1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The pessimistic sentiment in the base metal market has eased, and prices are expected to oscillate and recover. The supply side has potential support, and the demand side is gradually shifting to the traditional peak season, with consumption improving [1]. - Different metal varieties have different price trends and influencing factors, but generally show an oscillating trend. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Current situation**: On March 26, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -15 yuan/ton; the TC of 25% copper concentrate was -67.2 dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -1.7 dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main logic**: As the Middle East conflict eases, market risk aversion cools down, and copper prices stop falling and stabilize. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply of refined copper is expected to shrink, and overseas smelters have cut production. On the demand side, as the peak season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline [6]. - **Outlook**: The macro uncertainty exerts pressure on copper prices, but supply and demand are gradually improving. Copper prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Current situation**: On March 26, the national weighted average price of alumina spot was 2788 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 415,268 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 3,599 tons [7]. - **Main logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the balance between upstream and downstream has improved, but there is still a slight surplus. The warehouse receipt level is increasing, and the spot price is rising slightly. The Middle East issue has affected the production of electrolytic aluminum, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices has also raised the cost support. In addition, the disturbance at the ore end has intensified the market's concern about resource stability, and the market price is running strongly in the short term [7]. - **Outlook**: The reduction of electrolytic aluminum production puts pressure on demand, but the policy of Guinea's ore provides support. Alumina is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillating trend [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Current situation**: On March 26, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton; the spot discount was -110 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1.371 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 20,000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 339,500 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 10,000 tons; the warehouse receipt of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 404,742 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of 69 tons [8][9]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, the US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. On the supply side, the domestic production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit is high; the Middle East conflict increases the supply disturbance of overseas aluminum, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is still restricted by electricity and other factors. On the demand side, the weekly initial operating rate has slightly recovered, but the high price still restricts demand, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum is low. The support on the supply side has initially appeared [9]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, due to the repeated capital sentiment, aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation. In the medium term, the new domestic production capacity is limited, the overseas production is restricted by electricity and other rigid factors, the demand maintains a resilient growth, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -100 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,541 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -250 yuan/ton [11]. - **Main logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, the supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. On the supply side, the operating rate remains low, and the tax return policy and tax transfer may still restrict supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues, but the subsidy intensity has decreased. The high price restricts downstream demand in the short term, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased. In general, the cost support still exists in the short term, and the supply - demand is stable. The price is expected to continue to oscillate strongly [11]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the cost support is strong, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend. In the medium term, the cost support logic is strengthened, the supply side may have the risk of production reduction due to the cancellation of policies, the supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the price is expected to maintain an oscillating and strong trend [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Current situation**: On March 26, the discount of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was -15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was -20 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was -60 yuan/ton; as of March 26, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 214,400 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -5,100 tons [11][12]. - **Main logic**: In the macro aspect, Trump released information that the military conflict between the US and Iran was easing, the macroeconomic expectation changed, and the pessimistic sentiment eased. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the smelter's profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The previously locked - price zinc ingots have completed export, and the domestic supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, the domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new terminal orders are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. In general, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may oscillate and stabilize in the short term [12]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply of zinc ingots has increased month - on - month. Although the downstream demand has entered the peak season, the terminal demand is weak, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The social inventory has not decreased for a long time. However, the military conflict between the US and Iran has affected the supply of zinc ingots and zinc concentrates, and the rising energy price has increased the pressure on European zinc smelters. At the same time, the export window of domestic zinc ingots has closed. Before the overseas smelters significantly increase production, the LME inventory is difficult to continuously accumulate. Currently, the processing fees of domestic zinc smelters are low, and the recent decline in zinc prices will further compress the smelter's profit and stimulate downstream procurement demand. Zinc prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Current situation**: On March 26, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton; the price of 1 lead ingots was 16,250 - 16,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,300 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of Henan lead ingots was -65 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of -25 yuan/ton; on March 23, the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets was 63,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 52,867 tons, with no change month - on - month [13]. - **Main logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has increased, the price difference between primary and recycled lead has slightly decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt has remained stable. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has remained stable, the lead price has slightly decreased, the loss of recycled lead smelting is still large, the smelters have gradually resumed production, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have slightly decreased. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [16]. - **Outlook**: The operating rates of primary and recycled lead smelters are still high, and the output of lead ingots remains high. After the Spring Festival, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has gradually recovered, but the terminal demand is still weak. However, the cost of waste batteries remains high. Lead prices are expected to show an oscillating trend [16]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,593 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -12 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 tons, with a month-on-month decrease of -216 tons; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th; the Indonesian Minister of Finance said that if approved by the government, the windfall tax on nickel and coal may be implemented as early as April 1 [16]. - **Main logic**: On the supply side, the domestic production of electrolytic nickel decreased month - on - month in February, and the production of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to some extent. The overall supply pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory remains at a high level. The key is to focus on the realization of peak - season demand in the future. In terms of policy, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown obvious marginal improvement. The overall supply - demand in February is still loose, and the LME inventory remains at a high level, which exerts certain pressure on prices. It is necessary to observe the realization strength of peak - season demand. At the same time, the revision of Indonesia's nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance, which provides certain support for nickel prices. Nickel prices are expected to show an oscillating and strong trend, and the progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On March 26, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 45,736 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 2,139 tons; the spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 110 yuan/ton to the main stainless steel contract; the price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1,080 - 1,100 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), which was the same as on the 25th [18]. - **Main logic**: The prices of raw materials remain stable, and there is still certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious. The key is to focus on the realization of the peak season in the future. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is running at a low level [18]. - **Outlook**: Due to the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production is expected to decrease significantly month - on - month, but the production in March is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand is relatively cautious, and it is necessary to observe the realization strength of the peak season in the future. The current fundamentals exert certain pressure on prices. However, considering that the industrial chain profit has been suppressed for a long time and there is also support from the ore end, stainless steel is expected to show an oscillating and strong trend. The progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [18]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Current situation**: On March 26, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -25 tons to 8,780 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by -387 tons to 7,757 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by -1,550 lots to 73,214 lots; the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 352,900 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month decrease of -4,900 yuan/ton [19]. - **Main logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - elevation areas, and the ore output in Wa State is expected to gradually increase. In Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main producing areas is still fragile. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the high growth of the semiconductor industry, but the new global photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, the demand for tin ingots is expected to continue to grow. Overall, the supply risk still exists, and with the resilience of downstream demand, the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, in the short term, due to the weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, the price will maintain an oscillating trend [19]. - **Outlook**: The supply risk is high, and the bottom support for tin prices still exists. However, there is no obvious driving force in the short term, and with the macro - level pressure, tin prices are expected to oscillate [20]. 3.2行情监测 - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,515.25, up 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2,811.87, up 0.44%; the industrial product index was 2,545.38, up 0.15% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 26 was 2,599.38, with a daily increase of 0.19%, a 5 - day increase of 0.86%, a 1 - month decrease of -4.40%, and a year - to - date decrease of -3.22% [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals have stopped falling and are oscillating. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the information about the easing of the US - Iran military conflict has led to short - covering, which helps to improve the short - term panic sentiment. In the medium term, the risk of supply - side disturbances still supports prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show an oscillating trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, market risk - aversion sentiment has cooled, and copper prices have stopped falling and stabilized. The supply of copper ore is in a tight pattern, and the supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. Demand is entering the peak season, and copper supply - demand has improved marginally. Short - term copper prices are suppressed by high inventories and the rising US dollar index, and are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Alumina**: The macro - sentiment has magnified the market fluctuations. From the fundamental perspective, the operating capacity of alumina has little change, and the supply - demand balance has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus. The demand for alumina is under pressure, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. Recently, there have been disturbances at the ore end, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6]. - **Aluminum**: The US economic data shows structural differentiation, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict has strong uncertainty. The domestic supply capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the Middle East conflict, and the medium - term supply increase in Indonesia is restricted. The demand shows a slight recovery, and the inventory has decreased. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and in the medium term, the price center is expected to rise [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, and the supply is restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices and subsidy reduction, and the inventory has decreased. In the short and medium terms, the price is expected to oscillate strongly [10]. - **Zinc**: The macro - pessimistic sentiment has eased. The supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the peak consumption season. The overall supply - demand is weak, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Lead**: The cost support is stable. The production of lead ingots is at a high level, the demand of lead - acid battery enterprises is gradually recovering, but the terminal demand is weak. The lead price is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Nickel**: The supply pressure has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian policy has adjusted the market's expectation of nickel balance. The nickel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the implementation of Indonesian policies needs to be continuously monitored [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material price is stable, providing cost support. The production in March is expected to increase, and the terminal demand is cautious. The inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless - steel price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the Indonesian policies need to be continuously monitored [16]. - **Tin**: The supply problem has eased, but the supply in the main production areas is still fragile. The demand is expected to continue to grow. The tin price has bottom support but is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation in the short term, and is expected to oscillate [17][18]. 3.2行情监测 - **Copper**: Not provided in the given content - **Alumina**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum**: Not provided in the given content - **Aluminum Alloy**: Not provided in the given content - **Zinc**: Not provided in the given content - **Lead**: Not provided in the given content - **Nickel**: Not provided in the given content - **Stainless Steel**: Not provided in the given content - **Tin**: Not provided in the given content 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On March 25, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2505.87, down 0.37%; the commodity 20 index was 2799.49, up 0.16%; the industrial products index was 2541.47, down 1.12%. The non - ferrous metals index on March 25, 2026, was 2594.45, with a daily increase of 0.47%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.84%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 3.41% [145][147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Pessimistic sentiment has eased, and base metals are expected to stop falling and fluctuate. The improvement in supply and demand is expected to support prices. The information released by Trump about the easing of the military conflict between the US and Iran has triggered short - covering, which helps to improve short - term panic. In the medium term, supply - side disturbance risks still support prices, and actual demand and supply - demand are expected to continue to improve. Base metals are expected to show a fluctuating trend [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **View**: Macro uncertainties increase, and copper prices fluctuate widely. The copper price is affected by high inventory in the short term, and the recent rebound of the US dollar index may lead to a fluctuating performance. In the medium term, it is expected to be in a fluctuating state [6]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 55 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton; the spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 67.2 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7 US dollars/dry ton [6]. - **Main Logic**: With the fermentation of the Middle East conflict, energy prices fluctuate sharply, increasing market concerns about macro uncertainties. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, the spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level and still falling, and the supply of scrap copper is also tight. The supply - side contraction expectation of refined copper is further strengthened. On the demand side, as the peak demand season approaches, the inventory of refined copper has started to decline, and the supply - demand of copper has improved marginally [6]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **View**: Supported by the ore policy expectation in Guinea, the alumina price remains strong. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [7]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2772.4 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 yuan/ton; the alumina warehouse receipt was 406,877 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,274 tons [7]. - **Main Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has magnified the fluctuations in the market. The Middle East geopolitical issue remains unresolved, and risk assets are generally under pressure. Fundamentally, the operating capacity of alumina fluctuates little, the balance between upstream and downstream has improved significantly but is still slightly in surplus, the warehouse receipt level is constantly increasing, and the spot quotation has risen slightly. The Middle East issue has continuously disturbed the electrolytic aluminum production, putting pressure on the demand for alumina, but the increase in freight and auxiliary material prices also brings the expectation of cost support. Recently, there have been new disturbances at the ore end, intensifying market concerns about resource stability, and the market price has run strongly in the short term [7]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **View**: Macro sentiment fluctuates, and aluminum prices fluctuate. In the short term, it is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations. In the medium term, the supply - demand is expected to tighten, and the center of aluminum prices is expected to continue to rise [8][9]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 145 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton; the inventory of aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 1356,000 tons, with no month - on - month change; the inventory of aluminum rods in the main domestic consumption areas was 353,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons; the electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 403,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 198 tons [8]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, the US economic data continues to show structural differentiation, and there is strong uncertainty in the Middle East geopolitical conflict. On the supply side, the domestic built - in production capacity remains stable, and the smelting profit remains high; the Middle East geopolitical conflict increases the disturbance of overseas aluminum supply, and Indonesia is restricted by electricity and other factors, so there are still constraints on the medium - term supply increase. On the demand side, the weekly initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but the inhibitory effect of high prices on demand still exists, and the spot remains at a discount. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased, and the proportion of molten aluminum remains low. The subsequent demand performance and inventory changes need to be concerned [8][9]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The market follows the aluminum ingot, and the price fluctuates. In the short and medium term, it is expected to maintain a fluctuating and strong trend [10]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton; the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23,502 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 612 yuan/ton [10]. - **Main Logic**: On the cost side, the price of scrap aluminum follows the aluminum ingot, the quotation remains high, and the tight supply situation is difficult to change in the short term, with strong cost support. On the supply side, the operating rate continues to be low, and the tax refund policy and tax transfer may still restrict the supply in the medium term. On the demand side, the policy of replacing old cars with new ones continues to be implemented, but the subsidy intensity has declined. In the short term, high prices suppress downstream demand, and it is still mainly based on rigid - demand replenishment at low prices. In terms of inventory, the weekly social inventory has decreased [10]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **View**: The support of low TC is emerging, and zinc prices fluctuate. In the short term, it may stabilize in a fluctuating manner. Overall, it shows a fluctuating trend [11][12]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 5 yuan/ton, that of Guangdong 0 zinc to the main contract was - 20 yuan/ton, and that of Tianjin 0 zinc to the main contract was - 30 yuan/ton; as of March 23, the total inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 219,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons [11]. - **Main Logic**: Macroeconomically, against the background of the continuous military conflict between the US and Iran and the sharp rise in oil prices, in the short term, investors' concerns about economic slowdown have increased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has faded again, with a pessimistic macro sentiment. On the supply side, the decline of zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, the refinery profit has not improved significantly, but the import volume of zinc ore has increased marginally, and the output of zinc ingots has continued to rise. The export of previously locked - price zinc ingots has ended one after another, and the supply pressure of domestic zinc ingots has increased. On the demand side, domestic consumption is gradually entering the peak season, but the new orders at the terminal are limited, and the overall demand expectation is average. Overall, the short - term supply pressure of zinc ingots has increased, but there is still an expectation of inventory reduction during the consumption peak season, and zinc prices may stabilize in a fluctuating manner in the short term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices fluctuate [13][14]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,850 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), the price difference between primary and recycled lead was 0 yuan/ton (no change); the price of 1 lead ingot was 16,200 - 16,300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16,250 yuan/ton, no month - on - month change; the social inventory of lead ingots in the main domestic markets on March 16, 2026 was 63,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,500 tons; the latest warehouse receipt of Shanghai lead was 58,024 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 150 tons [11][13]. - **Main Logic**: In the spot market, the spot discount has widened, the price difference between primary and recycled lead ingots has remained stable, and the futures warehouse receipt has decreased. On the supply side, the price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, the lead price has remained stable, the loss of recycled lead smelting has narrowed slightly, smelters have resumed production one after another, and the weekly output of lead ingots has increased. On the demand side, at the initial stage of the implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles, consumers are more wait - and - see, and the orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly. However, as it gradually enters the traditional consumption peak season, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises will gradually recover [14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **View**: The market fluctuates, and attention should be paid to changes on the supply side. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [15][16]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57,632 tons, a month - on - month increase of 942 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 282,792 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 720 tons; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th; on March 16, GEM stated in an interactive platform that in February 2026, an accident occurred in the temporary slag storage area of its Qingmeibang Park in Indonesia due to a landslide caused by heavy rain. The company has completed the rectification as required, and there is no issue of license revocation. This rectification only involves part of the HPAL production capacity of Qingmeibang, which has little impact on the overall operation of the company. The company is accelerating the completion and acceptance of the permanent slag storage, aiming to fully release the production capacity in the shortest time [15]. - **Main Logic**: On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel output decreased month - on - month in February, and the output of MIHP and ferronickel in Indonesia also decreased to a certain extent month - on - month in February. The overall supply - side pressure of nickel has slightly decreased, but the overall visible inventory still remains at a high level. The subsequent realization of peak - season demand needs to be focused on. In terms of policy disturbances, according to the news from Mysteel, Indonesia has revised down the nickel ore quota for 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's expectation of the nickel balance. The follow - up changes in Indonesia's policy need to be continuously tracked [15][16]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **View**: The nickel iron price remains stable, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. It is expected to show a fluctuating and strong trend, and the follow - up progress of relevant policies in Indonesia needs to be continuously concerned [17]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 41,725 tons, a month - on - month increase of 827 tons; in the spot market, on March 23, the spot premium of Foshan Hongwang 304 to the stainless - steel main contract was 315 yuan/ton; on March 23, the market price of high - nickel iron in China was 1,080 - 1,110 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), the same as on the 20th [17]. - **Main Logic**: The nickel iron price is strong, and the chromium end is stable. There is still a certain cost support for stainless steel. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday in February, the production schedule is expected to decline significantly month - on - month, but in March, the production schedule is expected to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month. The terminal demand still maintains a relatively cautious attitude. The subsequent realization of the peak season needs to be focused on. In terms of inventory, the current social inventory has slightly decreased, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [17]. 3.1.9 Tin - **View**: The macro sentiment is weak, and tin prices fluctuate. It is expected to maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. - **Information Analysis**: On March 23, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 35 tons month - on - month to 8,920 tons; the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 508 tons month - on - month to 8,978 tons; the Shanghai tin position decreased by 2,298 lots month - on - month to 75,930 lots; in the spot market, on March 23, the average price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingot was 341,450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12,150 yuan/ton [18]. - **Main Logic**: The supply problem of tin has been alleviated to some extent. Wa State is accelerating the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas in low - altitude areas, and it is expected that the ore output in Wa State will gradually increase; in Indonesia, according to the Indonesian Mining Association, the Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Administration has set the tin production target for 2026 at 65,860 tons, higher than the previously expected quota of 60,000 tons, and the supply expectation has become looser; the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still severe, and the supply risk remains high. In the future, although the supply - side problem of tin has been alleviated compared with before, the supply in the main production areas is still vulnerable. On the demand side, the rapid development of AI has driven the semiconductor industry to maintain high growth, but the global new photovoltaic installed capacity may not increase this year, and the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales may decline. However, other traditional fields such as tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals remain basically stable. Considering the inventory reconstruction in the industrial chain, it is expected that the demand for tin ingots will continue to grow. Overall, there are still supply risks, and with the resilience of downstream demand, it is expected that there will still be support at the bottom of tin prices. However, in the short term, it is suppressed by weak macro sentiment and the expectation of supply recovery, and the price will maintain a fluctuating operation [18][19]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific monitoring content provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数（2026 - 03 - 23） - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2,531.78, a month - on - month increase of 0.33%; the commodity 20 index was 2,810.80, a month - on - month decrease of 0.34%; the industrial product index was 2,583.01, a month - on - month increase of 1.73% [147]. - **Plate Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on March 23, 2026 was 2,553.80, with a daily increase or decrease of - 0.91%, a five - day increase or decrease of - 5.41%, a one - month increase or decrease of - 4.36%, and a year - to - date increase or decrease of - 4.92% [149].