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歌力思:海外加速调整致使业绩承压,2025年轻装上阵-20250502
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-05-02 02:23
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an adjusted profit forecast for 2025-2027 [5][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to face pressure on performance in 2024 due to overseas adjustments, but is anticipated to return to profitability in 2025 as it sheds burdens from its overseas business [5]. - The domestic core brand is leading the industry, with healthy growth in revenue, while overseas operations are expected to continue impacting overall performance negatively [3][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have a revenue of 3.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%, but a net loss of 310 million yuan. Adjusted for one-time expenses, the net profit would be approximately 30 million yuan [1]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 690 million yuan, a decrease of 8% year-on-year, but a net profit of 40 million yuan, reflecting a 40% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 67.4%, with an overall net margin of -8.4% [1]. Market and Brand Analysis - The domestic market is showing robust growth, with a projected revenue increase of 10% in 2024 and 8.1% in Q1 2025 for the core brand [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its e-commerce channels, which have shown significant growth, with online sales increasing by 32.4% in 2024 [3]. - The main brands, including ELLASSAY and Laurel, are expected to continue their growth trajectory, with sales increases of 8% and 19% respectively in 2024 [4]. Cash Flow and Inventory Management - The company has effectively managed its cash flow, with a net operating cash flow of 420 million yuan at the end of 2024 [5]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a year-on-year reduction of 12.3% by the end of 2024, indicating efficient inventory management [5].
曼卡龙(300945):业绩增速亮眼,全渠道协同发挥差异化优势
CMS· 2025-04-30 03:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3][9] Core Views - The company achieved impressive growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with revenue increasing by 23% and net profit by 20% in 2024, and Q1 2025 showing revenue growth of 43% and net profit growth of 34% [1][7] - The online and offline channels demonstrated strong synergy, with Q1 2025 online sales up by 61% and offline sales up by 33%, highlighting the company's differentiated brand positioning and digital management capabilities [1][7] - The company is expected to maintain good profitability due to effective cost control, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 126 million, 158 million, and 188 million respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 31%, 25%, and 19% [1][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 2.36 billion (up 22.55% year-on-year) and a net profit of 96 million (up 20.02% year-on-year) [7] - The gross margin for 2024 was 13.38%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points, influenced by product mix changes and the rising share of lower-margin e-commerce channels [2][10] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.40 per 10 shares, totaling 36.69 million, with a cash dividend ratio of 38.17% [7] Channel Performance - E-commerce revenue reached 1.29 billion in 2024, accounting for 54.83% of total revenue, with significant growth in emerging live-streaming channels [7][8] - The company expanded its store network, ending 2024 with 235 stores, including 121 franchise stores and 54 direct stores, indicating a strong growth strategy [8] Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to continue enhancing its digital management and brand positioning, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 showing consistent growth [9][10] - The report anticipates a steady increase in revenue, with total revenue projected to reach 3.01 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28% [10][12]