Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the banking sector in 2026 [5] Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to return to fundamental narratives in 2026, supported by policy financial tools and resilient asset expansion. The sector is still in a deposit repricing cycle, which is likely to stabilize net interest margins. Structural risks are anticipated to be supported by policy measures [3][32] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1. High-quality small and medium-sized banks with confirmed fundamentals, including Nanjing Bank (601009, Buy), Ningbo Bank (002142, Buy), and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077, Buy) 2. State-owned large banks with stable fundamentals and good defensive value, including Bank of Communications (601328, Not Rated) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398, Not Rated) [3][32] Summary by Sections Impact of Corporate Foreign Exchange Settlement on Interbank Liquidity - Corporate foreign exchange settlement has increased due to the continuous appreciation of the RMB, with a record high of USD 99.9 billion in December 2025. The strong RMB trend is expected to maintain high settlement levels throughout 2026 [8][11] - The settlement process involves two stages: 1. Corporates settle with commercial banks, leading to a decrease in foreign currency deposits and a corresponding decrease in excess reserves. This results in an increase in RMB deposits and a need for banks to match more statutory reserves, which may reduce excess reserves [10][13] 2. If commercial banks settle with the central bank, it results in a decrease in foreign currency assets and an increase in excess reserves, thereby injecting liquidity into the market [10][13] Current Liquidity Conditions - Current liquidity is relatively loose, supported by the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity and stable growth in deposits. Concerns about deposit disintermediation have not materialized, and the overall disintermediation pressure remains moderate [26][32] - The central bank has net injected CNY 1 trillion in medium- and long-term funds through various operations, indicating a proactive approach to liquidity management [15][32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent market perspective suggests that the appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlement by enterprises could lead to bank balance sheet expansion, thereby aiding interbank liquidity. However, the reality is that while the RMB appreciates and enterprises increase settlement, the central bank does not purchase foreign exchange, which may tighten interbank liquidity instead [1][6]. Group 1: Impact of RMB Appreciation on Interbank Liquidity - The appreciation of the RMB and increased foreign exchange settlement does not automatically translate to an increase in base currency supply, as the central bank's foreign exchange reserves have not increased despite a significant surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements [2][8]. - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus reached a historical high of 999 billion USD, with the settlement rate rising by 7 percentage points to 69%, indicating strong market sentiment towards the RMB [7][9]. - The process of foreign exchange settlement involves converting domestic RMB assets into foreign currency assets, which consumes internal RMB reserves, thus not necessarily leading to liquidity expansion [10]. Group 2: Central Bank's Role in Liquidity Management - The key factor for whether interbank liquidity will tighten alongside RMB appreciation in 2026 lies in the central bank's willingness to increase base currency supply through various measures such as reverse repos, MLF, and bond purchases [4][11]. - The central bank's actions to maintain liquidity are crucial for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and supporting economic growth, especially in light of government bond issuance [11][12]. - The central bank's ability to smooth out funding fluctuations has been enhanced, and it is expected to continue providing liquidity support, which may keep interbank rates low [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The appreciation of the RMB and increased corporate foreign exchange settlement may lead to a tightening pressure on inter - bank liquidity if the central bank does not purchase foreign exchange and inject base money. However, whether inter - bank funds will tighten in 2026 depends on whether the central bank actively increases the supply of base money [4][6]. - The surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales does not necessarily translate into an increase in the central bank's foreign exchange holdings on its balance sheet, nor does it equal an increase in base money supply. The excess foreign exchange positions from the surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales remain on commercial banks' balance sheets [4][8]. - The expansion of a bank's balance sheet due to foreign exchange settlement does not simply mean loose liquidity. Without an increase in base money, an increase in deposits requires more legal reserves, leading to a decrease in excess reserves [4][14]. - The central bank may need to maintain loose inter - bank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate, support economic growth, and cooperate with fiscal bond issuance. Although there are flaws in the reasoning that RMB appreciation and increased corporate foreign exchange settlement help loosen inter - bank liquidity, the conclusion may be correct [4][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. How RMB Appreciation and Foreign Exchange Settlement Affect Inter - bank Liquidity - **1.1 Bank Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Surplus Has Not Converted into Incremental Base Money** - In December 2025, the on - shore RMB exchange rate broke through 7, and the bank's customer foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus reached a record high of 99.9 billion US dollars. The settlement rate rose by 7 