丨证券研究报告丨 金融工程丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 复盘系列（二）：美联储降息影响几何？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 结合美联储降息周期性质与资产表现数据，可发现资产价格走势始终围绕"政策力度、危机严 重程度、市场预期"三大核心变量展开。预防式降息中，温和降息场景下风险资产表现突出， 黄金则因环境差异分化；中高速率预防式降息引发市场担忧，美股微涨而新兴市场承压。应对 式降息中，轻度危机时流动性修复推动股市上涨，重度危机下盈利崩塌致股市大跌，黄金成避 险主力；紧急应对式降息则触发流动性挤兑，资产普跌。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 覃川桃 邓越 SAC：S0490513030001 SAC：S0490517070010 SFC：BUT353 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% 结合美联储降息周期性质与资产表现数据，可发现资产价格走势始终围绕"政策力度、危机严重 程度、市场预期"三大核心变量展开。应对式降息中危机显性化呈现"分化加剧"特征，预防式降 息则因预期管理有效呈现"均衡普涨"格局。 从资产表现看，核心受"政策力度、危机程度、预期"驱动。预防式降息中，温和降 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on various asset classes, highlighting the differences between "relief" and "preventive" rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Stock Market - Equity assets tend to perform better during preventive rate cuts, while they are likely to decline during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The winning rate of equities increases one month after preventive rate cuts, with performance during relief cuts being closely tied to fundamental recovery [2] Group 2: Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields are more likely to decline during relief rate cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is uncertain [1][2] - After rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease, and domestic bond yields also tend to drop in the short term, with no clear pattern observed in German or Japanese bonds [2] Group 3: Currency Market - The dollar's performance is mixed in the early stages of rate cuts, but tends to depreciate two to three months after relief cuts, while it may appreciate during preventive cuts [1][2] - The Chinese yuan shows relative independence in its movements compared to the dollar, while the euro and yen generally appreciate [2] Group 4: Commodity Market - Gold tends to have a higher average increase during preventive rate cuts, and its price elasticity is greater during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The relationship between oil prices and interest rate cuts is weak, as oil prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1][2]

Group 1: Economic Trends - The stock market has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, with small-cap indices leading the gains[2] - Industrial enterprise profits turned negative in May, with a year-on-year decline of 9.1%, marking the first negative result this year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has deepened its year-on-year decline, indicating increasing pressure from overcapacity in the industrial sector[4] Group 2: Credit Expansion and Asset Prices - Active credit expansion by commercial banks is driving asset price trends, with a notable increase in stock valuations and a decline in bond yields[10] - The growth of social financing has rebounded since the beginning of the year, indicating a supply-driven increase in credit rather than demand-driven[10] - The current trend in asset prices is expected to continue as regulatory authorities show a strong willingness to guide banks to increase credit supply amid slowing demand and low prices[10] Group 3: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential policy changes that could exceed expectations[3] - The ongoing low inflation environment and weak demand may lead to continued downward pressure on corporate profits, particularly in the third quarter[4] - The market anticipates three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, with a total reduction of approximately 64 basis points[18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the complexities and long-term nature of the China-U.S. trade friction from 2018 to 2019, highlighting its significant impact on asset prices and the sensitivity of markets to trade-related signals [1][3]. Summary by Sections Trade Friction Overview - The China-U.S. trade friction lasted nearly two years, experiencing four distinct periods of easing, each with varying durations and outcomes [1][2]. Asset Price Behavior - Three key patterns in asset price movements during the trade friction are identified: 1. Long-term asset price trends are primarily driven by fundamentals, with the Chinese stock market closely linked to domestic economic conditions [1][3]. 2. Markets react more sensitively to negative signals from trade negotiations, while responses to easing signals are relatively muted [1][3]. 3. Different asset classes exhibit varying sensitivities to trade friction, with stocks and currencies being more responsive compared to the bond market, which is influenced more by domestic policies and fundamentals [1][3]. Specific Easing Periods - **May 2018**: A joint statement was released, but the easing lasted only 10 days. U.S. stocks showed volatility, while Chinese stocks faced downward pressure due to tariffs and financial deleveraging [2]. - **December 2018**: Following a leaders' meeting, tariffs were not escalated, leading to a four-month easing period. A-shares and H-shares initially rebounded but later fell again until a central bank rate cut in January 2019 [2]. - **June 2019**: A trade agreement was reached, resulting in a one-month easing period. However, subsequent trade tensions led to declines in both U.S. and Chinese stock markets [2]. - **October 2019**: A phase one trade agreement was achieved, causing initial stock market gains, but the bond market reacted less significantly [2].