上下震荡，大豆缺乏指引 2025年12月3日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约延续上下震荡走势。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面升 水维持。 豆粕主力面临换月2605合约，处于震荡走势。豆粕现货价格小涨，张家港43粕由2980元/吨涨至3020元/吨附近。基 差震荡走强，盘面升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆销售较快。新季国产大豆微减产至2090万吨，且华北等地品质分化，东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。据钢联： 截至11月28日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至74%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至73%；河南大豆余粮占比落至76%；山东大豆余粮 占比落至81%。近期国储大豆拍卖暂停。 （2）油厂大豆到港较高，港口大豆库存充足。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月28日，油厂大豆到港量为240.5万吨，环比再增；港口大豆库存为957.6万吨，环比回升。 （3）美豆 ...

供应预期：原料大豆供应呈现季节性回落。原料方面，根据卓创资讯对大豆到港预估以及国内压榨企业 开停机情况调研显示12月-次年2月大豆到港预计分别为864万吨、650万吨、450万吨，大豆到港预期逐 步收紧。12-1月局部地区部分工厂均有停机计划，预计届时国内供应或呈现下滑趋势，生产企业原料大 豆及豆粕库存将呈现较为明显的去库趋势，对现货价格带来一定利好支撑。 国际市场：美豆面临出口压力，关注中国采购力度。根据美国农业部数据显示，自10月30日以来，中国 已累计采购超过300万吨美国大豆，约占本年度1200万吨进口预期的30%。美豆市场对需求前景保持谨 慎乐观态度，支撑美豆期价高位震荡运行，对国内豆粕价格影响偏中性。未来市场继续关注中国采购美 国大豆的进展。 需求预期：需求端保持偏高水平。下游养殖生猪养殖存栏处于高位水平，进入12月，随着气温下降，生 猪增重速度或加快，同时陆续进入大猪需求最旺季，共同支撑饲料需求，预计12月猪料销量或继续增 加，支撑豆粕消费量保持高位水平运行。 综上所述，进入12月，供应端有所收紧，需求端相对平稳，市场宽松格局有所收敛预计对豆粕价格带来 一定上行动力，但供应端仍处于偏高水平导致豆 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Negotiations Look Promising, Sharp Rise in US Soybeans Boosts Soybean Meal" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1] - The report is from the Financial Research Institute of Hongye Futures, written by Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Soybean No. 1 2601 contract continued its oscillating rebound. The spot price slightly increased; the market price of Fuyin soybeans rose from 4000 yuan/ton to around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the premium on the futures decreased [4] - The Soybean Meal 01 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of soybean meal recovered; the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rose from 2870 yuan/ton to around 2910 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures maintained a slight premium [4] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion with quality differentiation. As of October 24, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang reached 95%, 75% in Anhui, 70% in Henan, and 75% in Shandong. Heilongjiang's soybeans are of good quality, while those in North China are of poor quality [4] - Soybean supply is abundant, and initial Sino-US talks are promising. In September, domestic soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the previous month and a 13.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year. There is a possibility of purchasing US soybeans. As of October 24, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.145 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and the port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, also a slight decrease but at a recent high [4] Group 4: US Soybean Situation - US soybeans rebounded significantly. The US government is still shut down, but some agricultural services are open, and subsidy funds have been issued. The US soybean harvest may be near completion. The positive expectation of Sino-US negotiations boosted US soybeans to a nearly one-year high [5] Group 5: Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills continued to rise, and soybean meal inventory increased again. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans declined due to high costs. As of October 24, the operating rate of oil mills was 65.13%, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, reaching a recent high. The soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.513 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.87 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.0546 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.2125 million tons, a further decline from the previous month [5] Group 6: Feed Demand - Feed demand is strong. In the pig farming sector, pig prices rebounded from a low level, and the loss margin narrowed. As of October 24, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -289.07 yuan per head, a significant loss, while the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -185.68 yuan per head, with the loss narrowing. In the poultry sector, egg prices declined again, and egg-laying hens were in a loss-making situation, with insufficient culling, and the inventory in September remained at a historical high. As of October 24, the inventory days of soybean meal at feed mills were 7.95 days, a slight increase from the previous month [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion, with quality differentiation, and prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic soybean supply is high, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US negotiations. The operating rate of oil mills is rising, and soybean meal inventory is increasing again. Demand is strong. Soybean No. 1 will oscillate and rebound, and soybean meal will oscillate and stabilize. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 to close at 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the South China soybean meal spot price fell 20 to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 40 to 2450 yuan per ton, a 1.61% decrease [4]. - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher, mainly due to the unexpectedly high crushing data released by NOPA, which boosted the price through demand. However, data on exports and harvest progress remained suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened, mainly because domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were at a high level compared to the same period, with sufficient supply. The expected easing of China - Canada trade relations and bearish sentiment exerted pressure. Additionally, the sowing in Brazil was progressing smoothly, the early - stage crops were growing well, and Argentina was about to start sowing with good soil moisture [4]. - The initial sowing work in Brazil was going smoothly. Precipitation in the central - western producing areas (such as Mato Grosso) was low in late October, which required continuous attention. China - U.S. economic and trade negotiations were about to take place in Malaysia, and trade sentiment cooled. Attention was paid to the high - level meeting during the APEC at the end of the month. The Canadian Foreign Minister visited China, and the China - Canada trade relations eased. The import of Canadian rapeseed might resume, and the market sentiment was bearish. Domestic soybean inventories were high, the oil mill operating rate rebounded, and the supply of soybean meal was sufficient. It was expected that the continuous soybean meal would fluctuate weakly in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract rose 14 cents per bushel to 1021 cents per bushel, a 1.39% increase; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans rose 2 dollars per ton to 481 dollars per ton, a 0.42% increase; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans fell 