rebounding compared to the previous period. The soybean meal production was 1.7386 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period; the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.2032 million tons, increasing again compared to the previous period and at a high level in recent years; the unexecuted contracts of soybean meal were 3.881 million tons, a decline compared to the previous period. The inventory days of soybean meal in feed mills were 8.17 days, rebounding compared to the previous period [6] 3.6 Feed Demand - Feed demand is relatively strong. In the livestock farming sector, the pig price is low, and farming is suffering significant losses. As of November 28, the profit of purchasing piglets for farming was - 248.82 yuan per head, and the self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 147.99 yuan per head. The adjustment of the breeding sow capacity is slow. In September, the national inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 30,000 from the previous month. The adjustment of the breeding sow inventory in large - scale farms is delayed, with a slight increase in the inventory in October; the number of piglets born has increased again, while the sales volume has continued to decline, reflecting a weak mentality of replenishing the herd; the number of pigs held for fattening and secondary fattening has increased. At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million, a 29% increase from the previous quarter and a 23% increase year - on - year. In the poultry sector, the egg price has dropped again, and farming continues to suffer losses, with an increase in the number of culled poultry. The inventory in October decreased slightly from the previous month and may continue to decline in the fourth quarter. In October, the feed production was 29.07 million tons, a decline from the previous month but a 6% increase year - on - year; feed demand remains strong [7]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices in November showed a downward trend, aligning with previous forecasts, primarily driven by rising costs from international soybean prices [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The average price of 43% protein soybean meal in November was 3060 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton (2.68%) from October, and a slight increase of 27 CNY/ton (0.89%) year-on-year [1] - The domestic soybean meal spot basis narrowed to 31 CNY/ton by November 28, down from 40 CNY/ton on November 3, indicating a slight weakening of the spot basis [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Soybean supply is expected to tighten seasonally, with forecasts indicating soybean arrivals of 864 million tons in December, 650 million tons in January, and 450 million tons in February, leading to a downward trend in domestic supply [3] - The demand side remains robust, with high levels of pig farming inventory supporting feed demand, and an expected increase in pig feed sales in December due to seasonal factors [3][4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. soybean market faces export pressures, with China having purchased over 3 million tons of U.S. soybeans since October 30, accounting for 30% of the annual import forecast [3] - The overall market is expected to see a reduction in the previously loose conditions, providing some upward momentum for soybean meal prices, although the supply remains at a relatively high level, limiting the extent of price increases [4]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Negotiations Look Promising, Sharp Rise in US Soybeans Boosts Soybean Meal" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1] - The report is from the Financial Research Institute of Hongye Futures, written by Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Soybean No. 1 2601 contract continued its oscillating rebound. The spot price slightly increased; the market price of Fuyin soybeans rose from 4000 yuan/ton to around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the premium on the futures decreased [4] - The Soybean Meal 01 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of soybean meal recovered; the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rose from 2870 yuan/ton to around 2910 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures maintained a slight premium [4] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion with quality differentiation. As of October 24, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang reached 95%, 75% in Anhui, 70% in Henan, and 75% in Shandong. Heilongjiang's soybeans are of good quality, while those in North China are of poor quality [4] - Soybean supply is abundant, and initial Sino-US talks are promising. In September, domestic soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the previous month and a 13.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year. There is a possibility of purchasing US soybeans. As of October 24, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.145 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and the port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, also a slight decrease but at a recent high [4] Group 4: US Soybean Situation - US soybeans rebounded significantly. The US government is still shut down, but some agricultural services are open, and subsidy funds have been issued. The US soybean harvest may be near completion. The positive expectation of Sino-US negotiations boosted US soybeans to a nearly one-year high [5] Group 5: Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills continued to rise, and soybean meal inventory increased again. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans declined due to high costs. As of October 24, the operating rate of oil mills was 65.13%, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, reaching a recent high. The soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.513 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.87 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.0546 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.2125 million tons, a further decline from the previous month [5] Group 6: Feed Demand - Feed demand is strong. In the pig farming sector, pig prices rebounded from a low level, and the loss margin narrowed. As of October 24, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -289.07 yuan per head, a significant loss, while the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -185.68 yuan per head, with the loss narrowing. In the poultry sector, egg prices declined again, and egg-laying hens were in a loss-making situation, with insufficient culling, and the inventory in September remained at a historical high. As of October 24, the inventory days of soybean meal at feed mills were 7.95 days, a slight increase from the previous month [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion, with quality differentiation, and prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic soybean supply is high, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US negotiations. The operating rate of oil mills is rising, and soybean meal inventory is increasing again. Demand is strong. Soybean No. 1 will oscillate and rebound, and soybean meal will oscillate and stabilize. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].

Group 1 - Domestic soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, with reductions of 10-20 yuan/ton, and coastal soybean meal prices range between 2920-3050 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 29, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3055.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.30%, reaching a high of 3064.00 yuan/ton and a low of 3031.00 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 910,391 contracts [2] - The total transaction volume of soybean meal at major oil mills nationwide reached 126,000 tons on August 28, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous trading day, with 106,000 tons in spot transactions [3] Group 2 - According to a report from Minmetals Futures, the import cost of soybeans has recently maintained a weak and stable trend, with expectations of a potential inventory reduction in September, supporting oil mill profitability [4] - The market is closely monitoring the supply-demand dynamics, particularly the improvement in the Brazilian planting season and the sustainability of high delivery levels in the domestic soybean meal market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soybean meal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with a notable increase in some regions while others see declines [1] - As of July 25, the national soybean meal prices show a range of 2940 to 2950 CNY per ton, with specific prices listed for various trading companies and locations [1] - The futures market on July 25 closed at 3021.00 CNY per ton for the main soybean meal contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.66% [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that for the week ending July 17, the net sales of U.S. soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 182,600 tons, a 49% decrease from the previous week [2] - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 211,300 tons on July 24, an increase of 101,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - According to Guantong Futures, the soybean meal market is characterized by ample supply but average demand, with expectations of a weak market trend moving forward [4]