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report's industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative, with the joint US - Israel strike on Iran reducing Middle East crude oil supply and pushing up oil prices, leading to inflation risks. The Fed's interest rate decision is hawkish. Basic metals are experiencing panic selling, with prices expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the duration of the US - Iran conflict and oil price trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: Macro - risk aversion has increased, causing copper prices to drop significantly. The Fed's stance is hawkish, and the US dollar index has risen, pressuring copper prices. Copper supply is tight, and demand is improving. In the short term, copper prices are expected to be volatile [6][7]. - **Alumina**: The non - ferrous sector has seen a collective sell - off, and alumina prices have fallen from high levels. The market is in a state of slight surplus, but cost support exists. It is expected to have wide - range volatility [7]. - **Aluminum**: With a pessimistic macro outlook, aluminum prices have declined. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and in the short term, prices are expected to remain high and volatile. In the medium term, the price center may rise [8][10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price has declined following the aluminum ingot. Cost support is strong, and supply and demand are stable. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short and medium terms [17]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventories have increased significantly, and zinc prices are declining. In the short term, prices may remain high and volatile, and in the long term, there is a risk of decline [13][14]. - **Lead**: The non - ferrous sector sentiment is weak, and lead prices are declining. Supply and demand are in a state of balance, and prices are expected to be volatile [16][19]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous sector has corrected, and nickel prices have fallen. Supply pressure has slightly decreased, but inventories are high. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [20][21]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market has corrected following the decline in nickel prices. Cost support exists, and production is expected to increase. It is expected to be slightly bullish, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [22][23]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment has weakened, and tin prices have dropped significantly. Supply is expected to increase, but demand is also growing. Prices are expected to be volatile [23]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 19, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 19, 2026, the index was 2616.34, with a daily decline of 2.17%, a 5 - day decline of 3.56%, a 1 - month decline of 2.91%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.59% [152].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic outlook is negative due to factors such as the US - Israel joint strike on Iran, which has reduced Middle East crude oil supply, pushed up oil prices, and raised inflation risks, thus weakening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Basic metals are under pressure in the short - term, but aluminum prices are expected to remain strong. In the medium - term, the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends need to be monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情观点 - **Copper**: The US dollar index rebounds, putting pressure on copper prices. With increasing energy prices, US inflation risks rise, and the US dollar's safe - haven property boosts the index. Copper ore supply is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price strengthens in the short - term due to renewed disturbances in the ore end. Although the upstream - downstream balance has improved, it is still slightly in surplus. The cost is supported by rising shipping and auxiliary material prices, while the demand is pressured by electrolytic aluminum production disturbances. Alumina is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [6]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts are highly uncertain, causing a slight decline in aluminum prices. The domestic production capacity is stable, while overseas supply is disturbed. The initial - stage operating rate has slightly recovered, but high prices suppress demand. Social inventory continues to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may rise in the medium - term [7][8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The cost support continues, and the price drops slightly. The cost is supported by the high - priced scrap aluminum, and the supply is constrained by policies. The demand is affected by the weakening subsidy policy. The price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - and medium - term [9][15]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory accumulates significantly, and zinc prices decline. The macro - economic slowdown concerns increase, but the situation has slightly improved. The zinc supply is increasing, while the demand is average. Zinc prices may oscillate in the short - term and have a downward trend in the long - term [11][12]. - **Lead**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound. The spot discount widens, and the production of lead ingots increases. Although the demand for electric bicycles is weak, the lead - acid battery operating rate will rise. Lead prices are expected to oscillate [16][17]. - **Nickel**: High visible inventory suppresses the market, and the price oscillates. The nickel supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory remains high. The adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore quota affects the market's balance expectation. Nickel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [17][18][19]. - **Stainless steel**: The high price of nickel - iron supports the stainless - steel market, and the price oscillates. The cost is supported, and the production is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. Stainless - steel prices are expected to be volatile and strong [20][21]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment weakens, and tin prices are under pressure. The supply in Wabang and Indonesia is expected to increase, while the supply in Congo (Kinshasa) is at high risk. The tin ore supply is tight, and the demand is growing. Tin prices are expected to oscillate [22]. 3.2行情监测 - **Commodity Index**: On March 18, 2026, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 0.38%, 0.36%, and 0.31% respectively [150]. - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On March 18, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index fell by 0.94% on the day, 1.58% in the past 5 days, 0.52% in the past month, and 0.43% since the beginning of the year [152].