percentage points to 69%, and the purchase rate fell by 4 percentage points to 61%, indicating a strong bullish sentiment towards the RMB at the end of 2025. In January 2026, the settlement rate is likely to remain high [7]. - Historically, the central bank mainly relied on foreign exchange holdings to passively inject base money. Currently, although there is a large surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales, the foreign exchange remains on commercial banks' balance sheets instead of being transferred to the central bank. In December 2025, the central bank's foreign exchange holdings decreased by 2.7 billion RMB month - on - month, while commercial banks' foreign assets increased by 595 billion RMB month - on - month. After considering the shrinkage of foreign assets denominated in RMB due to RMB appreciation, it can basically correspond to the surplus in bank foreign exchange settlement and sales [8][13]. - **1.2 The Expansion of a Bank's Balance Sheet Due to Foreign Exchange Settlement Does Not Simply Equal Loose Liquidity** - The impact of bank foreign exchange settlement on its balance sheet can be divided into two steps. First, the domestic assets denominated in RMB (such as excess reserves) on the asset side are converted into foreign - currency - denominated foreign assets, which consumes RMB reserves on the balance sheet without changing the scale of the balance sheet. Second, incremental deposits are formed as most of the RMB funds obtained by customers from foreign exchange settlement are deposited in domestic commercial banks, which is the process of bank balance - sheet expansion. - Without an increase in base money, an increase in deposits requires more legal reserves, resulting in a decrease in excess reserves. Some market analyses misunderstand the relationship between bank balance - sheet expansion and inter - bank liquidity [14]. 2. The Central Bank Actively Increases Investment, and Inter - bank Liquidity Remains Stable - Whether inter - bank funds will tighten in 2026 when the RMB continues to appreciate depends on whether the central bank actively increases investment to support funds. The central bank may need to maintain loose inter - bank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate, support economic growth, and cooperate with fiscal bond issuance [15]. - In terms of easing the RMB appreciation pace, the central bank can increase the supply of base money (through outright purchases, MLF, treasury bond trading, and reserve requirement ratio cuts) to keep inter - bank liquidity loose and guide the decline of capital interest rates, thereby alleviating the RMB appreciation expectation. In terms of cooperating with fiscal bond issuance, the central bank first maintains loose liquidity to hedge the liquidity gap caused by government bond issuance and then guides the primary issuance cost of fiscal bonds by buying treasury bonds [15]. - In 2025, the seasonal fluctuations of inter - bank funds have been significantly weakened. The central bank's ability to smooth capital fluctuations is not a problem, and the key lies in its willingness to support funds. The central bank's actions such as a total investment of 100 billion through outright reverse repurchase and MLF in January and increased OMO investment during the six - month window period of outright investment maturity show its support for inter - bank liquidity. After the benchmark interest rate is anchored to the overnight interest rate, the central DR001 may remain below 1.4% in the long term [19].

Core Viewpoint - China's merchandise trade surplus continues to rise, while the service trade remains in deficit, with the current account to GDP ratio below 3.5% as of September this year, indicating that external imbalances are not very significant [2] Trade Surplus and Economic Structure - The trade surplus is driven by a downward financial cycle that reallocates resources towards high-efficiency high-end manufacturing, accelerated technological advancements, and a decline in non-trade goods prices due to real estate adjustments, which lowers the intermediate input costs for trade goods and boosts exports [2] - Private sector deleveraging has suppressed demand, leading to a slowdown in imports, while manufacturing upgrades have increased domestic production capabilities, further reducing imports [2] Trade Data Overview - For the period of January to November 2025, China's customs-based merchandise trade surplus reached a record high of $1,075.8 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21% [3] - Exports during this period amounted to $3,414.7 billion, an increase of $174.6 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of 5.4%, while imports decreased to $2,338.8 billion, a decline of $13 billion year-on-year, with a growth rate of -0.6% [3] - The trade surplus as a percentage of GDP for the rolling 12 months ending September 2025 was 6.0%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with exports contributing 0.6 percentage points and imports contributing 0.7 percentage points to this increase [3] Regional Trade Surplus - The main regions contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include Hong Kong ($273.2 billion), the EU ($266.9 billion), the US ($257.0 billion), and ASEAN ($246.1 billion) [4] - Conversely, trade deficits were recorded with Taiwan (-$133.4 billion), Australia (-$47.7 billion), South Korea (-$37.3 billion), Russia (-$19.5 billion), and Japan (-$4.3 billion) [4] Product-Specific Trade Surplus - The primary products contributing to China's merchandise trade surplus from January to November 2025 include electrical equipment (HS85) at $352.7 billion, machinery (HS84) at $320.7 billion, vehicles and parts (HS87) at $182.9 billion, furniture (HS94) at $104.4 billion, and uncategorized goods (HS98) at $97.4 billion [5] - In contrast, significant trade deficits were observed in mineral fuels (HS27) at -$354.4 billion, minerals (HS26) at -$239.5 billion, jewelry (HS71) at -$64.0 billion, copper and its products (HS74) at -$50.5 billion, and nuts (HS12) at -$49.4 billion [5] Economic Indicators and Trends - The real estate sector shows signs of recovery, with the China Real Estate Prosperity Index rising to 95.4, driven by improvements in sales and financing indices [6] - The demand for new and second-hand homes has seen a narrowing decline compared to 2019, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [6][7] - The wholesale price index for essential products has shown a slight decrease, while the retail sales of major appliances and passenger vehicles have experienced significant year-on-year declines [8]

