Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% [2] - The rationale behind the rate cut includes rising inflation rates and increased uncertainty in the economic outlook, with a focus on achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term [2][3] - The latest core inflation rate (PCE) in the U.S. is reported at 2.7%, showing a consistent upward trend from previous months [2] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter was -0.6%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, while the second quarter saw a growth of 3.8%, which is still considered weak compared to historical data [3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, up from 4.1%, indicating potential economic distress and triggering the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [3] - The current economic environment is influenced by trade tensions and government shutdowns, complicating the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [4] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised due to political pressures, as evidenced by public dissent from White House economic advisors regarding the adequacy of the recent rate cut [4] - The trend of global interest rate reductions is likely to continue, with the European Central Bank having already lowered rates multiple times since June of the previous year [4][5] - Japan's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, despite rising inflation, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid global economic uncertainties [5] Group 4 - Global central banks are increasingly concerned about economic growth uncertainties, as reflected in fluctuations in international gold prices and long-term bond sell-offs [6] - The weakening of the dollar and declining yields on dollar-denominated financial products may drive capital flows towards emerging markets, presenting potential investment opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officially announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut on October 29, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% [2] - The rationale behind the rate cut includes rising inflation rates and increased uncertainty in economic prospects, with a focus on achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation rate in the long term [2][3] - The latest core inflation (PCE) in the U.S. is reported at 2.7%, showing an upward trend from previous values of 2.6%, 2.5%, and 2.3% [2] Group 2 - The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter was -0.6%, marking the first negative growth since Q1 2022, while the second quarter saw a growth of 3.8%, which is still concerning compared to historical data [3] - The unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, up from 4.2% and 4.1% in previous months, triggering the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustment mechanisms [3] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's independence may be compromised due to political pressures, with changes in the FOMC voting committee composition expected next year [4] - The current trend indicates a likelihood of global interest rates declining, as evidenced by the European Central Bank's continuous rate cuts since June of the previous year [4] Group 4 - Japan's central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite rising core CPI, indicating that trade tensions may have a more significant impact on economic growth than inflation and employment [5] - Global central banks are increasingly concerned about economic growth uncertainties, reflected in fluctuations in international gold prices and long-term bond sell-offs [5]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Inflation Outlook - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) maintained its policy rates and neutral stance despite calls for easing, indicating a significant moderation in inflation [2][5] - RBI lowered its inflation estimate for FY26 to 2.6% from 3.1% and for the first quarter of FY27 to 4.5% from 4.9%, reflecting a more benign inflation outlook [3] - The current real policy rate stands at 1%, below the estimated neutral real rates of 1.4% to 1.9%, suggesting limited space for rate cuts [4] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - RBI raised its FY26 GDP growth estimate to 6.8% from 6.5%, primarily due to a strong 7.8% GDP growth in the first quarter [6] - However, the GDP growth estimate for the second half of FY26 was lowered by 10 basis points to 6.3%, citing the negative impact of US tariffs on Indian exports [7] - The ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the US could potentially reduce tariffs from 50% to 25%, which is crucial for growth [11] Group 3: Internal Deliberations and Future Outlook - There was a divergence of views among RBI members regarding the monetary policy stance, with some advocating for a shift to an accommodative stance [8] - The RBI's decision to pause on rate cuts is influenced by the need to assess the impact of fiscal stimulus measures, such as GST rate cuts, on consumption [12] - Clarity on growth risks, including trade negotiations and domestic consumption trends, is expected by the December policy meeting [13]

Group 1 - The largest gold ETF, iShares Silver Trust, reported a holding of 955.37 tons of gold as of July 30, which is a decrease of 0.86 tons from the previous trading day [1] - As of July 30, the spot gold price closed at $3,275.29 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.54%, with an intraday high of $3,333.94 and a low of $3,267.79 [1] Group 2 - President Trump's aggressive policies are pressuring for looser monetary policy, but Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has adopted a wait-and-see approach amid escalating trade wars, inflation risks, and economic uncertainty [3] - The second quarter GDP data revealed a significant disparity between economic appearance and reality, with a reported growth rate of 3%, largely driven by businesses stockpiling before high tariffs, while domestic demand remains weak [3] - The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on India, increased tariffs on Brazil, and levied a 50% tariff on copper, escalating global trade tensions, particularly highlighted by the breakdown of negotiations with India, a key trading partner [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea will closely monitor changes in domestic and international policy environments and assess their impact on inflation and financial stability [1] Group 1 - Future economic growth faces significant uncertainty, primarily due to the progress of trade negotiations with the United States [1] - There is substantial uncertainty regarding the pace of domestic demand recovery [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. court ruling against Trump's tariffs has led to a significant rebound in gold prices, highlighting the volatility and sensitivity of the gold market to geopolitical and economic developments [3][4]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The initial drop in gold prices was influenced by the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling on May 28, which prohibited the enforcement of several tariff orders from the Trump administration, leading to reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on May 29 indicated a hawkish monetary policy stance, which dampened interest rate cut expectations and reduced the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset, causing further price declines [3][4]. - The subsequent reversal in gold prices was driven by the U.S. Federal Appeals Court temporarily halting the previous ruling on tariffs, reigniting concerns over international trade and increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Economic data released by the U.S. Commerce Department showed a contraction in GDP by 0.2% for Q1 2025, compared to a growth of 2.4% in the previous quarter, raising concerns about economic stability and leading to a decline in the U.S. dollar index by 0.51%, making gold more attractive [3][4]. Group 2: Technical Analysis and Market Outlook - The gold market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase within a triangular range, with short-term resistance at the 3340 level; a break above this level could signal a stronger upward trend [4]. - The closing price formed a bullish candlestick pattern, indicating that bullish momentum may be stronger than bearish pressure, suggesting potential for further upward movement [4]. - Technical indicators such as the MACD are showing signs of weakening momentum, while the KDJ indicator indicates a potential downward turn, suggesting a cautious approach in the near term [4].

Core Viewpoint - The market's expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have subtly shifted, with a high probability of maintaining rates in June and a growing concern for potential rate cuts in July [1][4]. Group 1: Reasons for Maintaining Interest Rates - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June is as high as 97.8%, reflecting market assessments of the current economic situation and inflation levels [3]. - Although there are signs of economic recovery in the U.S., growth momentum remains insufficient, particularly in consumption and investment sectors [3]. - Current inflation, while rising, is still within the Fed's 2% target range, and the Fed views this increase as "temporary," influenced by supply chain bottlenecks and rising energy prices [3]. Group 2: Possibility and Considerations for Rate Cuts - Despite the high probability of maintaining rates in June, the market's expectation for a 25 basis point cut in July stands at 22%, indicating concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [4][5]. - Economic growth uncertainty, particularly in consumer confidence and corporate investment, suggests that rate cuts could stimulate borrowing and spending [5]. - Global economic slowdown and ongoing trade tensions are impacting the U.S. economy, and rate cuts could enhance competitiveness and mitigate external pressures [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Recent declines in U.S. Treasury yields reflect an increased market expectation for rate cuts, while the dollar's exchange rate has also been influenced by anticipated Fed easing policies [6]. - Investors are adjusting their portfolios in response to changing expectations regarding Fed rate decisions, potentially increasing allocations to bonds and equities for higher returns [7]. - The Fed's future rate decisions will depend on economic data performance and global economic dynamics, necessitating investors to closely monitor these factors for timely strategy adjustments [7].