1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides daily observations and analyses of various commodity futures, including agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals. It presents the current market conditions, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, different commodities show diverse trends due to factors such as supply - demand relationships, macro - economic conditions, and policy influences. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean index fell 0.07% to 1029 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.21% to 281.7 dollars/short ton. Domestic soybean meal is under pressure to decline [16]. - **Important Information**: In September 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, exceeding market expectations [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market is under pressure, and domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment and increasing supply pressure, with a downward - biased outlook [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points for the 05 contract, do a M11 - 1 long spread, and sell call options at high points [17]. Sugar - **Market Condition**: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both declined. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market [18]. - **Important Information**: Brazil's sugar production is increasing, and Pakistan plans to import sugar. Typhoons have affected sugar cane in some areas of China [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global sugar production is increasing, and the price of raw sugar is weak. The domestic sugar market is affected by the external market [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, and wait and see for spreads [20]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Condition**: CBOT soybean oil and BMD palm oil prices showed small changes. The overall oil market is expected to fluctuate [22]. - **Important Information**: Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in October, and the US soybean crushing volume in September was higher than expected [22][25]. - **Logic Analysis**: The palm oil market lacks substantial positive factors, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil markets have different supply - demand situations. The oil market is expected to fluctuate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider going long on dips, do an OI 1 - 5 long spread without chasing high prices, and wait and see for options [26]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Condition**: CBOT corn futures rebounded. Domestic corn prices are weak, but the 01 contract has rebounded [29]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of corn in northern ports and Guangdong ports has changed, and the purchase price in northern ports is relatively weak [30][31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US corn is expected to be weak in the short term, and the domestic corn price is under pressure, but the 01 contract has limited downward space [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 12 - contract corn, and gradually build long positions for the 01, 05, and 07 contracts. Wait and see for spreads and options [31]. Live Pigs - **Market Condition**: Pig prices showed a rebound, but the supply pressure remains [32]. - **Important Information**: Pig prices in different regions have changed, and the prices of piglets and sows have declined [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of live pigs is still high, and the pig price is under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [34]. Peanuts - **Market Condition**: The price of peanuts is stable, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [35]. - **Important Information**: The price of peanut products is stable, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil has changed [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new - season peanuts are affected by rainfall, and the market is stable. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts, wait and see for spreads, and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [37][38]. Eggs - **Market Condition**: Egg prices have stabilized, but the demand has not changed much [38]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of laying hens is high, and the sales volume of eggs has decreased [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of eggs is high, and the demand is general. The egg price is expected to be weak [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions, wait and see for spreads and options [42][44]. Apples - **Market Condition**: The apple price is stable with a slight increase [44]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of apples in cold storage has decreased, and the export and import volumes have changed. The price in different regions is stable [45][46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The excellent - fruit rate is low, and the cost of making futures warrants is high. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short term due to the expected low excellent - fruit rate, wait and see for spreads and options [47]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Condition**: ICE US cotton rose, and domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [49]. - **Important Information**: Xinjiang cotton is in the picking and purchasing season, and the demand for cotton cloth is weak [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic cotton output is high, and the demand is general. The cotton price is expected to be under pressure [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and domestic cotton is expected to be slightly weak. Wait and see for spreads and options [50]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Condition**: The steel market is under pressure, but the price is at a low valuation [52]. - **Important Information**: The environmental protection policy for the steel industry is introduced, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have decreased [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The steel inventory is increasing, and the demand is declining. The steel price is under pressure, but there is some support at the bottom [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate at the bottom, do a long spread on the volume - to - coil difference at low prices, and wait and see for options [53]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Condition**: The coking coal and coke markets are fluctuating [54]. - **Important Information**: The price of Mongolian coking coal is high, and the cost of steel production has increased [54][55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The coking coal supply is stable, and the demand is supported. The market is balanced, and long positions can be lightly built at low points [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate, go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [56]. Iron Ore - **Market Condition**: The iron ore price is declining, and the