美联储上周暗示未来降息步伐将放缓，而市场则预计明年至少降息两次，两者存在分歧。 若最新数据表现不佳，"软着陆"叙事或难推动风险资产明显上涨；反之，若数据强劲，可能引发鹰派政 策担忧，推高债券收益率，冲击成长型股票等风险资产。 摘要今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金在4286美元附近震荡运行，截至发稿报4287.30美元/盎 司，日内下跌0.40%。盘中最高触及4317.69美元/盎司，最低下探至4279.99美元/盎司，波幅约38美元。 整体走势显示，短线进入横盘整理阶段，多空力量相对均衡，暂未形成明确单边方向。 今日周二(12月16日)亚盘时段，现货黄金在4286美元附近震荡运行，截至发稿报4287.30美元/盎司，日 内下跌0.40%。盘中最高触及4317.69美元/盎司，最低下探至4279.99美元/盎司，波幅约38美元。整体走 势显示，短线进入横盘整理阶段，多空力量相对均衡，暂未形成明确单边方向。 市场密切关注本周即将公布的美国就业与通胀数据，这被视为对近期宏观预期的一次关键检验。 与此同时，非农报告备受关注，预计新增就业岗位仅约5万个，增速显著放缓。该报告不仅影响市场短 期波动，也将成为判断 ...

就业数据对市场判断通胀黏性和货币政策走向具有直接影响。非农就业数据通常通过"美元指数—美债 收益率—实际利率"这一传导链条来影响黄金价格。若就业数据及工资增速显著超出预期，可能会增强 市场的高利率预期，进而推升美元指数和实际利率，对黄金价格构成阶段性压制。相反，如果就业数据 和工资增速不佳，那么"就业降温"的叙事就可能促使市场重新评估降息预期，从而利好黄金。当然，也 需要警惕数据集中发布可能引发的市场短线波动放大。 对于黄金后市，知名人士认为在降息周期已得到确认且市场流动性宽松的背景下，黄金的中期"定价 锚"更倾向于实际利率下行和避险需求上升。从边际变化来看，美联储降息节奏与市场定价之间仍存在 分歧。如果后续数据显示出"降息放缓甚至暂停"的迹象，那么金价可能会出现深度回调。 【最新伦敦金行情解析】 摘要今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月 下旬后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短暂调整，整体仍维持震荡上行的趋势。 今日周一(12月15日)亚盘时段，黄金价格呈现出强劲的上涨态势，屡创历史新高。然而，进入10月下旬 后，金价出现了一定程度的回调，但经过短 ...

美联储主席争夺战进入白热化阶段，特朗普本周将面试前理事沃什，热门人选哈塞特的提名悬念陡增。同时，美 官员讨论了让哈塞特担任（比正常任期）更短的美联储主席，或为贝森特未来接掌美联储铺路。 美联储下一任主席的遴选正进入终局。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特目前处于领先位置，但特朗普决定 启动最后一轮面试，表明最终人选远未"板上钉钉"。 今日，据英国《金融时报》援引三名美国政府高级官员透露，特朗普与财政部长贝森特计划于本周三会见前美 联储理事沃什。此举标志着为寻找现任主席鲍威尔继任者的最后一轮面试正式拉开帷幕。 这一最新进展表明，哈塞特的提名并非十拿九稳。除哈塞特和沃什外，最终候选人名单还包括另外两名来自美 联储理事沃勒、鲍曼以及贝莱德高管里克·里德等人中的入围者。最终决定预计将在明年1月初宣布。 贝森特仍有可能接管美联储 财政部长贝森特在此次遴选中扮演着关键角色。据官员称，他向白宫提交了一份包含四人姓名的名单，哈塞特 和沃什均在其中。尽管特朗普曾多次公开表示希望贝森特担任美联储主席，但贝森特本人已表态无意此职。 然而，若哈塞特的任期缩短，则可能为贝森特在特朗普第二个任期的晚些时候接掌美联储铺平道路。这一潜在 安排 ...