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The macroeconomic outlook is negative, and base metals are under pressure to fluctuate. The short - term high - oil - price environment leads to a negative macro outlook, and base metals are generally under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply issues, and the medium - term focus is on the duration of the US - Iran war and oil price trends [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Outlook Copper - **View**: The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on copper prices, which are expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the spot premium of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was - 115 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 180 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 60.02 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous day. In February this year, the US CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.5% year - on - year. - **Logic**: The increase in energy prices and the rise of the US dollar index due to the Iran conflict put pressure on copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tight, and the smelting profit is falling, leading to an expected contraction in refined copper supply. As the demand peak season approaches, the inventory accumulation of refined copper slows down [5]. Alumina - **View**: The price of alumina strengthens in the short term and is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2733.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The alumina warehouse receipt was 405450 tons, an increase of 3611 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The macro - sentiment amplifies the market fluctuations. The operating capacity of alumina is relatively stable, and the supply - demand balance has improved but is still slightly in surplus. The Middle East issue affects the demand for alumina, but the cost is supported by rising freight and auxiliary material prices. The recent mine - end disturbances strengthen the price [6]. Aluminum - **View**: Geopolitical conflicts increase supply disturbances, and aluminum prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The spot premium was - 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas was 134.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US economic data shows a structural divide, and the Middle East geopolitical conflict is uncertain. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. The overseas supply is disturbed by the conflict, and the Indonesian supply is restricted. The demand is gradually picking up, and the inventory is still accumulating. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the price center may rise [7][8]. Aluminum Alloy - **View**: The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations. - **Analysis**: On March 16, the price of ADC12 was 24600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The domestic average spot price of electrolytic aluminum was 24784 yuan/ton, a decrease of 312 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of scrap aluminum is high, and the supply is tight. The supply may be restricted by policies. The demand is affected by high prices, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short term, the price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and in the medium term, the cost support is strengthened [9][10][13]. Zinc - **View**: The US - Iran war has not eased, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate downward. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was - 85 yuan/ton, and the inventory of zinc ingots in six places was 23.62 million tons, an increase of 0.51 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The US - Iran conflict and rising oil prices lead to concerns about economic slowdown and a weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The supply of zinc ore is increasing, and the domestic supply pressure is rising. The demand is in the peak season but the terminal orders are limited. In the short term, the price may fluctuate at a high level, and in the long term, there is a downward trend [11][12]. Lead - **View**: The cost support is stable, and lead prices stop falling and rebound, expected to fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9925 yuan/ton, and the price of 1 lead ingots was 16400 - 16500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16450 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The social inventory of lead ingots was 8.01 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The spot discount is expanding, and the profit of secondary lead smelting is improving, leading to an increase in production. The demand is in the traditional peak season, but the terminal demand is weak. The inventory may still accumulate, but the cost support is strong [13][14]. Nickel - **View**: Nickel prices fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt was 57247 tons, a decrease of 60 tons compared to the previous day, and the LME nickel inventory was 283740 tons, a decrease of 174 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel has slightly decreased, but the inventory is still high. The Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota has adjusted the market's balance expectation. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [14][15]. Stainless Steel - **View**: The price of nickel iron is strong, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory was 53962 tons, an increase of 1188 tons compared to the previous day. - **Logic**: The cost of stainless steel is supported by the strong price of nickel iron. The production in February decreased due to the Spring Festival, but is expected to increase in March. The terminal demand is cautious. The price is expected to be strong with fluctuations, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policies [17][18]. Tin - **View**: The spot trading is dull, and tin prices fluctuate. - **Analysis**: On March 17, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 60 tons to 8715 tons, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 322 tons to 11673 tons. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is expected to increase as the Wa State restarts production and Indonesia raises its production target. The demand in the semiconductor and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing, but the short - term price is suppressed by the macro - sentiment and supply recovery expectation [18]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Comprehensive Index**: On March 17, 2026, the comprehensive index was 2591.86, a decrease of 0.61%; the commodity 20 index was 2926.66, a decrease of 0.58%; the industrial product index was 2565.21, a decrease of 0.51%. - **Special Index - Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On March 17, 2026, the non - ferrous metal index was 2699.75, with a daily increase of 0.42%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.77%, a 1 - month increase of 0.70%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.51% [144][146].