1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures showed a mixed trend. The main contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main contract of soybean No. 2 decreased by 2.05%, the main contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [5][7][8][9]. - In the short - term, the soybean market in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation pattern, but there is a possibility of a slight correction for soybeans of general quality. The price of domestic soybeans and soybean meal is closely related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. Although the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slow and precipitation in some areas is uneven, it is difficult to change the fact of a Brazilian soybean bumper harvest, and the impact on the current market is limited. The long - term price of soybean meal is suppressed by the expected increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May [5][7][8]. - The core drivers of the current edible oil market are concentrated in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about the impact of geopolitics on the energy supply chain and the uncertainty of the US biofuel policy [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 5.34%. By the end of this month, there will be a small peak of soybean auctions with a cumulative release of about 10,000 tons. The downstream enterprises mainly adopt a strategy of purchasing as needed, and the price increase momentum is insufficient. There may be a slight correction for soybeans of general quality [5]. - **Soybean No. 2**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 2.05%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. The slow harvest progress and uneven precipitation in some Brazilian regions have limited impact on the current market [7]. - **Soybean Meal**: This week, the main 2605 contract decreased by 3.04%. The US soybean futures are in a narrow - range shock. The domestic soybean meal price is related to the shipping rhythm of Brazilian soybeans. In the long - term, the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the significant increase in domestic soybean arrivals from April to May will suppress the forward price of soybean meal [8]. - **Soybean Oil**: This week, the main 2605 contract increased by 0.7%. The core drivers of the edible oil market are in the macro and policy aspects. The international soybean oil market is concerned about geopolitics and the US biofuel policy. Brazilian soybean crushers urged the government to allow higher - proportion biodiesel blending, which supports the oil price [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Changes**: The main 2605 contract of soybean No. 1 decreased by 5.34%, the main 2605 contract of soybean meal decreased by 3.04%, and the main 2605 contract of soybean oil increased by 0.7% [13][19][26]. - **Spread**: As of March 26, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was - 78 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 58 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 26, the net position of the top 20 in soybean No. 1 futures was - 14,475 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 20,942 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean meal futures was - 554,182 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 34,913 lots; the net position of the top 20 in soybean oil futures was - 121,795 lots, and the warehouse receipts of the main contract were 24,690 lots [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Soybean**: As of March 26, the spot price of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the basis of the main contract was - 227 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 26, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 328 yuan/ton [62]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 26, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis of the main contract was 304 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 26, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in April was 92 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Argentine soybeans in April was - 36 cents/bu, a decrease of 5 cents/bu from last week; the FOB premium of Brazilian soybeans in April was 10 cents/bu, an increase of 20 cents/bu from last week [71]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 26, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 4,569.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 52.8 yuan/ton from last week; the arrival cost of South American soybeans was 3,859.69 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.55 yuan/ton from last week; the difference in arrival cost between the two was 709.76 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.25 yuan/ton from last week [75]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 42% of the soybean - producing areas were in a drought state, and the drought situation was slightly alleviated compared with last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the precipitation pattern will change significantly in the next week, with a drying trend in the north, southeast, and central regions, and local rainfall in the south at the beginning of next week, which is expected to have no impact on the harvest progress [78][82]. - **Upstream Supply**: In 2025/26, the expected output of US soybeans was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 951.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last month. The expected output of Brazilian soybeans was 18,000 million tons, unchanged from last month; the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged from last month. The expected output of Argentine soybeans was 4,800 million tons, a decrease of 50 million tons from last month; the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged from last month [86][90][94]. - **Domestic Industry**: In the 12th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from last week, a decrease of 6.75%, and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 103.17%. The soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from last week, an increase of 6.89%, and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year, a decrease of 10.50%. The national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.0537 million tons, a decrease of 24,700 tons from last week, a decrease of 2.29%, and an increase of 39,900 tons compared with the same period last year, an increase of 3.94%. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, an increase of 21,100 tons from the previous week, and the actual startup rate was 54.81% [108][111][114][119]. - **Substitute Products**: As of March 26, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil widened, while the spot and futures spreads of rapeseed - soybean oil narrowed. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,693.16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 139.47 yuan/ton from last week; the difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 657 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,294 yuan/ton from last week; the ratio of soybean meal to rapeseed meal was 1.24, an increase of 0.03 from last week. The ratio of soybean oil to soybean meal was 2.93, an increase of 0.1 from last week [132][135][139][142]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of March 20, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 945,100 tons, an increase of 117,000 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 160,700 tons, a decrease of 73,500 tons from last week [147]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Livestock and Poultry Prices**: As of March 26, the price of live pigs (externally - three - way) in Beijing was 9.52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 21.76 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.6 yuan/kg from last week [151]. - **Breeding Profits**: As of March 18, the pig - breeding profit was - 415.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 44.96 yuan/head from last week; as of March 20, the poultry - breeding profit was - 0.32 yuan/head, an increase of 0.01 yuan/head from last week [156]. - **Feed Production**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed production was 30.086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.03% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8% [159]. - **Livestock Inventory**: In February, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, a slight month - on - month decrease of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.48%. The inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 37.3205 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.79% and a year - on - year increase of 5.57% [164]. 3.6 Options Market - There is only a figure of the historical volatility of at - the - money options of the soybean meal contract in the report, but no specific data analysis is provided [165].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract dropped 63.25 to close at 1160.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 5.17%; the May soybean meal contract fell 99 to close at 3029 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.16%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 20 to 3128 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.59%; the May rapeseed meal contract dropped 168 to close at 2423 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.48%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 190 to 2440 yuan per ton, a decline of 7.22% [4][7] - The U.S. soybeans retreated from high levels mainly because the Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations concluded, and the expectation of increased U.S. soybean purchases in the new year was basically dashed. The U.S. soybean futures price limit - down on Monday. The ongoing Middle - East situation and the strong - oscillating oil prices provided support to the U.S. soybean and other agricultural product markets. The Dalian soybean meal adjusted downward, encountering a key resistance level on the weekly line technically. The overall arrival of domestic soybeans was relatively low, oil mills gradually shut down for maintenance, supply tightened, downstream procurement transactions picked up, and the spot price was relatively strong. However, the arrival of soybeans will increase in April, and the short - term upward space is expected to be limited [4][7] - The Middle - East conflict continues, Trump postponed his visit to China, and the new purchases of U.S. soybeans this year are in doubt. The outer market retreated from high levels. Pay attention to the planting intention report at the end of the month. The arrival of domestic soybeans in March is generally low, oil mills are gradually shutting down for maintenance, the crushing operation rate is expected to decline to some extent, and the spot basis is relatively strong. But the arrival of soybeans will increase in April, which will relieve the short - term supply pressure. Pay attention to the talks between the Brazilian delegation and China on quarantine issues. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate, decline, and adjust in the short term [4][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price on March 20 was 1160.50 cents per bushel, a decrease of 63.25 cents or 5.17% from March 13; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 482.00 dollars per ton, a decrease of 13.00 dollars or 2.63% from March 13; the CNF import price of U.S. Gulf soybeans was 512.00 dollars per ton, a decrease of 24.00 dollars or 4.48% from March 13; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk was 106.74 yuan per ton, a decrease of 17.52 yuan from March 13; the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal price was 3029.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 99.00 yuan or 3.16% from March 13; the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (CZCE) rapeseed meal price was 2423.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 168.00 yuan or 6.48% from March 13; the soybean - rapeseed meal price difference was 606.