证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 策略研究 2026 年 03 月 08 日 筹近谋远，致大尽微 ——2026 年两会学习理解 报告要点： 事件：2026 年 3 月 5 日，第十四届全国人大四次会议于北京召开，国务 院总理李强作政府工作报告。我们对政府工作报告及多个关键部委参与的经济 主题记者会中的重要政策表述进行梳理及分析。 工作报告立足全局、衔接远近、注重细节、务求实效 今年两会政府工作报告释放出的政策信号，整体上更加突出统筹大局与结构、 衔接长远与当前的治理逻辑。"筹近谋远，致大尽微"，可以从三个层面来理 解。其一是体现在时间维度上，今年政策部署更加注重年度目标与"十五五" 开局、乃至 2035 年远景目标之间的衔接；其二是体现在任务维度上，报告将 扩内需、强创新、促改革、惠民生、防风险等关键任务纳入同一框架系统谋划， 体现出更强的全局统筹；其三是体现在治理维度上，宏观的部署进一步细化为 更具颗粒度和可操作性的政策工具。如在扩内需方面，首创设立 1000 亿元财 政金融协同促内需专项资金。 总量目标灵活务实，为长期发展预留空间 2026 年我国经济增长目标为 4.5%—5%区间，并努力争取更好 ...

中国人民银行数据显示 2025年末贷款余额为108.8万亿元 | 同比增长12.9% 2025年12月新发放贷款加权平均利率为 3.35% 比上年同期低 0.41个百分点 2025年末服务企业和个人共计 …………… 8218万户 比上年同期增加 | 522万户 中国人民银行增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款、支农 2025年 支小再贷款额度各3000亿元;创设5000亿元服务 消费与养老再贷款 下调结构性货币政策工具利率 0.25个百分点 2025年末,支持做好金融"五篇大文章"的结构性 货币政策工具余额达 4.1万亿元 中国人民银行下调各类结构性货币政策工具 2026年初 利率 0.25个百分点 | ; 增加科技创新和 技术改造再贷款额度 4000亿元 随着我国经济结构加快转型升级，金融服务需要适配经济高质量发展的要求。做好金融"五篇大文章"是 中央金融工作会议提出的明确要求。中国人民银行的统计数据显示，从金融"五篇大文章"领域看，2025 年末贷款余额108.8万亿元，同比增长12.9%；2025年12月新发放贷款加权平均利率为3.35%，比上年同 期低0.41个百分点；2025年末服务企业和个人共计8218万 ...

中央一号文件提出，健全财政金融协同支农投入机制，充分发挥支农支小再贷款、科技创新和技术改造 再贷款等政策激励作用，推动金融机构加大对农业农村领域资金投放。眼下，随着我国政策的持续完 善，金融机构不断加大对"三农"的支持和服务力度，涉农贷款投放规模持续增大，农村金融服务覆盖面 不断扩大、可得性大大提升。 2025年以来，各地积极响应国家政策，加快农村金融产品和服务方式创新，助力乡村全面振兴。如广东 省健全普惠金融政策体系，以注入资本金、降费奖补和代偿补偿3种方式，引导财政金融活水精准滴 灌"三农"等经营主体；福建省创新融合货币、财政、产业政策的"再贷款+乡村振兴贷/乡村振兴示范 点"等模式，持续扩大"三农"领域信贷投放；浙江省创新土特产担保产品和政策性农险，不断扩大农业 有效抵押担保物范围，率先在全国制定畜牧业、渔业资产抵押贷款操作指引，涉农贷款余额、普惠型涉 农贷款居全国前列。中国人民银行持续完善政策框架，创新"三农"金融产品和服务，对服务"三农"领域 的金融机构实施差别化存款准备金率，运用支农支小再贷款、再贴现、普惠小微贷款等引导金融机构支 持"三农"工作。 提升农村数字金融发展水平。加快构建智能化服务平台 ...

