"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛"18日至20日在北京举行。中信集团党委副书 记、副董事长、总经理张文武在论坛上表示，当前，我们已进入充满变革的"大资管时代"。一方面，在 美联储降息周期下，美元指数大概率偏弱运行，这将进一步提升人民币资产吸引力，驱动全球资金增加 对中国市场的配置。同时，国内低利率环境，将促使居民资产配置逐步从单一储蓄，转向多元化金融资 产。另一方面，伴随资本市场改革深入推进，直接融资占社会融资规模比重逐步提升，多层次、多元化 融资体系日益完善，为财富管理行业和直接融资市场带来了历史性机遇。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [2][4]. Economic Conditions - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very special," with rising inflation and a weak labor market creating a "dual risk" scenario [4]. - Recent data shows a slowdown in the U.S. job market, with a downward revision of 911,000 in the annual non-farm payrolls, indicating an average monthly decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs [4]. - The unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August 2025, highlighting labor market weaknesses [4]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-over-year as of August 2025, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5]. - Powell indicated that current inflation pressures are primarily due to a temporary rebound in commodity prices, while service price inflation is slowing [5]. Policy Decision Influences - The decision to cut rates was influenced by external pressures, including ongoing calls from President Trump for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth [5]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 in favor of the rate cut, with one member advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [5][6]. Future Policy Outlook - Analysts suggest that if the labor market worsens, particularly with rising unemployment claims, the Fed may consider another 25 basis point cut in October 2025 or larger cuts in the following year [7]. - The Fed's recent rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" adjustment, indicating it does not signal the start of a sustained rate-cutting cycle [6]. Global Financial Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut has triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, affecting the U.S. dollar exchange rate and international capital flows [9]. - The dollar index has shown a downward trend, influenced by concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the Fed's independence [9][11]. Currency and Capital Flows - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Chinese yuan, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements for four months [11][12]. - Foreign investment in emerging market stocks and bonds reached nearly $45 billion in August, with approximately $39 billion directed towards China, indicating increased capital inflows [12]. Monetary Policy Strategy - In response to the Fed's actions, China's monetary policy may focus more on fiscal measures and reforms rather than direct rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential with the U.S. [14]. - Experts caution that further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater volatility in financial markets [14]. Investment Strategies - The Fed's rate cut is expected to alter global asset pricing, prompting a need for diversified investment strategies across asset classes, sectors, and regions [15]. - Holding high-quality bonds is recommended as a strategy to prepare for the Fed's new rate-cutting cycle, optimizing potential returns while managing risks associated with economic slowdown [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [1][2]. Economic Context - The current economic situation in the U.S. is described as "very special," with rising inflation and a weak labor market creating a "dual risk" scenario. The labor market has shown signs of slowing, with a downward revision of 911,000 in the annual non-farm payroll data, indicating an average monthly increase of nearly 76,000 fewer jobs [2][4]. - Inflation remains a concern, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-on-year as of August 2025, and core PCE rising 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [4]. Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Fed's decision to cut rates is influenced by the need to balance inflation control and employment stability, with a shift in focus towards job preservation as consumer spending, which accounts for 68% of GDP growth, relies on employment [4][5]. - The decision was also affected by external pressures, including ongoing calls from President Trump for rate cuts to stimulate economic growth, and internal dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), where one member voted against the cut, advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction [5][6]. Global Financial Market Reactions - The Fed's rate cut has triggered a chain reaction in global financial markets, impacting the U.S. dollar's exchange rate and international capital flows. The dollar index has shown signs of decline, influenced by concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability and the Fed's independence [6][8]. - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Chinese yuan, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements for four months and a balanced cross-border capital flow [8][9]. Implications for China - In response to the Fed's actions, China's monetary policy may focus more on fiscal measures and reforms rather than direct rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential providing some room for easing [11]. - Analysts suggest that while further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater financial market volatility, the overall economic context may allow for more balanced capital flows and investment opportunities [9][11]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocation strategies in light of the Fed's rate cuts, emphasizing diversification across asset classes, sectors, and regions. This includes considering lower correlation assets such as gold and infrastructure investments to enhance portfolio resilience [12]. - The