表面的风平浪静，实则暗流涌动：解析美联储的25个基点 此次美联储将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，这本是市场早已普遍预期的"例行公事"。然而，剥开平静的 表面，其中的细节却暗藏玄机。 其一，几乎全票通过，却现"一枝独秀"的反对声音。 在委员会的投票环节，绝大多数成员都投下了赞 成票，唯独新晋的特朗普任命委员斯蒂芬·米兰，这位"初来乍到"的成员，一上来便提出异议，认为应 直接降息50个基点。这一看似技术层面的分歧，实则折射出深层的政治博弈。特朗普显然希望美联储采 取更为激进的货币政策，并试图通过人事任命来施加影响。这种以政治力量介入货币政策的做法，虽然 并非史无前例，但特朗普的直接与公开，无疑将其推向了新的高度。 其二，鲍威尔的"太极"艺术，回应耐人寻味。 在新闻发布会上，面对记者抛出的尖锐问题，鲍威尔的 回应显得尤为"艺术"。他一方面强调决策是基于经济数据，另一方面又指出通胀尚未达到目标。言外之 意，美联储并非迫于政治压力，而是纯粹遵循经济规律。然而，这种刻意的强调本身就暴露了问题的本 质——如果真的没有政治压力，为何需要如此卖力地辩解？ 潮起潮落，美联储降息背后的暗流涌动 生活中，我们时常会经历这种情形：一个原 ...

一、美联储的"变脸"与A股的"障眼法" 阿尔贝托·穆萨莱姆的突然转向，让整个华尔街都坐不住了。这位曾经最坚定的ying派，如今却在为降息铺路。看着新闻里那些西装革履的官员们侃侃而 谈，我不禁想起咱们大A股市场里每天都在上演的"木偶戏"。 穆萨莱姆对就业市场的担忧不无道理，但真正让我感兴趣的是这种"态度转变"背后的逻辑。就像咱们A股市场，今天一个利好，明天一个利空，散户们被耍 得团团转。但你知道吗？这些消息面不过是"木偶"，真正操控市场的是那些看不见的"牵线人"。 我观察市场这么多年，发现一个铁律：决定股价走势的是交易行为而不是涨跌。政策消息、业绩分红、资金流向，这些都是摆在明面上的东西，目的是让散 户相信自己的眼睛。就像美联储官员的表态，你以为他们是在为经济担忧？不，他们是在为市场预期管理。 二、震荡市中的"机构密码" 当散户忙着问"前路漫漫何时能涨"时，机构已经在撸起袖子加油干了。重要的不是到哪里，而是看清楚机构在做什么。机构要想实现目标，必须通过反复震 仓来甩掉跟风盘，制造捡筹码的机会。在旁人看来只是反复震荡，但从交易行为去看就是另一回事了。 看这只股票，从高位调整后一直反复震荡。按常理，这种股票谁愿意折 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks indicate a potential shift in risk balance, which may justify adjustments in policy stance, leading to significant market reactions globally [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Flexibility - Powell emphasized that monetary policy is not on a preset path but is based on data evaluation and its impact on economic outlook and risk balance, reassuring the market that the Fed is not deviating from its usual methods due to political pressures [2] - His nuanced approach, including the "balanced narrative" acknowledging temporary inflation driven by tariffs and recognizing cracks in the labor market, suggests decisions are based on objective economic data rather than political factors [2] Group 2: Market Reaction and Expectation Management - Despite Powell's cautious tone, the market exhibited great enthusiasm, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies, which may have led to an overreaction following his remarks [3] - Powell's careful framing of his statements suggests he aimed for a "small rise" in market sentiment, but prior suppressed emotions resulted in a significant market surge [3] Group 3: Key Signals for the Future - Powell's speech revealed three key signals: a near certainty of a rate cut in September, with the extent (25 or 50 basis points) dependent on upcoming employment and inflation data [4] - The market may have already priced in a "win-win" scenario of easing and growth, but economic data remains a variable, with critical reports on non-farm payrolls and CPI due soon [4] - Political risks persist, as ongoing criticism from Trump may raise concerns about the Fed's independence, potentially increasing volatility in the dollar [4] Group 4: Lack of Market Consensus - Although a September rate cut seems likely, there is a lack of consensus on future market direction, with varied interpretations from Wall Street analysts [5] - Some analysts caution that the market may be overreacting, while others suggest increasing positions in rate cut trades, and some predict multiple rate cuts by 2025, indicating uncertainty ahead [5] - This lack of consensus poses a risk for the market, as future economic data and political conditions remain unpredictable [5]

韩国央行会议纪要：一名委员表示，应加强政策沟通，以防止市场对进一步降息抱有过高预期。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a 1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, indicating a clear intention to release short-term liquidity in response to market conditions [1][2]. Group 1: PBOC's Actions and Market Impact - On June 6, the PBOC will conduct a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1 trillion yuan with a three-month term, marking the first time the central bank has announced such an operation at the beginning of the month [1]. - The announcement aims to enhance market communication and stabilize market expectations, with the bank's willingness to release liquidity increasing as speculative demand in the bond market declines [1][2]. - The 10-year and 30-year government bond futures trading volume has significantly decreased, reflecting a reduced willingness to speculate on long-term interest rates [1]. Group 2: Liquidity Pressure and Seasonal Factors - June faces significant liquidity pressure due to the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos and 200 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), along with 4.2 trillion yuan in interbank certificates maturing, which is a historical monthly high [2]. - The second quarter is traditionally a peak season for credit issuance, and the government is expected to accelerate the use of funds for debt replacement, further exacerbating liquidity fluctuations [2]. - The PBOC's actions are expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the funding environment, as indicated by the decline in the 7-day repo rate to around 1.5%, closer to the current policy rate of 1.4% [2]. Group 3: Market Expectations and Future Outlook - The PBOC's proactive approach in announcing reverse repurchase operations enhances the transparency of monetary policy and is likely to support stock market valuations [2]. - The continuous upgrade in the PBOC's expectation management is expected to foster a more favorable risk appetite in the capital markets [2].

Core Viewpoint - The current inflation situation is favorable, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, with no immediate need to change rates [1][10]. Inflation Situation and Rate Adjustment - The potential inflation outlook is positive, indicating stable price levels and a healthy economic trajectory, which provides the Federal Reserve with more policy flexibility [3]. - The Federal Reserve does not need to rush into interest rate adjustments, as the costs of waiting are relatively low, reflecting a balanced approach to economic growth and inflation risks [4]. Cautious Attitude Towards Rate Cuts - There is uncertainty regarding rate cuts, with the Federal Reserve acknowledging that in some cases, cutting rates this year may be appropriate, while in others, it may not be [5]. - The Federal Reserve emphasizes the need for flexibility in policy adjustments based on economic data and market changes, rather than committing to a specific interest rate path [5]. Consideration of Dual Mandate - The Federal Reserve must consider the distance between its dual mandates of price stability and maximum employment, especially when these goals conflict [6]. - Balancing these two objectives is crucial in the decision-making process, highlighting the importance of coordination between them [6]. Flexibility in Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is prepared to act swiftly if the situation warrants, demonstrating its adaptability and responsiveness to economic developments [7]. - Close monitoring of economic data and market dynamics will guide timely policy adjustments to ensure stability and sustainable growth [7]. Management of Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's communication reflects an intention to manage market expectations by emphasizing the flexibility and uncertainty of policy adjustments [8]. - This approach aims to stabilize market confidence and promote smooth economic operations [8].