2024年末，中国大资管总规模站上150万亿元的高峰。 150万亿元是各个资管子行业的加总，其中包含资管子行业中的交叉金融部分，可能高于实际资管规模。但在银行存款利率走低、禁止银行"手 工补息"、规范同业存款的背景下，2024年确实是"金融脱媒"迹象较为明显的一年，包括银行理财、信托、公募基金、保险这四个资管子行业 均呈现规模两位数增长。 翻开资管行业的历史卷轴：2004年银行理财"横空出世"，这是中国资管业划时代的变化；2011年开始银信合作兴起，信托业迈入大发展时期； 2012年证监会发布《证券公司客户资产管理业务管理办法》，券商资管、基金子公司规模激增；2013年天弘基金联手支付宝推出余额宝，互联 网公司倒逼传统金融机构布局线上渠道；2015年的"股灾"暴露了场外配资、结构化资管计划加剧市场波动等乱象，"伞形信托"被叫停；2018年 多部门联合发布"资管新规"——《关于规范金融机构资产管理业务的指导意见》，行业清理影子银行、正本清源，打破刚兑、禁止资金池、限 制期限错配，大资管回归同一起跑线；2019年起至今理财子公司陆续呱呱落地，清洁起步，构成资管行业合规发展新势力；到2024年末，银行 理财净值化率 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-bank financial sector [2] Core Insights - The trend of "deposit migration" is likened to "living water" for wealth, facilitating an influx of incremental funds into risk assets. The continuous decline in deposit rates encourages clients to seek higher returns and diversified allocations, prompting financial institutions to innovate products that meet varying risk-return needs [3][4] - The non-bank financial sector presents significant investment opportunities due to performance elasticity, with the capital market entering a valuation recovery phase. The report outlines three phases of a bull market: valuation repair, hot sector rotation, and valuation bubble [3][4] - The report highlights a clear trend of increasing fixed-term deposits among residents, with the proportion exceeding 70% in early 2023 and projected to reach 72.28% by 2025, indicating a shift in savings behavior [16][21] Summary by Sections 1. Deposit Section: Turning Point of Wealth Migration - The report discusses the ongoing trend of wealth migration among residents, emphasizing the shift towards riskier assets as deposit rates decline [3][4] 2. Macro Trends: Sources of Increased Risk Appetite - The report identifies that the decline in deposit rates and the search for higher returns are driving residents to explore various financial products, including bank wealth management and public funds [3][4] 3. Asset Management Section: Adjustments in the "Dumbbell Structure" - The report notes that the asset management sector is experiencing a shift as residents move from traditional savings to more diversified investment products, reflecting a broader trend in wealth management [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The newly implemented "Regulations on the Appropriateness Management of Financial Institution Products" (referred to as "Regulation No. 7") aims to enhance the transparency and integrity of financial product sales, particularly those with uncertain returns and potential principal loss, by prohibiting misleading practices in product promotion and sales [1][4][5]. Group 1: Overview of Regulation No. 7 - Regulation No. 7 was officially released after a three-and-a-half-month consultation period, introducing stricter guidelines for financial institutions regarding the promotion and sale of investment products [1][2]. - The regulation specifically targets investment-type products, including asset management products and other financial products, which are primarily regulated by the former China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission [2][3]. Group 2: Prohibited Practices - Financial institutions are now prohibited from misleading or inducing customers to purchase products through performance manipulation or improper presentation [4][6]. - The regulation addresses practices such as obscuring product nature, confusing product categories, exaggerating product advantages, and selectively displaying performance data [6]. Group 3: Performance Disclosure and Management - The regulation emphasizes the need for clear performance disclosure, aligning with previous guidelines issued by the National Financial Regulatory Administration regarding asset management product information disclosure [7][8]. - The phenomenon of "new product ranking," where newly launched financial products exhibit inflated returns to attract investors, is highlighted as a concern that the regulation aims to mitigate [9]. Group 4: Investor Classification and Risk Assessment - Regulation No. 7 mandates the classification of investment products by risk level and requires an assessment of investors' risk tolerance, distinguishing between professional and ordinary investors [10][14]. - The regulation specifies that only products rated below an investor's risk level can be purchased, ensuring that investments align with the investor's risk capacity [14][15]. Group 5: Special Considerations for High-Age Clients - Financial institutions are required to exercise special care when dealing with clients aged 65 and above, implementing stricter operational procedures for high-risk product sales [18][19]. Group 6: Risk Assessment Frequency and Validity - The regulation