从需求端来看，传统领域需求疲软与新兴领域需求强劲形成对比，但整体需求存在较强韧性。铜的传统消费终端行业——地产与家 电2025年表现欠佳。中国房地产市场仍处于调整期，抑制了地产领域的铜需求。虽然"保交楼"等政策起到了一定托底作用，但难以 扭转整体下滑的趋势。据SMM数据，预计2025年建筑地产终端耗铜量同比将下滑1.67%。家电板块内销及外销均承压。内销方面， 随着国补政策长期化，其对消费的边际提振效果减弱，行业逐步回归由实际需求驱动的逻辑。2025年下半年以来，空调、冰箱内销 排产增速同比均开始下行。外销方面，第一季度表现亮眼，但从4月开始外销排产节奏出现趋势性下滑。主要原因有三点：一是海 外备货高峰期已过，市场逐步进入去库阶段；二是去年同期外销产量基数较高；三是出口面临关税压力。 尽管地产与家电领域仍存拖累效应，但电力与新能源板块产生强力支撑。电力板块占铜需求的40%~50%，是全球铜消费的"压舱 石"。全球范围内的电网升级和扩张是一大需求亮点。无论是中国为消纳西部新能源而建设的"特高压"线路，还是欧美为适应可再 生能源并网而推进的老旧电网改造，都将为铜需求提供持续支撑。此外，光伏、风电和新能源汽车增速亮 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is volatile but stable, and base metals bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. Long - term, with potential domestic incremental stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. - Copper: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices adjusted in the short term, but are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating [10]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center [13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term [15]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term [18]. - Lead: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish [19]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile [21]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile [23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper** - **Viewpoint**: US monetary liquidity is tight, causing short - term copper price adjustments. Mid - term outlook is volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Fed cut interest rates in October, but Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. US financial system funding conditions worsened. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month. Spot premiums recovered, and inventories increased. Sino - US leaders' meeting is conducive to cooperation [8][9]. - **Logic**: Macro factors and tight monetary liquidity led to price adjustments. Supply is constrained by mine disruptions and increased scrap copper recycling costs. Demand may pick up as spot turns to premium [10]. - **Alumina** - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Logic**: High - cost capacity fluctuates, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. Ore prices loosen slightly, and the price is under pressure. However, low - valuation may attract more funds [11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums decreased. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed slightly. A project will be put into production, and some areas have environmental protection restrictions. Some aluminum has been transported to the US [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is generally positive. Supply is affected by domestic environmental protection and overseas disruptions. Demand is stable after the peak season, and inventory changes should be monitored [14]. - **Aluminum alloy** - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term. - **Analysis**: Alloy prices decreased. The US may restrict scrap aluminum exports, and the estimated scale of the passenger car market decreased [15]. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is affected by raw material shortages and other factors. Demand has a marginal improvement, especially in the automotive market [15]. - **Zinc** - **Viewpoint**: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums were stable. Inventories increased slightly. A mine's production was affected by an earthquake [18]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is improving. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average [18]. - **Lead** - **Viewpoint**: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable, and lead prices and inventories increased. Some enterprises are in maintenance or resuming production [19]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreased. Supply is affected by enterprise maintenance and resumption. Demand is in the peak season, and battery factories'开工率 is high [19]. - **Nickel** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories increased. Some projects are in progress, and a company's new materials have achieved certain results [21]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, with loose ore supply and increased inventories [22]. - **Stainless steel** - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts were stable. Spot premiums were positive. Ferronickel prices decreased, and the Indonesian government allocated funds for mining projects [23]. - **Logic**: Cost support has weakened. Stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Inventories may accumulate seasonally [24]. - **Tin** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic tin inventories changed, and spot prices decreased. - **Logic**: Supply is constrained by problems in Myanmar and Indonesia. However, refined tin production has increased, and inventory accumulation restricts price increases [25]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific content for monitoring is provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index), and the PPI commodity index showed different changes. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a 5 - day decline of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.75% [151][152].