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 69.00 yuan from March 13; the spot price of soybean meal in East China was 3330.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.30% from March 13; the spot price of soybean meal in South China was 3400.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 20.00 yuan or 0.59% from March 13; the spot - futures price difference in South China was 371.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 119.00 yuan from March 13 [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The U.S. soybeans retreated from high levels due to the conclusion of Sino - U.S. economic and trade consultations and the dashing of the expectation of increased purchases. The Middle - East situation and oil prices provided support. The Dalian soybean meal adjusted downward, encountering technical resistance, with tight supply in March and expected supply relief in April [4][7][11] - As of the week ending March 12, 2026, the net increase in U.S. soybean export sales in the 2025/2026 season was 29.8 tons, compared with 45.7 tons in the previous week; the cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans this season was 3679 tons, with a sales progress of 85.8%, compared with 89.0% in the same period last year; China's net purchase of U.S. soybeans that week was 8.0 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 1098 tons and an unshipped volume of 312.7 tons [8] - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the gross profit of U.S. soybean crushing was 3.27 dollars per bushel, compared with 2.94 dollars per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at Illinois soybean processing plants was 325.63 dollars per short ton, compared with 313.88 dollars per short ton in the previous week. The truck - quoted price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 66.64 cents per pound, compared with 64.61 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 12.16 dollars per bushel, compared with 11.98 dollars per bushel in the previous week [8][9] - The NOPA monthly crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in February was 2.08 billion pounds (expected 1.93 billion pounds, 1.9 billion pounds in January, and 1.503 billion pounds in the same period last year); the U.S. soybean crushing volume in February was 208.785 million bushels (expected 202.73 million bushels, 221.564 million bushels in January, and 177.87 million bushels in the same period last year) [9] - Conab reported that as of March 14, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 59.2% (50.6% last week, 69.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 58.4%). The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 96.4% (89.2% last week, 96.6% in the same period last year). The harvest progress in Paraná was 60% (46% last week, 72% in the same period last year). The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 68% (61% last week, 80% in the same period last year). Brazil's soybean exports in March are expected to reach 16.32 million tons, down from the previous estimate of 16.47 million tons [9] - The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that as of the week ending March 18, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crops was 78% (76% in the previous week, 76% in the same period last year). Due to recent good rainfall, the crop conditions in Argentina improved, and the exchange estimated the soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to remain at 48.5 million tons [10] - As of the week ending March 13, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.4861 million tons, a decrease of 240,600 tons from last week and an increase of 2.3181 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 627,300 tons, a decrease of 133,200 tons from last week and a decrease of 55,700 tons from the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.8895 million tons, a decrease of 416,900 tons from last week and an increase of 1.5347 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 5.489 million tons, a decrease of 305,000 tons from last week and an increase of 2.1877 million tons from the same period last year [10] - As of the week ending March 20, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 190,000 tons, including 147,800 tons of spot trading and 42,300 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the week before the holiday was 168,700 tons; the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 168,900 tons, compared with 177,100 tons in the week before the holiday; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9905 million tons, compared with 1.9694 million tons in the week before the holiday; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 8.82 days, compared with 8.64 days in the previous week [11] Industry News - Brazilian consulting firm PAN reported that as of March 13, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 57.43%, lower than 66.03% in the same period last year and slightly lower than the five - year average of 57.88%. The overall yield per unit area still increased [12] - AgRural reported that as of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 61% (51% last week, 70% in the same period last year). The focus has shifted to the impact of excessive and insufficient rainfall in late - sown areas [12] - The Agricultural Economics Research Institute of Mato Grosso reported that as of March 13, the harvest progress of soybeans in the state in the 2025/2026 season reached 96.4% of the planted area, higher than 89.15% a week ago and higher than the historical average of 90.64% in the same period, but lower than 97.33% in the same period last year. The predicted soybean output in the state in the 2025/2026 season is 50.5 million tons, a 0.74% decrease from the record - high output last year [12] - The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture detailed that one in every ten batches of goods will be strictly inspected. For one in every ten batches, officials will take samples of up to 5 kg for pest and disease inspections. Some soybean cargoes failed the Brazilian health inspection last week, which