Cmb.Tech (NYSE:CMBT) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlexander Saverys - CEOChristophe Savi - SVP and Head of the NH3 divisionEnya Derkinderen - Brand ManagerFrode Mørkedal - Managing Director and Equity ResearchJoris Daman - Head of Investor Relations and ESGLudovic Saverys - CFOPetter Haugen - Head of Shipping ResearchConference Call ParticipantsClément Moulin - Sell-side AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystAlexander SaverysGood afternoon, and welcome to the CMB.TECH ...

各位朋友早上好，我是帮主。今天一早，全球市场就被一道"金色闪电"劈中了——不是暴涨，而是暴 跌。黄金价格单日暴跌超过12%，创下40年来最大跌幅；白银更夸张，盘中一度狂泻36%，创下历史记 录。昨天还在热议的"创新高"狂欢，一夜之间就变成了踩踏式抛售的恐慌。这场面，是不是让你瞬间清 醒了？它用一种近乎残酷的方式，给我们所有投资者，上了一堂关于市场本质的实践课。 第二，理解"流动性"的双刃剑效应。黄金白银市场深度好、流动性强，这能让资金快速进入推高价格， 也同样能让资金疯狂出逃砸穿地板。不要因为资产"硬"就忽视其交易层面的脆弱性。 第三，将这次暴跌作为一次珍贵的"压力测试"。它测试的不是黄金的价值，而是你自身的投资心性和风 险控制体系。你的心脏是否承受得住？你的持仓比例是否让你夜不能寐？这次实盘演练，比读一百本投 资书都管用。 总结来说，黄金的40年一跌，是一声响亮的警钟。它不是在告诉我们黄金失去了价值，而是在提醒我 们：在任何市场中，对群体情绪的警惕，都应该和对资产价值的信仰一样重要。 当潮水以惊人的速度 退去时，我们才能看清谁在裸泳，而谁的泳裤始终穿得结实。 市场接下来会进入一段复杂的震荡期，去消化这种极端 ...

Core Insights - Guangzhou's Pengrui No.1 is emerging as a top luxury real estate symbol, comparable to New York's Central Park Tower, with a record price of 28,856 yuan per square meter, making it the "king of luxury" in Guangzhou [6][7][10] - The city's economic growth and urban development are reflected in its rising status in global city rankings, with Guangzhou moving from Alpha- to Alpha level, now ranked 22nd in the GaWC world city system [4] - The luxury real estate market in Guangzhou is experiencing significant growth, with a 25% increase in both new and second-hand properties priced over 10 million yuan, and a staggering 60% increase in transactions for properties over 30 million yuan [5][6] Market Dynamics - The luxury market in Guangzhou is characterized by extreme scarcity of high-end properties, which enhances their potential for appreciation [5] - The total funds in Guangzhou reached 9.6 trillion yuan, marking a 9.4% year-on-year increase, the highest among China's top ten cities, indicating strong capital inflow into the city [5] - The unique location of Pengrui No.1 on the "Golden Avenue" along the Pearl River, with an average price of over 20,000 yuan per square meter, positions it as a prime asset for high-net-worth individuals [6][7] Competitive Advantage - Pengrui No.1's development emphasizes extreme quality and resource acquisition, with significant investments in design and construction, including a 10 billion yuan clubhouse and high-end art installations [12][15] - The project aims to create a unique lifestyle experience, integrating luxury living with cultural and ecological elements, which is unprecedented in China's luxury market [15][16] - The establishment of the "Deep Bay Club" enhances the value proposition of Pengrui No.1 by connecting top-tier entrepreneurs and providing exclusive resources, further solidifying its status as a luxury real estate leader [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7] Core Insights - The company's Q3 performance shows improvement in wind conditions year-on-year, with a rich pipeline of projects driving growth [7] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 10,035 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.29%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 1,989 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.17%, aligning with expectations [7] - The company has a strong project pipeline, including multiple ongoing projects that are expected to enhance growth potential [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are 14,428 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.9% [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 3,047 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 9.1% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.10 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 9 [3] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 29.6% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.1% [3] Operational Highlights - Wind power generation for the first three quarters reached 39.22 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.09%, with Q3 wind power generation at 10.55 billion kWh, up 3.76% year-on-year [7] - The company’s thermal power generation decreased by 5.50% year-on-year to 131.53 billion kWh in the first three quarters, but lower coal prices have improved profitability [7] - The company is actively investing in new projects, including a 656 MW offshore wind project and a 1.2 million kW pumped storage power station, which will enhance its clean energy portfolio [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has entered a downward trend since the second half of 2021, affecting cities from lower-tier to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, with significant price adjustments observed [1][9]. Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market in China has seen a notable decline, with prices in first-tier cities like Shanghai dropping from over 100,000 yuan per square meter to around 70,000 yuan [1]. - Lower-tier cities are facing severe challenges due to population outflow and economic structure issues, leading to potential oversupply and value depreciation in the next decade [9]. Bank Deposit Rates - Bank deposit rates have been on a continuous decline since 2021, with three-year deposit rates dropping from over 4% to below 3% in 2023, reaching historical lows [3]. - The decreasing deposit rates raise concerns about the relative value of real estate versus bank deposits over a ten-year horizon [5]. Investment Considerations - Investing 1 million yuan in first-tier cities may only cover a down payment, leading to long-term loan burdens and risks of significant asset depreciation due to potential market corrections [8]. - In contrast, holding 1 million yuan in bank deposits offers more security, as the principal and interest are less likely to suffer losses compared to high-priced real estate [11]. Liquidity Comparison - The liquidity of bank deposits is significantly higher than that of real estate, as evidenced by the surge in second-hand housing listings in major cities, indicating investor caution and a desire to liquidate assets [11]. - The ability to quickly convert real estate into cash is limited, especially in a declining market, making bank deposits a more favorable option for liquidity [11].