Core Insights - Recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market have intensified, with the USD/JPY exchange rate experiencing volatility in a high range, influenced by changes in risk sentiment, monetary policy differences, and macroeconomic expectations [1][3][4] Group 1: Risk Sentiment - Risk sentiment remains a significant driver of capital flows, with investors tending to reduce risk assets and increase holdings in safe-haven currencies during periods of uncertainty [3] - The Japanese yen, as a traditional safe-haven asset, tends to gain support when risk appetite declines, thereby exerting pressure on the US dollar [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Differences - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan continues to impact the relative strength of their currencies, with the Federal Reserve expected to maintain a moderate easing stance in the coming months amid slowing economic growth and easing inflation [3] - In contrast, the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain its ultra-low interest rate environment, with cautious policy adjustments, affecting capital flows and the USD/JPY exchange rate [3] Group 3: Economic Data - Key economic indicators such as US inflation and employment reports are critical for market observation, with weak data potentially reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts, thereby weakening short-term support for the US dollar [3] - Japan's economic recovery remains moderate, with no significant upward movement in inflation, suggesting that aggressive policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan are unlikely in the short term [3] Group 4: Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY has faced multiple resistance levels in the high range, indicating a weakening upward momentum [3] - A breakdown below key support levels could trigger further adjustments, while stabilization and a breakthrough of previous highs could signal a potential recovery in upward momentum [3] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the USD/JPY exchange rate will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, the performance of US economic data, and shifts in market risk appetite [4]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 16.39 points, a 0.45% increase, reaching 3633.99 points, with a trading volume of 707.22 billion yuan, marking a new three-year closing high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 70.82 points, a 0.64% increase, closing at 11177.78 points, with a trading volume of 1026.847 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 15.57 points, a 0.66% rise, closing at 2358.95 points, with a trading volume of 525.173 billion yuan [1] Sector Performance - Strong performances were noted in sectors such as military, gaming, coal, and robotics, while previously popular sectors like biomedicine and innovative drugs experienced corrections [1] - The coal sector showed significant gains, with prices for coking coal futures returning to an upward trend and port inventory decreasing [5][6] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector's dividend yield has increased, with the China Coal Index currently yielding over 5%, making it attractive for long-term investors [7][9] - The recommendation includes investing in coal ETFs (515220) and steel ETFs (515210) to capture potential rebound opportunities under the "anti-involution" policy [5][9] Economic Outlook - Policies aimed at improving macroeconomic expectations are expected to support coal prices from both supply and demand sides [9] - The market sentiment is gradually forming a consensus on the medium to long-term confidence in the Chinese economy, driven by a shift in policy focus from quantity to price [1][4] Technical Analysis - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant participation from external funds, and the potential for further gains as the market approaches previous high points [2][4] - The likelihood of a significant correction is considered low, with various support levels in place [2][4] Gold Market Insights - The gold ETF (518800) has seen net inflows exceeding 300 million yuan in the past five days, driven by geopolitical risks and concerns over the U.S. economy [10][12] - The weakening of the dollar's credit system and the ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities on July 30, 2025, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc., and gives corresponding trend intensities [2]. - The trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economy, industry news, and inventory changes [6][11][14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate and decline, with a trend intensity of - 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 771.44 yuan, down 0.43%. The macro - economic situation and international trade policies have an impact on its price [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9195 yuan, down 0.18%. The trading volume and inventory changes affect its price [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks driving forces and the price will oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,840 yuan, down 0.20%. Macro - economic data and industry news such as potential tariffs and mining projects influence its price [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Will oscillate in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22,655 yuan, up 0.04%. Inventory changes and import - export factors affect its price [2][14][15]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory increase pressures the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16,900 yuan, down 0.09%. Inventory and macro - economic news are the influencing factors [2][18][19]. - **Tin**: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 266,660 yuan, down 0.46%. Inventory and spot - futures price differences affect its price [2][22][26]. - **Aluminum**: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20,605 yuan, down 10 yuan. The price is affected by factors such as inventory, trading