may lead to delays in exports to China [13] - SECEX reported that Brazil's soybean export pace in March 2026 continued to be lower than the same period last year. From March 1 to 13, Brazil's soybean exports were 6.507 million tons, compared with 14.658 million tons in the whole month of March 2025 [13] - S&P Global Energy reported that it expects U.S. farmers to plant 95.2 million acres of corn and 85 million acres of soybeans in 2026 [13] - The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture said that if the Middle - East conflict is not resolved soon, Brazil may face difficulties in fertilizer supply. Analysts believe that farmers may turn to cheaper alternative supplies [13] - The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) expects Brazil's soybean crushing volume in 2026 to reach a record 61.5 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 61 million tons. It expects Brazil's soybean output in the 2025/2026 season to reach 177.85 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 177.12 million tons, and exports in 2026 to be 111.5 million tons, the same as the previous estimate [14] - The International Grains Council (IGC) monthly report showed that the global soybean output in the 2026/2027 season is expected to increase by 16 million tons year - on - year to 442 million tons, the trade volume to increase by 3 million tons to 190 million tons, the consumption to increase by 12 million tons to 442 million tons, and the ending stocks to increase by 1 million tons to 79 million tons [14] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the price trends of U.S. soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and soybean meal, the exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, and the inventory data of soybeans, soybean meal, etc. [15][16][17][18][20][22][24][27][28][29][30][32][33][35][37][42][43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The prices of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [5][7][8]. - The spot price of soybeans in the Northeast production area is expected to maintain a slight upward trend in the short - term, with high - protein soybeans remaining high and firm [5]. - The South American soybean production outlook is a key variable in the global market. If the Brazilian soybean production reduction expands, it may support the US soybean price [6][7]. - The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be favorable, which has led to an optimistic market expectation for future bio - fuel demand [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Soybean (Bean 1)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.69% this week. After the festival, the spot price of soybeans in the Northeast is expected to rise slightly, with high - protein soybeans having limited upward momentum [5]. - **Imported Soybeans (Bean 2)**: The main 2605 contract rose 6.55% this week. The South American production outlook is crucial. Some institutions have lowered their Brazilian production estimates, and the US soybean ending stocks forecast remains unchanged [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The main 2605 contract rose 7.31% this week. The South American production outlook is a key factor. Domestic market concerns about supply in late March to early April have led to increased trading volume, and downstream feed enterprises' inventories are relatively sufficient in the short - term [7]. - **Soybean Oil**: The main 2605 contract rose 3.3% this week. The US bio - diesel policy is expected to be introduced, and the market is optimistic. After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices have risen, but downstream purchases are cautious [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil all rose this week, with increases of 6.69%, 7.31%, and 3.3% respectively [12][19][25]. - **Spread**: As of March 12, the 05 - 09 spread of soybean meal was 4 yuan/ton, and that of soybean oil was 92 yuan/ton [31][34]. - **Net Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 12, the net positions of the top 20 in soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil futures were - 26,511 lots, - 490,684 lots, and - 126,592 lots respectively. The warehouse receipts of the main contracts of soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil were 24,618 lots, 36,982 lots, and 25,714 lots respectively [39][45][50]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Soybean**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 3 domestic soybeans in Harbin was 4,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was - 449 yuan/ton [54]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of March 12, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 226 yuan/ton [60]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of March 12, the spot price of Grade 1 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,900 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 268 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week [66]. - **Imported Soybean Premium**: As of March 12, the FOB premium of US Gulf soybeans in March was 115 cents/bushel, unchanged from last week; that of Argentine soybeans was 20 cents/bushel, down 16 cents/bushel from last week; and that of Brazilian soybeans was - 29 cents/bushel, down 19 cents/bushel from last week [70]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Cost**: As of March 12, the arrival cost of US soybeans was 5,412.7 yuan/ton, up 203.54 yuan/ton from last week; that of South American soybeans was 3,908.4 yuan/ton, up 188.84 yuan/ton from last week, and the cost difference was 1,504.66 yuan/ton, up 14.7 yuan/ton from last week [74]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Weather**: In the US, about 47% (+3) of the soybean - producing areas were in drought last week, with a slight improvement compared to last week but worse than the same period last year. In Brazil, the soybean harvest progress as of March 7 was 50.6% [77][95]. - **Supply - Side**: In 2025/26, the expected US soybean production was 11,598.