瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.19」 天然橡胶市场周报 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「周度要点小结」 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 研究员：林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询证书号Z0021558 业务咨询 添加客服 行情回顾：本周天然橡胶市场原料及宏观驱动减弱，胶价走跌。进口胶市场报盘下跌，套利盘平 仓出货，轮胎厂逢低补货。国产天然橡胶现货市场重心下调，美联储降息不及预期，宏观情绪降 温，现货市场报盘下调，交投谨慎，实单跟进有限。 行情展望：全球天然橡胶产区处于割胶期，云南产区天气扰动减少，胶水上量逐步恢复正常，原 料价格暂稳；海南产区降水扰动减弱，割胶作业有所恢复，岛内原料供应环比增量，虽未来将受 到台风天气影响，但受制于订单及利润空间一般，当地加工厂对原料补库情绪谨慎。近期青岛港 口库存延续降库，降幅幅度较上期稍有缩窄，其中保税库去库幅度大于预期，一般贸易库出现小 幅累库。下游大多补标胶为主，带动保税库提货量增加，去库幅度超预期，短时随着下游逐渐提 货到厂，一般贸易库存存去库预期。需求方面，本周国内轮胎企业产能利用率窄幅波动 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the tire industry, particularly highlighting the stability in demand and the introduction of new products by key players like Sailun [5][6]. Core Insights - The tire industry is experiencing a decline in raw material prices, which is expected to benefit manufacturers [5][8]. - Sailun has launched a new product line, the Liquid Gold tire fashion series, which includes innovative features [5][6]. - The U.S. tire retail sales remain robust, with a year-on-year increase of 3.53% in May 2025 [5][67]. - The import demand for tires in the U.S. shows a mixed performance, with semi-steel tire imports decreasing while full-steel tire imports are increasing significantly [5][76]. Summary by Sections Raw Materials - The tire raw material price index decreased to 152.76 in June 2025, down 2.63% month-on-month and 11.82% year-on-year [5][9]. - Natural rubber averaged 14,257 CNY/ton, down 4.67% month-on-month and 3.99% year-on-year [5][9]. - Styrene-butadiene rubber averaged 12,005 CNY/ton, down 3.64% month-on-month and 21.53% year-on-year [5][9]. Production and Export - In June 2025, the average operating rate for full-steel tires in China was 63.96%, up 5.61 percentage points year-on-year [5][26]. - The production of new inflatable rubber tires in China reached 101.99 million units in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.20% [5][28]. Consumption - The replacement market for tires shows resilience, with stable demand in the U.S. [5][38]. - In June 2025, China's heavy truck sales were approximately 92,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28.85% [5][55]. Shipping Costs - Shipping costs showed significant fluctuations in June 2025, impacting the overall cost structure for tire imports and exports [5][6]. Industry News - Sailun's participation in the Nürburgring endurance race resulted in a podium finish, showcasing the performance of their tires under challenging conditions [5][6].