volume, and enterprise profitability [2][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Macro - expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 121,800 yuan, up 180 yuan. Industry news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][30][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan, up 80 yuan. Market sentiment and industry news are the influencing factors [2][31][35]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Will oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the switch of macro - sentiment, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 70,840 yuan, down 2,280 yuan. Market supply - demand and macro - economic factors affect its price [2][36][38]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,350 yuan, up 435 yuan. Supply - demand and cost factors affect its price [2][39][42]. - **Polysilicon**: Driven by news, the futures market is expected to be strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of PS2509 was 50,805 yuan, up 1,400 yuan. Industry news and market sentiment affect its price [2][40][42]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it will oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of I2509 was 798 yuan, up 12 yuan. Macro - economic news and supply - demand relationships affect its price [2][43]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the sector's market resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of rebar is 0, and that of hot - rolled coil is 0. The closing price of RB2510 was 3,347 yuan, up 65 yuan; the closing price of HC2510 was 3,503 yuan, up 69 yuan. Industry data and macro - policies affect their prices [2][45][47]. - **Silicon Manganese and Ferrosilicon**: Affected by the sector's sentiment resonance, they will oscillate strongly. The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicon manganese is 0. The closing price of ferrosilicon 2509 was 6110 yuan, up 270 yuan; the closing price of silicon manganese 2509 was 6212 yuan, up 184 yuan. Market supply - demand and industry news affect their prices [2][48][51]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: After the sentiment is realized, they will oscillate widely, with a trend intensity of 0 for both. The closing price of JM2509 was 1120.5 yuan, up 20 yuan; the closing price of J2509 was 1633 yuan, up 24.5 yuan. Supply - demand relationships and price changes in the spot market affect their prices [2][52][55]. - **Steam Coal**: As daily consumption recovers, it will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend intensity of 0. Yesterday, there was no transaction for ZC2508. The price is affected by factors such as consumption and inventory [2][57][60]. Agricultural Products and Others - **Palm Oil**: Supported by positive factors such as crude oil and macro - sentiment in the short term. The price is affected by the price of crude oil and macro - economic sentiment [2][60]. - **Soybean Oil**: Will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade. The price is affected by international trade relations and market supply - demand [2][60]. - **Soybean Meal**: Likely to oscillate, affected by the prices of US soybeans and rapeseed meal. The price is affected by the international soybean market and domestic supply - demand [2][62]. - **Corn**: Will oscillate. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and weather [2][64]. - **Sugar**: Will oscillate in a narrow range. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption [2][65]. - **Cotton**: After the sentiment cools down, the Zhengzhou cotton futures will correct. The price is affected by market sentiment and supply - demand [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has weakened. The price is affected by factors such as production and consumption seasons [2][67]. - **Live Pigs**: With a weak reality and strong expectations, a trend reverse spread is recommended. The price is affected by factors such as production cycles and market expectations [2][68]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas. The price is affected by weather conditions and supply - demand [2][69]. - **Log**: Will oscillate repeatedly. The price is affected by factors such as supply - demand and market sentiment [2][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding price trends and trading suggestions for each commodity [2][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate downward [2][6] - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise [2][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Gold -1, Silver 0 [11] Base Metals - **Copper**: The rising US dollar exerts pressure on prices [13] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly [16] - **Lead**: Lacks clear driving force, prices oscillate [19] - **Tin**: Expected to oscillate within a range [22] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate at a high level [26] - **Alumina**: Market sentiment declines [26] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [26] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, fundamentals limit the elasticity [29] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [29] - **Trend Intensity**: Copper 0, Zinc -1, Lead 0, Tin -1, Aluminum 0, Alumina 0, Cast Aluminum Alloy 0, Nickel 0, Stainless Steel 0 [15][18][20] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Expected to oscillate widely, pay attention to the progress of production cuts in Jiangxi mines [34] - **Industrial Silicon**: Pay attention to today's sentiment changes [38] - **Polysilicon**: Pay attention to today's market information [39] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macroeconomic expectations, expected