美联储下一任主席的遴选正进入终局。尽管白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特目前处于领先位置，但特朗 普决定启动最后一轮面试，表明最终人选远未"板上钉钉"。 今日，据英国《金融时报》援引三名美国政府高级官员透露，特朗普与财政部长贝森特计划于本周三会 见前美联储理事沃什。此举标志着为寻找现任主席鲍威尔继任者的最后一轮面试正式拉开帷幕。 这一最新进展表明，哈塞特的提名并非十拿九稳。除哈塞特和沃什外，最终候选人名单还包括另外两名 来自美联储理事沃勒、鲍曼以及贝莱德高管里克·里德等人中的入围者。最终决定预计将在明年1月初宣 布。 这一人事变动的核心影响在于未来的货币政策走向。部分华尔街投资者已表达担忧，认为与总统关系密 切的哈塞特可能会过于激进地降息，从而给市场带来潜在风险。 哈塞特领先，但任期或存变数 在近几周的角逐中，哈塞特已成为接替鲍威尔的热门人选。然而，特朗普政府官员们提出一个想法，让 哈塞特担任（比正常任期）更短的美联储主席。美联储主席的常规任期为四年，可连任。 另有两位知情人士称，哈塞特本人曾向贝森特提议，由他接替鲍威尔在美联储理事会的席位，该席位任 期至2028年1月结束。这种安排的灵活性，为未来的人事布局留下了 ...

Group 1 - COMEX gold inventory recorded at 1130.83 tons on November 28, a decrease of 6.25 tons from the previous trading day [1][2] - COMEX gold price closed at $4256.40 per ounce on November 28, an increase of 1.59%, with an intraday high of $4263.10 and a low of $4174.60 [1][2] Group 2 - Market concerns about policy continuity arise as Trump announces plans to revoke all documents signed by former President Biden [2] - Geopolitical tensions escalate as the U.S. closes Venezuelan airspace and conducts military maneuvers, increasing risk aversion in the market [2] - Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Ukraine show progress but still have unresolved issues, maintaining high geopolitical risk premiums [2]

Group 1 - Trump's potential removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could allow him to control four out of seven board seats, increasing his influence over the Fed [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the Trump administration is conducting a comprehensive personnel "cleaning" of the Federal Reserve, with unprecedented intervention methods [2][3] - If successful, Trump's actions could lead to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making dynamics, especially with the upcoming retirement of Chairman Powell [3][4] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction, particularly ahead of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [6][7] - There is a substantial bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with options contracts indicating a potential profit of up to $100 million if the Fed follows through [6][7] - Many analysts warn that Powell's upcoming remarks may contradict aggressive rate cut expectations, potentially leading to market volatility [7][8]

