Core Insights - Japan's core Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, reaching 111.4, marking the 49th consecutive month of increase and a resurgence in price growth since May [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The increase in consumer prices is primarily driven by a surge in energy prices, with electricity and gas prices turning from a year-on-year decline of 7% and 5% in the previous month to increases of 3.2% and 2.2% respectively [1] - While the price increases for food and durable consumer goods have moderated compared to last year, the price of ordinary japonica rice surged by 48.6%, and chocolate and coffee bean prices rose by 50.9% and 64.1% respectively [1] - Hotel accommodation fees increased by 5.8% year-on-year, influenced by the growing demand for inbound tourism [1] Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Media and experts suggest that the new Japanese government's intention to adopt more aggressive fiscal and monetary policies may lead to further depreciation of the yen, potentially exacerbating inflation in Japan [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On August 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.83%. The spot market is optimistic as the sixth round of price hikes has begun. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable, and the supply disturbances of coking coal support the coke futures. With the 90 - day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the US and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", the main coke contract is expected to remain at a high level [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,245 points, down 3.00% intraday. The anti - involution policy in the coal industry is still affecting the market, and domestic coking coal production has declined. Considering the unfalsified short - term supply contraction expectation, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation [6][35]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry News - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will shift more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies and service industry business entity loan subsidy policies being implemented [8]. - The price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market has risen. The railway transportation of coal from ETT company to China is seriously behind schedule, but the daily transportation volume in August has increased by 39.68% compared to the first half of 2025, and further increases in railway transportation are planned [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, flat - price index) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 3.52% | - 13.02% | - 22.22% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, ex - warehouse price) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 4.23% | 5.71% | - 8.64% | - 13.95% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 3.48% | 3.48% | 0.85% | - 16.20% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 yuan/ton | 4.61% | 6.71% | 6.71% | - 12.64% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,630 yuan/ton | - 1.21% | - 1.21% | 6.54% | - 11.89% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,737.0 | - 2.83% | 1,823.0 | 1,731.0 | 35,677 | 1,075 | 38,707 | 1,917 | | Coking Coal | | 1,245.0 | - 3.00% | 1,328.0 | 1,230.5 | 2,684,599 | 486,510 | 685,537 | - 33,409 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mines, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2019 - 2025 [23][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [28][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The main contract is expected to remain at a high level due to stable supply - demand, cost support, tariff exemptions, and the approaching peak season [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility as the impact of the anti - involution policy on supply has not been falsified in the short term [6][35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 0.92% and an increase in volume and open interest. Supply disturbances support the strong upward movement of raw materials, driving up steel prices due to increased costs. However, in the context of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the upward driving force is also not strong. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.66% and a contraction in volume and open interest. Currently, in the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, inventory increases and the increase expands. Under the weak reality, the hot-rolled coil price continues to be under pressure, but the strong raw materials provide cost support. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level, with a daily decline of 0%, a decrease in volume, and an increase in open interest. At present, the demand for iron ore is weakening, and the supply recovery is also lower than expected. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are operating stably. However, the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the demand resilience is acceptable, which continues to support the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will be shifted more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption. The personal consumer loan fiscal discount policy and the service industry business entity loan discount policy will respectively focus on the demand and supply sides of consumption, aiming to achieve a virtuous cycle at both ends of supply and demand [6]. - In July this year, global new ship orders were "halved", but Chinese shipbuilding enterprises still ranked first in the industry. Although affected by factors such as US policies and market fluctuations, the order volume of Chinese shipbuilding enterprises decreased year-on-year, but their market share and leading position in the global shipbuilding industry are still significant [7]. - Australia postponed the release of the basic facts report and final ruling recommendations for the sunset review of anti-dumping on steel bars imported from China. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission is expected to complete the basic facts report of this investigation no later than December 10, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science no later than February 9, 2026 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products in different regions and the national average prices are provided, along with their price changes. For example, the Shanghai price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) is 3,330 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Shanghai price of hot-rolled coil (4.75mm) is 3,470 yuan, down 40 yuan [9]. - The prices of iron ore-related products such as 61.5% PB powder, Tangshan iron concentrate powder, and the freight rates from Australia and Brazil are also given, along with their price changes [9]. Futures Market - The closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore futures are presented. For example, the closing price of rebar futures is 3,222 yuan, with a decline of 0.92%, a trading volume of 1,236,428 lots, and an open interest of 1,652,593 lots [11]. Relevant Charts - The charts show the inventory changes of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore, including weekly changes, total inventory (steel mill + social inventory), and the inventory of 45 ports in China. They also display the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and the operating rate of independent electric furnaces [13][18][28]. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: The supply and demand pattern continues to weaken, and the inventory increase expands. Although the production reduction of hot-rolled coil due to plate mill maintenance has a certain positive effect, the sustainability of production reduction needs to be tracked. The demand for rebar has improved, but the sustainability of the off-season demand improvement is questionable. It is expected that the steel price will maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [37]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have increased. The production of rebar has increased, and the demand has also improved, but the downstream industry has not improved, and the sustainability of the demand improvement is uncertain. The fundamentals of hot-rolled coil continue to weaken, and the price is under pressure, but there is also resistance to decline. It is expected that the trend will continue to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - Iron ore: The supply and demand pattern has not changed much. The production of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling, but the profit situation of steel mills is still good, which supports the ore price. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has declined again, and the supply is weak. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high-level volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is implementing personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate demand and supply in the economy [1] - The focus of fiscal and financial policies is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1] - The Ministry of Finance will collaborate with relevant departments to effectively implement these measures, aiming to enhance consumer spending and service levels in the service industry [1]