Group 1 - Trump's potential removal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could allow him to control four out of seven board seats, increasing his influence over the Fed [1][2][3] - Analysts suggest that the Trump administration is conducting a comprehensive personnel "cleaning" of the Federal Reserve, with unprecedented intervention methods [2][3] - If successful, Trump's actions could lead to a significant shift in the Federal Reserve's decision-making dynamics, especially with the upcoming retirement of Chairman Powell [3][4] Group 2 - Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction, particularly ahead of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference [6][7] - There is a substantial bet on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with options contracts indicating a potential profit of up to $100 million if the Fed follows through [6][7] - Many analysts warn that Powell's upcoming remarks may contradict aggressive rate cut expectations, potentially leading to market volatility [7][8]

Market Overview - The gold market is currently in a state of tension, with prices fluctuating between $3,330 and $3,350, as market participants cautiously observe geopolitical developments, particularly the summit between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin [1] - Despite a slight increase in gold prices on Friday, the overall trend for the week shows a decline of 1.7% [1] Technical Analysis - Weekly analysis indicates that gold opened at $3,404.5 and fell to a low of around $3,330, closing with a bearish weekly candle. The TRIX trend indicator shows a death cross, and the MACD indicator also indicates a bearish trend with increasing selling momentum [3] - Daily analysis shows gold trading within a narrow range of $3,330 to $3,348, with a closing price of $3,335.5 on Friday, forming a doji candlestick pattern. The MACD indicator also reflects increasing bearish momentum [3] Trading Recommendations - For Monday, it is suggested to consider short positions around $3,351 to $3,354, with a stop loss at $3,359 and a target profit range of $3,330 to $3,320 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits indicates a trend of residents shifting their savings towards financial products, influenced by a recovering capital market and declining interest rates [1][2][6]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [2]. - The total increase in non-bank deposits from January to July reached 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts attribute the shift from household deposits to non-bank deposits to the recent stock market rally and the end of the mid-year bank assessment period [2][4]. Group 2: Money Supply and Liquidity - The M2 growth rate increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% in July, surpassing market expectations of 8.3% [2]. - M1 growth rate rose to 5.6%, a 1.0 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating enhanced liquidity in the market [2][3]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 gap to -3.2% suggests an increase in the liquidity of funds, as residents and businesses convert time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Outlook - There is a strong expectation that capital markets will become a significant destination for the outflow of household deposits, supported by a large volume of maturing deposits [4][5]. - By 2025, approximately 105 trillion yuan of time deposits will mature, which could lead to substantial liquidity impacts if these funds flow into asset markets [5]. - The current environment of declining deposit attractiveness and ongoing asset scarcity is expected to drive more funds into the capital market, potentially increasing trading activity and stock price elasticity [6]. Group 4: Monetary Policy and Economic Signals - Despite recent market optimism, July's financial data revealed a slowdown in demand, with new credit showing a negative growth for the first time in 20 years [7]. - The implementation of fiscal subsidy policies is expected to support the economy without necessitating further monetary easing [8]. - Analysts suggest that while the economic recovery may be slow, the increase in M1 growth and the activation of deposits are positive signals for future economic momentum [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in non-bank deposits in July reflects a trend of residents shifting their savings towards financial products, influenced by the recent bullish stock market and declining interest rates [1][2][5]. Group 1: Non-Bank Deposits - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.39 trillion yuan, while household deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 0.8 trillion yuan [2]. - From January to July, non-bank deposits cumulatively increased by 4.69 trillion yuan, which is 1.73 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - Analysts suggest that the increase in non-bank deposits is driven by the end of the mid-year bank assessment period and the recent rise in the stock market, leading to a large-scale return of household savings to financial products [2][5]. Group 2: Money Supply and Liquidity - The growth rate of M2 (broad money) in July increased by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8%, exceeding market expectations of 8.3%, while M1 (narrow money) growth rate rose to 5.6%, marking a significant rebound over three consecutive months [2]. - The narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to -3.2% indicates enhanced liquidity, suggesting that households and businesses are converting time deposits into demand deposits for consumption or investment [3]. Group 3: Capital Market Expectations - There is a strong market expectation that capital markets will become a significant outlet for household deposits, with historical trends showing that each bull market is accompanied by a migration of bank deposits to capital markets [4][5]. - The estimated maturity of fixed-term deposits is substantial, with approximately 105 trillion yuan maturing by 2025 and 66 trillion yuan thereafter, which could lead to significant liquidity impacts if these funds flow into asset markets [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook - Despite recent market optimism, July's financial data indicates slow recovery in demand, with new credit showing a negative growth for the first time in 20 years, highlighting the core contradiction in the current economic environment [7]. - The implementation of fiscal subsidy policies is expected to reduce the need for aggressive monetary easing, with analysts suggesting that the probability of interest rate cuts may decrease due to the effectiveness of targeted fiscal measures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, particularly the potential for rate cuts in July, influenced by various economic indicators and statements from Fed officials [1][6][10]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Rate Cut Expectations - Recent statements from Fed officials, including Waller and Bowman, initially raised expectations for a rate cut in July, but subsequent comments from Powell and others tempered these expectations [1][6]. - The market had priced in two rate cuts for the year, but officials indicated a cautious approach, suggesting that more data is needed before making any decisions [6][9]. Economic Indicators and Fed Officials' Statements - Powell noted that while inflation trends are downward, uncertainties from tariffs complicate the decision-making process, indicating no immediate need for policy adjustments [6][7]. - Williams projected a significant slowdown in U.S. economic growth to around 1% and an increase in unemployment to 4.5% by year-end, while also highlighting the inflationary pressures from tariffs [6][8]. - Other officials, including Daly and Collins, echoed the sentiment of waiting for clearer signals before considering rate adjustments, emphasizing the current favorable position of monetary policy [7][9]. Potential Succession of Fed Chair Powell - There are reports that Trump is considering nominees to succeed Powell, which has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed and the future direction of monetary policy [3][11]. - The potential candidates include Waller, Warsh, Hassett, and Bessent, with Waller being seen as a frontrunner due to his established relationships and policy experience [12]. - The market is reacting to the possibility of a more dovish "shadow chair" influencing aggressive rate cuts, leading to a decline in the dollar index [12][13]. Conclusion on Fed's Independence - Despite concerns about Trump's influence, experts assert that the Fed's decision-making process involves a collective discussion among FOMC members, ensuring that no single individual can unilaterally dictate policy [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the slowdown in the labor market will guide the direction of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Briden, emphasizes the importance of labor market conditions in shaping future monetary policy decisions [1]