Group 1 - Goldman Sachs raises its forecast for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to three times this year, with expected cuts in September, October, and December, and anticipates two additional cuts of 25 basis points in 2026, lowering the terminal rate forecast to 3%-3.25% from 3.5%-3.75% [1][2] - The next rate cut is now expected in September, earlier than previously anticipated in December, due to evidence suggesting that the impact of tariffs on monthly inflation is less significant than expected [1] - The labor market appears healthy, but job searching has become more challenging, with short-term downward risks to employment numbers due to seasonal factors and changes in immigration policy [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 is entering its historically strongest month, with an average return of 1.67% in July since 1928 [5] Group 3 - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose significantly to 50.4 in June from 48.3 in May, exceeding market expectations, with notable increases in output and new orders indices [7] - The new export orders index improved from 46.2 in May to 49.4 in June, although external demand remains weak, leading to a slight growth in new orders [7] - The difference between the Caixin PMI and the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) PMI, which remains below 50, may be attributed to the different coverage of industries, with Caixin focusing more on export-oriented sectors [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Manufacturing industry: In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than that in May and the same as in April, returning above the critical point. The new orders index rebounded slightly above the critical point, and the production index returned to the expansion range, reaching a seven-month high. In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI in June rose to 49, higher than the expected 48.8 but still in the contraction range for four consecutive months. Job openings in May increased from 7.4 million in April to 7.769 million, far exceeding the economists' expectation of 7.3 million [1]. - Index performance: In the spot market, the three major A-share indexes showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.39% to close at 3457.75 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.24%. Most sector indexes rose, with the comprehensive, pharmaceutical and biological, banking, and non-ferrous metal industries leading the gains, and the computer, commercial retail, and communication industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remained at 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, Trump said that he would not consider extending the July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations, might not reach an agreement with Japan before July 9, and Japan might face a 30% or 35% tariff. There were two or three candidates for the Fed chair. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.91% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing down [1]. - Futures market: The basis discount of stock index futures deepened again. In terms of trading volume and open interest, only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased simultaneously [2]. Strategy - The latest US PMI and JOLTS job openings showed better-than-expected performance, leading to a decline in interest rate cut expectations and mixed closing of the three major US stock indexes. In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI rebounded above the boom-bust line, with significant improvements in new orders and production indexes. After the market rally, there is a divergence, which is expected to continue, and large-cap stocks may have a phased catch-up in the short term [3]. Chart Summary Macro Economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][7]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - Table 1 shows the daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on July 1, 2025, including the Shanghai Composite Index (+0.39%), Shenzhen Component Index (+0.11%), ChiNext Index (-0.24%), CSI 300 Index (+0.17%), SSE 50 Index (+0.16%), CSI 500 Index (+0.33%), and CSI 1000 Index (+0.28%) [12]. - Also include charts on the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [13]. Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - Table 2 shows the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures. Only the trading volume and open interest of IM increased, while those of IF, IH, and IC decreased [17]. - Table 3 shows the basis of stock index futures (futures - spot), with the basis discount of all contracts deepening [38]. - Table 4 shows the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, with various spreads showing different changes [43]. - Include charts on the open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net open interest of different stock index futures contracts [6].