2 dollars per ton to 454 dollars per ton, a 0.44% decrease; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the futures market fell 50.85 yuan per ton to - 177.89 yuan per ton; the DCE soybean meal 01 contract fell 54 yuan per ton to 2868 yuan per ton, a 1.85% decrease; the CZCE rapeseed meal 01 contract fell 85 yuan per ton to 2306 yuan per ton, a 3.55% decrease; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference rose 31 yuan per ton to 562 yuan per ton; the spot price in East China fell 30 yuan per ton to 2890 yuan per ton, a 1.03% decrease; the spot price in South China fell 20 yuan per ton to 2900 yuan per ton, a 0.68% decrease; the spot - futures price difference in South China rose 34 yuan per ton to 32 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans fluctuated and closed higher due to the unexpectedly high NOPA crushing data, but export and harvest progress data were suspended. Domestic soybean and rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and weakened because of sufficient supply, expected easing of China - Canada trade relations, and smooth sowing in Brazil [7]. - The U.S. government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were suspended. The current harvest progress was estimated to be 70% - 80%. China had not purchased U.S. soybeans, and export demand was weak. The market expected a slight decrease in the October report's yield per acre to 53.2 bushels per acre [8]. - As of the week of October 10, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing gross profit was 2.72 dollars per bushel; the 48% protein soybean meal spot price in Illinois was 284.83 dollars per short - ton; the truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 50.84 cents per pound; the average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 9.90 dollars per bushel [8]. - NOPA's monthly report showed that member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans in September, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. As of September 30, the member companies' soybean oil inventory dropped to a nine - month low of 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of October 11, 2025, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 11.1%. Conab estimated that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach 177.6386 million tons, a 3.6% increase year - on - year, and the export volume would increase to 112.11 million tons. As of the week of October 10, 2025, domestic major oil mills' soybean inventory was 7.6576 million tons, soybean meal inventory was 1.0791 million tons, and national port soybean inventory was 10.092 million tons [10]. - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the national weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal was 147,300 tons, the average daily pick - up volume was 187,420 tons, the major oil mills' crushing volume was 2.1662 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 7.93 days [11]. Industry News - As of October 10, the soybean planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil, had reached 21.22% of the expected total planting area [12]. - As of the week of October 5, Canada's rapeseed export volume decreased 8.7% to 80,500 tons. From August 1 to October 5, 2025, Canada's rapeseed export volume was 796,100 tons, a 59.2% decrease from the same period last year. As of October 5, Canada's rapeseed commercial inventory was 1.274 million tons [12]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate had reached 14%, the third - fastest in the same period [12]. - Brazil exported 2,166,031.56 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with an average daily export volume of 270,753.94 tons, a 26% increase from the average daily export volume in October last year [13]. - Canada exported 477,254 tons of rapeseed, 281,360 tons of rapeseed oil, and 446,993 tons of rapeseed meal in August 2025 [13]. - From January to July this year, the U.S. exported only 5.9 million tons of soybeans to China. Since May, China has stopped buying U.S. soybeans. A U.S. market research company predicted that if China did not return to the U.S. market by mid - November, the U.S. might lose 14 - 16 million tons of soybean orders to China [13]. - Last week, soybean planting in Brazil slowed down due to insufficient rainfall. Safras & Mercado estimated the national planting rate to be about 11.2%. In Paraná, the planting rate was about 38%, and in Mato Grosso, about 20% of the area had been planted [14]. - As of the week of October 14, about 39% of the U.S. soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week [14]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area was expected to be 18 million hectares, and the production was expected to be 51.1 million tons. The estimated 2025/26 planting area was 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [15].

Group 1 - Domestic soybean meal spot prices continue to decline, with reductions of 10-20 yuan/ton, and coastal soybean meal prices range between 2920-3050 yuan/ton [1] - As of August 29, the main soybean meal futures contract closed at 3055.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.30%, reaching a high of 3064.00 yuan/ton and a low of 3031.00 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 910,391 contracts [2] - The total transaction volume of soybean meal at major oil mills nationwide reached 126,000 tons on August 28, an increase of 34,000 tons from the previous trading day, with 106,000 tons in spot transactions [3] Group 2 - According to a report from Minmetals Futures, the import cost of soybeans has recently maintained a weak and stable trend, with expectations of a potential inventory reduction in September, supporting oil mill profitability [4] - The market is closely monitoring the supply-demand dynamics, particularly the improvement in the Brazilian planting season and the sustainability of high delivery levels in the domestic soybean meal market [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soybean meal market is experiencing mixed price movements, with a notable increase in some regions while others see declines [1] - As of July 25, the national soybean meal prices show a range of 2940 to 2950 CNY per ton, with specific prices listed for various trading companies and locations [1] - The futures market on July 25 closed at 3021.00 CNY per ton for the main soybean meal contract, reflecting a decrease of 0.66% [1] Group 2 - The USDA reported that for the week ending July 17, the net sales of U.S. soybean meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 182,600 tons, a 49% decrease from the previous week [2] - The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major oil mills across the country reached 211,300 tons on July 24, an increase of 101,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - According to Guantong Futures, the soybean meal market is characterized by ample supply but average demand, with expectations of a weak market trend moving forward [4]