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and the inventory was 951.6 million tons, down 0.1 million tons from last month; the expected Brazilian soybean production was 18,000 million tons, unchanged, and the inventory was 3,791 million tons, unchanged; the expected Argentine soybean production was 4,800 million tons, down 50 million tons from last month, and the inventory was 2,291.9 million tons, unchanged [84][88][92]. - **Domestic Situation**: In the 10th week of 2026, the soybean inventory of major domestic oil mills was 5.7267 million tons, down 4.03% from last week; the soybean meal inventory was 760,500 tons, up 8.46% from last week; the soybean oil inventory was 1.094 million tons, down 0.26% from last week. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 10th week was 1.833 million tons, and the actual operating rate was 50.47%. China's soybean imports in January and February 2026 were 6.571 million tons and 5.976 million tons respectively. The estimated soybean arrival volume in March 2026 was 7.051 million tons [106][109][112][117][120][123]. - **Substitute Situation**: As of March 12, the price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,780 yuan/ton, up 780 yuan/ton from last week; the price of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 10,220 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from last week. The spot and futures spreads of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil narrowed, while the rapeseed - soybean spreads widened. The average price of rapeseed meal was 2,702.63 yuan/ton, up 136.31 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spread was 577 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the soybean meal/rapeseed meal ratio was 1.21, up 0.03 from last week. The soybean oil/soybean meal ratio was 2.83, down 0.11 from last week [131][134][138][141]. - **Transaction Situation**: As of February 27, the total transaction volume of soybean meal was 437,100 tons, up 264,500 tons from last week; the total transaction volume of soybean oil was 74,900 tons, down 4,950 tons from last week [146]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Prices**: As of March 12, the price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Beijing was 10.12 yuan/kg, down 0.4 yuan/kg from last week; the price of piglets was 24.6 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from last week [150]. - **Profits**: As of February 11, the pig - raising profit was - 134.06 yuan/head, down 34.74 yuan/head from last week; as of February 13, the poultry - raising profit was - 0.09 yuan/bird, down 0.12 yuan/bird from last week [155]. - **Demand**: As of December 2025, the monthly feed output was 30.086 million tons, up 1.03% month - on - month and 5.8% year - on - year. In February 2026, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 5.0204 million heads, down 0.01% month - on - month and 0.48% year - on - year; the inventory of commercial pigs was 37.3205 million heads, up 1.79% month - on - month and 5.57% year - on - year [158][163].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of domestic soybeans is expected to fluctuate strongly, while the price of soybean meal is expected to remain volatile [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - The main contract of soybean No. 1 (2605) reached a new high, approaching 4,500 points, with a firm spot price and a slightly weaker basis. The main contract of soybean meal (2605) showed weak fluctuations, with a falling spot price and a high basis discount [4] Domestic Soybean Sales - The sales of domestic soybeans slowed down, and the remaining grain after the Spring Festival was limited. As of February 6, the remaining grain ratios in Heilongjiang, Anhui, Henan, and Shandong were 39%, 45%, 49%, and 50% respectively, with the latter three showing a 1% decrease from the previous period [4] Import and Inventory - China may increase imports of US soybeans again, and the port soybean inventory continued to decline. As of February 6, the port soybean inventory was 5.909 million tons, showing a continuous decline [4] US Soybean Market - US soybeans rebounded strongly due to the boost of the China-US call. The upcoming February USDA supply and demand report is expected to show limited changes [5] Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills increased again, and the soybean meal inventory rebounded. As of February 6, the operating rate of oil mills was 68.33%, at a high level in the same period in recent years. The soybean meal inventory was 992,100 tons, the highest in the same period in recent years [5] Feed Demand - Feed demand was strong. In the livestock sector, pig prices fell, and breeding profits were divided. In the poultry sector, egg prices fell, and breeding maintained a small profit. High inventory levels supported strong feed demand, and feed enterprises actively stocked up [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent rebound of the rapeseed meal contract may have ended, and the market will continue to fluctuate between 2700 yuan/ton and 2800 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the upward trend of the oil market remains, but in the medium - to - short - term, there may be a phased adjustment after continuous rises [6][129] Summary by Directory Part 1: Protein Meal Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, CBOT soybeans first rose and then fell, with the price center slightly elevated. The domestic rapeseed meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with futures prices rising and then falling. The spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was relatively strong this week, but the bullish sentiment at the end - user level was insufficient [6] 2. Export and Inspection Data - The weekly soybean export inspection volume in the US decreased by 2% but increased by 79% year - on - year. As of January 22, 2026, the total export inspection volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 20.668363 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.5%. The export to China (Mainland) increased significantly [12] 3. South