to oscillate strongly [42] - **Rebar**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [45] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Weakly oscillates due to sector - wide market resonance [46] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Manganese Silicide**: Weakly oscillates as funds compete with the real - world situation [49] - **Coke**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [53] - **Coking Coal**: Market sentiment is realized, expected to oscillate widely [54] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, expected to oscillate and stabilize [57] - **P - Xylene**: The unilateral trend is weak [2] - **PTA**: Weak, conduct basis reverse arbitrage and calendar spread positive arbitrage [2] - **MEG**: The trend turns weak, conduct calendar spread reverse arbitrage [2] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Asphalt**: Crude oil is strong, cracking continues to weaken [2] - **LLDPE**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **PP**: Spot prices decline, trading is light [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Pay attention to delivery pressure [2] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate weakly [2] - **Glass**: The price of raw sheets is stable [2] - **Methanol**: Under short - term pressure and expected to oscillate [2] - **Urea**: Weakly operates in the short term [2] - **Styrene**: Compress profit margins [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5] - **PVC**: Weak in the short term [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Rebounds slightly at night, may turn strong in the short term [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Rises in the short term, the spread between high - and low - sulfur spot prices in the overseas market is temporarily stable [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Carbonate Lithium 0, Industrial Silicon 0, Polysilicon 1, Iron Ore 0, Rebar 0, Hot - Rolled Coil 0, Silicon Ferrosilicon 0, Manganese Silicide 0, Coke 0, Coking Coal 0, Steam Coal 0 [36][41][42] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The short - term rise has reached its limit, beware of a decline in sentiment [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Expected to oscillate within a range, pay attention to China - US trade progress [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Soybean No.1**: Adjusts and oscillates [5] - **Sugar**: Ranges and consolidates [5] - **Cotton**: High basis and concerns about tight supply continue to support futures prices [5] - **Eggs**: Spot prices turn weak [5] - **Hogs**: Strong in the real - world situation but weak in expectations, conduct reverse arbitrage [5] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for agricultural products Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions and 10 - 12 reverse spreads [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Sentiment declines, weakly oscillates with increased volatility [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level, lacks upward momentum [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate strongly [5] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [60] - **Trend Intensity**: Not provided for these commodities

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2509 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall view of oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is relatively loose, but the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut is low [1]. - For the main bond futures varieties (TL, T, TF, TS), the intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate. The reasons include the central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week, a tightening of market liquidity, a rise in market interest rates due to the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, limited upward space for market interest rates due to the anchoring effect of policy rates, the existence of insufficient domestic effective demand, the need for a loose monetary environment to support the economy in the second half of the year, an expected interest rate cut, and the unchanged LPR in July making a short - term interest rate cut less likely [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2509, short - term (within one week) is oscillation, medium - term (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, intraday is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is oscillation. The core logic is that the monetary policy environment is loose, but the short - term possibility of an interest rate cut is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating. The central bank's net withdrawal of liquidity this week tightened market liquidity and raised market interest rates. The easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations led to a positive macro - economic outlook and a rise in market interest rates since July. The upward space for market interest rates is limited due to the policy rate anchor. There is still insufficient domestic effective demand, and a loose monetary environment is needed in the second half of the year, with an expected interest rate cut. However, the unchanged LPR in July makes a short - term interest rate cut less likely, so short - term bond futures will mainly oscillate and consolidate [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Israel and Iran has cooled down, and the market risk appetite has rebounded. However, the impact of external factors on the A-share market is limited, and the shock center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up. With the approaching of the interim report season, IF and