Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [2][4]. Economic Conditions - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very special," with rising inflation and a weak labor market creating a "dual risk" scenario [4]. - Recent data shows a slowdown in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of 911,000 in the annual non-farm payrolls, indicating an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs [4]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August 2025, highlighting labor market weaknesses [4]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-over-year as of August 2025, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5]. - Powell indicated that current inflation pressures are primarily due to a temporary rebound in commodity prices, while service price inflation is slowing [5]. Policy Decision Influences - The decision to cut rates was influenced by external pressures, including ongoing calls from President Trump for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [5]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5][6]. Future Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the labor market worsens, particularly with rising unemployment claims, the Fed may consider another 25 basis point cut in October 2025 or larger cuts in the following year [7]. - The Fed's recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" adjustment, indicating it does not signal the start of a sustained rate-cutting cycle [6]. Global Financial Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut has triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, affecting the U.S. dollar exchange rate and international capital flows [9]. - The dollar index has shown a downward trend, influenced by concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the Fed's independence [9][11]. Currency and Capital Flows - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Chinese yuan, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements for four months [11][12]. - Foreign investment in emerging market stocks and bonds reached nearly $45 billion in August, with approximately $39 billion directed towards China, indicating increased capital inflows [12]. Monetary Policy Strategy - In response to the Fed's actions, China's monetary policy may focus more on fiscal measures and reforms rather than direct rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential with the U.S. [14]. - Experts caution that further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater volatility in financial markets [14]. Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cut is expected to alter global asset pricing, prompting a need for diversified investment strategies across asset classes, sectors, and regions [15]. - Holding high-quality bonds is recommended as a strategy to prepare for the Fed's new rate-cutting cycle, optimizing potential returns while managing risks associated with economic slowdown [16].

21世纪经济报道记者 郭聪聪 美联储时隔9个月后重启降息。 当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会（以下简称 "美联储"）结束了为期两天的货币政策会议，决定 将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至4.00%~4.25%之间。 这是美联储自2024年12月以来的首次降息，也是继2024年三次合计降息100个基点之后，对货币政策的 又一次调整。 多名分析人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者，此次降息符合市场此前预期。在这一政策落地背后，市场仍关 注三大核心问题：美联储为何选择此时降息？本次降息为国际金融市场带来哪些连锁反应？包括中国在 内的经济体又该如何应对新的货币政策空间与挑战？ "对于政策制定者而言，在不断上升的通胀和疲软的劳动力市场之间取得平衡，是一个困境。" 据央视 新闻报道，美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上直言，当前美国经济形势"非常特殊"——通常情况下，劳 动力市场疲软时通胀会同步走低，劳动力市场强劲时则需警惕通胀升温，但如今美国面临的是"双向风 险"——一方面通胀持续攀升，另一方面劳动力市场表现疲弱。 从经济数据来看，美国就业市场的放缓迹象成为推动降息的重要因素。本月初，美国劳工统计局 （BLS）发布非农年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bank convertible bond market is experiencing a significant contraction in supply, driven by strong performance in bank stocks, leading to a reduction in the total balance of bank convertible bonds from nearly 300 billion yuan at the peak in 2023 to approximately 150 billion yuan currently [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The total balance of bank convertible bonds is expected to shrink by at least 100 billion yuan this year due to the early redemption of several bonds and the lack of new issuances [2][3]. - As of July 14, 2023, the market share of bank convertible bonds has decreased from a peak of approximately 38.97% to about 22.64% [2][7]. - The strong performance of bank stocks, with the bank sector index reaching a historical high, has triggered the early redemption of several convertible bonds [5][10]. Group 2: Institutional Response - Institutions are beginning to shift their asset allocation strategies in response to the rapid loss of quality assets in the bank convertible bond market, with some moving towards high-rated convertible bonds in non-bank financials and public utilities [1][11]. - The average allocation of convertible bonds in various asset management products has reached around 78%, indicating a sustained interest despite the market's contraction [9]. - Institutions are actively seeking alternative investment opportunities, focusing on high-rated, low-volatility convertible bonds as replacements for bank convertible bonds [12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing contraction in the bank convertible bond market may lead to increased difficulty in selecting suitable bonds, prompting some investors to exit the market [10]. - The focus on non-bank financial and public utility sectors is expected to grow, as these sectors are perceived to have lower credit risk and potential benefits from improved equity risk preferences [12]. - The potential for a "Davis double" effect, where both stock price increases and valuation improvements occur, is seen as a favorable scenario for convertible bonds in the current market environment [10].

Group 1 - Two fund companies, Dachen Fund and Huashang Fund, have recently announced self-purchases of their actively managed equity products, with Dachen committing at least 10 million yuan and Huashang 20 million yuan [1][4] - In June alone, at least five fund companies, including Xingquan and Hongli, have engaged in self-purchases of their equity products, with floating rate products being the majority [4] - Since 2025, a total of 119 public fund companies have initiated self-purchases, with Zhongou Fund leading the industry with 187 instances [4] Group 2 - Money market funds have become a significant focus for self-purchases, with many companies showing high net subscription amounts in these funds [4][5] - The structural adjustment in asset allocation strategies has led to money market funds becoming the mainstay for self-purchases, as traditional fixed-income products lose their appeal due to declining bond market yields [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong performance of bank stocks has led to multiple bank convertible bonds triggering mandatory redemption clauses, indicating a significant shift in the market dynamics of bank convertible bonds [1][3][4] Group 1: Mandatory Redemptions - Hangzhou Bank's convertible bond (杭银转债) will stop trading on July 2, with the last conversion date on July 4, and will be delisted on July 7 [1] - Nanjing Bank's convertible bond (南银转债) will have its last trading day on July 14 and last conversion day on July 17, with delisting scheduled for July 18 [1][2] - Qilu Bank's convertible bond (齐鲁转债) is expected to meet redemption conditions if its stock price remains above a certain threshold in the coming days [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Conversion Rates - The strong performance of bank stocks has created conditions for early redemption of convertible bonds, with the banking sector index rising by 1.54% on July 1 [3] - As of July 1, the conversion ratios for various bank convertible bonds have increased significantly, with Hangzhou Bank's bond nearing a 100% conversion rate and Nanjing Bank's bond at approximately 93% [3] Group 3: Market Size and Asset Allocation - The market size of bank convertible bonds is expected to shrink below 100 billion yuan, down from nearly 300 billion yuan at its peak in 2023 [4] - The reduction in the supply of bank convertible bonds is prompting institutional investors to adjust their asset allocation strategies, moving away from traditional core holdings in favor of dividend assets or other alternatives [4]