Core Viewpoint - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 50.4, exceeding expectations of 49.3 and the previous value of 48.3 [1] Summary by Categories Economic Indicators - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI indicates a slight expansion in the manufacturing sector, as a reading above 50 signifies growth [1] - The increase from the previous month's value of 48.3 to 50.4 suggests a recovery in manufacturing activity [1] Market Implications - The better-than-expected PMI figure may signal improved economic conditions, potentially influencing investor sentiment positively [1] - This data could lead to adjustments in market forecasts and investment strategies within the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June in China is set to be released shortly [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article indicates that the Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June in China will be released at 09:45 Beijing time, which is a key indicator for assessing the health of the manufacturing sector in the country [1] Group 1 - The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a significant economic indicator that reflects the performance of the manufacturing industry in China [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Markit data shows that the May Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3, indicating weak manufacturing demand, while the PMI rose slightly to 51.1, with new orders increasing and the employment index reaching a six - month high, but corporate profits are still affected by cost pressures [78]. - On the supply side, blast furnace hot metal production declined, and the weakening demand impacted steel mill profits. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the weekly output of rebar decreased by 70,000 tons [78]. - In terms of demand, the weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 3.5% week - on - week, with building materials consumption down 5.9% and plate consumption down 2.0%. The inventory depletion speed has slowed down, and there may be inventory accumulation pressure in the future [78]. - Due to market information disturbances in the raw material market and the profit - taking of short - position funds, the coal - coke futures prices rebounded significantly, driving up the center of gravity of finished product prices. Short - term operations are recommended [78]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market 3.1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and related indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area also declined. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing decreased, and the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 4.1% year - on - year [7]. - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and from January to April, it increased by 4.7%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.0% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 5.8% [7]. - In April 2025, the national consumer price index decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the producer price index decreased by 2.7% year - on - year [7]. - The China - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks reached a substantial agreement, with both sides reducing tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. Both sides suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs" [8]. 3.1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend The SHIBOR rate decreased from 1.7450 on April 29, 2025, to 1.6200 on June 5, 2025, with a bullish outlook [20]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, and Basis 3.2.1 Macro - Money Quantity The SHIBOR rate decreased month - on - month, indicating a bullish trend [20]. 3.2.2 Macro - Money Price No specific content provided. 3.2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign No specific content provided. 3.2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain - The prices of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao were 3,120 yuan/ton, 3,210 yuan/ton, 734 yuan/ton, 1,340 yuan/ton, and 1,270 yuan/ton respectively. Their one - week, one - month, and one - year price changes varied [28]. 3.2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis The basis (spot - futures) of rebar on June 5, 2025, was 131 yuan/ton, showing certain fluctuations in the recent period [31]. 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand 3.3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.2 Blast Furnace Profits (for Various Steel Products) No specific content provided. 3.3.3 Blast Furnace Profits (Futures - Spot) No specific content provided. 3.3.4 Blast Furnace Operation The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises in China was 83.56% on June 6, 2025, slightly lower than 83.87% on May 30, 2025 [43]. 3.3.5 Electric Furnace Profits No specific content provided. 3.3.6 Electric Furnace Operation No specific content provided. 3.3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output No specific content provided. 3.3.8 Weekly Steel Output The total output of steel (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) on June 6, 2025, was 7.9162 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.024485822 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.001551365 [53]. 3.3.9 Weekly Rebar Output The weekly output of rebar on June 6, 2025, was 218,460 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [78]. 3.3.10 Steel Mill Steel Inventory The steel mill steel inventory on June 6, 2025, was 5.1777 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.10339752 and a week - on - week increase of 0.009376949 [60]. 3.3.11 Steel Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.13 Rebar Social Inventory No specific content provided. 3.3.14 Building Materials Transactions No specific content provided. 3.3.15 Consumption Indicator - Cement Price No specific content provided. 3.3.16 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Land Transaction Area No specific content provided. 3.3.17 Downstream High - Frequency Data - Real Estate Transactions No specific content provided. 3.4 Part 4: Future Outlook - The manufacturing demand is weak, and the supply of steel products has decreased slightly. The demand for steel products has declined, and the inventory depletion speed has slowed down. - Due to the rebound of coal - coke futures prices, the center of gravity of finished product prices has moved up. Short - term operations are recommended.

