有券商研报预计，2026年全年居民定期存款到期规模超70万 亿元，其中一季度居民1年期及以上定期存款到期规模近30万 亿元。这些定期存款将流向何方？谁能接住这"泼天的富贵"？ 作者：欧阳晓红 封图：图虫创意 钱去哪了？钱怎么流动？商业银行悄悄在做什么？ 2026年1月15日下午，国务院新闻办发布会发布的一组看似枯燥的金融统计数据，揭开了资金流 动的暗涌——存款还在涨，但"存款的名义住址"变了。 中国人民银行调查统计司司长闫先东在会上表示，2025年末，我国社会融资规模和广义货币供应 量M2余额（340.29万亿元）分别同比增长8.3%和8.5%。存款是M2的主要组成部分，2025年 人民币各项存款新增26.4万亿元，其中非银行业金融机构存款全年增加6.4万亿元，同比多增3.8 万亿元。 闫先东表示，资管产品也对存款结构带来一定影响。2025年末资管产品总资产达到119.9万亿 元，同比增长13.1%；在资管产品底层资产中，存款与存单新增约4.6万亿元，占新增底层资产的 五成，也推动了非银行金融机构存款的增加。 这组数据意味着，钱并没有消失，也未离开银行体系，而是在"账户归属"和"金融中介链条"上发 生迁移，即 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that in 2025, the total increase in RMB deposits reached 26.41 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from non-bank financial institutions and asset management products [3][4]. Group 1: Deposit Growth - In 2025, deposits from non-bank financial institutions increased by 6.41 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.8 trillion yuan, the highest since 2015 [5][6]. - Household deposits grew steadily, adding 14.6 trillion yuan, which is 381.2 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating that non-bank deposits and household deposits are not mutually exclusive [7]. - Non-financial corporate deposits also saw a significant increase of 2.3 trillion yuan, up 2.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, with demand deposits rising by 5.3 trillion yuan [7]. Group 2: Asset Management Products - Asset management products played a crucial role in the increase of non-bank deposits, with total assets reaching 119.9 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8]. - In 2025, the underlying assets of asset management products included 4.6 trillion yuan in deposits and certificates of deposit, accounting for 50% of the new underlying assets, which significantly boosted non-bank financial institution deposits [8]. Group 3: M2 and M1 Trends - As of December 2025, M2 reached 340.29 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 3.8%, indicating a widening gap between M2 and M1 [10][11]. - The M2-M1 gap expanded from 3.1 percentage points to 4.7 percentage points, although it remains at a relatively low level compared to recent years [11]. - The increase in M1 was influenced by high base effects from the previous year, but the absolute increase of 2.6 trillion yuan in December was the second highest since 2019 [12].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is committed to supporting the high-quality development of the real economy through monetary policy adjustments, including a 0.25 percentage point reduction in various structural monetary policy tool rates, indicating that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions [2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The PBOC has lowered the rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [2]. - There is still potential for further RRR and interest rate cuts [2]. - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, which is influenced by multiple factors including economic growth and geopolitical risks [2][3]. Group 2: Foreign Exchange Market Outlook - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) anticipates a stable operation of the foreign exchange market in 2026, with cross-border capital flows remaining orderly [4]. - The trading volume in China's foreign exchange market has reached historical highs, indicating a resilient market capable of absorbing external changes [4]. - The proportion of trade settled in RMB has increased to nearly 30%, reflecting a growing trend towards using RMB in international trade [4][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Support Measures - Recent positive changes in China's price levels are noted, with the PBOC focusing on aligning monetary policy to support stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [5][6]. - The PBOC plans to include medium-sized private enterprises in the re-lending support program, allocating a total of 1 trillion yuan for this purpose [7]. - The PBOC will also expand support for the health industry under the service consumption and elderly care re-lending program [8]. Group 4: Financial Market Developments - By the end of 2025, the total assets of asset management products are expected to reach 119.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [12]. - The increase in funding for asset management products from households and non-financial enterprises is significant, with an additional 4 trillion yuan and 1 trillion yuan respectively compared to 2024 [13]. - Approximately 60% of import and export trade is minimally affected by exchange rate fluctuations, with ongoing improvements in financial services expected to enhance this resilience [9].

