The Reserve Bank of India’s October policy was a close call with growing clamour for easing of policy rates as India’s growth outlook has become more uncertain. India’s real GDP growth outlook is caught between the tailwinds of the GST rate cuts and the headwinds of the US’s steep tariffs. Meanwhile, inflation remains subdued, led by deceleration in food inflation. Despite the heightened uncertainty on India’s growth, RBI on Wednesday maintained status quo on policy rates and retained its neutral stance. T ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicate a potential shift in risk balance, which may justify adjustments in policy stance, leading to significant market reactions globally [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path but is based on data evaluation and its impact on economic outlook and risk balance, reassuring the market that the Fed is not deviating from its usual methods due to political pressures [2] - His nuanced approach, including the "balanced narrative" acknowledging temporary inflation driven by tariffs and recognizing cracks in the labor market, suggests decisions are based on objective economic data rather than political factors [2] Group 2: Market Reaction and Expectation Management - Despite Powell's cautious tone, the market exhibited great enthusiasm, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies, which may have led to an overreaction following his remarks [3] - Powell's careful framing of his statements suggests he aimed for a "small rise" in market sentiment, but prior suppressed emotions resulted in a significant market surge [3] Group 3: Key Signals for the Future - Powell's speech revealed three key signals: a near certainty of a rate cut in September, with the extent (25 or 50 basis points) dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [4] - The market may have already priced in a "win-win" scenario of easing and growth, but economic data remains a variable, with critical reports on non-farm payrolls and CPI due soon [4] - Political risks persist, as ongoing criticism from Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially increasing volatility in the dollar [4] Group 4: Lack of Market Consensus - Although a September rate cut seems likely, there is a lack of consensus on future market direction, with varied interpretations from Wall Street analysts [5] - Some analysts caution that the market may be overreacting, while others suggest increasing positions in rate cut trades, and some predict multiple rate cuts by 2025, indicating uncertainty ahead [5] - This lack of consensus poses a risk for the market, as future economic data and political conditions remain unpredictable [5]

周一（8月4日）亚市早盘，澳元兑美元上涨，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:25分，澳元/美元 报价0.6481，上涨0.19%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6468。澳大利亚最新经济数据显示出令人鼓舞 的内需韧性，7月零售销售数据超预期增长，为澳元提供了坚实支撑。 从当前澳元兑美元日线图来看，汇价在触及阶段高点0.6624后出现明显调整，短线回调动能增强。RSI 指标当前报49.5615，接近中性区，暗示汇价尚未形成超买或超卖信号；短期若RSI跌破45，则需警惕下 行风险进一步释放。 与此同时，通胀压力的持续回落为澳洲联储提供了更大的货币政策灵活性，而稳健的就业市场则进一步 巩固了经济基本面。尽管短期内美元指数的强势反弹对澳元构成压制，但分析人士指出，澳洲经济展现 出的这些结构性优势将在市场波动平息后重新主导汇率走势。多数机构认为，随着美联储加息周期接近 尾声，而澳洲经济保持相对稳健，澳元兑美元汇率有望在未来几个月获得持续上行动能。市场参与者正 密切关注即将公布的澳洲商业信心指数和就业数据，这些关键指标将进一步验证经济复苏的可持续性， 并为澳元走势提供新的指引。 ...

新华财经北京7月3日电日本央行审议委员Hajime Takata在日本中部三重县向当地商界领袖发表演讲时警 告称，尽管面临美国可能提高关税的压力，日本央行的加息周期仅会"短暂暂停"，之后将重启。Takata 维持其鹰派立场，认为在经历一段"观望期"后，应继续调整政策方向以应对经济变化。 面对美国总统特朗普提出的将关税提高至35%的威胁，Takata指出，即便在这种不确定性增加的背景 下，日本央行仍在寻找进一步加息的机会，以响应美国政策的变化，并重新回到加息周期。他强调，鉴 于当前高度不确定性的存在，央行需要更加灵活地执行货币政策，避免过度悲观。 然而，与Takata的乐观态度不同，日本央行行长植田和男则表现得更为谨慎。他多次强调核心通胀率仍 低于2%的目标，并希望看到明确上行趋势后再考虑重启加息。此外，他还关注美国贸易政策对日本经 济潜在影响的规模。 值得注意的是，尽管日本的通胀增速处于G7最高水平，且关键生活成本指标创下两年新高，但日本央 行对于近期由食品特别是大米价格上涨导致的通胀飙升持审慎态度。央行行长植田和男认为这种压力将 会消散，因此并未计划改变政策利率。 在全球主要央行纷纷因通胀而加息的大环境下， ...

日本央行会议纪要：一名委员表示，鉴于美联储表示不急于调整政策立场，日本央行的政策可能更加灵 活。 ...