证券时报记者 孙璐璐 近年来，作为金融"五篇大文章"之首，科技金融在政策支持下快速发展，仅相关贷款余额就连续多年保持双位数 增长；截至2025年11月末，我国科技贷款余额高达44.8万亿元，同比增长11.5%。证券、担保、创投、保险等其他 金融领域也在加码赋能科技创新，科技金融不再是单一金融领域的"单打独斗"，各类政策"攥指成拳"，服务科技创 新的金融生态圈不断壮大。 金融支持性政策推出的背后，既有来自对金融、科技行业痛点的回应，也离不开两会代表委员躬身调研一线，推 动完善政策组合拳。2024年，全国人大常委会将"大力发展科技金融，推动高水平科技自立自强"列为重点督办建 议，由人民银行承办。人民银行协助全国人大财经委相关负责人赴广东调研，共同研究优化金融服务赋能科技创 新、培育科创金融生态体系的举措。 在充分调研并采纳代表政策建议的基础上，央行会同科技部等部门在当年先后出台《关于扎实做好科技金融大文 章的工作方案》《关于做好重点地区科技金融服务的通知》（下称《通知》）。其中，《通知》聚焦加快推进重 点地区率先构建适应科技创新的科技金融体制，探索投贷联动、并购贷款、科技保险等科技金融新业务模式，建 立科技金融数 ...

近年来为适应和引导经济结构变化，中国人民银行不断调整和完善结构性货币政策工具体系，经济大省 浙江积极用好各项结构性货币政策工具，取得良好效果。据中国人民银行浙江省分行统计，2025年浙江 创新再贷款使用方式，单设"三个200亿元"支农支小再贷款专项额度，开展"稳外贸、促消费、强科 创"专项行动，带动法人银行新发放外贸、消费、科创领域贷款超2000亿元，惠及经营主体超100万户。 截至2025年末，累计发放符合科技创新和技术改造再贷款、服务消费与养老再贷款支持的特定领域贷款 超2100亿元，相关工具落地金额居全国前列。 中国人民银行浙江省分行相关负责人表示，此次加大结构性货币政策工具支持力度的八项举措，将与贴 息、担保、风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合，有效推动降低民营企业综合性融资成本和风险管理成 本。浙江将持续加力推动结构性货币政策工具扩面增量，激励金融机构不断强化民营经济重点领域资源 投放，确保2026年浙江全省民营经济贷款规模保持全国前列，普惠小微贷款规模保持全国领先。 农行浙江温州乐清柳市支行在常态化走访中了解到上述企业受困于产能压力，启动了"年新增3万套超低 温深冷工程专用阀门智能工厂技术改造项目"， ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while monitoring liquidity and financial market changes [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The report highlights the importance of maintaining liquidity in the banking system and using various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable growth in social financing and money supply, aligning with economic growth and price expectations [1] - Experts suggest that the cumulative effects of the moderately accommodative monetary policy will continue to manifest, with both incremental and stock policies working together to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1] Group 2: Support for Economic Structure Transformation - The report includes measures to optimize financial services to support economic structure transformation, focusing on expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and support for small and micro enterprises [2] - In January 2026, the PBOC announced policies to lower interest rates on structural monetary policy tools and enhance support for key areas, indicating a comprehensive coverage of financial services for the "Five Major Financial Tasks" [2] Group 3: Financial Support for Consumption and Housing - The report stresses the need to build a robust pension financial system and support the development of the silver economy, while also promoting financial policies to boost service consumption and improve housing finance systems [3] Group 4: Monetary Policy Transmission - The report calls for deepening interest rate marketization reforms and improving the transmission channels of monetary policy, ensuring that short-term market interest rates align with central bank policy rates [4] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring cross-border capital flows and maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate within a reasonable range [4] Group 5: Liquidity Management - Recent statistics indicate that the PBOC has injected a net of 6 trillion yuan into the market through open market operations in 2025, reflecting a relatively loose social financing condition [5] - The adjustment in asset allocation by residents does not imply significant changes in liquidity, as most funds are redirected back into the banking system, indicating a shift in the structure of bank deposits rather than a decrease in overall liquidity [5]

● 本报记者 彭扬 畅通货币政策传导渠道 在把握好利率、汇率内外均衡方面，报告提出，深入推进利率市场化改革，畅通货币政策传导渠道。健 全市场化利率形成、调控和传导机制，发挥中央银行政策利率引导作用。引导短期货币市场利率更好围 绕央行政策利率平稳运行。稳步深化汇率市场化改革，完善以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调 节、有管理的浮动汇率制度，坚持市场在汇率形成中起决定性作用，发挥汇率调节宏观经济和国际收支 自动稳定器功能。做好跨境资金流动的监测分析，坚持底线思维，综合施策，增强外汇市场韧性，稳定 市场预期，防范汇率超调风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 2月10日，中国人民银行发布的2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告提出，继续实施好适度宽松的货 币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要 考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机，持续营造 适宜的货币金融环境。 报告还明确，加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保 持流动性充裕。引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合 ...

