Group 1 - In July, China's new social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a decrease in RMB loans by 50 billion yuan and an increase in RMB deposits by 500 billion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan [1][4] - From January to July, the cumulative increase in social financing was 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [3][8] - As of the end of July, the total social financing stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% [11][12] Group 2 - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.31 trillion yuan from January to July, while foreign currency loans decreased by 725 billion yuan [8][14] - The balance of broad money (M2) was 329.94 trillion yuan at the end of July, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while narrow money (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% [4][13] - The M2-M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [4][12] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China indicated that monthly financial data should not be overly emphasized as they may not accurately reflect the economic activity and financial support for the real economy [6] - The traditional credit demand is decreasing while the demand in new growth areas is increasing, suggesting that financial institutions need to adapt their strategies [7][12] - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB lending in July was 1.45%, lower than both the previous month and the same period last year [18]

金融期货日报 股指 ◆ 核心观点： 美国财长贝森特：美国利率水平应比当前低 150 到 175 个基点。中国 7 月新 增社融 1.16 万亿元，人民币贷款减少 500 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差缩小。央行 主管媒体：不宜过度炒作单月信贷增量波动。9 月降息预期继续巩固，贝森特 强化市场降息幅度。指数走强，是政策暖风频吹、资金活水不断、事件催化密 集等因素正反馈不断强化的结果。短线达新高后，或借高点震荡洗盘，但中 期趋势向上未改，有仓位的可继续持有或回调锁仓，无仓位可考虑逢回调做 多。 ◆ 策略建议： 逢低做多。 国债 ◆ 核心观点： 后续市场延续反弹还是延续下跌通道仍然需要观察，而且从近期现券市场情 况看，债市持续缺乏赚钱效应，导致一部分配置资金的持续流出，短线行情 走强反而刺激更多资金的流出。近期债市可能还会维持一段时间的双向波动， 对于头寸灵活的资金来看有波动总比没有波动更有机会。 ◆ 策略建议： 震荡运行。 研究咨询部 2025-08-14 公司资质 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业 务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1 号 金融期货团队 研究员： 彭博 从业编号：F3080600 投资咨询编号：Z0021 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China's social financing and credit data in July showed that the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed. Analyzing economic and financial situations does not require excessive attention to single - month data [6][7]. - The August USDA report was bullish for US soybeans, tightening the supply - demand balance sheet. Both old and new crop balance sheets tightened, and there is still room for a decline in US soybean production. If the balance sheet remains tight, there is upside potential for US soybeans, which will also open up upside space for domestic soybean meal futures prices [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, upstream factories are gradually resuming production, market sentiment is weakening, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation, which will drive the price down. It is advisable to adopt a short - selling strategy [10]. - For the container shipping index (European line), near - month special - price cabins and the expectation of extra ships in the distant end have weakened market sentiment. The fundamental supply - demand balance is tending to be loose, and the freight rate is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [11][12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Data - From January to July, China's cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In July, the increase in social financing scale was 1.16 trillion yuan, social financing scale stock was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and in July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan. The increase in RMB deposits in the first seven months was 18.44 trillion yuan, and in July, the new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan. At the end of July, the broad - money (M2) balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%, the narrow - money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%, and the M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than the previous month [7]. 3.2 Commodity Analysis 3.2.1 Precious Metals - Gold: The tariff misunderstanding affected the price spread, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. - Silver: There was a slight rebound, and the trend strength was 1 [14][19][24]. 3.2.2 Base Metals - Copper: Lacked obvious drivers, and the price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][26][28]. - Zinc: The price was under pressure, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][29][30]. - Lead: The domestic spot market weakened, and the price was under pressure. The trend strength was 0 [14][32]. - Tin: Traded in a range, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][35][39]. - Aluminum: Traded in a range, alumina had a slight decline, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was 0 [14][40][42]. - Nickel: The support logic at the ore end was weakened, and the smelting - end logic limited the price elasticity. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. - Stainless steel: The multi - and short - side game intensified, and the steel price fluctuated. The trend strength was 0 [14][43][47]. 