月线（长线多） 支撑：3255 周线（中线多） 支撑：4065 日线（波段多） 支撑：4260 四小时（短期） 关键分水岭4325-35区域，没有出现反转信号之前先看空（价格跌破4308后将确认进一步承压） 原油 黄金 月线（长线空） 阻力：62.70 周线（中线空） 阻力：58.60 日线（关注日线得失） 阻力：57.60 四小时（短期） 短线分水岭55.60-56.10区间震荡，待突破区间后跟随 【今日重点关注的财经数据与事件】2025年12月19日周五 ① 待定 摩尔线程举行首届MUSA开发者大会 ② 待定 日本央行公布利率决议 ③ 07:30 日本11月核心CPI年率 ④ 08:01 英国12月Gfk消费者信心指数 ⑤ 14:30 日本央行行长植田和男召开新闻发布会 ⑥ 15:00 德国1月Gfk消费者信心指数 ⑦ 15:00 德国11月PPI月率 ⑧ 15:00 英国11月公共部门净借款 ⑨ 15:00 英国11月季调后零售销售月率 ⑩ 17:00 欧元区10月季调后经常帐 ⑪ 19:00 英国12月CBI零售销售差值 ⑫ 21:30 加拿大10月零售销售月率 ⑬ 21:30 美联储威廉姆斯接受CN ...

Core Insights - The article discusses various support and resistance levels for different time frames in the market, indicating potential trading strategies based on these levels. Group 1: Market Analysis - Monthly support level is at 3230, indicating a long-term bullish outlook [1] - Weekly support level is at 3750, suggesting a medium-term bullish sentiment [2] - Daily resistance level is at 4060, indicating a potential short-term bearish trend [2] - Short-term price is fluctuating within the range of 3886-4036, with a critical threshold at 3970-3980; breaking this range will determine future price movements [2] Group 2: Commodity Focus - For oil, the current analysis suggests a focus on the short-term price movements and the importance of breaking the established range for future direction [2] - In the gold market, the weekly support level is at 60.70, while the daily resistance is at 59.60, indicating a potential bullish trend if the price breaks above the resistance [5] Group 3: Economic Events - Key economic events to watch include the 8th China International Import Expo and various PMI reports from China, France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK, which could impact market sentiment [5] - The U.S. will release important employment data and oil inventory figures, which are critical for assessing economic health and market direction [5]

Group 1 - The European Political Community summit is scheduled to take place [1] - Switzerland's CPI for September will be released at 14:30 [1] - The Eurozone's unemployment rate for August will be revealed at 17:00 [1] Group 2 - The number of Challenger job cuts in the U.S. for September will be disclosed at 19:30 [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 27 will be published at 20:30 [1] - The U.S. factory orders month-on-month for August will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 3 - EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending September 26 will be announced at 22:30 [1] - Federal Reserve's Logan will deliver a speech at 22:30 [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: A series of important financial data and events are scheduled for September 29, 2025, including the UK mortgage approvals and Eurozone industrial sentiment index [1][3] - Key Point 2: The Bank of England's mortgage approvals for August will be released at 16:30 [1][3] - Key Point 3: The Eurozone's industrial sentiment index and economic sentiment index for September will be announced at 17:00 [1][3] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Federal Reserve's Harker will participate in a panel discussion at 20:00 [1][3] - Key Point 2: The US pending home sales index for August will be published at 22:00 [1][3] - Key Point 3: The Dallas Fed's business activity index for September will be released at 22:30 [1][3] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Federal Reserve officials Williams and Moussalam will give speeches at 01:30 the next day [1][3] - Key Point 2: Federal Reserve's Bostic will engage in a dialogue at 06:00 [1][3]