standardizes the validity period for risk tolerance assessments to twelve months, limiting the frequency of assessments to prevent excessive evaluations aimed at selling high-risk products [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the public fund industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Public funds in China have core advantages over bank wealth management subsidiaries and insurance asset management, including high specialization, flexible transparency, and market-oriented operation mechanisms. The long-term core competitiveness lies in active equity investment, supported by in-depth industry research and diversified strategy tools [2] - The governance of companies is improving, and increased dividends from listed companies are fostering long-term capital. Public funds are expected to become the core managers of long-term funds, which will enhance market resilience and risk resistance [2] - Public funds are advancing towards platform-based, integrated, and multi-strategy development to achieve high-quality growth. This includes the integration of IT systems for comprehensive data analysis and resource collaboration, enhancing decision-making efficiency [2] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Positioning - Public funds are positioned as the "vanguard" of the asset management industry, with a management scale of approximately 31.77 trillion yuan, ranking second in the industry [11] 2. Development Path - The overall scale of the public fund industry is stabilizing and recovering, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.1% from 2016 to 2024, compared to other asset management products [5] 3. Market Opportunities - The total assets of Chinese residents are estimated to be around 550 trillion yuan, with financial assets accounting for approximately 32%, indicating a growing trend towards capital market investments [4] 4. Structural Changes - As of the first quarter of 2025, the scale of money market funds and bond funds has expanded to 13.33 trillion yuan and 10.10 trillion yuan, respectively, while mixed funds have seen a decline of about 15% since the end of 2023 [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for banks and securities [10] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in wealth management product yields and an increase in the scale of bank wealth management products, with a total scale of 30.95 trillion yuan as of April 2025, up by 2.06 trillion yuan month-on-month [2][3][17] - The report suggests focusing on high-quality individual stocks, recommending China Merchants Bank (招商银行) and securities firms with strong advantages in the wealth management industry, such as Guangfa Securities (广发证券) and Dongfang Securities (东方证券) [2][17] Summary by Sections Bank Wealth Management - In April 2025, the total number of wealth management products issued was 5,985, a decrease of 3.2% month-on-month, while the total scale of bank wealth management products reached 30.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.15% month-on-month [3][38] - The overall yield of wealth management products has increased, driven by a strong bond market, although equity product yields have declined due to market volatility [3][18] Public Funds - As of the end of April 2025, the total scale of public funds reached 31.92 trillion yuan, up by 0.99% month-on-month and 9.84% year-on-year [4][17] - The issuance of public funds in April was 92.5 billion units, a decrease of 8.36% month-on-month, while stock ETF shares and net asset values increased by 4% to 2.03 trillion units and 2.95 trillion yuan, respectively [4][17] Securities Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the scale of securities asset management was 6.10 trillion yuan, down by 3% quarter-on-quarter, with new issuance in April 2025 totaling 2.322 billion units, a decrease of 8.57% [5][17] Private Funds - As of the end of March 2025, the total scale of private funds was 19.97 trillion yuan, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.17% [6][17] - The newly registered scale of private securities investment funds increased significantly year-on-year, with a total of 329.78 billion yuan, up by 232.74% [6][17] Insurance Asset Management - As of Q4 2024, the balance of insurance funds reached 33.26 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.08% year-on-year, with investments in bonds and stocks both increasing [7][17] Trusts - As of Q2 2024, the total asset scale of the trust industry was 27.00 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.87% year-to-date and 24.52% year-on-year [8][17] - In April 2025, the issuance scale of trust products was 20.555 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 78.84% month-on-month [8][17]