3.2.3 Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate lithium: The auction price was slightly at a discount to the market price, and the range - bound trend might continue. The trend strength was 0 [14][48][50]. - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment cooled down, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][51][54]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to news - related disturbances, and the trend strength was - 1 [14][52][54]. - Iron ore: Fluctuated repeatedly, and the trend strength was 0 [14][56][57]. - Rebar: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][59][63]. - Hot - rolled coil: Fluctuated widely, and the trend strength was 0 [14][60][63]. - Ferrosilicon: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Silicomanganese: The sector sentiment was weak, and it fluctuated widely. The trend strength was 0 [14][64][66]. - Coke: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. - Coking coal: Traded with a bullish bias, and the trend strength was not explicitly stated but inferred as bullish from the description [14][67]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The origin had strong supply and demand, and a long - position strategy at low prices was recommended [14][17]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans were strong, and soybean oil traded at a high level with fluctuations [14][17]. - Soybean meal: US soybeans closed higher, and Dalian soybean meal might follow with a bullish bias [14][17]. - Corn: Traded in a range [14][17]. - Sugar: Traded with an upward trend [14][17]. - Cotton: The expectation of a bumper new crop limited the increase in futures prices [14][17]. - Eggs: Adjusted with fluctuations [14][17]. - Hogs: The spot market was weak [14][17]. - Peanuts: The near - term contract was strong, and the far - term contract was weak [14][17]. 3.2.5 Others - LPG: The market valuation was low, and attention should be paid to the risk of position reduction [14][17]. - Propylene: Supply and demand tightened, and the price had some support [14][17]. - PVC: Traded with a weak bias [14][17]. - Fuel oil: Continued to decline, and the short - term weakness persisted [14][17]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Traded with a weak bias at night, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market was temporarily stable [14][17]. - Container shipping index (European line): Hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [14][17]. - Short - fiber: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Bottle chips: Traded in a short - term range, and a long - PF and short - PR strategy was recommended [14][17]. - Offset printing paper: Traded at a low level, and it was difficult to rise [14][17]. - Pure benzene: Traded with a short - term bullish bias [14][17].

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the central bank shows that as of the end of July, the broad money supply (M2) reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%. The narrowing gap between M2 and M1 indicates an improvement in the liquidity of funds and the efficiency of circulation, reflecting effective market stabilization policies and a recovery in economic activities [3][4]. Group 1 - As of the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8% [3] - M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.6% [3] - The difference in growth rates between M2 and M1 is 3.2%, significantly narrowed compared to the high point in September of the previous year [3] Group 2 - The new statistical criteria for M1 were implemented in January, showing a comparable M1 growth rate of -3.3% as of September 2024 [3] - The narrowing M2-M1 gap reflects enhanced fund activation and improved circulation efficiency, aligning with the trend of economic recovery [4] - M1 primarily represents the operating funds of enterprises, with large enterprises focusing on fund efficiency, while small and medium-sized enterprises tend to retain more liquid funds due to weaker financing capabilities [4][5]

13日，中国人民银行公布金融数据显示： 中国1至7月社会融资规模增量累计为23.99万亿元，比上年同期多5.12万亿元。结合前值计算可得，7月社融规模增量为1.16万亿元。 社会融资规模存量为431.26万亿元，同比增长9%。 前七个月人民币贷款增加12.87万亿元，7月人民币贷款少增500亿元。 前七个月人民币存款增加18.44万亿元，7月新增人民币存款5000亿元。 7月末，广义货币(M2)余额329.94万亿元，同比增长8.8%。狭义货币(M1)余额111.06万亿元，同比增长5.6%。M2-M1剪刀差为3.2个百 分点，较上月缩小了0.5个百分点。 中国7月新增社融1.16万亿元，人民币贷款少增500亿元，新增人民币存款5000亿元，住户存款减少1.11万亿元。M2-M1剪刀差为3.2个百分点，较上月缩 小了0.5个百分点。 中国央行主管的《金融时报》称，月度金融数据往往被视为观察阶段性经济金融运行情况的窗口，但随着我国经济进入高质量发展阶段，单月贷款读数 通常不足以准确反映经济活跃程度，也难以完整体现金融支持实体经济的力度，分析经济金融形势时无需对单月数据过度关注，更不宜过度炒作单月信 贷增量读数波 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, both social financing and credit showed seasonal rebounds with significant growth. The stock of social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan. M2 maintained stable growth, M1 increased significantly, and M0 maintained high growth [3]. - The significant growth of social financing this month was stronger than in previous years, with the increased issuance of government bonds being the core driving force. The structure of new social financing changed from being dominated by government bonds in the previous month to "credit - based, government bonds as a supplement" [4]. - New credit increased seasonally and was slightly higher than the same period last year, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans, and medium - and long - term corporate loans also increased [4]. - The sharp rise of M1 this month may be due to factors such as the May interest rate cut, the central bank's use of outright reverse repurchases, the decline of the ten - year Treasury bond interest rate, and the acceleration of fiscal expenditure flowing into the real economy [5]. - In terms of corporate direct financing, there was differentiation among industries, and attention should be paid to the decline of real estate financing. Corporate bill financing decreased significantly, indicating an improvement in the corporate financing environment [7][8]. - The problem of insufficient currency activation has improved under the continuous acceleration of government leverage, but there are still concerns about the corporate balance sheet. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 has narrowed, but the expansion of the balance sheet of large - scale industrial enterprises depends on debt rather than profit [8]. - The policy combination of "fiscal leadership + monetary support" has achieved significant results. In the future, each sector has room for further development, and the enterprise sector may take over the social financing in the future [9]. - Currently, it is a critical transition period of "government - driven → enterprise takeover → household follow - up". The rebound of M1 this month may be a verification point of the start of recovery, and policy support is still necessary [10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Data Observation - **Social Financing and Credit**: In June, the stock of social financing increased by 4.2 trillion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 0.91 trillion yuan. RMB loans increased by 2.24 trillion yuan, with an year - on - year increase of 110 billion yuan. The growth of social financing was mainly driven by the high - growth of government bond financing year - on - year [3][4]. - **Money Supply**: M2 increased by 8.3% year - on - year, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month. M1 increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 2.3 percentage points higher than last month. M0 increased by 12% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage points slower than last month [3]. - **New Credit Structure**: New credit increased seasonally, mainly driven by short - term corporate loans, and medium - and long - term corporate loans also increased. On the supply side, banks tend to increase short - term corporate loans to meet the end - of - quarter assessment requirements. On the demand side, the PMI production and new order indexes in June showed that production and orders were recovering [4]. Depth Perspective - **Fiscal Deposits**: The financing volume of government bonds was slightly lower than in previous years, and the new fiscal deposits were at a historically low level. The difference between new government bond financing and fiscal deposits increased, indicating that government funds were flowing into the real economy [6]. - **Corporate Direct Financing**: There was differentiation among industries in corporate direct financing. The net financing of energy, materials, optional consumption, and information technology industries increased year - on - year, while that of medical, industrial, communication services, and real estate industries decreased. Attention should be paid to the decline of real estate financing [7][8]. - **Bill Financing**: Corporate bill financing decreased significantly this month, and there was no obvious bill - padding phenomenon. The bill financing interest rate center decreased compared with May, indicating an improvement in the corporate financing environment [8]. Future Outlook - **Overall Economic Pattern**: The problem of insufficient currency activation has improved, but there are still concerns about the corporate balance sheet. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 has narrowed, but the expansion of the balance sheet of large - scale industrial enterprises depends on debt rather than profit. The current cycle still depends on policy support to boost household currency activity [8]. - **Policy Level**: The policy combination of "fiscal leadership + monetary support" has achieved significant results. In the future, the government sector can release fiscal space through debt resolution, the enterprise sector can improve its ability to increase leverage through debt structure optimization, and the household sector is in a weak recovery state [9]. - **Bond Market**: Currently, it is still a liquidity - loose pattern dominated by policies. Although social financing has entered the fiscal effect verification period, the weak fundamentals remain unchanged. The downward adjustment space of the bond market may be limited, and investors should actively seize the opportunities brought by emotional changes [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant changes in the flow of funds in the financial market, driven by a decline in deposit interest rates, leading to a "deposit migration" effect where individuals and businesses are shifting their funds to higher-yielding financial products like money market funds and cash management products [1][4][6]. Group 1: Deposit Growth - As of the end of May, the balance of RMB deposits reached 316.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with new deposits in May amounting to nearly 2.2 trillion yuan, which is 500 billion yuan more than the same period last year [1][3]. - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.19 trillion yuan in May, marking the highest level for the same period in nearly a decade, with a year-on-year increase of 300 billion yuan [3][4]. - The total scale of bank wealth management products grew by 340 billion yuan month-on-month in May, reaching 31.6 trillion yuan, further evidencing the "deposit migration" effect [6]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Deposit Changes - Analysts attribute the significant changes in non-bank deposits to increased market activity and shifts in fund flows, particularly due to the recent round of deposit rate cuts, which has led to a decrease in deposit yields [4][5]. - The decline