Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - In the first three quarters of 2025, the bond market yield showed an "N"-shaped trend. Credit bond yields fluctuated similarly to government bond yields, with overall wide - range volatile upward movement. Credit spreads first narrowed and then widened slightly. Default risk continued to decline, with default entities concentrated in real - estate bonds, mainly private enterprises. The amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market increased year - on - year, while the amount of upgraded ones was lower than the same period last year [9][37][38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation Curve: Yields Fluctuated Widely and Rose - As of September 23, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year China Development Bank bonds changed by 30BP, 20BP, and 30BP respectively. The yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 22BP, 13BP, 8BP, and - 25BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA +, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 11BP, 21BP, 26BP, and 59BP respectively. Overall, the yields of medium - short - term and long - term interest - rate bonds and most credit bonds increased, and the credit spreads of various varieties narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10]. Treasury Bond Yields Presented an "N"-shaped Trend - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of the year, the central bank suspended Treasury bond trading and reduced open - market investment to stabilize the exchange rate. The tightened capital led to an upward trend in bond market yields. After the Two Sessions, the market adjusted its expectations, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90% [11][12]. - **Late March - April**: The capital became looser, and the Sino - US tariff "tug - of - war" began. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range [16]. - **May - early July**: In early May, the central bank's RRR cut and interest rate cut, along with positive results from tariff negotiations, led to a slight increase in long - end interest - rate bond yields. In June, the central bank's reverse - repurchase operations improved the capital situation, and bond yields fluctuated downward [16]. - **Mid - July - September**: The "anti - involution" policy raised inflation expectations, the equity market strengthened, and the bond market was suppressed. Bond yields rose, but short - end yields were stable, resulting in a "bear steep" pattern [16]. Credit Spreads - Credit Spreads of All Grades First Narrowed and Then Widened - **January - mid - March**: At the beginning of January, interest - rate bonds quickly adjusted upward, and credit spreads were passively narrowed. Before the Two Sessions, the market expected an RRR cut and interest rate cut, and credit spreads widened briefly. After the Two Sessions, credit spreads narrowed rapidly again [17]. - **Late March - April**: The bond market recovered quickly, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. - **May**: Credit spreads narrowed to the lowest point of the year due to the implementation of monetary policy tools and looser capital [17]. - **June - early July**: Short - end Treasury bond yields declined, and credit spreads first widened slightly and then narrowed [17]. - **Mid - July - September**: The bond market adjusted, and credit spreads widened slightly [17]. The Risk of Downgraded Implied Rating in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In the first three quarters of 2025, the amount of credit bonds with a downgraded implied rating in the ChinaBond market was 764.1 billion, a significant year - on - year increase. The amount of upgraded credit bonds was 358 billion, significantly lower than the same period last year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter [21]. Default: Default Risk Decreased, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In the first three quarters of 2025, there were 3 new first - time default issuers. According to the broad default definition, the default amount was 6 billion, and the default rate was 0.01%, with the annualized default rate decreasing significantly compared to previous years. Default entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds, mostly private enterprises. The real - estate bond default rate was 0.2%, and the default scale and annualized default rate decreased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter. The private enterprise default rate was 0.5%, and the annualized default rate continued to decline quarter - on - quarter [24][31]. Recovery Rate Remained Low - In the first three quarters of 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 20.76 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have repaid 124.7 billion in principal, and the repayment rate of overdue principal was 11.9% [34].

Core Viewpoint - "New bond subscription" is a low-threshold, high-yield investment method suitable for beginners, allowing investors to purchase newly issued convertible bonds from listed companies [2][5]. Group 1: Characteristics of New Bonds - Convertible bonds combine debt and equity features, providing a safety net through interest payments and principal repayment, while also offering potential upside through conversion to stock [3][4]. - The main profit model for new bonds is to sell on the first day of listing, with historical data showing profits ranging from tens to hundreds of yuan, and a significant price increase on the listing day [6]. - The entry threshold for participating in new bond subscriptions is low, typically requiring around 1,000 yuan, making it accessible to a wide range of investors [6][7]. Group 2: Subscription Process - Investors need to open a securities account and obtain permission to trade convertible bonds, which requires two years of trading experience and an average asset of 100,000 yuan over 20 days [8]. - The subscription process involves checking new bond issuance information, submitting a subscription request, and confirming the results after a lottery draw [10][12]. - It is advisable to sell on the first day of listing to secure profits, with specific trading timeframes and price limits in place for convertible bonds [15][16]. Group 3: Target Audience - New bonds are particularly suitable for novice investors looking to experience the capital market, low-risk investors seeking stable returns, and those with limited funds wanting to participate without affecting their main investment strategies [20].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **credit market** and **credit risk analysis** in the context of **China's financial environment**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Reevaluation of Credit Strategies**: The current market environment necessitates a reevaluation of credit strategies, as evidenced by the cases of 中航产融 (AVIC Capital) and 万科 (Vanke), highlighting the importance of in-depth credit risk analysis [2][1]. 2. **Integration of Philosophy in Credit Research**: Credit research should combine practical foundations with philosophical thinking, emphasizing the transformation of qualitative insights into a rational analytical framework [3][6]. 3. **Long-term Investment Focus**: Long-term investors must understand the fundamentals of investment subjects, including macroeconomic impacts and policy changes, to establish a systematic analysis framework that combines quantitative and qualitative assessments [1][7]. 4. **Limitations of Existing Default Models**: Existing default models in the Chinese market are not fully applicable and require adjustments based on practical experiences to enhance predictive accuracy [8][9]. 5. **Role of Credit Ratings**: Credit ratings serve as a relative ranking of a company's debt repayment ability rather than complex default probability calculations, aiding investors in understanding relative risk levels [10][14]. 6. **Dynamic Analysis of Local Government Financing**: When analyzing local government financing, it is crucial to understand the dynamic relationship between central and local governments, employing dialectical thinking to assess various influencing factors [11][4]. 7. **Importance of Liquid Assets**: The evaluation of a company's debt repayment ability must focus on cash flow from operational profits, the coverage of liquid assets over debts, and potential external support [17][26]. 8. **Impact of Monetary Policy on Credit Financing**: Credit bond financing is primarily influenced by monetary policy, necessitating close monitoring of issuance policies and macroeconomic monetary policies [9][1]. 9. **Philosophical Thinking in Credit Research**: The application of philosophical thinking in credit research involves understanding the relationship between practice and theory, and the need for continuous verification of conclusions through empirical data [6][3]. 10. **Historical Context of Default Waves**: The historical context of default waves in China reveals different phases, such as the large-scale defaults from 2015 to 2016 due to overcapacity and the subsequent waves affecting private and state-owned enterprises [23][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Challenges in Credit Rating Agencies**: Credit rating agencies often lack unified rating principles, and their results may be influenced by client demands, necessitating a deeper understanding of the underlying principles and strategies [22][4]. 2. **External Support Evaluation**: When a company cannot cover its debts through operational profits and liquid assets, external support becomes critical, and its effectiveness must be assessed based on the willingness and capacity of the parent company [29][30]. 3. **Investment Strategy Adaptation**: Investment strategies must adapt to market changes, considering the behavior of competitors and the execution of internal strategies [38][42]. 4. **Risk Assessment in Local Government Projects**: Evaluating the risks associated with local government leveraging for infrastructure projects requires careful consideration of economic structures and income levels to avoid potential pitfalls [79][80]. 5. **Sector-Specific Recovery Potential**: Certain sectors, such as real estate and consumer goods, may be approaching recovery phases, indicating potential investment opportunities despite previous downturns [73][74]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future considerations in the credit market and investment strategies.