Report Summary 1. Market Overview - Global capital markets experienced significant volatility and divergence, influenced by Trump's tariff threats and yen fluctuations. The VIX index rose slightly, the yen strengthened after depreciation, the US dollar declined sharply, US and Japanese stocks faced pressure, while gold and silver reached new highs. The RMB appreciated, A - shares continued to correct and diverge, and the BDI index soared. Commodities showed increased differentiation [5][10]. - In the domestic market, the bond market rebounded, stock indices showed mixed performance, and commodity sectors remained strong with continued divergence. The growth - style stocks outperformed the value - style. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly increase of 10.07%, with 6 out of 10 commodity sectors rising and 4 falling [6][16]. 2. Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 3.5 - 3.75% in January remains at 95.4%, and the probability of a 25 - bp cut to 3.25 - 3.5% is 4.6%. The market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to keep the rate unchanged, and investors will focus on dissenting votes and accompanying statements to assess future rate - cut timing and rhythm [7][67]. 3. Sector Analysis 3.1 Capital Flows - The commodity futures market saw a significant overall inflow of funds last week. The non - ferrous metals, chemical, and precious metals sectors had the most obvious inflows, while the agricultural products sector had a significant outflow [18]. 3.2 Variety Performance - Most domestic commodity futures rose last week. The top - rising varieties were lithium carbonate, platinum, and Shanghai silver, while the top - falling ones were glass, live pigs, and iron ore [22]. 3.3 Volatility Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index decreased, the Wind Commodity Index's volatility increased, and the Nanhua Commodity Index's volatility decreased. Among sectors, the coal - coking - steel - ore and grain sectors had significant volatility declines, while the chemical and oil - and - fat sectors had notable increases [25]. 4. Macro Logic 4.1 Stock Market - The four major domestic stock indices continued to correct and diverge last week. Growth - style stocks were stronger, and value - style indices declined. The valuation changes of stock indices diverged, and the equity risk premium (ERP) was at a one - year low [30][31]. 4.2 Commodities - Commodity price indices rose strongly, and inflation expectations rebounded strongly. The performance difference between commodities and stocks increased, and the difference between domestic and international commodity futures returns changed little [40][47]. 4.3 US Treasury Bonds - US Treasury yields showed mixed performance, with little change in maturity. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, real interest rates were under pressure, and the gold price reached a new high. US Treasury rates rose, the China - US spread narrowed, inflation expectations increased, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index declined, and the RMB strengthened [57][60]. 4.4 US Economic Indicators - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was strong, the Citi Economic Surprise Index rebounded, and the 10Y - 3M Treasury spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [62]. 5. Central Bank Policies 5.1 Fed - The Fed is likely to maintain the interest rate in January, and the market expects 1 - 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][67]. 5.2 Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%. The yen depreciated significantly and approached 160 against the US dollar. The market expects joint US - Japan intervention in the foreign exchange market [71][72]. 6. Impact of Yen Fluctuations - The yen's sharp fluctuations, especially rapid appreciation, can lead to the unwinding of global yen carry trades, resulting in tightened global market liquidity and asset - price volatility. It has different impacts on various asset classes, such as being negative for global bonds and stocks, positive for safe - haven assets, and causing oscillations and differentiation in commodities [85][86]. 7. Upcoming Events - This week, important economic data and central - bank meetings include US durable - goods orders, German business climate index, Canadian and Brazilian central - bank rate decisions, and the Fed's FOMC meeting [89].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas geopolitical tensions have led to increased investor risk aversion, with risk assets showing mixed performance. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, while A - shares were volatile and differentiated. The BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, and the RMB remained strong. Commodities were under pressure and differentiated, with internal style changes. Precious metals fell sharply, while non - ferrous metals were strong, and oil prices continued to be weak. Black - series commodities continued to rebound [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined across the board, with near - term bonds stronger than long - term ones. The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, with the growth - style stocks more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend. Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, with improved domestic and external demand, price differentiation, and enterprises replenishing inventories [85][88]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Overview - Overseas geopolitical tensions increased risk aversion. Risk assets were mixed, with global stocks and commodities mostly falling. A - shares were volatile and differentiated, and the BDI index slightly declined. The US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [6][11]. - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of - 6.87%, with 4 out of 10 commodity sector indices rising and 6 falling [6][16]. - The funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [7][20]. - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [7][30]. - The Fed's probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in January is 81.4%, and the market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. Large - scale Assets - Overseas geopolitical tensions led to increased risk aversion, with risk assets mixed. Global stocks and commodities mostly declined, A - shares were volatile and differentiated, the BDI index slightly declined, the US dollar rebounded, the RMB remained strong, and commodities were under pressure and differentiated [11]. Sector Express - The domestic bond market declined, the stock index was under pressure and mostly fell, and most domestic commodity sectors were weak. The growth - style stocks were more resilient than value - style stocks, and the CSI 500 rose against the trend [16]. - Most domestic commodity sectors declined, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of - 6.87%. Precious metals declined sharply, black - series commodities rebounded, non - metallic building materials rose 1.74% leading the commodities, soft commodities and grains were almost flat, and other sectors declined, with energy and chemical sectors continuing to be weak, oilseeds and oils significantly falling, non - ferrous metals continuously declining, and agricultural and sideline products sectors having the largest decline [16]. Capital Flow - Last week, the funds in the commodity futures market flowed out significantly. The energy and soft - commodity sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the non - metallic building materials, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural and sideline products sectors had significant capital outflows [20]. Variety Performance - Most domestic major commodity futures declined. The top - rising commodity futures were nickel, glass, and soybeans, while the top - falling ones were platinum, palladium, and silver [25]. Fluctuation Characteristics - The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index slightly decreased, the domestic Wind Commodity Index had a significant increase in volatility, and the volatility of the Nanhua Commodity Index changed little. The volatility of commodity futures sectors varied, with coal, coking, steel, and ore, agricultural and sideline products, and non - metallic building materials sectors having obvious volatility decreases, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors having notable volatility increases [30]. Data Tracking - Internationally, major commodities showed mixed performance. The BDI slightly rose, the CRB was flat, soybeans, corn, and gold fell sharply, copper, silver, and oil rose, precious metals rose and then fell, and the gold - silver ratio rebounded from the bottom [33]. - The asphalt开工率 declined, real - estate sales seasonally increased, freight rates rebounded together, and short - term capital interest rates rose and then fell [54]. - US bond interest rates rebounded, the Sino - US interest rate spread declined, inflation expectations were weakly stable, financial conditions were loose, the US dollar index rebounded, and the RMB continued to be strong [67]. Macro Logic - The stock index was under pressure and mostly declined, and the valuation and risk premium ERP changed little [36][43]. - The commodity price index fell from a high level, and inflation expectations rebounded from a low level [45]. - The US bond yield curve was steeper, with short - term yields weaker and long - term yields stronger. The term spread fluctuated narrowly, and the real interest rate and gold price fluctuated slightly [62]. - The US high - frequency "recession indicator" was stable, the Citi Economic Surprise Index declined, and the 10Y - 3M US bond spread widened significantly and then fluctuated narrowly [69]. Relationship between Stocks and Commodities - Last week, the stock market mostly declined, commodities were volatile and differentiated, and the commodity - stock return difference changed little. Domestically - priced commodities became stronger, and internationally - priced commodities became weaker, and the internal - external commodity futures return difference fluctuated upwards [53]. Fed Interest - Rate Expectations - The Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged in January, with a probability of 81.4%. The probability of a 25bp rate cut to 3.25 - 3.5% remains below 20%. The market expects about 2 rate cuts in 2026 [7][79]. China's PMI Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.25%, up 0.7 percentage points, also returning to the expansion range. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.7%, up 1.0 percentage point, indicating an overall expansion of Chinese enterprises' production and operation activities [88]. This Week's Focus - Monday (January 5): South Korean President Yoon Suk - yeol is on a state visit to China from January 4 to 7. - Tuesday (January 6): Eurozone December PMI data, US December S&P Global PMI final value, French/German December CPI, and the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas (until the 9th). - Wednesday (January 7): Eurozone December CPI, US December ADP employment figures, and US November JOLTs job openings. - Thursday (January 8): US October wholesale sales data and US October trade balance. - Friday (January 9): China's December CPI, US December non - farm payroll report, and the opening of the Silicon Valley Auto Show. [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, after the U.S. government ended its shutdown, market sentiment varied, and asset trends diverged. The controversy over AI bubble resurfaced, and the high - level decline of safe - haven assets such as gold and Bitcoin raised market concerns, resulting in a decline in investors' risk appetite and a slight increase in the VIX volatility index. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, with A - shares leading the decline after reaching a high, while the Hang Seng Index had a relatively large increase. The BDI index rose, U.S. bond yields increased, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose [4][8]. - In the domestic market, the bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up, with the Wind Commodity Index having a weekly change of 3.92%. Among the 10 commodity sub - sector indices, 6 closed up and 4 closed down. Commodity futures generally maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products [4][13]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Global asset trends: Global major stock markets showed mixed performance, A - shares led the decline after reaching a high, the Hang Seng Index rose, the BDI index increased, U.S. bond yields went up, the U.S. dollar index slightly declined, and most non - U.S. currencies strengthened. Most commodities rose, with precious metals stabilizing, rebounding, and then fluctuating at a high level, and copper and oil prices slightly rebounding [4][8]. - Domestic market performance: The domestic bond market mostly closed down with short - term weakness and long - term strength, and most stock indices declined. The commodity sectors showed mixed performance but generally closed up. The Wind Commodity Index had a weekly change of 3.92%. Commodity futures maintained the pattern of strong agricultural products and weak industrial products, with precious metals leading the rise, followed by significant increases in the agricultural products, grains, and oilseeds sectors. The non - ferrous and chemical sectors slightly closed up, while other sectors all closed down, with the coal, coking, steel, and mining and energy sectors having the largest declines [4][13]. - Futures market capital flow: The overall capital in the commodity futures market slightly flowed in. The precious metals, non - metallic building materials, oilseeds, and non - ferrous sectors had obvious capital inflows, while the soft commodities, coal, coking, steel, and mining, and chemical sectors had obvious capital outflows [4][15]. - Commodity volatility: The volatility of the international CRB Commodity Index significantly increased, while the volatility of the domestic Wind Commodity Index and Nanhua Commodity Index showed a divergent performance of one rising and one falling. Most of the commodity futures sub - sector volatilities declined, with the oilseeds, non - ferrous, soft commodities, and coal, coking, steel, and mining sectors having the largest decline in volatility, and the energy sector having the most obvious increase in volatility [5][22]. Variety Performance - The domestic major commodity futures showed mixed performance in the recent week. The top - rising commodity futures varieties were Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, and apples, while the top - falling varieties were glass, coke, and red dates [18][21]. Data Tracking - International commodities: International major commodities generally closed up, the BDI slightly increased, the CRB was flat, soybeans and corn rose, and copper, oil, gold, and silver all closed up, with the silver price rising more and the gold - silver ratio significantly declining [26]. - Domestic data: Asphalt production rate continued to decline, real - estate sales were weakly bottom - seeking, freight rates rebounded with differentiation, and short - term capital interest rates fluctuated downward [41]. Macro Logic - Stock market: The domestic four major stock indices fluctuated and declined last week. In terms of style, value stocks were obviously more resistant to decline, while growth - style stock indices were relatively weaker. The valuation of stock indices declined, and the equity risk premium (ERP) changed little [30][31]. - Commodities: The commodity price index fluctuated and rebounded, and the inflation expectation was under downward pressure [34]. - U.S. bonds: U.S. bond yields rebounded, the term structure steepened bearishly, the term spread changed little, the real interest rate rebounded, and the gold price rebounded and then declined [49]. - U.S. economic indicators: The U.S. high - frequency "recession indicator" weakened, the Citi Economic Surprise Index showed differentiation, and the 10Y - 3M U.S. bond spread fluctuated in positive territory [60]. Fed Interest Rate Expectation The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25bp to 3.5 - 3.75% in December decreased to 39.8%, significantly lower than last week's 61.9%, while the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged at 3.75 - 4% increased significantly [5][68]. This Week's Focus - Monday (November 17): Canada's October CPI monthly rate, U.S. November New York Fed Manufacturing Index [73]. - Tuesday (November 18): U.S. October Import Price