American Market - Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181 million tons, a 5.54% increase from the previous season. As of January 22, the soybean harvest progress was 4.9%. In Argentina, high - temperature and drought weather may lead to a decline in the 2025/26 production [30][31] 4. Domestic Market - This week, domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.4976 million tons. The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills was 58.60%, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 90.68 million tons [38][44] Part 2: Oil Market Analysis 1. Price Trends - This week, US soybean oil first rose and then fell, while Malaysian palm oil first rose and then fell. Domestic oils followed the trends of related international oils. The overall trend of oils this week was rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil, and the soybean - palm oil spread declined significantly [59][101] 2. International Oil Information - From January 1 - 20, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 14.43% month - on - month. From January 1 - 25, exports increased. In December 2025, Indonesian palm oil exports increased by 52.1%. The first batch of Australian rapeseed has completed customs clearance in China [63][64] 3. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 4th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0449 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78%. Among them, soybean oil inventory decreased, palm oil inventory increased, and rapeseed oil inventory decreased [84] Part 3: Market Outlook 1. Technical Analysis - For rapeseed meal, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators are bearish; for rapeseed oil, short - term and medium - term indicators are bullish, and long - term indicators are entangled; for soybean oil and palm oil, short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators show different trends [128] 2. Fundamental Analysis - For protein meals, the drought in Argentina and rainfall in Brazil may lead to weather - related speculation, but the pressure of a large Brazilian soybean harvest and weak US soybean exports are evident. For oils, geopolitical factors and the US biodiesel policy will affect the market, and the Malaysian palm oil de - stocking cycle has begun [129]

Group 1: Market Trends - Last week (Oct 20 - 24), US soybean futures prices mainly rose due to China-US economic and trade consultations and China's potential purchase of US soybeans, with the main January 2026 contract of US soybeans rising 2.19% and the main December 2025 contract of US soybean meal rising 4.59% on a weekly basis [2] - Domestic soybean meal futures prices rebounded from a low level, and soybean No. 1 futures prices were relatively strong. The main January 2026 contract of soybean meal rose 2.27%, and the main January 2026 contract of soybean No. 1 rose 1.89% on a weekly basis [3] Group 2: International Soybean Market Fundamentals - The US government shutdown continued, and USDA reports were still suspended, with little impact [3] - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week-on-week, which was a bullish factor. The average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for December delivery decreased week-on-week, while the average import cost increased, and the average crushing profit on the futures market decreased [3] - The planting progress of new Brazilian soybeans was relatively fast, which was a bearish factor. As of the week of Oct 16, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 24%, compared with 14% the previous week and about 18% in the same period last year [3] - The weather forecast for the main soybean-producing areas in Brazil showed that precipitation would be slightly less than normal in the next two weeks (Oct 25 - Nov 7), and the temperature would fluctuate around the average, with a neutral impact [3] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - The weekly average daily trading volume of soybean meal decreased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 100,000 tons, compared with about 150,000 tons the previous week [4] - The weekly average daily pick-up volume of soybean meal increased. As of the week of Oct 24, the average daily pick-up volume of major oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 187,000 tons the previous week [4] - The basis of soybean meal decreased week-on-week. As of the week of Oct 24, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 12 yuan/ton, compared with about 21 yuan/ton the previous week and about 35 yuan/ton in the same period last year [5] - The inventory of soybean meal decreased week-on-week and was basically flat year-on-year. As of the week of Oct 17, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 850,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 9% [5] - The weekly soybean crushing volume increased week-on-week and was expected to slightly decrease next week. As of the week of Oct 24, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.37 million tons, and the operating rate was about 65%. Next week (Oct 25 - 31), the expected crushing volume was about 2.34 million tons, and the operating rate was 64% [5] Group 4: Domestic Soybean No. 1 Spot Market - The soybean prices were divided, with prices in the Northeast producing area being relatively strong and prices of new soybeans in the Inner Pass area falling. The purchase price of clean soybeans in the Northeast increased by 40 - 80 yuan/ton, while that in the Inner Pass area decreased by 360 - 460 yuan/ton, and the selling price in the southern sales area increased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] - Farmers in the Northeast producing area were reluctant to sell, and the purchase price was slightly increased [6] - The demand in the southern sales area was expected to improve due to the cooling weather [6] Group 5: Market Outlook - Next week (Oct 27 - 31), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean No. 1 futures were expected to fluctuate, waiting for guidance from China-US economic and trade consultations [6]