[图片来源：Freepik] 大脑天生追求捷径与速度，而非绝对精准。这并非缺陷，而是自然赋予我们的生存机制。然而，思维中的谬误，即认知偏见，会干扰我们对他人及决策的判 断。 心理学家丹尼尔·卡尼曼在《思考，快与慢》一书中指出："我们常对显而易见的事物视而不见，更是对自身的盲点毫无察觉。"好消息是：你可以战胜认知 偏见，这无需意志力，只需养成简单可重复的习惯。只要掌握识别方法，你就能发现规律并加以改变。这种觉察力能助你更清晰地思考、做出更优决策，看 清事物的本质。 神译局是36氪旗下编译团队，关注科技、商业、职场、生活等领域，重点介绍国外的新技术、新观点、新风向。 编者按：首要原则是：你绝不能欺骗自己——而你自己正是最容易被欺骗的人。本文来自编译，希望对您有所启发。 思想与行动间的间隔正是深度思考的孕育之地。有时，短短几秒便足以改变局面。若后果关乎人生转折，延迟行动更需从容。面对文字、邮件或面对面交流 中的情绪触发点时，同样适用此法。 3. 反驳自己的观点 我决策时常采用此方法。假设我认为方案A优于方案B，便会强迫自己为B辩护，即便内心觉得荒谬。这能拓展思维边界，让我更清楚自己的认知盲区。对 坚定信念保持松弛态 ...

Group 1 - The current market is in an adjustment phase with a divergence breakthrough, indicating that the recent rebound has ended and a pullback is expected [1] - Historical trends suggest that after a significant upward movement, personal accounts often experience profit withdrawal, leading to a situation where new highs are rarely achieved before further declines occur [1] - Behavioral psychology concepts such as recency effect, loss aversion, availability heuristic, and confirmation bias play a role in market movements [1] Group 2 - Group psychology will ultimately reflect in momentum indicators, with signs of top divergence indicating an increase in retreating and cashing out funds [2] - To effectively track trends, it is essential to learn to identify changes in momentum and understand the overall market psychology [2] - Leading stocks, such as those in the computing power sector, are seen as consolidating and not showing signs of fatigue, suggesting that the market trend is not over [2] Group 3 - New categories that are rising against the trend, such as energy storage and lithium batteries, should be closely monitored [3] Group 4 - The market maintains a multi-mainline structure, reducing the need for excessive concern about overall market movements, allowing individual stock strategies to diverge from broader market trends [5]

2025年一季度A股交易数据显示，超70%的散户投资者曾"卖飞龙头股"——即在股价启动前或上涨初期卖出，随后股价连续涨停。 "卖飞龙头不是运气问题，是心理问题。"某私募机构操盘手王磊透露，"散户'拿不住'的背后，是4个深层心理魔咒在作怪。这些魔咒连专业操盘手都曾中 招，更别说普通投资者。" 实验数据揭示了确认偏误的影响：某大学让两组投资者持有同一只龙头股，A组每天接收3条利好消息和1条利空消息，B组接收1条利好消息和3条利空消 息。结果，B组投资者在上涨初期卖出的概率比A组高41%；其中，68%的B组投资者表示"利空消息让我更确定要卖"，而A组这一比例仅为23%。 "打破确认偏误的关键是'强制信息平衡'。"投资顾问李敏建议，"投资者可以建立'信息清单'——列出支持持有的3个理由（如业绩增长、行业地位）和支持 卖出的3个理由（如估值过高、技术压力），定期对比。如果'支持持有'的理由仍占优，就应继续持有，而非被单一利空消息左右。" 赵辉，50岁，北京退休教师，2024年买入某消费龙头股。该股因行业调整震荡了8个月，股价从50元跌到45元时，他想起自己为研究这只股花了3周时间，看 了50份研报，还咨询了5个"专家" ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of personal growth through reading and reflection rather than solely focusing on technical skills [1][5][45] - It highlights five influential books that have significantly impacted the author's journey from engineer to CTO, focusing on their transformative effects on thinking and leadership [5][45] Group 1: Book Summaries - **The Pragmatic Programmer** by David Thomas and Andrew Hunt is recommended for its foundational principles that remain relevant today, emphasizing the importance of writing adaptable and maintainable code [6][7][8] - **Designing Data-Intensive Applications** by Martin Kleppmann is described as a comprehensive guide that reshapes understanding of data systems, focusing on reliability, scalability, and maintainability [14][16][17] - **A Philosophy of Software Design** by John Ousterhout addresses code complexity and offers strategies for creating simpler, more manageable modules, emphasizing readability and maintainability [20][23][28] - **Thinking, Fast and Slow** by Daniel Kahneman explores cognitive biases and decision-making processes, encouraging critical thinking and awareness of one's assumptions [32][34][37] - **The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People** by Stephen Covey provides a framework for personal leadership and effective communication, stressing the importance of proactive behavior and continuous self-improvement [38][40][44] Group 2: Key Takeaways - The books collectively serve as a form of ongoing education that extends beyond formal training, challenging conventional thinking and promoting personal development [45][46] - The article encourages the establishment of a "mentor bookshelf" to foster continuous learning and growth in one's career [45][46][47]

