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市场博弈加剧,煤焦高位回调
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 10:12
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: On August 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,737 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.83%. The spot market is optimistic as the sixth round of price hikes has begun. The supply and demand of coke are basically stable, and the supply disturbances of coking coal support the coke futures. With the 90 - day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the US and the approaching "Golden September and Silver October", the main coke contract is expected to remain at a high level [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: On August 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,245 points, down 3.00% intraday. The anti - involution policy in the coal industry is still affecting the market, and domestic coking coal production has declined. Considering the unfalsified short - term supply contraction expectation, coking coal futures are expected to maintain a high - level volatile operation [6][35]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Industry News - The focus of fiscal and financial policies will shift more towards benefiting people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policies and service industry business entity loan subsidy policies being implemented [8]. - The price of coking coal in the Jinzhong market has risen. The railway transportation of coal from ETT company to China is seriously behind schedule, but the daily transportation volume in August has increased by 39.68% compared to the first half of 2025, and further increases in railway transportation are planned [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, flat - price index) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 3.52% | - 13.02% | - 22.22% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade wet quenching coke, ex - warehouse price) | 1,480 yuan/ton | 4.23% | 5.71% | - 8.64% | - 13.95% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,190 yuan/ton | 3.48% | 3.48% | 0.85% | - 16.20% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,590 yuan/ton | 4.61% | 6.71% | 6.71% | - 12.64% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,630 yuan/ton | - 1.21% | - 1.21% | 6.54% | - 11.89% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,737.0 | - 2.83% | 1,823.0 | 1,731.0 | 35,677 | 1,075 | 38,707 | 1,917 | | Coking Coal | | 1,245.0 | - 3.00% | 1,328.0 | 1,230.5 | 2,684,599 | 486,510 | 685,537 | - 33,409 | [15] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [16][17][19]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of coking coal at mines, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2019 - 2025 [23][24][26]. - **Other Charts**: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel mill production, wash - coal plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [28][31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Coke**: The main contract is expected to remain at a high level due to stable supply - demand, cost support, tariff exemptions, and the approaching peak season [5][34]. - **Coking Coal**: The futures are expected to maintain high - level volatility as the impact of the anti - involution policy on supply has not been falsified in the short term [6][35].
市场情绪趋弱,钢矿震荡回落
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 10:12
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 市场情绪趋弱,钢矿震荡回落 核心观点 螺纹钢:主力期价再度走弱,录得 0.92%日跌幅,量仓扩大。现阶段, 供应扰动不断,支撑原料强势上行,因而成本抬升带动钢价走高,但供 需双增局面下螺纹钢基本面表现偏弱,钢价同样承压,上行驱动也不 强,预计钢价走势维持震荡运行态势,关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板:主力期价震荡回落,录得 0.66%日跌幅,量仓收缩。目前来 看,供需双弱局面下热卷基本面持续走弱,库存增加且增幅扩大,弱现 实下热卷价格继续承压,但原料强势带来成本支撑,预计走势延续震荡 运行态势,关注钢厂生产情况。 铁矿石:主力期价高位震荡,录得 0%日跌幅,量缩仓增。现阶段,铁 矿石需求在走弱,而供应回升也不及预期,供需双弱局面下矿石基本面 平稳运行,但钢厂盈利状况良好,需求韧性尚可,继续给予矿价支撑, 预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态势,关注成材表现情况。 (仅供参考,不构成任何投资建议) 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0 ...
财政部副部长廖岷:财政金融政策的着力点更多转向惠民生、促消费
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-13 02:22
Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance is implementing personal consumption loan interest subsidy policies and service industry loan interest subsidy policies to stimulate demand and supply in the economy [1] - The focus of fiscal and financial policies is shifting towards improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption [1] - The Ministry of Finance will collaborate with relevant departments to effectively implement these measures, aiming to enhance consumer spending and service levels in the service industry [1]