Core Viewpoint - The recent narrowing of the "M2-M1 scissors difference" indicates an increase in the liquidity of funds, which is a significant economic signal reflecting improved economic vitality and potential recovery in the macroeconomic landscape [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Signals from Fund Liquidity - The narrowing of the M2-M1 growth rate difference from 8.7% at the end of last year to 2% suggests a positive change in the fund structure, indicating that more funds are transitioning from a "deposited" state to a "liquid" state, enhancing the efficiency of economic operations [1][3]. - The increase in M1, primarily composed of corporate demand deposits, reflects a recovery in business activities such as production, procurement, and investment expansion, signaling a warming of the real economy [3]. - The improvement in the currency structure among residents indicates a marginal increase in consumption willingness, laying the foundation for consumption recovery [3]. Group 2: Market Confidence and Behavior - The narrowing of the M2-M1 scissors difference serves as an important indicator of the restoration of market confidence, with businesses shifting from a focus on cash flow safety to business expansion and capacity layout [4]. - The recovery of consumer risk appetite and enhanced consumption willingness, driven by effective employment policies and the ongoing recovery of the service sector, contribute to increased fund liquidity [4]. - Although the restoration of confidence is a gradual process, the changes in the scissors difference indicate that some market participants are becoming more optimistic about the economic outlook [4]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Support - The narrowing of the M2-M1 scissors difference demonstrates improved efficiency in the transmission of monetary policy, indicating that funds are flowing more smoothly into effective demand in the real economy [5]. - The continuous optimization of the monetary policy transmission mechanism allows financial resources to be more effectively converted into support for actual economic activities, which is crucial for consolidating current economic development achievements [5]. - Future improvements in the scissors difference are contingent upon sustained policy effects and solidifying the fundamentals of the economy, with expectations for ongoing high-quality economic development [5].

Financing Trends - In October, net financing through corporate bonds reached CNY 246.9 billion, an increase of CNY 148.2 billion year-on-year[3] - Stock financing added CNY 69.6 billion, up CNY 41.2 billion year-on-year, marking eight consecutive months of year-on-year growth[3] - Trust loans, entrusted loans, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills collectively decreased by CNY 108.5 billion, a reduction of CNY 35.8 billion year-on-year[3] Credit and Loan Performance - New RMB loans in October were CNY 220 billion, down CNY 280 billion year-on-year, with the loan balance growth rate falling to approximately 6.5%[4] - Household loans decreased by CNY 360.4 billion, with short-term loans down CNY 286.6 billion and medium to long-term loans down CNY 70 billion[4] - Corporate loans increased by CNY 350 billion, primarily supported by bill financing, which net increased by CNY 500.6 billion, up CNY 331.2 billion year-on-year[4] Monetary Supply and Growth Rates - The stock of social financing grew by 8.5% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from September[4] - M2 growth rate was 8.2%, down from 8.4% in September, while M1 growth rate fell to 6.2% from 7.2%[4] - The M2-M1 gap slightly increased to 2.0%, compared to 1.2% in the previous month, indicating a continued trend of liquidity preference[6] Deposit Dynamics - Total deposits increased by approximately CNY 610 billion in October, a year-on-year increase of only CNY 10 billion[6] - Household deposits decreased by CNY 1.34 trillion, while non-financial corporate deposits fell by CNY 1.09 trillion[6] - Non-bank financial institution deposits rose by CNY 1.85 trillion, indicating a "deposit migration" phenomenon[6]

Core Insights - The overall financial data for September indicates stability, with significant growth in both broad (M2) and narrow (M1) money supply, supporting economic recovery [2][6][9] - The increase in RMB loans and social financing reflects strong support for the real economy, although there are signs of seasonal adjustments in credit issuance [3][9] Monetary Supply - As of September, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, growing by 8.4% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, up 7.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates improved liquidity and a more active economy, with M2-M1 "scissors difference" at its lowest in nearly four years [7][9] Loan Growth - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, with September alone contributing 1.29 trillion yuan, although this was 300 billion yuan less than the previous year [3][4] - Corporate loans in September rose by 1.22 trillion yuan, while household loans increased by 389 billion yuan, indicating a mixed performance across sectors [4][5] Social Financing - The total social financing scale reached 437.08 trillion yuan by the end of September, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7%, although the monthly increase was lower than in previous years [9][10] - The decline in new social financing in September was attributed to reduced government bond issuance and lower corporate loan growth compared to the previous year [9][10] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the fourth quarter will see continued supportive monetary policy to bolster economic recovery, with expectations of new policy financial tools to support corporate loans [10][11] - The stability and sustainability of retail loan growth will depend on improvements in employment and income levels, which are crucial for boosting consumer demand [5][10]

