期货研究报告 宝城期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 9 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 通胀数据向好修复，国债期货震荡整理 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。消息面，统计局公布了 12 月通胀数据， CPI 温和上涨，PPI 跌幅缩窄，表明在促消费和反内卷政策的持续推动下， 价格指数向好修复。考虑到 12 月制造业 PMI 数据也表现较强韧性，宏观经 济预期较为积极，短期内降息的可能性继续回落，国债期货价格承压。不过 随着国债现券价格回落，国债到期收益率隐含的降息预期消退，政策利率的 锚定效果显现，国债期货下行空间有限。中长期来看，内需有效需求不足的 问题仍需政策面保持偏宽松的货币信用环境，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的 来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人 ...

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2026年1月8日 Z0021810 冠帝斯 | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#锡 | 355950 | 341050 | 14900 | 4.37% | | | SMM 1#锡升贴水 | 350 | 350 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 长江 1#锡 | 356450 | 341550 | 14900 | 4.36% | | | LME 0-3升贴水 | -65.00 | -30.01 | -34.99 | -116.59% | 美元/吨 | | 内外比价及进口盈亏 | | | | | | | 品种 | 那值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 进口盈亏 | -8688.75 | -11887.18 | 3198.43 | 26.91% | 元/吨 | | 沪伦比值 | 7.97 | 7.89 | ' | - | | | 月间价差 | | | | ...

铜观点 委内瑞拉事件爆发后，市场对金属等矿产资源供应稳定性担忧加剧，昨日有色 金属板块共振，铜价再创新高，触及105000元/吨。我们认为铜的中长期基本面 仍然良好. 供应端的资本开支约束支撑底部重心逐步上抬。但短期来看. 前期 价格大幅冲高后. 已对终端真实需求形成显著抑制. 下游开工率、订单疲软. 现货贴水达年内新低水平。从我们构建的库销比及铜价模型来看,当前铜价对 远期利多计价已较为充分,短期的价格存在一定非理性高估,但在市场投机情 绪高涨、风险偏好较高的宏观环境下、短期价格仍有理由维持偏强走势。沪铜 期权波动率维持高位,短期价格波动或加剧,主力关注99000-100000支撑。 哪里 我 2026年1月7日 | ST FUTURES | | | --- | --- | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 103665 | 100575 | +3090.00 | 3.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | ...

中信证券称，增量资金入市不会是2026年市场迈上一个新台阶的主要因素。2026年最大的预期差来自于 外需与内需的平衡，对外"征税"、补贴内需应是大势所趋，今年是个重要的开端。站在开年，考虑到去 年末的资金热度并不算高，在人心思涨的环境下开年后市场震荡向上的概率更高。 股票频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 1月5日，时隔34个交易日，上证指数盘中重回4000点。截至发稿，上证指数涨0.85%，报4002.40点。保 险股领涨，脑机接口、半导体等题材活跃。 中信建投指出，A股跨年行情如期展开，今年元旦市场面临的流动性环境和汇率环境明显好于前两年。 人民币汇率保持坚挺，有利的外部环境或将推动A股元旦后迎来"开门红"行情。同时国内流动性环境整 体宽松，也有利于跨年行情的展开。人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善及资金面 积极信号等多重利好共同推动港股开年大涨，这些利好也同样有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, as the Fed cuts interest rates (market expects a cut to 3.0 - 3.25% by the end of 2026), commodities may bottom out and present allocation opportunities [1]. - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to oscillate in the range of 1.5 - 2.0%. Slow fiscal spending and inflation recovery will limit the downside space of Treasury bond futures [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index will oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, appropriately reduce positions, and pay attention to the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process and specific measures to expand terminal consumption in China [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Review - In 2025, there was a divergence in Sino - US commodities, with US commodities being stronger and Chinese commodities being weaker. The overall view at the end of 2024 for 2025 was that Treasury bonds would oscillate, stock indices would be slightly bullish, and commodities would be bearish, which was generally correct, except that US commodities were stronger than expected [5]. - In the US, with the Fed's interest - rate cuts, Trump's policies of adding tariffs externally, cutting taxes internally, and restricting immigration, the US economy may face stagflation risks. In China, the real estate market still faced pressure in recovery, private fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, and demand was weak. Although a more proactive fiscal policy brought short - term impacts on the stock, bond, and commodity markets, commodities then trended towards reality [5]. - Overseas, on April 2, Trump issued a more - than - expected reciprocal tariff policy, causing commodity prices to plummet. Subsequently, commodity and energy prices continued to weaken. The Fed cut interest rates twice in September and October to address weak employment. The US economy showed stagflation characteristics [5]. - Domestically, after a rebound at the beginning of the year, commercial housing sales continued to weaken, and domestic demand remained weak. In October, China's PPI was - 2.1% and CPI was 0.2%, the first positive CPI growth in Q2 2025 but still at a low level. The prices of domestic - priced black commodities slightly rebounded due to anti - involution meetings and production - cut plans but weakened again as anti - involution expectations cooled. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate strengthened and oscillated at a high level [6]. 2026 Outlook US - The US economic growth is expected to slow down moderately, presenting a pattern of "slowing employment and consumption - high inflation and deficits". The high deficit rate of nearly 6% makes government debt unsustainable. The contradiction between high interest rates and fiscal deficit sustainability is becoming more prominent, posing potential risks to the US economy [8]. - It is estimated that the real GDP growth rate in the US will be about 1.8% in 2026, showing a moderately slowing trend. Consumption and import growth are expected to slow down as fiscal deficits decline; private - sector construction investment growth is expected to continue to slow down due to trade - friction uncertainties, the decline of investment tax credits, and doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure; the consumption and inventory cycles face certain downward pressure [10]. - The labor market shows weak signals. In 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was consistently below 200,000, and the unemployment rate continued to rise. In September 2025, the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. It is expected that the US will still face high unemployment in 2026, and solving labor - market weakness may be the primary goal of monetary and fiscal policies [12]. - The US CPI growth rate is expected to be in the range of 2.2 - 2.9% in 2026, maintaining a relatively high inflation level. Factors contributing to inflation resilience include high salaries and personal consumption expenditures, Trump's policies with inflation - promoting attributes, and the "dovish" stance of the new Fed chairman, which may push up inflation through interest - rate cut expectations [16]. - In 