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that geopolitical events in the Middle East have impacted global risk assets, while the A-share market has shown relative stability [1] - The A-share market experienced adjustments, but the extent and duration were limited, indicating its resilience [1] - Policy expectations, particularly regarding expanding domestic demand and further reforms, are key drivers for the spring market [1] Group 2 - The market experienced fluctuations last week, with an increase in average daily trading volume to approximately 26,000 billion yuan, which is higher than the previous week [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index found support above the 60-day moving average and closed near the 5-day moving average, while the Shenzhen Component Index had a larger pullback but also found support [1] - The market's focus was primarily on upstream resource sectors, with the normalized ratio of the CSI 2000 to the CSI 300 falling to 1.50, indicating a slight decline from the previous week [1] Group 3 - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high before quickly adjusting, indicating a return to a box consolidation pattern [1] - The current market environment is characterized by box oscillation and structural trends, with notable sector differentiation and industry rotation [1] - Short-term attention should be given to the technical resistance at previous highs and whether the index can regain and stabilize above the 5-day moving average [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the positive outlook for China's economy and stock market, driven by effective macroeconomic policies and improved market confidence [1] - The manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1% in December, ending an eight-month contraction, indicating a recovery in both supply and demand [1] - The futures market traders maintain an optimistic outlook for the macro economy and stock market over the next three months, as indicated by the trader survey index [1] Group 2 - Global economic conditions remain weak, with the global manufacturing PMI fluctuating between 49% and 50% for ten consecutive months, indicating insufficient upward momentum [1] - In December, futures investors showed a slight increase in bullish sentiment towards black commodities, while sentiment for non-ferrous commodities remained stable, and there was a decline in bullish sentiment for agricultural and energy chemical sectors [1] - The ongoing release of policy dividends and the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan" are contributing to the accumulation of new economic momentum in China, enhancing domestic circulation and international competitiveness [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in international gold prices, which surpassed $4630 per ounce on January 12, marking a historical record since its listing. This surge is attributed to a combination of macro geopolitical tensions and increased market demand for safe-haven assets [1] - Analysts suggest that the current geopolitical landscape is experiencing an "escalation of confrontation" and "strategic shifts," particularly in the Middle East and South America, which is driving persistent demand for gold as a safe haven [1] - Weak economic data from the U.S. has accelerated market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in real interest rates, which in turn has pushed gold prices higher [1] Group 2 - In response to the rising volatility and speculative atmosphere in the gold market, exchanges and major commercial banks have implemented various regulatory measures, including adjusting margin requirements and increasing risk levels to stabilize the market [1][2] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has changed the margin setting for gold and silver futures contracts to a percentage of the contract's nominal value, raising the margin rate for certain non-high-risk portfolios to approximately 5%, which increases trading costs for participants [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued multiple risk warnings within a month, and major banks like the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have raised the risk level of their gold accumulation products to align with the increased volatility and customer risk tolerance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The hot-rolled coil market is experiencing a stepwise decline in prices during Q4 2025, with a narrowing price fluctuation range and a downward shift in average prices due to high supply, low demand, and increasing inventory levels [3][13]. Price Trends - The highest price in Q4 was recorded at 3379.09 CNY/ton in early October, while the lowest was 3262.05 CNY/ton by the end of December, resulting in a quarterly average of 3299.31 CNY/ton, which is a 3.13% decrease compared to Q3 [3][13]. Production Levels - In October 2025, the monthly production of hot-rolled coils reached a historical high of 29.4362 million tons, marking the first time it surpassed 29 million tons in a single month. The total production for Q4 was 86.7394 million tons, reflecting a 2.12% increase from Q3 [5][15]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The transaction volume for hot-rolled coils in Q4 was 1.6675 million tons, a 17.47% decrease from the 2.0204 million tons in Q3, indicating a weak demand environment amidst increasing supply [7][17]. Inventory Trends - By the end of 2025, social inventory of hot-rolled coils stood at 3.0991 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 25.75%. The high inventory levels have contributed to a downward pressure on prices as traders focus on reducing stock through price cuts [9][19]. Macro Economic Factors - Positive macroeconomic signals have emerged, with the IMF projecting China's GDP growth at 5.0% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, which has improved market expectations and provided some buffer against price declines [11][22]. Future Outlook - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to see a price trend of initially declining followed by a potential increase, with January likely experiencing further price drops due to seasonal factors and reduced demand, while February and March may see stabilization and subsequent price recovery as demand improves [12][22][23].