12月15日，12日，据路透援引消息人士报道，日本央行12月或将维持加息承诺，加息步伐将取决于经济 对每次加息的反应。最新调查显示，九成经济学家预测日本央行将在12月18日至19日的会议上加息25个 基点，市场定价也显示，12月加息25基点的概率约为90%。然而，报道援引知情人士指出，日本央行将 避免把"中性利率"估值作为指引未来加息路径的主要沟通工具。相反，央行将解释称，未来的加息决策 将取决于观察过去的利率上调如何影响银行贷款、企业融资条件以及其他广泛的经济活动，以此来判断 下一次行动的时机。这一沟通策略旨在消除市场的单一线性预期，即央行会因为利率接近中性水平下限 而机械地停止加息。通过淡化具体的中性利率点位，日本央行试图在复杂的经济环境中保留政策灵活 性，确保货币政策调整与实体经济的承受能力相匹配。 另外，世界黄金协会发布的最新数据显示，11月全球实物黄金ETF流入达52亿美元，已连续六个月实现 流入。截至11月底，资产管理总规模（AUM）增至5300亿美元，较上月环比增长5.4%；总持仓月内上 升1%至3932吨，二者共创月末新高，今年全球黄金ETF流入总量有望创下历史最佳年度表现。从区域 来看，亚洲 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy rates and neutral stance despite calls for easing, indicating a significant moderation in inflation [2][5] - RBI lowered its inflation estimate for FY26 to 2.6% from 3.1% and for the first quarter of FY27 to 4.5% from 4.9%, reflecting a more benign inflation outlook [3] - The current real policy rate stands at 1%, below the estimated neutral real rates of 1.4% to 1.9%, suggesting limited space for rate cuts [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - RBI raised its FY26 GDP growth estimate to 6.8% from 6.5%, primarily due to a strong 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter [6] - However, the GDP growth estimate for the second half of FY26 was lowered by 10 basis points to 6.3%, citing the negative impact of US tariffs on Indian exports [7] - The ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US could potentially reduce tariffs from 50% to 25%, which is crucial for growth [11] Group 3: Internal Deliberations and Future Outlook - There was a divergence of views among RBI members regarding the monetary policy stance, with some advocating for a shift to an accommodative stance [8] - The RBI's decision to pause on rate cuts is influenced by the need to assess the impact of fiscal stimulus measures, such as GST rate cuts, on consumption [12] - Clarity on growth risks, including trade negotiations and domestic consumption trends, is expected by the December policy meeting [13]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicate a potential shift in risk balance, which may justify adjustments in policy stance, leading to significant market reactions globally [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path but is based on data evaluation and its impact on economic outlook and risk balance, reassuring the market that the Fed is not deviating from its usual methods due to political pressures [2] - His nuanced approach, including the "balanced narrative" acknowledging temporary inflation driven by tariffs and recognizing cracks in the labor market, suggests decisions are based on objective economic data rather than political factors [2] Group 2: Market Reaction and Expectation Management - Despite Powell's cautious tone, the market exhibited great enthusiasm, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies, which may have led to an overreaction following his remarks [3] - Powell's careful framing of his statements suggests he aimed for a "small rise" in market sentiment, but prior suppressed emotions resulted in a significant market surge [3] Group 3: Key Signals for the Future - Powell's speech revealed three key signals: a near certainty of a rate cut in September, with the extent (25 or 50 basis points) dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [4] - The market may have already priced in a "win-win" scenario of easing and growth, but economic data remains a variable, with critical reports on non-farm payrolls and CPI due soon [4] - Political risks persist, as ongoing criticism from Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially increasing volatility in the dollar [4] Group 4: Lack of Market Consensus - Although a September rate cut seems likely, there is a lack of consensus on future market direction, with varied interpretations from Wall Street analysts [5] - Some analysts caution that the market may be overreacting, while others suggest increasing positions in rate cut trades, and some predict multiple rate cuts by 2025, indicating uncertainty ahead [5] - This lack of consensus poses a risk for the market, as future economic data and political conditions remain unpredictable [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) is experiencing an upward trend against the US dollar (USD), supported by strong domestic demand and encouraging retail sales data, despite short-term pressure from a strong USD index [1] Economic Indicators - July retail sales data in Australia exceeded expectations, providing solid support for the AUD [1] - Ongoing decline in inflation pressures offers the Reserve Bank of Australia greater flexibility in monetary policy [1] - A robust employment market further strengthens the economic fundamentals of Australia [1] Market Outlook - Analysts believe that structural advantages in the Australian economy will dominate exchange rate trends once market volatility subsides [1] - Most institutions anticipate that the AUD/USD exchange rate will gain upward momentum in the coming months as the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle nears its end [1] Upcoming Data - Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming Australian business confidence index and employment data, which will further validate the sustainability of the economic recovery and provide new guidance for AUD movements [1] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD exchange rate has shown a noticeable adjustment after reaching a peak of 0.6624, with short-term pullback momentum increasing [1] - The current RSI indicator is at 49.5615, indicating a neutral zone without overbought or oversold signals; however, a drop below 45 could signal further downside risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is facing internal divisions regarding its monetary policy direction, with some members advocating for a resumption of interest rate hikes despite external pressures, particularly from potential U.S. tariff increases [1][2]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - BOJ board member Hajime Takata warns that the current pause in the interest rate hike cycle will be temporary, suggesting a return to tightening in response to economic changes [1]. - Takata emphasizes the need for flexibility in monetary policy execution due to heightened uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. trade policies [1]. - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda remains cautious, highlighting that core inflation is still below the 2% target and indicating a preference for clear upward trends before considering rate hikes [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Economic Conditions - Japan's inflation rate is currently the highest among G7 countries, with key living cost indicators reaching a two-year high, yet the BOJ is cautious about the sustainability of this inflation driven by food prices [2]. - The BOJ's unique monetary policy path reflects its specific considerations regarding domestic economic conditions, balancing inflation control with economic growth support [2]. - There is a consensus among BOJ members on the importance of maintaining flexibility and closely monitoring both domestic and international economic developments [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy may become more flexible in response to the Federal Reserve's indication of not rushing to adjust its policy stance [1] Group 1 - A committee member of the Bank of Japan expressed that the current stance of the Federal Reserve could influence Japan's monetary policy [1]