in deposit rates has prompted residents and businesses to move their funds from demand deposits to higher-yielding financial products, thus driving the substantial growth in non-bank deposits [6][10]. - The increase in household deposits by 470 billion yuan in May, along with a decrease in non-financial corporate deposits by 417.6 billion yuan, reflects a complex interplay of seasonal factors and economic conditions [8][9]. Group 3: Loan Growth Dynamics - In contrast to the significant increase in deposits, RMB loans rose by 620 billion yuan in May, which is 330 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a divergence in deposit and loan growth [12]. - The disparity in monthly growth rates of deposits and loans is seen as a reflection of the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in financing structures [12][14]. - The overall average growth rates for deposits and loans since 2021 have been approximately 9% and 9.6%, respectively, suggesting a long-term balance despite monthly fluctuations [12][13].

Group 1: Credit and Financing Data - In May 2025, new RMB loans increased by 620 billion, which is 330 billion less year-on-year, with the stock growth rate falling by 0.1 percentage points to 7.1%[3] - Household loans increased by 54 billion, down 21.7 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans decreasing by 20.8 billion and long-term loans increasing by 74.6 billion[3] - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion, down 210 billion year-on-year, with short-term loans up by 110 billion and long-term loans up by 330 billion[5] Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - Social financing increased by 2.3 trillion in May, up 227.1 billion year-on-year, with a month-end growth rate steady at 8.7%[9] - The largest contributions to social financing came from government bonds (1.4633 trillion, up 236.7 billion year-on-year) and corporate bonds, while RMB loans were the main drag[9] - M2 growth rate remained flat at 7.9%, while M1 growth rate increased to 2.3%, up 0.8 percentage points[11] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank aims to promote reasonable price recovery as a key consideration for monetary policy, maintaining a loose policy tone throughout 2025[2] - A 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis point interest rate cut are expected within the year[15] - The transition of monetary policy focus to price stability reflects the need to counter economic downturn pressures and external uncertainties[14]

Group 1: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - In April, China's social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan, totaling 16.34 trillion yuan in the first four months, which is 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1] - The broad money supply (M2) reached 325.17 trillion yuan, growing by 8% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 109.14 trillion yuan, up by 1.5% [1] - The widening M2-M1 gap indicates overall market liquidity is ample, but the flow of funds into the real economy needs improvement [2] Group 2: International Relations and Trade - China will implement a visa-free policy for citizens of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Uruguay from June 1, 2025, facilitating business and tourism [3] - The expansion of China's "visa-free circle" is expected to boost tourism and foreign investment, as more international visitors gain direct experience of China [4] Group 3: Shipping and Trade Volume - Container bookings from China to the U.S. surged by 277% to 21,530 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) following the recent tariff agreement, indicating a strong rebound in trade activity [5] - The increase in shipping demand is attributed to traders taking advantage of the temporary tariff suspension to stock up on goods [6] Group 4: Venture Capital and Technology Financing - Seven Chinese government departments announced the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund to support long-term investments in technology [7] - The initiative aims to enhance financing for technology companies, particularly in their early stages, addressing the challenges of converting research into marketable products [8] Group 5: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - Tencent reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q1, reaching 180 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7% to 47.82 billion yuan [9] - Despite strong performance in gaming and advertising, Tencent's e-commerce strategy faces challenges, with unclear long-term planning [10] Group 6: Real Estate Financing - Vanke received a loan of up to 15.52 billion yuan from its largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, as part of ongoing financial support amid market challenges [11] - The cumulative loans from Shenzhen Metro to Vanke have reached nearly 12 billion yuan this year, highlighting the ongoing financial strain on Vanke [12] Group 7: U.S. Treasury Yields and Economic Outlook - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield approached 5%, reflecting concerns over rising fiscal deficits and the impact of proposed tax cuts [13] - The relationship between rising Treasury yields and the dollar's strength is weakening, indicating market uncertainty regarding U.S. economic prospects [14] Group 8: Stock Market Trends - The Chinese stock market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.68% amid mixed sector performance [15] - Consumer stocks showed resilience, while technology sectors faced adjustments, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Data**: In the first four months of 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. In April, the social financing scale increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans of 280 billion yuan. At the end of April, M2 balance was 325.