Market Overview - In April, stock markets including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks experienced significant volatility due to tariff issues, but major indices have been on an upward trend since early April [1] - From January to July, the A-share indices saw increases of approximately 6.61% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 5.71% for the Shenzhen Component Index, and 8.72% for the ChiNext Index [1] Asset Management Performance - Various asset management products showed strong performance in the first seven months of the year, with an average return of about 3.95% across 295 products displayed on the private equity platform [1] - Equity strategy asset management products outperformed others with an average return of 11.19%, while the average return for asset management products over the past year was approximately 11.78%, with equity strategy products leading at over 33% [1] Top Performing Products - The top three equity strategy products from January to July are: 1. Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 2 Index Enhanced" 2. Jinying Fund's "Jinying Xingwen Zhi Yuan No. 3 Collection" 3. Xiangcai Securities' "Qitai No. 1" [4][5] - The top three products in the futures and derivatives strategy category are: 1. Shanghai Dongya Futures' "Dongfeng No. 1" 2. Ruida Futures' "Ruizhi Wuyou No. 99" 3. CITIC Construction Investment Futures' "Quantitative CTA No. 1" [8][10] Manager Profiles - He Xiangqi, the investment manager for Guohai Liangshi, has extensive experience in quantitative investment strategies and manages multiple core products [6] - The investment managers for Jinying Fund's top product include Chen Ying and Fang Chao, both with significant experience in TMT industry research and investment [6] Multi-Asset and Bond Strategies - The top multi-asset strategy products include Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 6" and Jinxin Futures' "Jinxin Yueduan No. 1" [16][18] - In the bond strategy category, the leading products are Duyue Futures' "Xingfeng" and Shanghai Zhongqi Futures' "Convertible Bond Arbitrage No. 1" [21][22]

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.76%, 0.48%, and 0.53% respectively, while the North Star 50 index surged nearly 40%, reaching a historical high [1] - The domestic futures market was active amid geopolitical changes and increased dollar volatility, with strong performance in precious metals and some non-ferrous metals, while black commodities saw significant declines [1] Asset Management Product Performance - As of June 30, 2025, there were 368 asset management products with performance data, yielding an average return of 2.44% and a median return of 2.03% over the past six months [1] - Among the primary strategies, stock strategy products had the highest average and median returns at 4.96% and 3.58% respectively, outperforming the three major A-share indices during the same period [1] Performance by Strategy Stock Strategy - There were 39 stock strategy products with performance data, with the top three products being "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 2 Index Enhanced" by Guohai Liangshi Futures, "Jinying Xingwen No. 3 Collective" by Jinying Fund, and "Xiangcai Securities Qitai No. 1" by Xiangcai Securities [2][4] Futures and Derivatives Strategy - A total of 104 products were listed under futures and derivatives strategy, with the top three being "Ruida Futures - Ruizhi Wuyou No. 99" by Ruida Futures, "CITIC Jiantou Futures - Quantitative CTA No. 1", and "Xinda Litian No. 3" [7][9] Combination Fund Strategy - There were 104 combination fund products, with the top three being "Zhaoshang Futures - Baoyuan FOF", "Wanjia Gongying Zhongtai Quantitative 30 FOF Active No. 1", and "Penghua Asset - Zhongzheng 500 Index Enhanced FOF" [12][14] Multi-Asset Strategy - The multi-asset strategy saw "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 6" by Guohai Liangshi Futures, "Dayue Futures Haiying No. 1", and "Anliang Futures Tiancai Quantitative" as the top three products [14][18] Bond Strategy - In the bond strategy category, the top three products were "Haitong Futures - Gold No. 1", "Dayue Futures - Xingfeng", and "Shanghai Zhongqi - Convertible Bond Arbitrage No. 1" [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a fluctuating upward trend in the first half of 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.76%, 0.48%, and 0.53% respectively, while the North Securities 50 index surged nearly 40%, reaching a historical high [2]. Summary by Strategy 1. Stock Strategy - Among 39 stock strategy products with performance data, the average return in the past six months was 4.96%, and the median was 3.58%, outperforming the three major A-share indices [3]. - The top three products in terms of performance were: 1. Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 2 Index Enhancement" 2. Jinying Fund's "Jinying Xingwen Zhi Yuan No. 3 Collection" 3. Xiangcai Securities' "Xiangcai Securities Qitai No. 1" [4][6]. 2. Futures and Derivatives Strategy - There were 104 futures and derivatives strategy products, with the top three being: 1. Ruida Futures' "Ruida Futures - Ruizhi Wuyou No. 99 Single" 2. CITIC Futures' "CITIC Futures - Quantitative CTA No. 1" 3. Xinda Futures' "Xinda Litian No. 3" [9][11]. 3. Combination Fund - A total of 104 combination fund products were analyzed, with the top three being: 1. Zhaoshang Futures' "Zhaoshang Futures - Baoyuan FOF" 2. Wanjia Gongying Asset's "Wanjia Gongying Zhongtai Quantitative 30 FOF Active No. 1 Collection" 3. Penghua Asset's "Penghua Asset Zhongzheng 500 Index Enhancement FOF" [14][15]. 4. Multi-Asset Strategy - In the multi-asset strategy category, the top three products were: 1. Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 6" 2. Dayue Futures' "Dayue Futures Haiying No. 1" 3. Anliang Futures' "Anliang Futures Tiancai Quantitative" [18][20]. 5. Bond Strategy - There were 90 bond strategy products, with the top three being: 1. Haitong Futures' "Haitong Futures Golden No. 1" 2. Dayue Futures' "Dayue Futures Xingfeng" 3. Shanghai Zhongqi Futures' "Shanghai Zhongqi Convertible Bond Arbitrage No. 1" [22][24].

