中国人民银行出台了《关于进一步加强数字人民币管理服务体系和相关金融基础设施建设的行动方 案》，新一代数字人民币计量框架、管理体系、运行机制和生态体系将于2026年1月1日正式启动实施。 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，"十五五"规划中提及稳步发展数字人民币，作为国家金融基 础设施，数字人民币有望优化货币政策传导效率、助力人民币国际化进程。数字人民币的发展以及应用 场景的拓宽也有望带来支付端的机会，相关行业及标的有望收益。 国金证券主要观点如下： 事件概况 《行动方案》明确了"账户体系+币串+智能合约"的数字化方案，提出升级现有账户体系，在新型账户 （数字人民币钱包）基础上推动新兴技术应用，提升人民币发行、流通、支付等各环节的数字化、智能 化水平，升级数字人民币智能合约生态服务平台，支撑构建智能合约开源生态体系。 风险提示：政策推进不及预期；数字货币技术风险；行业竞争风险。 数字人民币由M0时代走向M1时代 此前，数字人民币主要定位于M0，且不计付利息。据报道，《行动方案》明确：银行机构为客户实名 数字人民币钱包余额计付利息，遵守存款利率定价自律约定。将银行类数字人民币业务运营机构的数字 人民币纳入准备 ...

此前，受夏季美国劳动力市场突然恶化的推动，美联储在10月连续第二次降息。但随后，美联储内部关于12月降息前景长时间出现分歧，其中也包括 对政策有投票权进行投票的五名联储官员。不过，上周，随着一些主要联储官员发表讲话支持降息，市场对降息的预期重新走高。根据芝加哥商品交 易所的Fed Watch数据，市场预计本周三再降息的可能性为88%，远高于一个月前的不到67%。 上周美国经济数据喜忧参半，本周最新的劳动力市场数据也将成为投资者在美联储会议前关注的焦点。当地时间周二，美国终于将公布推迟的10月 JOLTS报告，该报告提供了关于招聘活动、裁员和员工辞职速度的解读。 对于此后的降息路径，经济学家们预计，美联储将在2026年3月和9月再次降息。随着大量统计机构从美国政府停摆中恢复，大量新数据也有望让美 联储更好地评估通胀和就业市场之间的紧张关系，到底进展如何。 此次会议也恰逢美国总统特朗普近期宣布将在明年初宣布美联储主席继任者。市场目前视凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）为最有可能的候选人。美国 银行的利率策略师、前纽约联储回购专家卡巴纳（Mark Cabana）表示，一旦新主席人选确定，市场将更多地根据新人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent narrowing of the "M2-M1 scissors difference" indicates an increase in the liquidity of funds, which is a significant economic signal reflecting improved economic vitality and potential recovery in the macroeconomic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Signals from Fund Liquidity - The narrowing of the M2-M1 growth rate difference from 8.7% at the end of last year to 2% suggests a positive change in the fund structure, indicating that more funds are transitioning from a "deposited" state to a "liquid" state, enhancing the efficiency of economic operations [1][3]. - The increase in M1, primarily composed of corporate demand deposits, reflects a recovery in business activities such as production, procurement, and investment expansion, signaling a warming of the real economy [3]. - The improvement in the currency structure among residents indicates a marginal increase in consumption willingness, laying the foundation for consumption recovery [3]. Group 2: Market Confidence and Behavior - The narrowing of the M2-M1 scissors difference serves as an important indicator of the restoration of market confidence, with businesses shifting from a focus on cash flow safety to business expansion and capacity layout [4]. - The recovery of consumer risk appetite and enhanced consumption willingness, driven by effective employment policies and the ongoing recovery of the service sector, contribute to increased fund liquidity [4]. - Although the restoration of confidence is a gradual process, the changes in the scissors difference indicate that some market participants are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The narrowing of the M2-M1 scissors difference demonstrates improved efficiency in the transmission of monetary policy, indicating that funds are flowing more smoothly into effective demand in the real economy [5]. - The continuous optimization of the monetary policy transmission mechanism allows financial resources to be more effectively converted into support for actual economic activities, which is crucial for consolidating current economic development achievements [5]. - Future improvements in the scissors difference are contingent upon sustained policy effects and solidifying the fundamentals of the economy, with expectations for ongoing high-quality economic development [5].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) held its 110th monetary policy committee meeting on September 23, 2025, emphasizing the need for appropriate monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and create a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The meeting highlighted an increase in macroeconomic regulation efforts this year, with a moderately loose monetary policy being implemented to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - Various monetary policy tools are being utilized to enhance the transmission efficiency of monetary policy, resulting in historically low social financing costs [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, with weakened growth momentum in the global economy, rising trade barriers, and divergent economic performances among major economies [1] - Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, China's economy is showing steady progress, with improved social confidence and new achievements in high-quality development [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The PBOC plans to continue implementing moderately loose monetary policies, strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, and enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, which is expected to significantly impact the stability of the economic system and development across various sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC plans to adjust the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions, utilizing various monetary policy tools such as open market operations [1][2]. - In October 2024, the PBOC established tools for "securities, fund, and insurance company swap convenience," with two operations totaling 105 billion yuan, and set a repurchase increase plan limit of nearly 300 billion yuan for the year [2]. Group 2: Impact on Different Sectors - The moderately loose monetary policy injects liquidity into the market, supporting stock market funding and reducing corporate financing costs, thereby enhancing the vitality of the real economy [3]. - In the real estate market, the policy alleviates financial pressure on property companies and stabilizes market expectations [3]. - Increased liquidity benefits the consumption sector, boosting consumer confidence and spending [3]. Group 3: Future Policy Optimization - Future monetary policy optimization may focus on two aspects: enhancing the design of policy tools for better targeting, such as implementing differentiated preferential policies for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and technology innovation companies [4]. - Balancing the prevention of systemic risks with supporting healthy market development will be crucial, including using counter-cyclical adjustment tools to smooth market fluctuations while avoiding excessive policy intervention [5].