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]

Group 1: Key Insights on Weiteou (301319) - The recommendation logic indicates that electronic assembly materials are transitioning from domestic substitution to the global market, with perfluorohexane microcapsule fireproof materials expected to see significant growth in the new energy sector [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,557 million, 2,133 million, and 2,796 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 28.5%, 37.0%, and 31.1% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 102 million, 124 million, and 153 million yuan, with growth rates of 13.8%, 21.5%, and 23.5% [4] - Key catalysts include exceeding expectations in electronic assembly material orders, auxiliary welding material shipment ratios, and perfluorohexane microcapsule material orders [4] Group 2: Insights on Pharmaceutical Industry - The core viewpoint emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to break into international markets, driven by the "engineer dividend" which enhances clinical efficiency and data quality [5] - The report suggests that the domestic innovative drug pipeline is gaining recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs), with several technical fields achieving global leadership in pipeline quantity [5] - The driving factors include exceeding expectations in business development (BD), clinical data, and commercialization in overseas markets [5] Group 3: Insights on Food and Beverage Industry - The core viewpoint suggests focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the liquor sector as it approaches a cyclical recovery, while consumer goods are expected to continue benefiting from new consumption trends [7] - The report indicates that liquor companies' performance expectations are at a low point, with signals of stock price stabilization and potential rebounds [7] - Key drivers include the bottoming out of liquor company performance expectations and the expansion into new product categories and channels [7] Group 4: Insights on A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint advises against blind selling during market adjustments, suggesting that a systematic "slow bull" market is still in play and may enter a second phase after adjustments [8] - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector as a signal for potential market recovery, advocating for patience during the current market corrections [8] - Key drivers include the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations on global markets and the need for a rebalancing of market styles in the fourth quarter [9] Group 5: Insights on Macro Economic Strategy - The core viewpoint outlines three main paths to improve the resident consumption rate: promoting employment and income stability, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, and refining institutional mechanisms [11] - The report highlights the importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan in driving domestic consumption as a key economic growth engine [11] - The driving factors include the recent policy directions from the Communist Party's plenary session aimed at enhancing domestic consumption [11] Group 6: Insights on Fixed Income Market - The core viewpoint indicates that interbank liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, with seasonal disturbances amplifying the effects of low core reserves [12] - The report suggests that the true test of narrow liquidity may occur in the first quarter of 2026, influenced by credit slowdowns and central bank interventions [12] - Key drivers include the anticipated surge in credit in early 2026 and the market's limited understanding of the net financing outflows from major banks [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The net financing of large - scale banks is a synchronous and slightly leading indicator of inter - bank liquidity. Affected by the tax period, the net financing amount of large - scale banks reached the "tight - loose watershed" of 3 trillion yuan. Currently, seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, and the real test of narrow - sense liquidity may come in the first quarter of 2026 [1][3][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1大行净融出金额"险守"3万亿 - Qualitatively, due to the central bank's primary dealer system in the open - market, there is a capital transmission chain in the inter - bank market. The net financing of large - scale banks is the main core of inter - bank market financing. Quantitatively, on November 21, the net financing balance of large - scale banks was about 4.1 trillion yuan, accounting for about 35.6% of the inter - bank market's bond balance to be repurchased [2][10]. - From November 17 to November 21, the net financing amount of large - scale banks first decreased and then increased, "barely holding" 3 trillion yuan. The capital market was first tight and then loose, and the repurchase rate first rose and then fell. After the tax period ended, it rebounded to 3.66 trillion yuan on November 21, and DR001 reached a maximum of 1.53% [3][11]. - The current seasonal disturbance factors are magnified under the low core excess reserves, but the market's expectation of liquidity remains relatively stable. The narrow - sense liquidity may face a real test in the first quarter of 2026 [3][11]. 