Core Insights - The average return of asset management products displayed on the "Private Equity排排网" platform for May 2025 is 0.66%, with 72.55% of products showing positive returns [2][3] - Multi-asset strategy products lead in performance with an average return of 1.53% for May 2025, while stock and derivative strategies have shown over 10% returns in the past year [2][3] Performance by Strategy Futures and Derivatives Strategy - There are 119 products in this category, with an average return of 0.27% for May 2025 and a one-year average return of 13.33% [3][10] - The top three products in this strategy have achieved significant returns, with the highest being managed by 瑞达期货 [8][11] Combination Fund Strategy - A total of 111 products are reported, with an average one-year return of 8.49% and 79.28% of products showing positive returns [12][15] - The leading product in this category is managed by 招商期货, achieving notable returns [12][15] Multi-Asset Strategy - There are 32 products in this category, with a one-year average return of 4.52% and a May 2025 average return of 1.53% [16][18] - The top product is managed by 五矿期货, demonstrating a significant advantage in returns [16][18] Bond Strategy - This category includes 66 products, with an average one-year return of 4.05% and a high positive return rate of 92.42% [19] - The leading product is managed by 海通期货, showcasing strong performance [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for banks and securities [9] Core Views - The report highlights the growth in wealth management products and the expansion of ETF assets, driven by the continuous improvement in the capital market's financing reforms [1][2] - It suggests seizing opportunities in high-quality individual stocks, recommending banks like China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, as well as securities firms like GF Securities and Orient Securities [1] Summary by Sections Wealth Management - In May 2025, the total number of wealth management products issued was 5,400, a month-on-month decrease of 9.8% [2][16] - The total outstanding scale of bank wealth management products reached 31.29 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.35 trillion yuan month-on-month, primarily driven by fixed-income products [2][39] - The average yield of bank wealth management products remained stable at 2.52% [2] Public Funds - As of the end of May 2025, the total market size of public funds was 32.03 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 0.35% and a year-on-year increase of 10% [3][16] - The issuance of public funds in May was 64.1 billion units, a month-on-month decrease of 31% [3][16] - The ETF assets saw a slight increase in net value, with the benchmark credit bond ETF contributing significantly to the growth [3] Securities Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the scale of securities asset management was 6.10 trillion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3% [4][16] - In May 2025, the new issuance was 1.337 billion units, a month-on-month decrease of 55% [4] Private Funds - By the end of April 2025, the total scale of private fund products was 20.22 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 1.28% [5][16] - In April, the newly registered scale of private funds was 64.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83% [5] Insurance Asset Management - As of Q1 2025, the balance of insurance fund utilization reached 34.93 trillion yuan, an increase of 5% since the beginning of the year [6][16] - The allocation ratio of bonds and stocks increased month-on-month [6] Trusts - In May, the issuance scale of trust products was 17.2 billion yuan, a month-on-month decrease of 64% [7][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for banks and securities [10] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in wealth management product yields and an increase in the scale of bank wealth management products, with a total scale of 30.95 trillion yuan as of April 2025, up by 2.06 trillion yuan month-on-month [2][3][17] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality individual stocks, recommending China Merchants Bank (招商银行) and securities firms with strong advantages in the wealth management industry, such as Guangfa Securities (广发证券) and Dongfang Securities (东方证券) [2][17] Summary by Sections Bank Wealth Management - In April 2025, the total number of wealth management products issued was 5,985, a decrease of 3.2% month-on-month, while the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 30.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.15% month-on-month [3][38] - The overall yield of wealth management products has increased, driven by a strong bond market, although equity product yields have declined due to market volatility [3][18] Public Funds - As of the end of April 2025, the total scale of public funds reached 31.92 trillion yuan, up by 0.99% month-on-month and 9.84% year-on-year [4][17] - The issuance of public funds in April was 92.5 billion units, a decrease of 8.36% month-on-month, while stock ETF shares and net asset values increased by 4% to 2.03 trillion units and 2.95 trillion yuan, respectively [4][17] Securities Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the scale of securities asset management was 6.10 trillion yuan, down by 3% quarter-on-quarter, with new issuance in April 2025 totaling 2.322 billion units, a decrease of 8.57% [5][17] Private Funds - As of the end of March 2025, the total scale of private funds was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.17% [6][17] - The newly registered scale of private securities investment funds increased significantly year-on-year, with a total of 329.78 billion yuan, up by 232.74% [6][17] Insurance Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the balance of insurance funds reached 33.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.08% year-on-year, with investments in bonds and stocks both increasing [7][17] Trusts - As of Q2 2024, the total asset scale of the trust industry was 27.00 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.87% year-to-date and 24.52% year-on-year [8][17] - In April 2025, the issuance scale of trust products was 20.555 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 78.84% month-on-month [8][17]