Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts significantly impact the performance of equity, debt, and currency assets, while the relationship with commodity prices is less clear [1][2] Equity Market - Equity assets have a higher success rate during preemptive rate cuts, while they are likely to decline during crisis-driven cuts [1][2] - The success rate of equities improves one month after a preemptive rate cut, and the performance during crisis-driven cuts is closely related to the recovery of fundamentals [2] Debt Market - U.S. Treasury yields are more likely to decline during crisis-driven rate cuts, while the trend during preemptive cuts is uncertain [1][2] - After rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease, while the trend for Chinese bonds is generally downward, with no clear pattern for German and Japanese bonds [2] Currency Market - The strength of the U.S. dollar is inconsistent in the early stages of rate cuts, but after 2-3 months, the dollar tends to depreciate under recessionary cuts and appreciate under preemptive cuts, with the Chinese yuan showing relative independence [1][2] - The average appreciation of the euro and yen is noted during these periods [2] Commodity Market - The relationship between commodity prices and interest rate cuts is weak, with gold showing a higher average increase during crisis-driven cuts and greater elasticity in price increases [1][2] - Oil prices are less correlated with rate cuts and are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts on various asset classes, highlighting the differences between "relief" and "preventive" rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Stock Market - Equity assets tend to perform better during preventive rate cuts, while they are likely to decline during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The winning rate of equities increases one month after preventive rate cuts, with performance during relief cuts being closely tied to fundamental recovery [2] Group 2: Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields are more likely to decline during relief rate cuts, while their behavior during preventive cuts is uncertain [1][2] - After rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields typically decrease, and domestic bond yields also tend to drop in the short term, with no clear pattern observed in German or Japanese bonds [2] Group 3: Currency Market - The dollar's performance is mixed in the early stages of rate cuts, but tends to depreciate two to three months after relief cuts, while it may appreciate during preventive cuts [1][2] - The Chinese yuan shows relative independence in its movements compared to the dollar, while the euro and yen generally appreciate [2] Group 4: Commodity Market - Gold tends to have a higher average increase during preventive rate cuts, and its price elasticity is greater during relief rate cuts [1][2] - The relationship between oil prices and interest rate cuts is weak, as oil prices are more influenced by supply and demand dynamics [1][2]

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on major asset markets released by the macro team of the research center on July 8, 2025, covering global asset market performance, stock index futures trading data, and treasury bond futures trading data [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 7, 2025, the 10 - year treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.381%, 4.585%, 3.320% respectively. The latest changes were 0.033, 0.032, 0.042 respectively. The one - year changes were 0.094, 0.455, 0.054 respectively [2] 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On July 7, 2025, the 2 - year treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.880%, 3.859%, 1.833% respectively. The latest changes were 0.100, 0.014, 0.022 respectively. The one - year changes were - 0.770, - 0.363, - 0.971 respectively [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - On July 7, 2025, the dollar - to - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.487 with a latest change of 1.21%. The one - year change was - 0.25% [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On July 7, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 6229.980. The latest change was not available, the one - week change was 0.40%, the one - month change was 3.73%, and the one - year change was 13.63% [2] Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. were - 0.38%, - 0.11%, etc. The one - year changes were 5.78%, 6.34%, etc. [2][3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3473.13, 3965.17, 2731.53 respectively. The price changes were 0.02%, - 0.43%, - 0.33% respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 treasury bond futures were 109.105, 106.225, 109.180, 106.305 respectively. The price changes were all 0.00% [5]

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/23 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/06/20 | 4.378 | 4.536 | 3.244 | 2.516 | 3.496 | 3.215 | 0.373 | 3.294 | 最新变化 | -0.015 | 0.007 | -0.027 | -0.004 | -0.025 | 0.039 | 0.060 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields**: On May 30, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, France, etc. showed different changes. For example, the US yield was 4.403, with a latest change of - 0.017, a one - week change of - 0.110, a one - month change of 0.229, and a one - year change of - 0.021. Other countries also had their respective yield values and changes [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields**: The 2 - year Treasury yields in the US, UK, Germany, etc. on May 30, 2025, had various changes. For instance, the US yield was 3.960, with a latest change of 0.040, a one - week change of - 0.040, a one - month change of - 0.090, and a one - year change of - 0.860 [3]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies on May 30, 2025, had different changes. For example, against the Brazilian real, it was 5.723, with a latest change of 1.35%, a one - week change of 1.82%, and a one - month change of 11.09% [3]. - **Stock Indices**: Major economies' stock indices on May 30, 2025, showed different performances. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 5911.690, with a latest change of - 0.01%, a one - week change of 1.88%, a one - month change of 11.39%, and a one - year change not provided. Other indices also had their respective values and changes [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Different credit bond indices had different changes. For example, the emerging economies' investment - grade credit bond index had a latest change of 0.18%, a one - week change of 1.11%, a one - month change of - 0.24%, and a one - year change of 5.43% [3]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: On May 30, 2025, the A - share index closed at 3347.49, with a decline of 0.47%. Other indices like the CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 also had their respective closing prices and percentage changes [4]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 12.46, with a环比 change of - 0.03. Other indices had their own PE values and changes [4]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.42, with a环比 change of 0.02. The German DAX had a risk premium of 2.37, with a环比 change of 0.00 [4]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1066.19, and the 5 - day average was - 323.24. Other sectors also had their respective fund flow data [4]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 11391.79, with a环比 change of - 462.43. Other indices had their own trading volume data and changes [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of IF was - 17.83, with a spread of - 0.46%. Other contracts also had their respective basis and spread data [4]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: On May 30, 2025, the closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.490, 105.715, 108.725, and 106.020 respectively, with no changes in percentage [5]. - **Funding Rates**: The R001 was 1.5667%, with a daily change of - 17.00 BP. The R007 was 1.6972%, with a daily change of - 4.00 BP. The SHIBOR - 3M was 1.6520%, with no daily change [5].