Index monthly rate, U.S. October Industrial Production monthly rate, U.S. November NAHB Housing Market Index, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari hosts a fireside chat, Reserve Bank of Australia releases November Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed visits the White House and meets with U.S. President Trump [73]. - Wednesday (November 19): U.S. API crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, UK October CPI monthly rate, Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value, U.S. October New Housing Starts annualized, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 14, U.S. EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma for the week ending November 14 [73]. - Thursday (November 20): China's October Swift RMB share in global payments, China's one - year loan prime rate as of November 20, Germany's October PPI monthly rate, Switzerland's October trade balance, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending November 15, U.S. November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Eurozone November Consumer Confidence Index preliminary value, U.S. October Existing Home Sales annualized, U.S. October Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate, U.S. EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 14, Fed releases Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech, September non - farm payroll data [73]. - Friday (November 21): Japan's October core CPI annual rate, UK November Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, Canada's September retail sales monthly rate, U.S. November S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value, U.S. November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value, U.S. November one - year inflation rate expectation final value, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee gives a speech, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker gives a speech on the economic outlook, European Central Bank President Lagarde gives a speech, New York Fed President Williams gives a speech [73].

Market Performance - A-shares experienced wide fluctuations on September 23, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18% to 3821.83 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.29% to 13119.82 points, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% to 3114.55 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24.944 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Most industry sectors declined, with banking, shipping ports, and semiconductor sectors showing the highest gains, while tourism, real estate services, small metals, medical services, software development, and automotive services faced the largest declines [1] Investor Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the early drop in the market was influenced by the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, leading to profit-taking behavior, especially among leveraged funds [2] - The rebound in the afternoon indicates that some investors remain optimistic about the future of A-shares, willing to buy the dip despite the earlier declines [2] - The significant increase in trading volume suggests that major funds may be creating panic to shake out weaker hands before the holiday [2] Company Insights - Xiangdian Co., Ltd. (湘电股份) saw its stock hit the daily limit, with only 24 out of 147 stocks in Hunan province rising [3] - The company specializes in the development, production, and sales of large and medium-sized AC and DC motors, as well as electric vehicles and related systems [3] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported earnings per share of 0.14 yuan and a net profit of 188.4351 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 12.98% [3] - Xiangdian is the sole producer and supplier of all-electric propulsion systems for naval vessels and electromagnetic catapult systems for aircraft carriers in China, holding a 100% market share domestically [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market opened lower today, which was unexpected given the previous Friday's positive close in Hong Kong stocks, indicating a potential upward trend that did not materialize [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index opened down by 1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index was down approximately 0.3% [1] - Despite the initial low opening, the Hang Seng Index turned positive, rising by 0.27% after 11:14 AM, and the Shanghai Composite Index also showed gains, with over 3,600 stocks rising [2][4] Investor Sentiment - The initial low opening was attributed to fears stemming from the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran, particularly the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which raised concerns about potential global market impacts [1][2] - Some investors appeared to have exited the market during pre-opening trading due to these geopolitical tensions, reflecting a cautious sentiment [2][4] A-Share Resilience - Despite the external uncertainties, A-shares managed to remain in the green, suggesting an increasing attractiveness of the A-share market compared to the previously high-performing Hong Kong stocks [4][5] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential shift of funds back to A-shares as investors seek stability amid external volatility [4] Sector Focus - The technology sector is highlighted as a strong performer, with expectations that it will not be absent from any upcoming market rallies, given its prolonged adjustment period [6]