Market Overview - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, with prices fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,350, as market participants cautiously observe geopolitical developments, particularly the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin [1] - Despite a slight increase in gold prices on Friday, the overall trend for the week shows a decline of 1.7% [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold opened at $3,404.5 and fell to a low of around $3,330, closing with a bearish weekly candle. The TRIX trend indicator shows a death cross, and the MACD indicator also indicates a bearish trend with increasing selling momentum [3] - Daily analysis shows gold trading within a narrow range of $3,330 to $3,348, with a closing price of $3,335.5 on Friday, forming a doji candlestick pattern. The MACD indicator also reflects increasing bearish momentum [3] Trading Recommendations - For Monday, it is suggested to consider short positions around $3,351 to $3,354, with a stop loss at $3,359 and a target profit range of $3,330 to $3,320 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits indicates a trend of residents shifting their savings towards financial products, influenced by a recovering capital market and declining interest rates [1][2][6]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [2]. - The total increase in non-bank deposits from January to July reached 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts attribute the shift from household deposits to non-bank deposits to the recent stock market rally and the end of the mid-year bank assessment period [2][4]. Group 2: Money Supply and Liquidity - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% in July, surpassing market expectations of 8.3% [2]. - M1 growth rate rose to 5.6%, a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating enhanced liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to -3.2% suggests an increase in the liquidity of funds, as residents and businesses convert time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Outlook - There is a strong expectation that capital markets will become a significant destination for the outflow of household deposits, supported by a large volume of maturing deposits [4][5]. - By 2025, approximately 105 trillion yuan of time deposits will mature, which could lead to substantial liquidity impacts if these funds flow into asset markets [5]. - The current environment of declining deposit attractiveness and ongoing asset scarcity is expected to drive more funds into the capital market, potentially increasing trading activity and stock price elasticity [6]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Signals - Despite recent market optimism, July's financial data revealed a slowdown in demand, with new credit showing a negative growth for the first time in 20 years [7]. - The implementation of fiscal subsidy policies is expected to support the economy without necessitating further monetary easing [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the economic recovery may be slow, the increase in M1 growth and the activation of deposits are positive signals for future economic momentum [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits in July reflects a trend of residents shifting their savings towards financial products, influenced by the recent bullish stock market and declining interest rates [1][2][5]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 0.8 trillion yuan [2]. - From January to July, non-bank deposits cumulatively increased by 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in non-bank deposits is driven by the end of the mid-year bank assessment period and the recent rise in the stock market, leading to a large-scale return of household savings to financial products [2][5]. Group 2: Money Supply and Liquidity - The growth rate of M2 (broad money) in July increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8%, exceeding market expectations of 8.3%, while M1 (narrow money) growth rate rose to 5.6%, marking a significant rebound over three consecutive months [2]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to -3.2% indicates enhanced liquidity, suggesting that households and businesses are converting time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Expectations - There is a strong market expectation that capital markets will become a significant outlet for household deposits, with historical trends showing that each bull market is accompanied by a migration of bank deposits to capital markets [4][5]. - The estimated maturity of fixed-term deposits is substantial, with approximately 105 trillion yuan maturing by 2025 and 66 trillion yuan thereafter, which could lead to significant liquidity impacts if these funds flow into asset markets [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite recent market optimism, July's financial data indicates slow recovery in demand, with new credit showing a negative growth for the first time in 20 years, highlighting the core contradiction in the current economic environment [7]. - The implementation of fiscal subsidy policies is expected to reduce the need for aggressive monetary easing, with analysts suggesting that the probability of interest rate cuts may decrease due to the effectiveness of targeted fiscal measures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for rate cuts in July, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Fed officials [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Recent statements from Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, initially raised expectations for a rate cut in July, but subsequent comments from Powell and others tempered these expectations [1][6]. - The market had priced in two rate cuts for the year, but officials indicated a cautious approach, suggesting that more data is needed before making any decisions [6][9]. Economic Indicators and Fed Officials' Statements - Powell noted that while inflation trends are downward, uncertainties from tariffs complicate the decision-making process, indicating no immediate need for policy adjustments [6][7]. - Williams projected a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth to around 1% and an increase in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end, while also highlighting the inflationary pressures from tariffs [6][8]. - Other officials, including Daly and Collins, echoed the sentiment of waiting for clearer signals before considering rate adjustments, emphasizing the current favorable position of monetary policy [7][9]. Potential Succession of Fed Chair Powell - There are reports that Trump is considering nominees to succeed Powell, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the future direction of monetary policy [3][11]. - The potential candidates include Waller, Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, with Waller being seen as a frontrunner due to his established relationships and policy experience [12]. - The market is reacting to the possibility of a more dovish "shadow chair" influencing aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar index [12][13]. Conclusion on Fed's Independence - Despite concerns about Trump's influence, experts assert that the Fed's decision-making process involves a collective discussion among FOMC members, ensuring that no single individual can unilaterally dictate policy [13].