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided about the report's industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment of rebar and hot-rolled coil is boosted, showing wide fluctuations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 are 2,974 yuan/ton and 3,097 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 46 yuan/ton (1.57%) and 49 yuan/ton (1.61%). The trading volumes of RB2510 and HC2510 are 2,066,104 lots and 806,676 lots respectively, and the positions are 2,280,391 lots and 1,576,113 lots respectively, with position changes of -17,463 lots and -11,984 lots [3] - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions have increased to varying degrees, and the price of Tangshan steel billet has increased by 40 yuan/ton to 2,900 yuan/ton [3] - **Basis and Spread Data**: The basis of RB2510 and HC2510 has decreased, and some spreads have also changed [3] Macro and Industry News - In late May 2025, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 7.94 million tons, a decrease of 390,000 tons (4.7%) from the previous month, with an expanded decline; an increase of 1.35 million tons (20.5%) from the beginning of the year; and a decrease of 2.67 million tons (25.2%) from the same period last year [4] - On June 3, China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI for May 2025 was reported at 48.3, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024, with an expected value of 50.7 and a previous value of 50.4 [4][5] - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on May 29, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 59,700 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 138,700 tons, and the total of 5 major varieties increased by 84,100 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 231,700 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 73,800 tons, and the total of 5 major varieties decreased by 329,400 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 15,500 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 138,700 tons, and the total of 5 major varieties increased by 92,300 tons [5] - In mid-May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.199 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month; 19.82 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.982 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous month; and 21.24 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.124 million tons, a 1.9% increase from the previous month [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot-rolled coil is also 0, both indicating a neutral state [5]

宝城期货国债期货早报（2025 年 6 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 震荡 | 关税风险上升，宏观数据走弱 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均延续窄幅震荡整理。最新公布的财新制造业 PMI 大幅回落，说明 5 月抢 出口效应减弱，未来出口订单面临较大压力。6 月宏观政策预计稳增长和调结构 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The US accused China of violating the Geneva talks consensus, while China firmly opposed it and urged the US to respect facts and correct wrongdoings [2] - US President Trump raised the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50%, effective from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, Eastern Time, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - China's Caixin Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since October 2024 [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts for the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 was cut from 2.2% to 1.6%, and expected to be 1.5% in 2026. The global growth forecast for 2025 dropped to 2.9%, and inflation rose to 3.2% [3] - China's metallurgical - grade alumina production in May 2025 increased by 2.66% month - on - month and 4.06% year - on - year. The actual operating capacity decreased by 0.46% month - on - month, with an operating rate of 77.3%. The average profit in the alumina industry exceeded 400 yuan/ton as of May 30 [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, soybean meal, and PVC [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Night - session performance of commodity sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.65%, precious metals 30.82%, energy 2.35%, chemicals 12.74%, grains 1.51%, agricultural and sideline products 2.61%, oilseeds and fats 11.66%, soft commodities 2.38%, non - ferrous metals 19.98%, coking coal and steel ore 13.29% [4][5] Group 4: Asset Performance - Performance of major asset classes: Shanghai Composite Index daily gain 0.43%, monthly gain 0.43%, annual gain 0.30%; S&P 500 daily gain 0.58%, monthly gain 0.99%, annual gain 1.51%; Hang Seng Index daily gain 1.53%, monthly gain 0.96%, annual gain 17.21%; etc [7] - Performance of major commodities: WTI crude oil daily gain 1.36%, monthly gain 4.35%, annual loss 11.89%; London spot gold daily loss 0.83%, monthly gain 1.96%, annual gain 27.77%; etc [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese service sector is experiencing a slowdown in new order growth, reaching a 28-month low, while costs are rising, and service prices are declining, leading to a drop in industry optimism to a historical low point [2][11][14]. Service Sector Performance - In April, the Caixin Services PMI stood at 50.7, down from 51.9, indicating continued expansion but at the slowest pace since September of the previous year [2]. - The composite output index fell from 51.8 in March to 51.1 in April, marking a three-month low in production activity [5][15]. - New business volume growth has slowed, with the rate being the weakest in seven months, and new export orders have also contracted [5][16]. Employment and Cost Trends - The employment index in the service sector has fallen into contraction territory for the second consecutive month, reflecting cost-cutting measures by companies [9][14]. - Average input costs have risen, driven by increasing raw material prices and wages, yet service firms continue to lower selling prices for the third month in a row due to weak market demand [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Business optimism has declined to the second-lowest level since the survey began in November 2005, primarily due to concerns over trade policy changes [14]. - Despite the pessimistic outlook, companies expect that new marketing strategies and efficiency improvements will help drive growth in the next 12 months [14]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with external trade uncertainties significantly impacting business sentiment [19].