Macroeconomic and Industry Insights - In August, the Ministry of Finance reported corporate income tax revenue of 31,477 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Personal income tax revenue reached 10,547 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [1] - Vehicle purchase tax revenue was 1,334 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 17.7% [1] - Stamp duty revenue totaled 2,844 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.4%, including securities transaction stamp duty revenue of 1,187 billion yuan, which surged by 81.7% year-on-year [1] Commodity Market Updates - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease by 8.05% from September 1-15, 2025, with a yield drop of 6.94% and an oil extraction rate decline of 0.21% [1] - The expected export volume for palm oil is 404,688 tons, down 24.7% compared to the same period last month [1] - Coking coal auction prices in Linfen market showed mixed results, with 290,000 tons sold and an average price increase of 54 yuan/ton for 7 companies, while 4 companies experienced an average price drop of 20 yuan/ton [1] - Lithium carbonate prices continue to rise, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index price at 73,116 yuan/ton, up 281 yuan/ton; average price at 73,150 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [1] - The average transaction price for multi-crystalline silicon n-type raw materials was 53,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.57% [1] - The average price for n-type granular silicon was 49,500 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.13% increase [1] Production Data - In August 2025, China's alumina production reached 7.925 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [1] - Cumulative alumina production from January to August was 60.523 million tons, up 8.2% year-on-year [1] - China's electrolytic aluminum production in August was 3.800 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.5% [1] - Cumulative electrolytic aluminum production from January to August was 30.138 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [1] - In August, China's copper product production was 2.222 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [1] - Cumulative refined copper production from January to August was 9.891 million tons, up 10.1% year-on-year [1] Market Predictions - Deutsche Bank has raised its gold price forecast for next year to $4,000 per ounce and silver price forecast to $45 per ounce [1] - As of September 15, total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased to 13.089 million barrels, with reductions in light, medium, and heavy oil inventories [1] - Attention is drawn to the Canadian central bank's interest rate decision scheduled for the evening of September 17 [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: Japan's unemployment rate for June will be released at 07:30 [1] - Key Point 2: China's July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be announced at 09:45 [1] - Key Point 3: The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:00 [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The UK Nationwide House Price Index for July will be published at 14:00 [1] - Key Point 2: France's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be available at 15:50 [1] - Key Point 3: Germany's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be released at 15:55 [1] - Key Point 4: Eurozone's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 16:00 [1] - Key Point 5: The UK's July Manufacturing PMI final value will be published at 16:30 [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Eurozone's July CPI year-on-year preliminary value will be released at 17:00 [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone's July CPI month-on-month preliminary value will be available at 17:00 [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: The US unemployment rate for July will be announced at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 2: The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for July will be released at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 3: The US average hourly earnings year-on-year for July will be published at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 4: The US average hourly earnings month-on-month for July will be available at 20:30 [1] - Key Point 5: The US July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value will be announced at 21:45 [1] - Key Point 6: The US July ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 7: The US July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value will be available at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 8: The US one-year inflation expectations final value for July will be published at 22:00 [1] - Key Point 9: The US June construction spending month-on-month will be released at 22:00 [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The total number of oil rigs in the US for the week ending August 1 will be announced at 01:00 the next day [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of the US July ADP employment data, which is a key indicator of employment trends in the economy [1] - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its interest rate decision early tomorrow morning, which could have significant implications for financial markets and economic conditions [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the upcoming release of important economic data, including the FHFA House Price Index for May and the S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index year-over-year [1] - Additionally, the June JOLTs Job Openings data will also be published, which is crucial for understanding labor market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Key Point 1: China's foreign exchange reserves for June are pending release, which may impact market sentiment and currency stability [1] - Key Point 2: Germany's industrial production for May is scheduled for release, with potential implications for the Eurozone's economic outlook [1] - Key Point 3: The UK Halifax house price index for June will be published, providing insights into the housing market trends [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: The Eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index for July will be released, which could indicate investor sentiment and economic expectations [1] - Key Point 2: Eurozone retail sales for May are set to be announced, reflecting consumer spending trends [1] - Key Point 3: The global supply chain pressure index for June in the US will be published, which may highlight supply chain challenges affecting various industries [1]