Group 1: Price Trends - Food prices have been in negative territory for several months, but consumer goods are driving a rebound in CPI, marking the first divergence since food prices turned negative[1] - In September, the PPI for non-ferrous, black, and energy sectors all saw year-on-year increases, with black PPI showing the largest rise[1] - The core CPI reached a new high for the year at 1%, indicating potential structural policy tools may be more effective moving forward[1] Group 2: Financial Data Insights - The divergence between social financing (社融) growth and loan balance growth that began in December 2024 appears to have ended, suggesting a return to synchronized growth[1] - The M2-M1 spread has narrowed further, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds, which historically correlates with positive stock market performance[1] - In September, M2 growth slowed while M1 growth increased, reflecting a more active financial environment[1] Group 3: Economic Policy Implications - Current inflation levels are under pressure, necessitating a continuation of loose monetary policy, as both CPI and PPI remain in negative territory[1] - The government's CPI target for 2025 is set at around 2%, the lowest since 2003, indicating a cautious approach to inflation management[1] - The ongoing anti-involution policies are expected to support PPI recovery, with potential for CPI to turn positive in Q4 2025[1] Group 4: Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks and unexpected increases in international oil prices are highlighted as potential threats to economic stability[1]

Core Insights - The growth rates of M2 and social financing scale remain high, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [1][9] - The financial statistics report has been consolidated into a single document, reflecting a more streamlined approach to data presentation [1] Monetary Supply and Financing - As of September 2025, M2 balance reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4%, which is 1.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1][9] - The social financing scale stock was 437.08 trillion yuan, growing by 8.7% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2][9] - The increase in social financing scale for the first three quarters totaled 30.09 trillion yuan, which is 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3] Direct Financing and Government Bonds - The acceleration of government bond issuance and improved access to corporate bond and equity financing have significantly contributed to the growth of social financing [2][3] - Net financing from government bonds in the first three quarters was approximately 11.46 trillion yuan, which is 4.28 trillion yuan more than last year [2] Loan Demand and Structure - The demand for loans from residents has shown signs of recovery, supported by a series of monetary policy measures [4][7] - As of September, the balance of RMB loans was 270.39 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.6% [5][8] - The structure of loans is improving, with a notable increase in small and micro-enterprise loans and medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector [7][8] Interest Rates and Economic Activity - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, which is about 40 basis points lower than the same period last year [8] - The M1-M2 spread has narrowed to -1.2%, indicating increased activity in corporate operations and a recovery in personal investment and consumption demand [9][10] Policy Outlook - The current macroeconomic policy is shifting towards enhancing people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, with a focus on social welfare spending [10][11] - Future fiscal expenditures are expected to prioritize improving living standards, including healthcare, education, and housing security [11]