2026, the US will still be in an interest - rate cut cycle, but the path is not smooth. The market expects the federal funds rate to be reduced to the 3.0 - 3.25% range. If inflation does not decline as expected, it will make the interest - rate cut space volatile and increase market fluctuations [18]. - The sustainability of the US fiscal deficit is being tested. The US national debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars in October 2025. The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to add about 3.4 trillion US dollars in fiscal deficits in the next decade, on top of the debt accumulated by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act". To reduce the fiscal deficit rate to 3%, a combination of reducing fiscal spending, increasing fiscal revenue, and cutting interest rates is required [19]. China - China's inflation data was weak in 2025. With the support of policies such as the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026. In October 2025, China's PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and CPI was 0.2% year - on - year. After an increase in commercial housing sales within the year, it declined again, and the year - on - year increase in M1 was significant [24]. - In the short term, it is still difficult to see an obvious upward trend in inflation. The Fed's high - interest - rate policy in H1 2025 pressured China's exports; the decline in commercial housing prices led to continuous negative growth in new household credit and real - estate investment, and it is difficult to reverse the weakening trend of housing prices under the "housing is for living in, not for speculation" principle; there is over - capacity in some industries, and the aging population has depressed private - sector demand. The implementation of anti - involution policies and production cuts due to processing losses are expected to increase bottom - level fluctuations in commodities in 2026 [26]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, with reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to ensure sufficient market liquidity, and new structural monetary policy tools to support the development of small and micro enterprises. The reasons for strengthening supportive monetary policy include high real interest rates due to slow inflation and the need to create a more liquid environment for economic development and local - government leverage management [27]. - To boost inflation and economic growth, China needs a combination of fiscal, stock - market, real - estate, and consumption - subsidy policies. In 2025, the central bank only adjusted the LPR once in May. The weakening real - estate market has weakened the wealth effect, consumer confidence, and domestic demand, and strengthened residents' savings motivation. In October 2025, China's household deposit balance exceeded 160 trillion yuan, almost double the level at the end of 2019 before the pandemic [28]. - The bull market in the Chinese stock market in 2025 led to a deposit - transfer effect, but it has not been transmitted to the consumption end. The number of new stock - market accounts increased with the rise of the CSI 300, but may decline in November and December. In 2025, new RMB loans were at a five - year low, while new government bonds increased, indicating an expansionary fiscal policy. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, but consumption data did not improve significantly. To transmit the deposit - transfer effect to consumption in 2026, the stock - market bull market needs to continue, and policies need to boost consumption [30]. 2026 Allocation Outlook - In the US, with a downward - shifting interest - rate center and high inflation, the US economic resilience is expected to decline, consumption and imports will fall, and employment may be poor. Expansionary fiscal policies may cause debt - sustainability issues. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level between 3.5 - 4.5%, the US dollar will oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3), gold prices are high, and non - ferrous metals should be over - allocated. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities arising from the oscillation of US consumption and imports [33]. - In China, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026, and PPI will rise to - 0.5 - - 1%. There is room for interest - rate cuts in the monetary - policy end. With liquidity support, A - shares are expected to remain active in trading, and Treasury bond yields present allocation opportunities. The implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution policies may support commodity prices at the bottom, and prices may bottom out in H2 2026 [33]. - In asset allocation, non - ferrous metals and Treasury bonds should be over - allocated, and equities should be neutrally allocated: - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds will oscillate widely between 3.5% - 4.5% and is expected to decline [33]. - The US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3). Attention should be paid to improvements in the US fiscal and trade deficits, which will affect the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the US dollar's downward trend [34]. - Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level between 4400 - 4500. It is relatively expensive, and some non - ferrous rare - earth metals should be allocated. Global central - bank gold purchases and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle will push up the gold - price center [34]. - The target of the CSI 300 is 4300 - 5200 points. Attention should be paid to the boost of policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan to the technology and energy sectors, and the continuation of the structural bull market in H2 2025. Also, pay attention to the re - balance between stocks and bonds [34]. - The yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to oscillate between 1.5 - 2.0%, and there will be good allocation opportunities when the interest rate rises to 2.0% [34]. - Commodities are expected to present bottom - level allocation opportunities in 2026. Attention should be paid to phased opportunities in H2 2026, such as crude oil, coking coal, live pigs, and some chemical products [34][35].

