宏观经济研究 2025.12.28 图说中国宏观周报 分行业看贸易盈余 SAC 执证编号：S0080520110001 SFC CE Ref：BRF442 yuchi.zheng@cicc.com.cn SAC 执证编号：S0080520080004 SFC CE Ref：BRG436 wenjing.huang@cicc.com.cn 特别观察 中国商品贸易顺差继续上升，但服务贸易持续逆差，截至今年 9 月，滚动 12 个月的经常账户与 GDP 之比低于 3.5% ，外部失衡不算非常显著。金融周期下行推升贸易顺差，这是因为，社会资源配置往 高效率的高端制造业领域倾斜，技术进步提速，叠加房地产调整导致非贸易品价格下降，降低贸易品 的中间投入成本，促进了出口。另一方面，私人部门去杠杆抑制了需求，从而使得进口放缓，而制造 业升级也使得部分行业国产化程度上升，带动进口下降。具体分行业情况见下。 出口上升、进口下降，推动商品贸易顺差上升。2025 年 1-11 月中国海关口径商品贸易顺差为 10758 亿美元，创历史新高，同比增速为 21%。出口方面，2025 年 1-11 月金额为 34147 亿美元，同比上升 1 ...

中金研究 中国商品贸易顺差继续上升，但服务贸易持续逆差，截至今年9月，滚动12个月的经常账户与GDP之比低于3.5%，外部失衡不算非常显著。金融周期下 行推升贸易顺差，这是因为，社会资源配置往高效率的高端制造业领域倾斜，技术进步提速，叠加房地产调整导致非贸易品价格下降，降低贸易品的 中间投入成本，促进了出口。另一方面，私人部门去杠杆抑制了需求，从而使得进口放缓，而制造业升级也使得部分行业国产化程度上升，带动进口 下降。具体分行业情况见下。 点击小程序查看报告原文 出口上升、进口下降，推动商品贸易顺差上升。 2025年1-11月中国海关口径商品贸易顺差为10758亿美元，创历史新高，同比增速为21%。出口方面， 2025年1-11月金额为34147亿美元，同比上升1746亿美元，同比增速为5.4%；进口方面，2025年1-11月金额为23388亿美元，同比下降130亿美元，同比增 速为-0.6%。两者共同作用下，推动商品贸易顺差上升。而从截至2025年9月的滚动12个月的贸易顺差、出口和进口占GDP比重来看，2025年9月为6.0%， 同比上升1.3个百分点，其中出口上升贡献0.6个百分点，进口下降贡献0.7个 ...

新华财经北京12月9日电丹麦10月经季节性调整的贸易盈余收窄至281亿丹麦克朗，较9月经上修后的341 亿丹麦克朗明显回落。同期，经常账户盈余亦由9月的389亿丹麦克朗降至329亿丹麦克朗，反映外部经 济环境对丹麦国际收支构成短期压力。 具体来看，10月丹麦出口总额环比下降2.6%，至1783亿丹麦克朗。其中，商品出口大幅下滑3.8%，服 务出口亦下降0.9%。进口方面则呈现相反走势，环比增长0.8%至1502亿丹麦克朗，主要受商品进口增 长1.9%推动，服务进口则微降0.5%。 在经常账户构成中，商品账户盈余由9月的317亿丹麦克朗缩减至260亿丹麦克朗，主因即为出口下降与 进口上升的双重作用。服务账户盈余小幅收窄至21亿丹麦克朗（前值24亿丹麦克朗）。初次收入盈余从 82亿丹麦克朗略降至80亿丹麦克朗，二次收入赤字则由34亿丹麦克朗收窄至32亿丹麦克朗。 尽管10月单月数据走弱，2025年前十个月累计表现仍显韧性。贸易账户累计盈余达2,727亿丹麦克朗， 高于2024年同期的2,649亿丹麦克朗；但经常账户累计盈余为3,053亿丹麦克朗，略低于去年同期的3,070 亿丹麦克朗。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分 ...

Group 1 - The trade surplus of Côte d'Ivoire in Q1 2025 is approximately 1.5 trillion West African francs (about 25.5 billion USD), an increase of 423 billion West African francs (about 7.4 billion USD) compared to the same period last year, indicating a positive trend in foreign trade [1] - Agricultural exports are mixed, with coffee and cocoa exports reduced due to adverse weather conditions, while cashew production has recovered due to new plant inspection measures [1] - The secondary sector, driven by mining and manufacturing, saw industrial output grow by 3.7% in the first three months [1] Group 2 - The tertiary sector significantly contributed to foreign trade growth, with shipping volume increasing by 18.2% and overall foreign trade growing by 10% [1]

Core Insights - New Zealand reported a trade surplus of 142 million NZD in June, while the 12-month trade deficit reached 4.366 billion NZD [1] - Exports in June totaled 6.63 billion NZD, while imports were 6.49 billion NZD [1]

Core Insights - Brazil's trade surplus narrowed to $5.889 billion in June, below the expected $6.200 billion [1] - Exports in June decreased to $29.147 billion, exceeding the forecast of $28.550 billion [1] - Imports rose to $23.257 billion in June, higher than the anticipated $22.600 billion [1]

Group 1 - Argentina's unemployment rate for the first quarter is 7.9% [1] Group 2 - In May, Argentina reported a trade surplus of $608 million, which was below the expected surplus of $1.05 billion [2] - Exports in May totaled $7.095 billion, while imports were $6.488 billion [2]

Core Insights - In February, EU exports to the US surged by 22.4% year-on-year, reaching a total of 51.8 billion euros, marking the highest export growth rate in 13 months [1] - Imports from the US increased by 2.4% year-on-year, totaling 28.2 billion euros [1] - The EU recorded a trade surplus of 23 billion euros in February, a significant improvement from a deficit of 5.6 billion euros in January [1] Trade Dynamics - The increase in EU exports to the US indicates a strong demand for European goods, potentially driven by favorable economic conditions or shifts in consumer preferences [1] - The modest growth in imports from the US suggests a more stable trade relationship, despite ongoing trade tensions and threats of tariffs from the US administration [1] - The overall trade balance improvement for the EU reflects a positive shift in trade dynamics, which could influence future trade policies and negotiations [1]