2025年是"十四五"收官之年，国民经济延续稳中有进发展态势，经济社会发展主要目标顺利实现。全年 国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5%。2月10日，人民银行发布2025年第四季度货币政策执行报告指出， 其坚决落实党中央、国务院决策部署，实施适度宽松的货币政策，在执行好存量货币政策的基础上，又 推出一揽子货币金融政策组合，强化逆周期调节，有效支持实体经济稳定增长和金融市场平稳运行。 2025年，人民银行多措并举实施适度宽松的货币政策。 一方面综合运用存款准备金率、公开市场操作等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。引导金融机构加 强项目储备和信贷投放，充分满足实体经济有效信贷需求。另一方面推动社会综合融资成本低位下行。 包括下调政策利率、结构性货币政策工具利率和个人住房公积金贷款利率，有力支持降低社会综合融资 成本。 此外，也在加大对重大战略、重点领域和薄弱环节的支持力度。丰富完善结构性货币政策工具体系，调 整优化信贷结构，支持做好金融"五篇大文章"。其中包括，增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款、支农支小 再贷款额度各3000亿元，创设5000亿元服务消费与养老再贷款、2000亿元科技创新债券风险分担工具。 从金融总量、价 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support stable economic growth and financial market stability in 2025, with a GDP growth target of 5% for the year [1]. Monetary Policy Implementation - In 2025, the PBOC employed various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios and open market operations, to maintain ample liquidity and support effective credit demand from the real economy [3]. - The PBOC aims to lower the overall financing costs in society by reducing policy interest rates and specific loan rates, thereby enhancing support for key sectors and strategic areas [3]. Financial Indicators - By the end of 2025, the total social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth rate [4]. - The new corporate loan and personal housing loan rates were approximately 3.1% in December 2025, indicating a decline in financing costs [4]. - Key loan categories such as technology loans, green loans, and loans for the elderly industry saw significant year-on-year growth rates, with technology loans increasing by 11.5% and loans for the elderly industry by 50.5% [4]. Future Policy Directions - The PBOC plans to continue its moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery while adjusting the implementation of policies based on domestic and international economic conditions [5]. - There will be an emphasis on improving the interest rate adjustment framework and enhancing the transmission mechanism of market interest rates to lower financing costs further [6]. - The PBOC aims to maintain the stability of the RMB exchange rate while expanding financial support for key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [6].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on promoting stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery, while adjusting the policy's intensity, rhythm, and timing based on domestic and international economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC's report for the fourth quarter of 2025 indicates that it will introduce a comprehensive monetary and financial policy package to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, effectively supporting stable growth in the real economy and smooth operation of financial markets [1]. - By the end of 2025, the total financial volume is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increasing by 8.3% and 8.5% year-on-year, respectively, significantly outpacing nominal GDP growth [1]. Group 2: Credit Structure and Support - After adjusting for local government debt impacts, RMB loans are projected to grow by around 7%, indicating sustained strong credit support [1]. - The credit structure continues to optimize, with technology loans, green loans, inclusive loans, elderly care industry loans, and digital economy industry loans growing by 11.5%, 20.2%, 10.9%, 50.5%, and 14.1% year-on-year, respectively, all exceeding the overall loan growth rate [1]. Group 3: Future Monetary Tools and Support - In 2025, the PBOC increased the quotas for re-loans for technological innovation and agricultural support by 300 billion yuan each, established 500 billion yuan for consumer services and elderly care re-loans, and created a 200 billion yuan risk-sharing tool for technology innovation bonds [2]. - The PBOC aims to effectively implement various structural monetary policy tools, enhance financial support for key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises, while also improving macro-prudential and financial stability management tools [2].