3.2狭义流动性 3.2.1央行操作：税期加大逆回购净投放 - Short - term liquidity: From November 17 to November 21, the central bank's net reverse - repurchase injection was 554 billion yuan. As of November 21, the central bank's reverse - repurchase balance was 1676 billion yuan, at a relatively high level [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In November, the maturity amount of repurchase - style reverse - repurchase was 1000 billion yuan, and MLF matured at 900 billion yuan. The central bank achieved a net injection of 500 billion yuan in repurchase - style reverse - repurchase [13]. 3.2.2机构融入融出情况：大行净融出先下后上 - Fund supply: On November 21, the net financing of large - scale banks was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of about 295.5 billion yuan compared with November 14. The net financing balance of money market funds decreased by about 191.2 billion yuan, and joint - stock banks' net borrowing decreased by about 165 billion yuan [16]. - Fund demand: On November 21, the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market was about 11.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 209 billion yuan compared with November 14. The market leverage ratio rose by 0.11 percentage points, and the leverage ratio of non - legal person products rose by 0.42 percentage points [23]. 3.2.3回购市场成交情况：量价皆稳 - Quantity and price of funds: In the past week, the volume and price of the inter - bank pledged - repurchase market were stable. The median daily trading volume decreased by 24.4 billion yuan, the median of R001 rose by 2bp, and the liquidity friction increased slightly [28]. - Fund sentiment index: The capital market was first tight and then loose. The sentiment index was generally above 50 during the tax period and began to decline after November 20 [29]. 3.2.4利率互换：基本持平 - FR007 IRS 1 - year interest rate and SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year interest rate were basically flat compared with last week. The median of FR007 IRS 1 - year was 1.54%, and the median of SHIBOR 3 - month IRS 1 - year was 1.59% [33]. 3.3政府债：未来一周政府债净缴款压力下降 3.3.1下周政府债净缴款 - In the past week, the net payment of government bonds was 362.9 billion yuan. In the next week, it is expected to be 233.7 billion yuan, with treasury bonds having a net repayment of 56.1 billion yuan and local bonds having a net payment of 289.8 billion yuan. The net payment pressure will be evenly distributed, and there will be a net repayment next Tuesday [34]. 3.3.2当前政府债发行进度 - As of November 14, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 93.0%, and the issuance progress of new local bonds was 95.3%. The issuance of refinancing special bonds has completed the annual task [35]. 3.4同业存单：收益率窄幅震荡 3.4.1绝对收益率 - On November 21, most of the SHIBOR quotes and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit of commercial banks with AAA ratings remained unchanged, except for overnight, 7 - day, and 1 - month terms which decreased [40]. 3.4.2发行和存量情况 - From November 17 to November 21, the issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased by 176.4 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1 - month and 1 - year terms increased, while those of 3 - month, 6 - month, and 9 - month terms decreased [42]. 3.4.3相对估值 - On November 21, the spreads between the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield and R007, and between the 10 - year treasury bond yield and the 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit yield were 14bp and 18bp respectively, at certain quantile levels since 2020 [47][48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term pressure on precious metal prices due to factors like tightened inter - bank liquidity in the US, increased CMBS default rate, and reduced probability of Fed rate cut in December; long - term support from geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 912.42 yuan/gram, down 4.52 from the previous day; trading volume was 64372, and open interest was 255692 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 11242 yuan/ten - grams, down 200 from the previous day; trading volume was 605454, and open interest was 4270780 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 3941.30, down 72.40 from the previous day; trading volume was 244620, and open interest was 327592 [1] - **International Gold**: London gold spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, down 74.15 from the previous day; SPDR gold ETF holding was 1041.78, down 3.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.91, up 1.08 from the previous day; trading volume was 60177, and open interest was 19 [1] - **International Silver**: London silver spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.76 dollars/ounce, down 1.02 from the previous day; iShare silver ETF holding was 15167.64, down 22.18 [1] Important Information - The fate of Trump's tariffs depends on three Supreme Court justices appointed by him; the US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, leading to a potential record - breaking government shutdown [1] - US job openings in October dropped to the lowest since April 2021, and the office real estate crisis accelerated with the CMBS default rate exceeding 11.8% [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions; for London gold, focus on support around 3580 - 3860 and resistance around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, support around 830 - 860 and resistance around 950 - 1000; for London silver, support around 39 - 42 and resistance around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, support around 9400 - 10000 and resistance around 11600 - 12400 [1]