一、33亿资金出逃的警示 9月4日，科创板两融余额单日减少33亿元的消息引发市场关注。表面看，这不过是普通的市场波动，但细究之下，却藏着令人深思的玄机。 二、新闻的致命滞后性 在A股摸爬滚打这些年，我逐渐明白一个残酷事实：新闻永远比市场慢半拍。当利好见报时，往往已是机构获利了结的时刻。这就是A股特有的"抢跑文 化"——聪明钱总是提前布局，等消息公布时反而成了出货良机。 记得2020年某半导体龙头发布业绩预增公告当天，股价却暴跌7%。当时百思不得其解，后来才明白机构早在三个月前就开始建仓。这种信息差就像一道无 形的墙，将散户永远隔绝在食物链末端。 三、用数据穿透迷雾 真正让我觉醒的是十年前的一次惨痛教训。当时某新能源概念股连续涨停，所有媒体都在唱多。我全仓杀入后，股价却开始阴跌。后来通过专业工具复盘才 发现，在最后一个涨停板时，机构资金早已悄然撤离。 这张图清晰展示了机构资金的运作轨迹。橙色区域显示当股价看似要崩盘时，实际上机构只是暂时降低活跃度（二级区），等待散户恐慌抛售后再从容接 盘。这种"锁仓"手法在专业投资者眼中一览无余，却能让普通散户痛不欲生。 四、血淋淋的市场课堂 2024年"9.24行情"中的惠威 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a fabricated police report regarding a prominent figure in a religious institution, highlighting how misinformation can manipulate public perception and emotions, leading to widespread belief in false narratives [3][68]. Group 1: Misinformation and Public Reaction - A fake police report created a significant stir, overshadowing official denials and causing public frenzy [3][12][68]. - The fabricated document was designed to evoke strong emotions, featuring dramatic elements that resonated with the public's existing suspicions about the figure involved [25][39]. - The public's belief in the false report was fueled by pre-existing biases and the nature of social media, which amplifies misinformation [34][42][68]. Group 2: The Nature of the Fabricated Document - The fake police report was crafted to resemble an official document, complete with realistic formatting and logos, making it more believable [17][18]. - In contrast, the official communication from the religious institution was formal and lacked the sensational elements that captured public attention [19][20][25]. - The narrative within the fake report played on themes of corruption and scandal, which are more engaging than the dry language of official statements [25][56]. Group 3: Underlying Motivations and Implications - The motivations behind creating such misinformation include generating online traffic, disrupting public perception, and exploiting societal distrust in official sources [29][30][31]. - The incident reflects a broader trend where religious institutions face scrutiny and potential backlash due to perceived corruption and commercialization [60][66]. - The fallout from this event poses a significant threat to the reputation of the religious institution, undermining its moral authority and operational legitimacy [66][68].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent decline in the Moutai price below 2000 yuan signifies a psychological breakdown among investors, leading to panic selling [1][2] - The white liquor sector is facing challenges such as inventory reduction, shrinking demand, and external policy pressures, which contribute to investor anxiety [2][5] - The stark contrast between the struggling white liquor market and the thriving new consumption sector indicates a significant shift in market dynamics and capital flow [2][4] Group 2 - Understanding the true movements of institutional funds is crucial for investors to avoid becoming "bag holders" and to identify real opportunities [4][5] - Data analysis can reveal the underlying market truths, helping to eliminate subjective biases and confirm the essence of trading behaviors [6][9] - The use of quantitative data tools can track institutional participation, highlighting the performance of stocks based on their trading activity [11][12]

嗨诸位，我好起来了，烧退了，食欲在今天下午也恢复了。 晚上我主动要求多吃点，老婆让我带儿子去隔壁商场吃马记永的拉面，整整吃了一大份，肚子hold住 了，没有吐，精气神也很好，我觉得这波诺如就算扛过去了。 自限性疾病就是这样的，注意观察，控制症状，非必要不去医院，因为去了医院医生也多半是开点止泻 的、退烧的药，然后让我回家休息调养。 算起来最近三天我全部食物摄入就是这一碗拉面，吃的够少的，所以晚上回来我满心期待的掏出家里的 小米体重秤过了一下磅，74kg，哈哈，比前几天掉了2kg。 前几天又又拉的时候，在精神层面给我激励的就是想到这次肯定能减重，偷偷还蛮期待的。可以可 以，春节胖了3kg，这次生病直接掉了2kg，也没白受罪，舒服了 6、估值折扣明显，msci中国指数比全球的估值达到创纪录的10个pe点。 7、中国比80年代的日本经济增速快，后续加速人民币国际化，会加强股市预期。 8、虽然中国有人口下降和贸易壁垒这些挑战，但报告作者还是认为中国股市会在2024年启动牛市，并 刷新史高。 怎么样，是不是看的热血沸腾，毕竟报告里说的这些内容还都是有根有据的，外资最近几天确实也明显 回流抢购了部分港股和a股。 我晚上回 ...