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8%, and M1 balance was 109.14 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The M2 - M1 scissors - gap widened to 6.5 percentage points [8]. - **Alumina**: Near - end spot supply and demand are tight, with resonance in domestic and foreign markets. The price rose due to macro sentiment and trading factors. The short - term supply is tight, and the sustainability depends on the dynamic changes of operating capacity. In the medium - to - long - term, if the capacity event of converting aluminum hydroxide to alumina does not lead to industry - wide capacity regulation, the overall supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged [10][11]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Shipping companies' price hikes and the easing of Sino - US tariffs have boosted market sentiment. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to hold 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [12]. - **Palm Oil**: Supported by the sentiment of US biodiesel, international oils are oscillating strongly within a range. The selling pressure from April to May in the producing areas has been realized, and the pricing expectations for the next stage still come from the复产 in the producing areas and the industrial demand for US soybean oil. The risks in the producing areas have not been fully released before July, but the international soybean oil has strong support, so palm oil rebounds strongly within the range. It is necessary to pay attention to the upward pressure from the loosening of its own supply - demand and the sustainability of the US soybean oil sentiment bubble [12][13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Affected by macro - sentiment, the fundamentals are still weak. The export demand is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The downstream sentiment in the spot market is pessimistic, and the inventory is at a high level, suppressing price increases. The cost support is weakening, and the price rebound space is limited [14]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold broke below the support level, and silver oscillated downward. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][22][25]. - **Copper**: The dollar first declined and then rebounded, restricting price increases. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][27][29]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum is running strongly, and alumina has rebounded significantly. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. On May 14, Vietnam and Western Australia had alumina transactions [30][32]. - **Zinc**: There is short - term support. The trend intensity is 0, showing a neutral outlook [17][33][34]. - **Lead**: It is oscillating within a range. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][36][37]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][40][44]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, news affects sentiment, and the fundamentals change little. For stainless steel, the social inventory is increasing marginally, and the cost expectation supports the price. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][45][49]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward space is limited. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][50][53]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is affected by market sentiment, and polysilicon requires attention to spot price quotations. The trend intensity of both is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17][54][57]. Energy and Chemicals - **Iron Ore**: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating widely. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][58]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - sentiment, the prices are rising. The trend intensity of both is 1, indicating a bullish outlook [17][60][62]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: Steel mills are inquiring about prices for procurement, and both are oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][64][66]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has initiated a first - round price cut and is oscillating widely. Coking coal is also oscillating widely. The trend intensity of both is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][68][72]. - **Steam Coal**: The coal mine inventory is increasing, and it is oscillating weakly. The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17][73][75]. - **Log**: Boosted by macro - expectations, it is oscillating repeatedly [76]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: For palm oil, the pressure has been released, and there is support below. For soybean oil, affected by the hype of US biodiesel, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [20]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean**: Soybean meal is oscillating, and soybean is also oscillating on the disk [20]. - **Corn**: It is oscillating strongly [20]. - **Sugar**: Domestic production is increasing continuously [20]. - **Cotton**: Driven by market optimism, cotton futures have rebounded [20]. - **Egg**: It is oscillating and adjusting [20]. - **Pig**: There is short - term gaming, with pre - trading of inventory reduction followed by re - inventory increase [20]. - **Peanut**: It is oscillating strongly [20].