Industry Investment Rating - Neutral | Maintain [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a stabilization phase, with a focus on credit issuance and interest margin improvement. The performance of the banking sector is expected to remain volatile due to changes in investor risk appetite and the rising profitability of technology growth sectors in the A-share market [6][32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - Closing Index: 4018.96 - 52-Week High: 4670.31 - 52-Week Low: 3552.99 [1] Banking Liquidity Review - From August 6 to September 25, the fluctuation of interbank funds was smaller than the same period last year. The DR007-OMO rates showed an upward trend in late August due to tax periods and improved bank credit issuance, followed by a downward trend in early September due to weak PMI data. By mid to late September, the rates increased again due to accelerated asset issuance by banks and regulatory compliance [12][17]. Monitoring of Liquidity Indicators - The usage of interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) improved due to increased medium to long-term funding from the central bank. However, the net financing growth of state-owned banks' CDs may decline marginally due to reduced deposit maturity volumes [5][18]. - The excess reserve ratio was measured at 1.29% in August 2025, remaining above levels from the past two years. The NSFR for large banks was 107.01%, consistent with the previous year, indicating a stable liquidity structure [23][27]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on banks with significant deposit maturities and potential interest margin improvements, such as Bank of Communications and Chengdu Bank. Additionally, it recommends looking at state-owned banks that benefit from consumer loan interest subsidy policies, like China Merchants Bank [6][32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the context of unchanged risk preferences, deposit "migration" follows a sequence from pure - bond wealth management products and money market funds to bond funds and equity funds. Pure - bond wealth management products are the main recipients of migrated deposits, followed by money market funds. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness structure, and equity funds are mostly outside the deposit migration path. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow choices and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure change. The effectiveness of quantity - based indicators such as excess reserves decreases, while the risk of short - term shock to inter - bank liquidity increases, but the central bank's attitude towards liquidity is supportive [1][34][44]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1 Capital Cross - market Rotation and Its Impact on Bond Market Liquidity 1.1 Cost - effectiveness as an Important Consideration for Deposit "Migration" - Due to the continuous decline in deposit interest rates, both household and corporate deposits are migrating. Households are affected by the decline in deposit interest rates, while enterprises are more affected by the ban on manual interest - supplement policies. Insurance products, pure - bond wealth management products, and bond funds have attracted migrated funds due to their yield advantages [12][15][16]. 1.2 Risk Preferences May Disturb the Direction of Deposit "Migration" - When risk preferences are stable, pure - bond wealth management products have the strongest ability to absorb migrated deposits, with a correlation coefficient of 0.87 between the spread of their yields over deposits and the difference between their scale growth rate and deposit growth rate. Money market funds rank second with a correlation of 0.64. Bond - type funds have a complex attractiveness, and equity funds are less involved in deposit migration. As the equity market strengthens, the order of deposit outflow changes, and the bank - to - bank liquidity structure becomes more complex [1][23][34]. 2 Important Matters - In August 2025, CPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 0.4% year - on - year; PPI was flat month - on - month and decreased by 2.9% year - on - year. In August, M1 growth continued to pick up, and government bonds were the main support for social financing. The central bank will conduct a 6 - month 6000 - billion - yuan buy - out reverse repurchase operation on September 15, 2025 [55][56][59]. 3 Money Market 3.1 Open - market Operations and Fund Interest Rate Trends - From September 8 to 12, 2025, the central bank net - injected 1961 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. It is expected that 13845 billion yuan of base money will be withdrawn from September 15 to 19. Bank - to - bank liquidity tightened marginally last week, and DR001 first rose and then fell [61][67]. 3.2 Certificate of Deposit Interest Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Volume - In the primary market, commercial banks' inter - bank certificates of deposit had a net financing scale of - 4680.1 billion yuan last week. The issuance scale of joint - stock banks was the largest, but they also had a net financing deficit. The issuance interest rate of certificates of deposit increased compared with the previous week. In the secondary market, the yields of certificates of deposit at all tenors increased due to the marginal tightening of the money market [70][74][79]. 4 Bond Market - In the primary market, the main supply of interest - rate bonds last week was still treasury bonds, with a total issuance scale of 5663.7 billion yuan and a net financing scale of 4155.9 billion yuan. The net financing rhythm of local government bonds from January to August was faster than that of treasury bonds. As of September 12, the cumulative net financing scale of special refinancing bonds in 2025 was 1.97 trillion yuan. In the secondary market, the bond market was in a weak mood last week, with the curve becoming steeper. The daily average turnover rate of active bonds increased, and the liquidity premium of 10 - year treasury bonds widened [83][90][95]. 5 Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.31 trillion yuan, and the average leverage trading scale was about 7.49 trillion yuan. In the cash bond market, state - owned banks increased their purchases of treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 5 years, rural commercial banks turned from selling to buying, insurance companies bought long - term treasury bonds and local bonds, while securities firms and funds sold bonds. In July 2025, the leverage ratio of all institutions in the inter - bank market decreased seasonally [111][119][122].