Group 1 - In July, China's new social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a decrease in RMB loans by 50 billion yuan and an increase in RMB deposits by 500 billion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [1][4] - From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][8] - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [11][12] Group 2 - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.31 trillion yuan from January to July, while foreign currency loans decreased by 725 billion yuan [8][14] - The balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [4][13] - The M2-M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4][12] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China indicated that monthly financial data should not be overly emphasized as they may not accurately reflect the economic activity and financial support for the real economy [6] - The traditional credit demand is decreasing while the demand in new growth areas is increasing, suggesting that financial institutions need to adapt their strategies [7][12] - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending in July was 1.45%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that government bonds continue to support the growth of social financing, but the strength of this support may gradually weaken due to remaining quota considerations, making the ability of credit to take over crucial for social financing performance [1][4][6] Group 2 - In the first seven months of 2025, the social financing scale increased by 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, reaching a total balance of 431.26 trillion yuan by the end of July, marking a year-on-year growth of 9%, the highest in nearly 17 months [2][4] - Government bonds net financing in the first seven months amounted to 8.9 trillion yuan, which is 4.88 trillion yuan more than the previous year [3][4] - In July, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 383.9 billion yuan more than the same month last year, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth [4][6] Group 3 - The increase in government bond financing in July was significant, with net financing of approximately 1.24 trillion yuan, which is about 560 billion yuan more than the previous year, continuing to be the main driver of social financing [4][6] - In the first seven months of 2025, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan, with the loan balance reaching 268.51 trillion yuan by the end of July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% [4][5] Group 4 - The "deposit regularization" issue improved in July, with the broad money (M2) balance reaching 329.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [6][7] - The narrowing of the M2-M1 "scissors difference" indicates that enterprises are holding more "liquid money," which is a positive sign for financial liquidity [6][7] Group 5 - Experts suggest that the impact of debt replacement on loan data remains significant, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds replacing loans, affecting loan growth by about 1 percentage point [4][5] - Future policy measures, including new rounds of stimulus and personal consumption loan interest subsidies, are expected to boost credit performance [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - The U.S. Treasury Secretary believes that the U.S. interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level. China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 5 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. The central bank's media suggests not over - hyping single - month credit fluctuations. The expectation of a September interest rate cut is strengthened, and the Secretary's statement reinforces the market's anticipation of a larger cut. The index's strength is due to positive policies, continuous capital inflows, and frequent event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may oscillate to wash out floating chips, but the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Treasury Bonds - Whether the bond market will continue to rebound or fall needs further observation. The bond market has lacked profit - making opportunities recently, leading to the outflow of some allocation funds. A short - term upward movement may even stimulate more outflows. The bond market may fluctuate in both directions for some time, providing opportunities for flexible funds [3]. Strategy Recommendations Index Futures - Buy on dips [2]. Treasury Bonds - Expect a volatile market [4]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract of the CSI 300 index futures rose 1.02%, the SSE 50 index futures rose 0.35%, the CSI 500 index futures rose 1.78%, and the CSI 1000 index futures rose 1.77% [6]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.04%, the 5 - year main contract rose 0.05%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.14%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.03% [7]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The RSI indicator shows that the market is approaching a short - term high [6]. Treasury Bonds - The MACD indicator suggests that the T main contract may weaken [8]. Data Table - On August 13, 2025, the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various index and treasury bond futures contracts are provided, including CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year, 5 - year, 30 - year, and 2 - year futures [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's social financing and credit data in July showed that the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. Analyzing economic and financial situations does not require excessive attention to single - month data [6][7]. - The August USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, tightening the supply - demand balance sheet. Both old and new crop balance sheets tightened, and there is still room for a decline in US soybean production. If the balance sheet remains tight, there is upside potential for US soybeans, which will also open up upside space for domestic soybean meal futures prices [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, upstream factories are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is weakening, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation, which will drive the price down. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy [10]. - For the container shipping index (European line), near - month special - price cabins and the expectation of extra ships in the distant end have weakened market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand balance is tending to be loose, and the freight rate is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - From January to July, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In July, the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and in July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. The increase in RMB deposits in the first seven months was 18.44 trillion yuan, and in July, the new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan. At the end of July, the broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than the previous month [7]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The tariff misunderstanding affected the price spread, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. - Silver: There was a slight rebound, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: Lacked obvious drivers, and the price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][26][28]. - Zinc: The price was under pressure, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][29][30]. - Lead: The domestic spot market weakened, and the price was under pressure. The trend strength was 0 [14][32]. - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][35][39]. - Aluminum: Traded in a range, alumina had a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was 0 [14][40][42]. - Nickel: The support logic at the ore end was weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited the price elasticity. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. - Stainless steel: The multi - and short - side game intensified, and the steel price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate lithium: The auction price was slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound trend might continue. The trend strength was 0 [14][48][50]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment cooled down, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][51][54]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][52][54]. - Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly, and the trend strength was 0 [14][56][57]. - Rebar: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][59][63]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][60][63]. - Ferrosilicon: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Silicomanganese: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Coke: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. - Coking coal: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The origin had strong supply and demand, and a long - position strategy at low prices was recommended [14][17]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans were strong, and soybean oil traded at a high level with fluctuations [14][17]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal might follow with a bullish bias [14][17]. - Corn: Traded in a range [14][17]. - Sugar: Traded with an upward trend [14][17]. - Cotton: The expectation of a bumper new crop limited the increase in futures prices [14][17]. - Eggs: Adjusted with fluctuations [14][17]. - Hogs: The spot market was weak [14][17]. - Peanuts: The near - term contract was strong, and the far - term contract was weak [14][17]. 3.2.5 Others - LPG: The market valuation was low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [14][17]. - Propylene: Supply and demand tightened, and the price had some support [14][17]. - PVC: Traded with a weak bias [14][17]. - Fuel oil: Continued to decline, and the short - term weakness persisted [14][17]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Traded with a weak bias at night, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market was temporarily stable [14][17]. - Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [14][17]. - Short - fiber: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Bottle chips: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Offset printing paper: Traded at a low level, and it was difficult to rise [14][17]. - Pure benzene: Traded with a short - term bullish bias [14][17].

Group 1 - The central bank reported that as of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [1] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 is 3.2%, which has significantly narrowed compared to the peak in September of the previous year [1] - The narrowing of the M2-M1 gap indicates an increase in the liquidity of funds and improved circulation efficiency, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the market and boosting confidence [1] Group 2 - M1 primarily represents the operating funds of enterprises, with large enterprises typically having strong financing capabilities and focusing on the efficiency and profitability of fund usage [2] - In contrast, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) tend to reserve more operating funds to cope with uncertainties, which can affect M1 growth [2] - The competition in certain sectors has led to large enterprises delaying payments to SMEs, which occupies a portion of the funds that could otherwise be used for operational liquidity, thereby impacting M1 growth [2]