anticipated decline in dollar cash rates and bond yields may increase the opportunity cost of holding dollar cash assets, prompting a shift towards high-quality bonds to optimize potential returns [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has restarted interest rate cuts after nine months, lowering the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking the first cut since December 2024 and following three previous cuts totaling 100 basis points in 2024 [1][2]. Economic Data - The slowdown in the U.S. labor market has been a significant factor driving the rate cut, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics revising down the annual job growth by 911,000, averaging a decrease of nearly 76,000 jobs per month [2]. - In August 2025, only 22,000 jobs were added, significantly below the expected 75,000, while the unemployment rate rose from 4.2% in July to 4.3% [2]. - Inflation risks remain, with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rising 2.7% year-over-year as of August 2025, and core PCE increasing by 2.9%, both exceeding the Fed's 2% target [2]. Federal Reserve's Focus - Analysts suggest that the Fed's primary focus has shifted towards employment, as consumer spending, which constitutes 68% of GDP growth, relies heavily on job stability [3]. - The decision to cut rates was influenced by external policy pressures and internal voting disagreements, with a notable dissenting vote advocating for a more aggressive 50 basis point cut [3]. Future Policy Outlook - Economic factors such as expansionary fiscal policy, tariff-induced inflation, and dollar depreciation may keep core PCE inflation relatively high in 2026, but further deterioration in the labor market could prompt another rate cut in October 2025 [4]. Global Financial Market Impact - The Fed's rate cut has immediate effects on global financial markets, influencing the dollar's exchange rate and international capital flows [5]. - The dollar index has shown signs of decline, with analysts predicting that the Fed's actions, combined with concerns over fiscal sustainability, will exert downward pressure on the dollar [5]. Currency and Capital Flows - The weakening dollar has led to a strengthening of the Renminbi against the dollar, with a continuous surplus in bank foreign exchange settlements for three months [6]. - Foreign investment in emerging market stocks and bonds reached nearly $45 billion in August, with approximately $39 billion directed towards China, indicating increased attractiveness of Renminbi assets [6]. China's Monetary Policy Response - In response to the Fed's rate cut, China may focus more on fiscal policy and reforms rather than immediate rate cuts, despite the narrowing interest rate differential providing some room for maneuver [7]. - Experts caution that further rate cuts in China could increase pressure on bank margins and lead to greater volatility in financial markets [7]. Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocation strategies in light of the Fed's rate cut, emphasizing diversification across asset classes, sectors, and regions [9]. - Holding high-quality bonds is recommended to lock in current yields before potential further declines in cash rates, while also serving as a risk management tool amid slowing economic growth [9].

Market Overview - On September 11, the A-share market experienced a broad increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index up over 3%, and the ChiNext Index increasing over 5% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.46 trillion yuan, marking the 22nd consecutive trading day with a volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan [1][3] Sector Performance - Technology sectors such as optical modules, optical chips, AI computing power, and consumer electronics saw significant gains, with the communication, electronics, and computer industries leading the rise [3][4] - Major contributors to the Shenzhen Component Index included companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyisheng, which collectively contributed over 137 points to the index's rise [2] Fund Flow and Financing - As of September 10, the A-share margin trading balance reached a historical high of 23,255.93 billion yuan, with an increase of over 630 billion yuan in September [5][6] - On September 11, net inflows of main funds exceeded 10 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest in large-cap stocks [6] Investor Sentiment - Analysts express optimism regarding the A-share market, citing a healthy and sustainable upward momentum supported by favorable policy expectations and stable liquidity [1][7] - The interest of U.S. investors in the Chinese market has reached its highest level since 2021, driven by China's leading position in certain technology sectors [7][8] Strategic Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on structural opportunities in sectors such as consumer electronics, resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and gaming, while maintaining a cautious approach to market volatility [7][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, anticipates the Federal Reserve will begin its first rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven rate cuts expected by 2026 [1] - The timing of the rate cuts may be later than some market expectations, but the overall aggressiveness, magnitude, and frequency of the cuts are still anticipated to be significant [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying believes that as the Federal Reserve opens its rate cut cycle, the US dollar is likely to weaken over the next one to two years, which would be beneficial for Chinese assets [3] - Under a weak dollar scenario, there is an expectation of a slight appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar, and historical data indicates that this situation enhances the attractiveness of Renminbi-denominated assets [3]