market sentiment is affected [57]. - **Important Information**: The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the domestic terminal demand is weakening [57][58]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of iron ore is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The price is expected to be weak [58]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium term, do a reverse cash - and - carry spread, and use a circuit - breaker cumulative put option strategy [59]. Ferroalloys - **Market Condition**: Ferroalloys are fluctuating at the bottom [59]. - **Important Information**: The inquiry price of a large steel mill for ferrosilicon has decreased, and the working hours and operating rate of construction machinery have changed [59]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for ferroalloys is under pressure, but the valuation and cost provide support. The price will fluctuate at the bottom [59][60]. - **Trading Strategy**: Fluctuate at the bottom, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [60]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Condition**: Gold and silver prices are strong [62]. - **Important Information**: The US dollar index fell, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates [62]. - **Logic Analysis**: Under the expectation of loose liquidity, precious metals are expected to remain strong [62]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, wait and see for spreads, and buy deep - out - of - the - money call options and take profits at high points [63]. Copper - **Market Condition**: The copper price needs to consolidate in the short term, and the long - term trend remains unchanged [63]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the global refined copper supply is in surplus [65][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect the copper price. The price needs to consolidate in the short term [66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, hold a long cross - market spread, wait and see for options [67]. Alumina - **Market Condition**: The alumina price is weakening [68]. - **Important Information**: Some alumina enterprises are facing production cuts due to factors such as ore shortages and strikes [70][71]. - **Logic Analysis**: The alumina market is in surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell, wait and see for spreads and options [72]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Condition**: The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to be stronger in the medium term [73]. - **Important Information**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has decreased [76]. - **Logic Analysis**: The impact of tariffs on the aluminum price is limited, and the consumption is resilient. The price is expected to strengthen in the medium term [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [77]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Condition**: The price of cast aluminum alloy is affected by short - term macro - emotions, and scrap aluminum prices may be relatively firm [77]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots has changed, and the number of cast aluminum alloy warrants has decreased [77][78]. - **Logic Analysis**: The global aluminum supply - demand is not directly affected, and the scrap aluminum supply is tight. The price is expected to be supported [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long at low points, wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Condition**: The zinc price is affected by multiple factors [81]. - **Important Information**: The domestic zinc inventory is increasing, and the global zinc supply is expected to be in surplus [81][82]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is increasing, and the demand is not improving. The price is under pressure, and the external - strong - internal - weak pattern may continue [82]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell at high points, wait and see for spreads and options [83]. Lead - **Market Condition**: The lead price is at a high level and may fall [86]. - **Important Information**: The global lead supply is expected to be in surplus, and the domestic lead inventory has decreased [86][87]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead market has weak supply and demand, and the supply may increase in the second half of October. The price may fall [87]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell due to the expected increase in supply, wait and see for spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [88]. Nickel - **Market Condition**: The nickel price is under pressure due to inventory accumulation [89]. - **Important Information**: The global refined nickel supply is in surplus, and LME nickel inventory is increasing [91]. - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel market is in surplus, and the price is under pressure [91]. - **Trading Strategy**: Sell a 2511 contract strangle, wait and see for spreads [92]. Stainless Steel - **Market Condition**: The stainless steel price is under pressure [93]. - **Important Information**: The EU's policies may increase the cost of stainless steel imports, and the inventory in the Foshan market has changed [93]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of stainless steel is increasing, but the demand is weak. The price is under pressure [93][96]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will fluctuate weakly, wait and see for spreads [94][96]. Other Metals Industrial Silicon - **Market Condition**: The industrial silicon price is expected to fluctuate within a range [97]. - **Important Information**: There is a project for silica gel desiccant and intermediate water glass [97]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon is affected by rumors of polysilicon production cuts. The price is under short - term pressure but may be supported in the medium term [97]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a full correction in the short term, wait and see for spreads and options [97]. Polysilicon - **Market Condition**: The polysilicon price is expected to be strong [98]. - **Important Information**: The production of polysilicon is increasing, and the demand for silicon wafers is weakening [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand situation is negative for the short - term, but the bottom of the price is being consolidated. The price is expected to break through new highs in the long term [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions, do a 2511, 2512 contract reverse spread, adjust the double - buy strategy, close long put positions, and hold long call options [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Condition**: The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Important Information**: The government has issued a plan for electric vehicle charging facilities [100]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lithium carbonate is uncertain, and the demand provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [100]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long, wait and see for spreads, and sell a 2601 contract strangle [101]. Tin - **Market Condition**: The tin price is declining slightly [102]. - **Important Information**: The trade situation between China and the US is uncertain, and the Fed may cut interest rates [105]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tin market has weak supply and demand, and the demand improvement is limited. The price is affected by the situation in Myanmar [105]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for all trading methods [105].