Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell as "incompetent" and indicated that a new candidate will be appointed when Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Trump has repeatedly called for significant interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and has demanded Powell's resignation [1] - The upcoming week is referred to as "Super Central Bank Week," with the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions on October 30 [1] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve is likely to lower rates by 25 basis points, while the European and Japanese central banks are expected to maintain current rates [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The divergence in monetary policy among the three major central banks is anticipated to be a key factor influencing global currency markets [1]

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have intensified, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing volatility in a high range, influenced by changes in risk sentiment, monetary policy differences, and macroeconomic expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Risk Sentiment - Risk sentiment remains a significant driver of capital flows, with investors tending to reduce risk assets and increase holdings in safe-haven currencies during periods of uncertainty [3] - The Japanese yen, as a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to gain support when risk appetite declines, thereby exerting pressure on the US dollar [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Differences - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan continues to impact the relative strength of their currencies, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months amid slowing economic growth and easing inflation [3] - In contrast, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-low interest rate environment, with cautious policy adjustments, affecting capital flows and the USD/JPY exchange rate [3] Group 3: Economic Data - Key economic indicators such as US inflation and employment reports are critical for market observation, with weak data potentially reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts, thereby weakening short-term support for the US dollar [3] - Japan's economic recovery remains moderate, with no significant upward movement in inflation, suggesting that aggressive policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has faced multiple resistance levels in the high range, indicating a weakening upward momentum [3] - A breakdown below key support levels could trigger further adjustments, while stabilization and a breakthrough of previous highs could signal a potential recovery in upward momentum [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/JPY exchange rate will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the performance of US economic data, and shifts in market risk appetite [4]

Group 1 - Currency exchange plays a significant role in cross-border consumption, travel, and investment, with the current exchange rate of 1 Japanese Yen equating to approximately 0.0473 Chinese Yuan as of July 2024 [1][3] - The Bank of Japan has maintained an ultra-loose monetary policy, while the People's Bank of China adjusts its policies based on domestic economic conditions, impacting the value of the Yen [3][4] - The actual effective exchange rate index of the Yen is nearing historical lows, indicating a potential demand for value recovery [5] Group 2 - For small exchanges, digital banks with "flash exchange" features can facilitate quick transactions, while larger exchanges may benefit from "large amount preferential rates" offered by banks [4] - A 5% depreciation of the Yen could increase purchasing power by approximately 68 Yuan, while a 3% appreciation could reduce it by about 41 Yuan, highlighting the importance of monitoring exchange rate fluctuations [4] - Consumers are advised to operate when the exchange rate is within ±2% of the three-month average to minimize decision-making costs and should prioritize direct payments in Yen to avoid additional losses from currency conversion [5]