经济增长不确定性

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韩国央行:将密切关注国内外政策环境的变化,将评估对通胀和金融稳定的影响。未来经济增长面临重大不确定性,主要源于与美国的贸易谈判进展。国内需求复苏的步伐存在重大不确定性。
news flash· 2025-07-10 01:34
Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will closely monitor changes in domestic and international policy environments and assess their impact on inflation and financial stability [1] Group 1 - Future economic growth faces significant uncertainty, primarily due to the progress of trade negotiations with the United States [1] - There is substantial uncertainty regarding the pace of domestic demand recovery [1]
金老虎:美国法院裁决特朗普关税越权,黄金“猛虎反扑”让人猝不及防
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-30 03:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. court ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a significant rebound in gold prices, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the gold market to geopolitical and economic developments [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The initial drop in gold prices was influenced by the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on May 28, which prohibited the enforcement of several tariff orders from the Trump administration, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on May 29 indicated a hawkish monetary policy stance, which dampened interest rate cut expectations and reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, causing further price declines [3][4]. - The subsequent reversal in gold prices was driven by the U.S. Federal Appeals Court temporarily halting the previous ruling on tariffs, reigniting concerns over international trade and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Economic data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed a contraction in GDP by 0.2% for Q1 2025, compared to a growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter, raising concerns about economic stability and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.51%, making gold more attractive [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase within a triangular range, with short-term resistance at the 3340 level; a break above this level could signal a stronger upward trend [4]. - The closing price formed a bullish candlestick pattern, indicating that bullish momentum may be stronger than bearish pressure, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing signs of weakening momentum, while the KDJ indicator indicates a potential downward turn, suggesting a cautious approach in the near term [4].
DLSM外汇平台:美联储利率决策的天平倾向 维持现状还是降息?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-29 03:24
Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have subtly shifted, with a high probability of maintaining rates in June and a growing concern for potential rate cuts in July [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Maintaining Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 97.8%, reflecting market assessments of the current economic situation and inflation levels [3]. - Although there are signs of economic recovery in the U.S., growth momentum remains insufficient, particularly in consumption and investment sectors [3]. - Current inflation, while rising, is still within the Fed's 2% target range, and the Fed views this increase as "temporary," influenced by supply chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices [3]. Group 2: Possibility and Considerations for Rate Cuts - Despite the high probability of maintaining rates in June, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in July stands at 22%, indicating concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [4][5]. - Economic growth uncertainty, particularly in consumer confidence and corporate investment, suggests that rate cuts could stimulate borrowing and spending [5]. - Global economic slowdown and ongoing trade tensions are impacting the U.S. economy, and rate cuts could enhance competitiveness and mitigate external pressures [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Recent declines in U.S. Treasury yields reflect an increased market expectation for rate cuts, while the dollar's exchange rate has also been influenced by anticipated Fed easing policies [6]. - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to changing expectations regarding Fed rate decisions, potentially increasing allocations to bonds and equities for higher returns [7]. - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on economic data performance and global economic dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor these factors for timely strategy adjustments [7].