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of stabilizing market expectations to support economic recovery and growth, highlighting the need for effective macroeconomic management and policy predictability [1][3][5]. Economic Performance - Despite facing complex domestic and international challenges, China's economy has maintained stable growth this year, with key economic indicators showing a positive trend [3]. - The article notes that the foundation for economic recovery remains fragile due to insufficient demand and the ongoing transition between old and new growth drivers [3]. Market Expectations - Effective management of market expectations is crucial for economic governance, as decisions by economic entities are heavily influenced by their future expectations [4]. - Weak market expectations are evident, with various factors such as trade tensions and social conditions affecting production and consumption behaviors [4]. Policy Implementation - Timely and precise macroeconomic policies are essential to enhance policy predictability and guide market expectations positively [5]. - The article stresses the importance of addressing market concerns promptly and ensuring the reliability and stability of macroeconomic policies to prevent fluctuations in market expectations [5]. Long-term Planning - The article advocates for strengthening medium- and long-term expectation management through the effective formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which outlines strategic goals for economic and social development [6][7]. - The plan is seen as a critical tool for guiding resource allocation and productivity layout, thereby influencing long-term market expectations [6]. Institutional Environment - A stable and predictable institutional environment is fundamental for enhancing market confidence and expectations [7]. - Recent reforms aimed at promoting fair competition and supporting private enterprises are highlighted as measures to improve the market environment and stimulate economic activity [7]. Communication and Public Perception - The article underscores the need for improved economic communication and public discourse to manage expectations effectively [8]. - It calls for timely responses to public concerns and accurate dissemination of information regarding economic policies to prevent misinterpretations and panic [8].

Core Viewpoint - Expectation management is a crucial aspect of macroeconomic governance and an important tool for effective economic work [1] Group 1: Economic Recovery - To consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, it is essential to focus on both supply-demand balance regulation and expectation management [1] - Improving macro-control effectiveness and boosting social development confidence are key objectives [1] Group 2: Market Expectation Stability - Timely responses to market concerns are necessary to enhance policy predictability [1] - The scientific formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" should be leveraged to strengthen medium- and long-term expectation management [1] - Continuous improvement of the institutional framework is required to create a long-term stable and predictable institutional environment [1] - Enhancing economic publicity and public opinion guidance is vital for stabilizing market expectations [1]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points was widely anticipated, but the market's initial excitement quickly faded, revealing underlying complexities [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Decision - The decision to cut rates was almost unanimous, with only one dissenting voice from newly appointed member Stephen Moore, who advocated for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut, indicating political influences on monetary policy [2] - Chairman Powell's responses during the press conference highlighted the tension between economic data and political pressures, suggesting a need for justification of the Fed's actions [2][3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Initial market enthusiasm following the rate cut was short-lived as investors recognized that the cut did not address existing economic challenges, particularly in the housing market [2][3] - The lack of significant changes in mortgage rates and treasury yields post-rate cut indicated that deeper structural issues in the housing market were not resolved by monetary policy alone [3] Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The rate cut illustrated the limitations of monetary policy as a solution to complex economic issues, such as rising construction costs and labor shortages in the housing sector [3] - The situation reflects a common misconception that single policy tools can resolve multifaceted economic problems, emphasizing the need for comprehensive structural reforms [3][5] Group 4: Political Dynamics - The relationship between the Federal Reserve and political influences has become more pronounced, with President Trump's direct criticisms and demands for more aggressive monetary policy highlighting a shift in how political pressures are exerted on the Fed [4][5] - The transparency of these political interactions has increased market uncertainty, as investors must now consider both economic data and political maneuvering in their analyses [4] Group 5: Global Perspectives - The Federal Reserve's actions have global repercussions, affecting liquidity and capital flows in emerging markets, which can lead to both opportunities and risks [5] - Lessons from the Fed's experience include the importance of addressing structural economic issues, managing market expectations, and maintaining long-term goals amidst short-term pressures [5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the shift in the Federal Reserve's stance reflects a broader trend of market manipulation and expectation management, similar to the behavior observed in the A-share market [1][3] - The article highlights that market movements are often driven by unseen "puppet masters" rather than the apparent news and data, suggesting that retail investors are misled by surface-level information [3][4] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding institutional trading behaviors, which can create opportunities for profit despite market volatility [4][10] Group 2 - The concept of "institutional shaking" is introduced, where institutions deliberately