Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★★★ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★★★ [1] - Natural rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various soft commodities, including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, pulp, and timber, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly, with general spot trading and stable basis. The release of cotton import quotas in 2026 is conducive to the convergence of internal and external price differences. The domestic peak season shows good performance, with increasing开机 and good digestion of cotton yarn finished - product inventory. The short - term main negative factor is the quota release, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [2] Sugar - Last week, US sugar fluctuated. In Brazil, less rainfall in the rainy season and a decline in the sugar - making ratio are expected to reduce sugar production in the 26/27 season. In China, Zhengzhou sugar is strong. The production and sales progress in Guangxi in the 2025/26 season is slow, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuates. The spot price is stable. In the northwest, the procurement enthusiasm of merchants increases, while in Shandong, the trading volume is small. The cold - storage inventory decreases year - on - year, and the spot price is strongly supported. The trading logic focuses on the demand side, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures prices of natural rubber and 20 - rubber rose, while the butadiene rubber futures price fluctuated. The supply of natural rubber is in the low - production period, and the butadiene rubber device operating rate decreased. The tire operating rate increased, and the inventory situation is different for different types of rubber. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the Middle East situation and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [5] Pulp - Pulp futures are in low - level fluctuations. The domestic pulp port inventory is still high, but the overseas quotation is strong. The long - term cost has certain support, and the downstream demand is general. The medium - term trend may be range - bound [6] Timber - The futures price is strong. The spot price in Taicang decreased. The external quotation increased, and the future arrival volume may be low. The downstream is gradually resuming work, and the port delivery volume increased. The inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]

Group 1 - The core agreement between the US and UK involves the establishment of a low-tariff import quota for UK cars, reducing tariffs from 27.5% to 10% for up to 100,000 vehicles annually [1][6][5] - The US will also eliminate tariffs on UK steel and aluminum products, which currently face a 25% additional tariff [1][4] - The agreement is expected to enhance US exports to the UK by $5 billion, including industrial products like chemicals and agricultural products such as beef [2][6] Group 2 - The US-UK trade agreement is seen as a unique arrangement, with President Trump stating that similar deals will not be made with other countries, particularly in the automotive sector [5][7] - The timing of the announcement coincided with the anniversary of World War II victory, emphasizing the historical significance of the US-UK relationship [6] - The agreement is positioned as a potential benchmark for future negotiations with other countries, including Japan, although the outcomes may differ significantly due to varying trade balances [7][8] Group 3 - The UK is in a more favorable position compared to Japan in trade negotiations, as the US has a trade surplus with the UK of $11.9 billion, while it has a significant trade deficit with Japan of $68.5 billion [8][10] - The automotive industry in the US has expressed concerns that the UK agreement should not set a precedent for negotiations with Asian or European competitors [10] - Japan's negotiations with the US are complicated by its higher automotive export volumes and the need to renegotiate terms from previous agreements, which may not yield similar benefits as those granted to the UK [10]

Group 1 - The Indian government has provided separate import quotas for internal combustion engine vehicles and electric vehicles to the UK under a trade agreement [1]