IH with higher performance certainty may be relatively strong, while IC and IM face increased performance verification pressure [1]. - The bond market sentiment is optimistic, but the high valuation restricts the upward space. The short - term policy interest rate is difficult to cut [1]. - The geopolitical risk premium of precious metals has declined, and the prices are oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. - The macro - uncertainty persists, and copper prices continue to oscillate. The supply of copper is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious [4]. - The cost of aluminum is disturbed, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - The fundamentals of nickel are weak, and the price continues to decline. The supply of the nickel industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [4]. - The supply of lithium carbonate is loose, and the price is under pressure. The demand for lithium is weak, while the supply is increasing, and the inventory of smelters is rising [4][6]. - The high inventory of polysilicon suppresses the rebound. The supply - demand pattern of the polysilicon market is gradually becoming looser. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options [6]. - The geopolitical risk premium of steel has declined, and the prices are close to the upper limit of the range. The fundamentals of steel are not significantly changed, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options on rebar [6]. - Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the spot price is approaching the bottom while the futures price rebounds first. The long - term supply of coking coal is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. It is recommended that cautious investors close their short positions in coking coal and wait and see for new orders [8]. - The glass has stronger support than soda ash. The supply of soda ash is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions. The performance of float glass is also weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - The geopolitical premium of crude oil may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - The import volume of methanol may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction. The positive impact of the Middle - East conflict is fading [10]. - The demand for polyolefins is poor, and the price is expected to decline. The demand for polyolefins is weak, and the crude oil premium is retreating [10]. - The inventory of the cotton industry is decreasing, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy. The supply of cotton is expected to be tight, and the short - term fundamentals have no obvious negative drive [10]. - The demand for rubber is not fulfilled, and the port inventory is increasing. The supply of rubber is increasing while the demand is decreasing, and the price is under pressure [10]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - Geopolitical conflict cools down, market risk appetite rebounds, A - share oscillates upward on Monday, small and micro - cap indexes strengthen, and the trading volume of the two markets slightly rebounds to 1.15 trillion yuan [1]. - The performance of IF and IH may be relatively strong during the interim report season, while IC and IM face performance verification pressure [1]. Treasury Bond - The bond market sentiment is optimistic due to loose liquidity, but the high valuation and the difficulty of short - term policy interest rate cuts restrict the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risk premium declines, gold and silver prices oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options on gold and silver 08 contracts [1][4]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The supply is tight, but the overseas macro situation is uncertain, and the real demand is cautious. Copper prices continue to oscillate in the short term [4]. - Aluminum: The cost is disturbed, and the inventory is low. The supply of alumina is in excess, but the downward drive may slow down. The supply - demand of aluminum is intertwined, and the low inventory provides support [4]. - Nickel: The fundamentals are weak, the supply of the industry chain is in excess, but the price of nickel ore is firm. It is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals - Polypropylene (PP): The event - driven positive factors fade, and the supply is in excess. It is recommended to open new short positions in PP2509 [2]. - Polysilicon: The high inventory suppresses the rebound. It is recommended to continue holding the strategy of selling call options on polysilicon PS2508 - C - 34500 [2][6]. - Aluminum: The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to hold the previous long positions in AL2508 [2]. - Crude Oil: The geopolitical premium may further decline. It is recommended to close the long - call option positions [8]. - Methanol: The import volume may not decrease significantly, and the futures price may face a correction [10]. - Polyolefins: The demand is poor, and the price is expected to decline [10]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: The geopolitical risk premium declines, and the price is close to the upper limit of the range. It is recommended to hold the strategies of selling out - of - the - money call and put options [6]. - Hot - rolled Coil: The fundamentals change little, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. - Iron Ore: The supply - demand may be slightly looser in June - July, and the price follows the steel price to oscillate in a narrow range. It is recommended to wait and see for new orders [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: The long - term supply is in excess, but the short - term supply tightens. Cautious investors are recommended to close their short positions and wait and see for new orders [8]. - Coke: The fundamentals show a double - decline in supply and demand. The spot price is approaching the bottom, and the futures price rebounds first [8]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to be loose, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. - Float Glass: The performance is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions and some arbitrage strategies [8]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The inventory of the industry is decreasing, and the supply is expected to be tight. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10]. - Rubber: The demand is not fulfilled, the port inventory is increasing, and the price is under pressure [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is to view the price as "oscillating weakly" and take a bearish stance [2]. 2) Core View of the Report - The short - term domestic macro - expectation is weak, the market trading focus returns to the weak pattern of strong reality + weak expectation. The demand maintains a downward trend but stays at a relatively high level, and the supply side has a strong expectation of incremental growth. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will oscillate weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black series maintained a narrow - range oscillation, and the iron ore price followed. The demand for finished products shows off - season characteristics but no inventory accumulation. The supply of iron ore has a seasonal increase, and the profit of blast furnaces is relatively good. Domestic iron ore demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level, which supports the iron ore price [2]. Supply - The current overseas ore shipment increased slightly month - on - month. The volume of Australian iron ore shipped to China increased significantly, while Brazilian shipments declined from a high level, and shipments from non - mainstream countries fluctuated slightly. In June, it is the peak season for overseas ore shipments. With the fiscal year end volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, overseas ore shipments are expected to maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will gradually weaken [2]. Demand - Domestic hot - metal production ended a five - week decline and rebounded slightly, and the demand stopped falling and stabilized. The current daily average hot - metal output is 242.18 (month - on - month + 0.57). The current profit rate of steel mills is high, and the blast - furnace profit is relatively good. With the full - depth losses of short - process steelmaking, the demand for iron ore is resilient, and high demand supports the price [2]. Inventory - Due to the continuous increase in sea - floating shipments, the inventory of imported ore at steel mills increased month - on - month. The daily consumption increased due to the resumption of production of individual steel mills. Steel mills mostly purchase on - demand due to weak demand expectations. Due to the decline in arrivals and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory decreased slightly this period. It is expected that the inventory will gradually accumulate slightly in the later period, but the inventory accumulation pressure is weak due to high demand [2]. Price - The price of iron ore is expected to oscillate weakly and should be treated bearishly [2].

Group 1: Reported Industries and Investment Ratings - There is no investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The A-share market is stabilizing amidst fluctuations, with potential for more international capital inflow into domestic risk assets. The short - term market is expected to be range - bound [2][3][6]. - The bond market sentiment is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to the central bank's bond purchase situation at the end of the month, and appropriate long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures [7][9]. - Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [10][12][13]. - The container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate, with the 08 contract in a narrow range [14][15]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to the combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Tin prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes. Nickel prices are expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment. Stainless steel prices are expected to be weak. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be in a weak range [20][24][27][30][35]. - Steel prices are in a weak range - bound state, and iron ore prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - term. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to be volatile, and short - selling opportunities can be considered after rebounds. Silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be in a bottom - range oscillation [37][41][44][47][49][53]. - Meal prices are expected to be oscillating strongly, but there is pressure on the upside. Pig prices are expected to be in a small - range oscillation. Corn prices are expected to be in a high - level oscillation [54][56][57][58][59]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - Market situation: The main indices opened lower on Wednesday, with some turning positive in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04%, and the four major stock index futures contracts all rose. The basis discount of the main contracts is converging [2][3]. - News: The Lujiazui Forum announced eight major financial opening - up measures, and the China - Hong Kong signed a cooperation plan. Overseas, the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and adjusted the bond - buying reduction speed [3][4]. - Capital: On June 18, the A - share trading volume decreased slightly, with a net capital withdrawal of 770 million yuan from the central bank's open - market operations [5]. - Operation suggestion: The index has stable support below but faces resistance above. Short - term trading volume is not expanding, and it is recommended to sell put options with an exercise price of 5800 in July to earn premiums [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market performance: Treasury bond futures closed with mixed performance. The 30 - year and 2 - year contracts rose, while the 10 - year and 5 - year contracts fell [7]. - Capital: The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 770 million yuan. The money market is stable, with the overnight repo rate slightly down and the seven - day repo rate slightly up [8]. - News: The central bank governor announced eight financial policies at the Lujiazui Forum [9]. - Operation suggestion: The market sentiment is relatively strong. Pay attention to the central bank's bond - buying situation at the end of the month. Long positions can be considered for treasury bond futures on dips, and positive - arbitrage strategies for TS2509 can be considered [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - Market situation: The Fed maintained the interest rate, and the market's reaction was small. The dollar index rose slightly, and gold and silver prices fell [10][12]. - News: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue, and the Fed's attitude is hawkish, with internal differences [10][11]. - Capital: Gold and silver ETF holdings increased [13]. - Outlook: Gold has a long - term upward trend, but short - term upward momentum is limited. Silver prices are supported but face short - term adjustment pressure [12][13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot price: As of June 17, the spot prices of major shipping companies are provided [14]. - Index: As of June 16, the SCFIS European line index rose 4.61%, and the US - West line index rose 27.18%. As of June 13, the SCFI composite index fell 6.79% [14]. - Fundamentals: As of June 16, the global container shipping capacity increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The demand in the eurozone and the US is provided by PMI data [14]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating. The July quotes may affect the 08 contract [15]. - Operation suggestion: The 08 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 1900 - 2200 [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Spot: As of June 18, the average price of electrolytic copper rose slightly, and the premium declined [16]. - Macro: The COMEX - LME premium is oscillating, and the impact of the Iran - Israel conflict on copper prices is limited [17]. - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in May increased, with a slight decline expected in June [18]. - Demand: The processing industry's operating rate is mixed, and the short - term demand has resilience but may face pressure in Q3 [19]. - Inventory: COMEX inventory is increasing, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [19]. - Logic: The combination of "strong reality and weak expectation" leads to copper price oscillation. The "rush - to - export" demand may lead to demand pressure in Q3 [20]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 77,000 - 80,000 [20]. Zinc - Spot: On June 18, the average price of zinc ingots rose, and the premium declined [20]. - Supply: The supply of zinc concentrates is increasing, and the production of refined zinc in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June [21][22]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded, but the consumption is entering the off - season, and the purchasing manager index has declined [23]. - Inventory: Domestic and LME inventories are decreasing [23]. - Logic: Zinc prices may be range - bound in the medium - term, and short - term outlook is weak. Pay attention to TC growth and downstream demand changes [24]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to be supported at 21,000 - 21,500 [24]. Tin - Spot: On June 18, the price of tin rose slightly, and the market trading was light [24]. - Supply: The import of tin ore and tin ingots in April changed, and the supply is currently tight [25]. - Demand and inventory: The solder operating rate in April increased, and the inventory situation is provided [25]. - Logic: The supply recovery is slow, and short - term prices are expected to be strongly volatile. Short - selling opportunities can be considered based on supply - side changes [26]. - Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the supply - side recovery and consider short - selling based on inventory and import data [26][27]. Nickel - Spot: As of June 18, the price of electrolytic nickel was stable, and the import premium rose [27]. - Supply: The production of refined nickel is at a high level, with a slight decline expected in June [27]. - Demand: The demand from electroplating and alloy industries is stable, while the demand from stainless steel and nickel sulfate is weak [27]. - Inventory: Overseas inventory is high, and domestic inventory is slightly decreasing [28]. - Logic: The market sentiment is low, and the price is expected to be in a weak range - bound adjustment [29]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 [29][30]. Stainless Steel - Spot: As of June 18, the spot price