create market fluctuations to accumulate shares, which may appear as random volatility to retail investors [8][11] - The article suggests that recognizing these institutional behaviors can provide insights into market trends and help investors navigate through market turbulence [11][13] - It concludes that both the Federal Reserve's communication and institutional trading practices serve the purpose of managing market expectations, urging investors to look beyond superficial market movements [11][13]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicate a potential shift in risk balance, which may justify adjustments in policy stance, leading to significant market reactions globally [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path but is based on data evaluation and its impact on economic outlook and risk balance, reassuring the market that the Fed is not deviating from its usual methods due to political pressures [2] - His nuanced approach, including the "balanced narrative" acknowledging temporary inflation driven by tariffs and recognizing cracks in the labor market, suggests decisions are based on objective economic data rather than political factors [2] Group 2: Market Reaction and Expectation Management - Despite Powell's cautious tone, the market exhibited great enthusiasm, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies, which may have led to an overreaction following his remarks [3] - Powell's careful framing of his statements suggests he aimed for a "small rise" in market sentiment, but prior suppressed emotions resulted in a significant market surge [3] Group 3: Key Signals for the Future - Powell's speech revealed three key signals: a near certainty of a rate cut in September, with the extent (25 or 50 basis points) dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [4] - The market may have already priced in a "win-win" scenario of easing and growth, but economic data remains a variable, with critical reports on non-farm payrolls and CPI due soon [4] - Political risks persist, as ongoing criticism from Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially increasing volatility in the dollar [4] Group 4: Lack of Market Consensus - Although a September rate cut seems likely, there is a lack of consensus on future market direction, with varied interpretations from Wall Street analysts [5] - Some analysts caution that the market may be overreacting, while others suggest increasing positions in rate cut trades, and some predict multiple rate cuts by 2025, indicating uncertainty ahead [5] - This lack of consensus poses a risk for the market, as future economic data and political conditions remain unpredictable [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes indicate a need for enhanced policy communication to prevent the market from having overly optimistic expectations regarding further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - A committee member emphasized the importance of strengthening policy communication [1] - The discussion reflects concerns about market perceptions and expectations related to interest rate adjustments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, indicating a clear intention to release short-term liquidity in response to market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: PBOC's Actions and Market Impact - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a three-month term, marking the first time the central bank has announced such an operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - The announcement aims to enhance market communication and stabilize market expectations, with the bank's willingness to release liquidity increasing as speculative demand in the bond market declines [1][2]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond futures trading volume has significantly decreased, reflecting a reduced willingness to speculate on long-term interest rates [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Pressure and Seasonal Factors - June faces significant liquidity pressure due to the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 200 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), along with 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing, which is a historical monthly high [2]. - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for credit issuance, and the government is expected to accelerate the use of funds for debt replacement, further exacerbating liquidity fluctuations [2]. - The PBOC's actions are expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the funding environment, as indicated by the decline in the 7-day repo rate to around 1.5%, closer to the current policy rate of 1.4% [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The PBOC's proactive approach in announcing reverse repurchase operations enhances the transparency of monetary policy and is likely to support stock market valuations [2]. - The continuous upgrade in the PBOC's expectation management is expected to foster a more favorable risk appetite in the capital markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current inflation situation is favorable, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, with no immediate need to change rates [1][10]. Inflation Situation and Rate Adjustment - The potential inflation outlook is positive, indicating stable price levels and a healthy economic trajectory, which provides the Federal Reserve with more policy flexibility [3]. - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush into interest rate adjustments, as the costs of waiting are relatively low, reflecting a balanced approach to economic growth and inflation risks [4]. Cautious Attitude Towards Rate Cuts - There is uncertainty regarding rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging that in some cases, cutting rates this year may be appropriate, while in others, it may not be [5]. - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on economic data and market changes, rather than committing to a specific interest rate path [5]. Consideration of Dual Mandate - The Federal Reserve must consider the distance between its dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment, especially when these goals conflict [6]. - Balancing these two objectives is crucial in the decision-making process, highlighting the importance of coordination between them [6]. Flexibility in Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is prepared to act swiftly if the situation warrants, demonstrating its adaptability and responsiveness to economic developments [7]. - Close monitoring of economic data and market dynamics will guide timely policy adjustments to ensure stability and sustainable growth [7]. Management of Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's communication reflects an intention to manage market expectations by emphasizing the flexibility and uncertainty of policy adjustments [8]. - This approach aims to stabilize market confidence and promote smooth economic operations [8].