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/12/3 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,324 | +2↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 954557 | +62471↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -70,778 | +17734↑ HC1-5合 ...

周一，白银价格一度触及每盎司58.84美元的历史新高，延续了上周五近6%的涨幅，并已连续六个交易日上涨。今年以来，白新价值几乎翻了一 番，其涨幅远超黄金约60%的强劲表现。 这一轮凌厉涨势的背后，是交易员对全球供应持续紧张的投机性押注。当比特币及加密货币市场整体下挫时，实体白银的逼空格局正在上演。继 数月前伦敦市场出现历史性挤兑后，如今压力已转移至其他中心。 市场参与者正密切关注这一轮由中国库存告急、强劲工业需求、投机热潮以及潜在贸易政策风险共同导演的"完美风暴"。在全球主要库存中心难 以提供有效缓冲的背景下，白银市场的脆弱性正被放大，任何新的冲击都可能引发更剧烈的价格波动。 上海库存告急，全球短缺"多米诺骨牌"倒下 一场由实体供应短缺引发的风暴正席卷全球白银市场。在上海期货交易所（SHFE）库存骤降至近十年低点之际，白银价格接力黄金的涨势，飙升 至历史新高。 Wind数据显示，11月24日当周上海黄金交易所白银库存下降58.83吨，降至715.875吨，创下2016年7月3日以来新低。11月25日，该库库存虽勉强 累库21.3吨，但仍然处于近十年低位。 金瑞期货分析师Zijie Wu指出，"紧张源于对伦敦的 ...

| Extern FAMILIE FOR | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | 2025/12/02 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | Z0010820 | F0286636 | 黄志鸿 | Z0015761 | F3051824 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | Z0020036 | F03094002 | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | 7000 | 1000 | 12605 | JM2605 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are at historical highs, influenced by supply shortages and weak traditional demand, creating a complex market dynamic [1] Supply Analysis - The supply side is constrained by tight mining supply and pressured smelting profits, with a significant decline in new large copper mining projects since 2015 [2] - Major copper-producing countries like Chile and Peru have seen a notable decrease in ore grades over the past decade, limiting global copper concentrate supply growth [2] - By Q3 2025, global copper mine output is expected to drop by 4.7% year-on-year, with significant production declines from key mines such as Antamina in Peru (down 26%) and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo (down 28%) [2] - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) projects a supply-demand gap of 150,000 tons in 2025, which will widen to 300,000 tons in 2026 [2] Smelting and Processing Fees - Copper concentrate processing fees (TC) have hit a record low since 1992, with long-term TC at $21.25 per ton in 2025, a 73.4% decrease from 2024 [3] - The tight copper concentrate market indicates an oversupply of smelting capacity relative to ore supply, leading to potential production limitations for electrolytic copper if by-product prices decline [3] - In September and October 2025, China's electrolytic copper production fell by 4.31% and 2.62% month-on-month, respectively [3] Demand Analysis - Traditional demand sectors such as real estate and home appliances are underperforming, with a projected 1.67% year-on-year decline in copper consumption from the construction sector in 2025 [5] - The home appliance sector faces pressure from both domestic and export markets, with a slowdown in production growth observed since the second half of 2025 [5] - Conversely, the power and new energy sectors are providing strong support for copper demand, accounting for 40%-50% of total copper consumption [6] - Significant growth in renewable energy sectors, with solar and wind power installations and electric vehicle production increasing by 46.76%, 59.40%, and 34.98% year-on-year, respectively, is expected to sustain copper demand [6] Macroeconomic Factors - Copper prices are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and global economic growth forecasts, with potential for further easing in U.S. monetary policy [7] - Market uncertainty regarding the pace of global economic recovery influences risk appetite, affecting copper price performance [7] - The current market is characterized by a tug-of-war between macroeconomic pricing and fundamental pricing, with supply constraints and stable demand from the power and new energy sectors supporting copper prices [7] - In the medium to long term, the widening supply-demand gap and potential for interest rate cuts may lead to copper prices breaking historical highs [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is volatile but stable, and base metals bottomed out and rebounded. In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro support has weakened. Long - term, with potential domestic incremental stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin, the prices of these metals are expected to rise [1]. - Copper: Due to tight US monetary liquidity, copper prices adjusted in the short term, but are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [8]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating [10]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center [13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum supply remains tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term [15]. - Zinc: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term [18]. - Lead: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish [19]. - Nickel: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile [21]. - Stainless steel: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile [23]. - Tin: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 - **Copper** - **Viewpoint**: US monetary liquidity is tight, causing short - term copper price adjustments. Mid - term outlook is volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Fed cut interest rates in October, but Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. US financial system funding conditions worsened. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper output decreased month - on - month. Spot premiums recovered, and inventories increased. Sino - US leaders' meeting is conducive to cooperation [8][9]. - **Logic**: Macro factors and tight monetary liquidity led to price adjustments. Supply is constrained by mine disruptions and increased scrap copper recycling costs. Demand may pick up as spot turns to premium [10]. - **Alumina** - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are in surplus, and the price is under pressure and fluctuating. - **Analysis**: Alumina spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and warehouse receipts increased [10][11]. - **Logic**: High - cost capacity fluctuates, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. Ore prices loosen slightly, and the price is under pressure. However, low - valuation may attract more funds [11][12]. - **Aluminum** - **Viewpoint**: Pay attention to demand changes, and the price is volatile at a high level, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term price center. - **Analysis**: Aluminum prices and premiums decreased. Aluminum rod and ingot inventories changed slightly. A project will be put into production, and some areas have environmental protection restrictions. Some aluminum has been transported to the US [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is generally positive. Supply is affected by domestic environmental protection and overseas disruptions. Demand is stable after the peak season, and inventory changes should be monitored [14]. - **Aluminum alloy** - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, and volatile in the medium term. - **Analysis**: Alloy prices decreased. The US may restrict scrap aluminum exports, and the estimated scale of the passenger car market decreased [15]. - **Logic**: Cost support is strong due to tight scrap aluminum supply. Supply is affected by raw material shortages and other factors. Demand has a marginal improvement, especially in the automotive market [15]. - **Zinc** - **Viewpoint**: LME zinc inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile at a high level in the short term, with a potential decline in the long term. - **Analysis**: Spot zinc premiums were stable. Inventories increased slightly. A mine's production was affected by an earthquake [18]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is improving. Short - term zinc ore supply is loose, and smelters' profitability is good. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average [18]. - **Lead** - **Viewpoint**: Social inventories are at a low level, and the price is volatile, and is expected to be volatile and bullish. - **Analysis**: Scrap battery prices were stable, and lead prices and inventories increased. Some enterprises are in maintenance or resuming production [19]. - **Logic**: Spot premiums and the price difference between primary and recycled lead decreased. Supply is affected by enterprise maintenance and resumption. Demand is in the peak season, and battery factories'开工率 is high [19]. - **Nickel** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment is volatile, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic nickel inventories increased. Some projects are in progress, and a company's new materials have achieved certain results [21]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally, with loose ore supply and increased inventories [22]. - **Stainless steel** - **Viewpoint**: Ferronickel prices continue to fall, and the price is volatile. - **Analysis**: Futures warehouse receipts were stable. Spot premiums were positive. Ferronickel prices decreased, and the Indonesian government allocated funds for mining projects [23]. - **Logic**: Cost support has weakened. Stainless steel production increased, but downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited. Inventories may accumulate seasonally [24]. - **Tin** - **Viewpoint**: Market sentiment has declined, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish due to supply disruptions. - **Analysis**: LME and domestic tin inventories changed, and spot prices decreased. - **Logic**: Supply is constrained by problems in Myanmar and Indonesia. However, refined tin production has increased, and inventory accumulation restricts price increases [25]. 3.2行情监测 - No specific content for monitoring is provided in the text. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On November 5, 2025, the comprehensive index, the special index (including the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index), and the PPI commodity index showed different changes. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of 0.10%, a 5 - day decline of 1.28%, a 1 - month increase of 2.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.75% [151][152].