越认真止损，亏得越多？ 近期塔勒布（《随机漫步的傻瓜》《黑天鹅》作者）有一篇关于"止损"的文章很火。 关于"止损"，历来有很多争议，要不要止损，如何止损，不仅是投资理念问题，也是一个具体操作的问题，这篇论文的价值在于，在电脑上做了 5000 次 蒙特卡洛模拟后，把之前的一些结论量化了。当然，这些结论也会面临如何在实际投资中运用的问题。 本文先简单介绍一下这篇论文的核心观点，后面再详细分析与"止损"有关的四个重大实操问题。 1/5 图中那根黄线所在的位置是"下跌10%"的止损位线，绿色的曲线是止损后的收益率分布，看上去，右侧正收益部分的概率全部显著增加了，左侧亏损部分 的概率全部减少了。 但问题在于10%止损线处，出现了一个亏损的峰值，论文借用了一个数学名词"狄拉克质量（The Dirac Mass）"。止损不仅切断了灾难，也切断了复活的 机会，所以大量的交易以止损告终，全部堆积在止损线上，这就形成了狄拉克质量。 上图的结果，在无漂移随机漫步（可理解为抛硬币那种零涨跌环境），波动率年化约20–25%（相当于沪深300的波动率），10%的固定止损下，有大约 50%的概率触及止损——这个数字相信高于大部分投资者的心 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the psychological mechanisms behind the popularity of casual games, highlighting how they engage players through simple rules and immediate feedback [1][2][3] Group 1: Behavioral Economics - The concept of "near-miss effect" is explained, where players overestimate their chances of success after a near success, leading to repeated attempts [1] - "Time preference" or "time discounting" is introduced, indicating that people have a natural inclination towards immediate rewards, which casual games provide through timely and frequent feedback [2] Group 2: Real-Life Applications - The article draws parallels between gaming experiences and real-life scenarios, such as the urgency felt in limited-time offers or the pressure of deadlines, emphasizing the competition against time [3] - It illustrates how games like "2048" reflect decision-making processes in real life, where seemingly minor choices can lead to significant long-term consequences [3]

海峡题材属于游资生态，最近确实很火。游资+高频量化博弈有鲜明的特征：高换手、烂业绩，偏小 盘。所以用OVS指标排序，很容易捕捉到游资生态的头部标的，你们可以拆解一下OVS指标的第一性原 理，我在介绍这个指标的文章中也有说过。 并没有脱离调整的框架 驼峰区的磨损足以吐尽前期获利 凸形反转持续缩量，就是危险信号 能涨就是爷，这里没有任何鄙视的意思，只是说游资生态和机构生态完全不同，甚至几乎是完全隔离 的。而且往往机构生态休息的时候，游资生态就会闹热起来。 欧马体系明显在机构生态范围内，若是做游资生态的朋友，应该很难从欧马体系学到有用的东西，即便 勉强学，也多有误解。 我所说的产业锚定和主线也是在机构生态之内，所以我几乎不提及游资生态的事物，术业有专攻，投机 的哲学并不是什么都要会，而是要敢于放弃，聚焦擅长的领域。 我不确定新的主线是哪个，最近吵吵的那些东西或许是，但肯定大多数都不是。市场还远没有调整完， 不着急下结论。回顾一下4月份单日300点暴跌之后，率先强烈反弹的既不是光连接，也不是PCB，更不 是有色，这些真正的主线都是6月份之后才陆续登台的。 机构的东西，要用慢思考。建议大家有空读读丹尼尔卡尼曼的《快思考 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]