豆一收阶段新高，豆粕疲弱 2026年2月10日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一主力2605合约再次走高触及4473，逼近4500点，再创近年新高。现货价格坚挺，富锦大豆市场价在4440元/吨 附近。豆一基差小幅走弱，盘面小幅贴水。 豆粕主力2605合约近期弱势震荡。豆粕现货价格回落，张家港43粕由3060元/吨跌至3020元/吨附近。基差震荡走弱， 盘面贴水较高。 （1）国产大豆销售放缓，年后余粮有限。据钢联：截至2月6日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比维持39%，环比持平；安徽大 豆余粮占比落至45%，环比降1%；河南大豆余粮占比落至49%，环比降1%；山东大豆余粮占比落至50%，环比降1%。东北 售粮仍快，华北等地偏慢，因粮质分化。2月3日国储大豆再拍6万吨，全部成交。食品企业年前备货基本完成。 （2）中国或再次加大进口美豆，港口大豆库存续落。近期中美领导人通话，中或再次加大进口美豆，当前美豆成 本仍高于南美大豆，后期或进储备；南美巴西大豆收割，上市临近。暂无最新进口大豆拍卖公告。油厂大豆到港量回落， 港口大豆库存持续回落。据钢联：截至2月6日，油厂大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

Group 1: Market Trends - Last week (Oct 20 - 24), US soybean futures prices mainly rose due to China-US economic and trade consultations and China's potential purchase of US soybeans, with the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans rising 2.19% and the main December 2025 contract of US soybean meal rising 4.59% on a weekly basis [2] - Domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded from a low level, and soybean No. 1 futures prices were relatively strong. The main January 2026 contract of soybean meal rose 2.27%, and the main January 2026 contract of soybean No. 1 rose 1.89% on a weekly basis [3] Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - The US government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were still suspended, with little impact [3] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week-on-week, which was a bullish factor. The average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery decreased week-on-week, while the average import cost increased, and the average crushing profit on the futures market decreased [3] - The planting progress of new Brazilian soybeans was relatively fast, which was a bearish factor. As of the week of Oct 16, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24%, compared with 14% the previous week and about 18% in the same period last year [3] - The weather forecast for the main soybean-producing areas in Brazil showed that precipitation would be slightly less than normal in the next two weeks (Oct 25 - Nov 7), and the temperature would fluctuate around the average, with a neutral impact [3] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 100,000 tons, compared with about 150,000 tons the previous week [4] - The weekly average daily pick-up volume of soybean meal increased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily pick-up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 187,000 tons the previous week [4] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week-on-week. As of the week of Oct 24, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 12 yuan/ton, compared with about 21 yuan/ton the previous week and about 35 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week-on-week and was basically flat year-on-year. As of the week of Oct 17, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 850,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9% [5] - The weekly soybean crushing volume increased week-on-week and was expected to slightly decrease next week. As of the week of Oct 24, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.37 million tons, and the operating rate was about 65%. Next week (Oct 25 - 31), the expected crushing volume was about 2.34 million tons, and the operating rate was 64% [5] Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - The soybean prices were divided, with prices in the Northeast producing area being relatively strong and prices of new soybeans in the Inner Pass area falling. The purchase price of clean soybeans in the Northeast increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton, while that in the Inner Pass area decreased by 360 - 460 yuan/ton, and the selling price in the southern sales area increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] - Farmers in the Northeast producing area were reluctant to sell, and the purchase price was slightly increased [6] - The demand in the southern sales area was expected to improve due to the cooling weather [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - Next week (Oct 27 - 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures were expected to fluctuate, waiting for guidance from China-US economic and trade consultations [6]