of stainless steel was stable, and the basis declined [30]. - Raw materials: The supply of nickel ore is tight, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron are weak [30]. - Supply: The production of stainless steel in June is expected to decrease slightly, with an increase in the 300 - series [31]. - Inventory: Social inventory is increasing, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [31]. - Logic: The market is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weak. Pay attention to the production reduction rhythm of steel mills [32]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [32]. Lithium Carbonate - Spot: As of June 18, the price of lithium carbonate was stable, and the price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly [32]. - Supply: The production of lithium carbonate in May decreased slightly, with an increase expected in June. The supply is still abundant [33]. - Demand: The demand is relatively stable, but the off - season is approaching, and there is pressure [33]. - Inventory: The inventory is increasing across the board [34]. - Logic: The futures market is oscillating, and the short - term fundamental pressure remains. The price is expected to be in a weak range [35]. - Operation suggestion: The main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [35][36]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - Spot: The spot price is stable, and the basis is weakening [37]. - Supply: The production is decreasing, with a more significant reduction in finished products [37]. - Demand: The apparent demand is decreasing, affected by tariffs and the off - season [37]. - Inventory: The inventory is approaching the accumulation inflection point, with plate inventory increasing [37]. - View: The raw material price is weakening, and the steel price is expected to be weak. Short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options is recommended [38]. Iron Ore - Spot: The price of mainstream iron ore powder decreased [39]. - Futures: The main contract fell 0.78% [39]. - Basis: The basis of PB powder is 55 yuan/ton [39]. - Demand: The daily average pig iron output and blast furnace operating rate decreased [39]. - Supply: The global iron ore shipment decreased slightly, and the arrival volume decreased [39]. - Inventory: The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's inventory increased [40]. - View: The short - term iron ore price is under pressure, and the medium - term outlook is bearish. The price range is expected to be 720 - 670 [41]. Coking Coal - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated weakly, and the spot price was weakly stable [41]. - Supply: The domestic coal production decreased slightly, and the import coal price continued to decline [44]. - Demand: The coking and blast furnace production decreased, and the demand had some resilience [42][43][44]. - Inventory: The coal mine and port inventory increased, and the downstream inventory was at a medium level [43][44]. - View: The spot fundamental situation improved slightly. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [44]. Coke - Futures and spot: The futures price oscillated strongly, and the spot price was weakly stable. There is still an expectation of price cuts [46][47]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke is negative [46]. - Supply: The coke production decreased [46]. - Demand: The coke demand decreased slightly [47]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased across the board [47]. - View: The spot market is still loose. Short - selling on rebounds for the 2509 contract and long - coking - coal short - coke arbitrage are recommended [47]. Silicon Iron - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [48]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.53% [48]. - Cost and profit: The cost is high, and the profit is negative [48]. - Supply: The production decreased slightly [48]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry and non - steel industries is weak [48][49]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coal price changes [49]. Manganese Silicon - Spot: The price in the main production areas was stable [50]. - Futures: The 09 contract fell 0.86% [50]. - Cost: The cost varies by region, and the profit is negative in some areas [50]. - Manganese ore: The price of manganese ore is stable, and the shipping volume and arrival volume changed [50][51]. - Supply: The production increased slightly [51]. - Demand: The demand from the steel industry decreased [52]. - View: The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [53]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal - Spot market: The price of soybean meal was mixed, and the trading volume increased. The price of rapeseed meal increased slightly, and the trading volume was 1,500 tons [54]. - Fundamental news: Multiple policies and reports related to the agricultural market are provided [54][55]. - Outlook: The domestic meal prices are expected to oscillate strongly, but there is pressure on the upside [56]. Pig - Spot situation: The spot price oscillated, with a slight decline in the national average [57]. - Market data: The breeding profit decreased, and the slaughter weight decreased [57][58]. - Outlook: The pig price is expected to oscillate in a small range, with limited upward and downward space [58]. Corn - Spot price: The price in different regions was stable or increased slightly [59]. - Fundamental news: The inventory in the four northern ports decreased, and the shipping volume decreased [59]. - Outlook: The corn price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited upward momentum [59].