1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of range - bound consolidation. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q3 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, truck and bus tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, agricultural tire shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 1% year - on - year [5]. - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The northern region will increase by 3.1%, the northeastern region by 1.3%, the central region will decrease by 1.7%, and the southern region will increase by 1.2%. The annual harvesting area is expected to slightly decrease by 0.1%, while the per - mu yield will increase by 0.9% [6]. - In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to October, the total import volume was 6.782 million tons, a 17.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [7]. - The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation into passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [7]. Market Trends - This week, the prices of RU, NR, and the overseas TSR20 in the rubber market declined synchronously, with NR leading the decline, while the price of Japanese rubber increased. As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 14,995 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,035 yuan/ton, a 1.67% decrease; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 168.70 cents/kg, a 1.17% decrease; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 312.90 yen/kg, a 1.10% increase [9][11]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region shows a seasonal decline, with a slight increase at the end of the week due to the influence of typhoons. In China, the rainfall in Hainan production area decreased this week, and the rainfall in Yunnan production area decreased seasonally [41][43]. - The raw material prices in domestic and foreign production areas are showing a differentiated trend due to the typhoon's impact on rubber tapping and the weakened purchasing enthusiasm of factories. As of November 7, 2025, the price of glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period; the price of raw rubber sheets was 55.55 baht/kg, a 0.36% increase; the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,000 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; and the price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, a 2.84% decrease [45][47]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 559 yuan/ton, a 32.16% increase from the previous period; the production profit of Thai smoked sheets was 460.99 yuan/ton, a 12.84% decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was 1,967 yuan/ton, a 2.91% decrease; and the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was - 133.77 yuan/ton, an 18.25% increase [55][58]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the exports of smoked sheets to China year - on - year and month - on - month, and a significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber year - on - year and month - on - month [65][68]. - In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [71]. - In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally, with the reduction mainly in latex and standard rubber [75]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow at a high rate, and the exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. - In September 2025, China imported 595,900 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a 14.41% increase month - on - month and a 20.92% increase year - on - year. The imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [83]. Demand - Last week, the production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate, and most other enterprises' equipment operated stably. During the period, the products were mainly sold in the normal way, and the overall inventory fluctuated slightly. The all - steel tires started to accumulate inventory again this week, and the semi - steel tires also accumulated inventory. As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.05% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 1.07% increase; the inventory days of all - steel tires were 39.20 days, a 0.49% increase; and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.05 days, a 0.51% increase [86][88]. - In September 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the exports of all - steel tires were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [92]. Inventory - The current domestic natural rubber inventory has increased significantly, with an increase in dark - colored rubber and a decrease in light - colored rubber. The inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.056 million tons, a 1.64% increase from the previous week; the inventory of dark - colored rubber was 657,900 tons, a 2.92% increase; and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,200 tons, a 0.40% decrease [99]. - As of November 7, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 119,000 tons, a 1.60% decrease from the previous week; the futures and spot inventory was 162,200 tons, a 0.08% increase; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 48,600 tons, an 8.80% increase; and the futures and spot inventory was 51,900 tons, a 5.97% increase [105]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate [111]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%. The production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level last week, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will operate stably with a slight weakness in the next period [110]. - View: It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a period of range - bound consolidation in the short term. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips after a sharp decline; if the market is in a narrow - range consolidation, it is advisable to wait and see. For inter - period trading, observe. For options, investors who meet the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [113].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the natural rubber market saw a decline in prices due to weakened raw material and macro - driving forces. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the spot market for domestic natural rubber also adjusted downward with cautious trading [9]. - Global natural rubber production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is gradually normalizing, while Hainan's production has recovered despite potential typhoon impacts. Qingdao port inventories continue to decline, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations and a slight increase in general trade inventory. Demand from downstream tire enterprises shows mixed performance, with semi - steel tire production having some support and full - steel tire demand lacking improvement [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Raw material and macro - driving forces weakened, causing rubber prices to fall. Imported rubber prices dropped, and the domestic spot market adjusted downward with limited real - order follow - up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Production areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan's production is normalizing, and Hainan's production has recovered. Qingdao port inventories are declining, with the bonded warehouse decline exceeding expectations. Downstream tire enterprises' capacity utilization may slightly decrease [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15300 - 15750, and the nr2511 contract between 12150 - 12600 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Movement**: The main contract of Shanghai rubber futures fell 1.8% week - on - week, and the 20 - rubber main contract fell 2.03% week - on - week [14]. - **Position Analysis**: Not detailed in summary, only mentioned the top 20 position changes of Shanghai rubber and 20 - rubber [15][17]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 19, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was 5, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was 0 [22]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 154,920 tons, an increase of 1,980 tons from last week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,553 tons, a decrease of 2,023 tons from last week [28]. - **Spot Market** - **Domestic Natural Rubber Price**: As of September 18, the state - owned whole latex was reported at 14,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **20 - Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of September 18, the 20 - rubber basis was 706 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 820 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56.3 (+0.1) Thai baht/kg, and cup lump was 51.05 (-0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of September 19, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 12 US dollars/ton from last week [40]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Price**: As of September 18, the Yunnan latex price was 14,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week; the Hainan fresh latex price was 14,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton from last week [43]. - **Import Quantity**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [46]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 586,600 tons, a decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.95%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 8.32% to 66,200 tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.07% to 520,400 tons [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No content related to option market analysis was provided in the report. 3.5 Downstream Situation - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.74%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.18 percentage points [53]. - **Tire Export**: In July 2025, China's tire export volume was 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [57]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [60].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the tire industry, particularly highlighting the stability in demand and the introduction of new products by key players like Sailun [5][6]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in raw material prices, which is expected to benefit manufacturers [5][8]. - Sailun has launched a new product line, the Liquid Gold tire fashion series, which includes innovative features [5][6]. - The U.S. tire retail sales remain robust, with a year-on-year increase of 3.53% in May 2025 [5][67]. - The import demand for tires in the U.S. shows a mixed performance, with semi-steel tire imports decreasing while full-steel tire imports are increasing significantly [5][76]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - The tire raw material price index decreased to 152.76 in June 2025, down 2.63% month-on-month and 11.82% year-on-year [5][9]. - Natural rubber averaged 14,257 CNY/ton, down 4.67% month-on-month and 3.99% year-on-year [5][9]. - Styrene-butadiene rubber averaged 12,005 CNY/ton, down 3.64% month-on-month and 21.53% year-on-year [5][9]. Production and Export - In June 2025, the average operating rate for full-steel tires in China was 63.96%, up 5.61 percentage points year-on-year [5][26]. - The production of new inflatable rubber tires in China reached 101.99 million units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.20% [5][28]. Consumption - The replacement market for tires shows resilience, with stable demand in the U.S. [5][38]. - In June 2025, China's heavy truck sales were approximately 92,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.85% [5][55]. Shipping Costs - Shipping costs showed significant fluctuations in June 2025, impacting the overall cost structure for tire imports and exports [5][6]. Industry News - Sailun's participation in the Nürburgring endurance race resulted in a podium finish, showcasing the performance of their tires under challenging conditions [5][6].