1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. The main reasons were that some hawkish officials opposed continuous interest rate cuts, the probability of continued rate cuts in January was low according to the CME observation tool, the expectation of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike might affect the global foreign exchange carry - trade market, and concerns about the bursting of the AI bubble led to asset selling in the metal market. Domestically, the central economic work conference emphasized flexible use of policies like reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, promoting a new real - estate development model [2][7]. - Overall, concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble in overseas markets on Friday and opposition to rate cuts from some hawkish officials on Thursday made the probability of continuous rate cuts in early next year slim, leading to a decline in market risk appetite. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas concentrates persists, non - US inventories are low, and the artificial intelligence field offers broad demand prospects. It is expected that copper prices will slow their upward momentum and enter a high - level consolidation in the short term [2][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - LME copper price on December 12 was $11,552.50 per ton, down $112.50 (- 0.96%) from December 5. COMEX copper price was 535.84 cents per pound, down 9.56 cents (- 1.75%). SHFE copper price was 94,080 yuan per ton, up 1,300 yuan (1.40%). International copper price was 84,490 yuan per ton, up 1,100 yuan (1.32%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.95 to 8.14. LME spot premium dropped by 10.24% to $20.69 per ton, and Shanghai spot premium fell from 170 yuan to - 20 yuan [3]. - As of December 12, LME copper inventory increased by 3,350 tons (2.06%) to 165,900 tons, COMEX copper inventory increased by 13,765 short tons (3.15%) to 450,618 short tons, SHFE inventory increased by 484 tons (0.54%) to 89,371 tons, and Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,500 tons (5.80%) to 100,300 tons. Total inventory rose by 23,099 tons (2.95%) to 806,189 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed cut interest rates for the last time this year last Thursday, with the federal funds rate range at 3.5% - 3.75%. The dot - plot shows one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027. 7 officials expect no rate cut in 2026, and 4 expect two 25 - basis - point cuts. The probability of no rate cut in January next year is 75% according to the CME tool. Domestically, China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2%. The PPI index was - 2.2% year - on - year but + 0.1% month - on - month [8]. - Supply - demand aspect: In 2026, the production of some overseas mines is expected to be flat with 2025, and the global concentrate supply growth rate will be less than 1.5%. Codelco's premium for 2026 Chinese CIF refined copper long - term contracts reached a record high of $350 per ton. Traditional industry demand is cooling, while emerging industries like new - energy vehicles, AI data centers, and industrial robots offer broad market space [9]. Industry News - Rio2 acquired a 99.1% stake in Peru's Condestable copper mine for $241 million. The mine has a 60 - plus - year production history, with a daily processing capacity of 8,400 tons, and is expected to produce about 27,000 tons of copper equivalent annually [11]. - Anglo American and Teck Resources' shareholders approved a $53 - billion all - stock, zero - premium merger. The combined Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca copper mines may produce over one million tons of copper annually by the early 2030s [12]. - Chile's state - owned Codelco's copper production in October fell 14.3% to 111,000 tons, while BHP's Escondida mine production rose 11.7% to 120,600 tons, and Collahuasi mine production dropped 29.3% to 35,000 tons [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of copper prices, inventories, premiums, spreads, and other indicators, such as the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory changes, and the relationship between copper imports' profit and loss and other factors [17][19][22].

Group 1: Industrial Profit Growth - In September, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 21.6% year-on-year, marking a 1.2 percentage point rise from August [1] - For the first nine months, profits rose by 3.2% year-on-year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points compared to the previous eight months, representing the highest cumulative growth rate since August of last year [1] - The growth is attributed to rapid increases in high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing, along with the impact of a low base effect [1] Group 2: Consumer Electronics and Trade - Over 76 million consumers have purchased over 126 million units of old-for-new home appliances across 12 categories this year [2] - More than 81 million consumers have bought over 88 million digital products, including mobile phones [2] - Nationwide, 87,000 sales outlets have participated in the old-for-new program for electric bicycles, resulting in over 12 million new purchases [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve announced a 0.25 percentage point interest rate cut on September 17, marking its first action in nine months, indicating a potential continuation of rate cuts within the year due to concerns over a slowing job market outweighing inflation worries [1][4]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The interest rate was lowered to a range of 4% to 4.25%, the lowest level in nearly three years, which is expected to provide immediate relief to consumers with credit card debt and small businesses with floating rate debt [2]. - Most officials anticipate further rate cuts in October and December, suggesting a possible phase of consecutive rate reductions, primarily driven by a weakening job market and manageable inflation concerns [4]. Group 2: Impact on EB-5 Investment - The lower interest rates will reduce overall financing costs, alleviating financial pressure on developers and infrastructure projects, particularly benefiting EB-5 investment projects by lowering financial risks and enhancing project stability [7]. - The easing monetary environment is expected to stimulate corporate investment and consumer spending, which will support job creation, aligning with the core requirement of EB-5 projects to generate employment opportunities [7][8]. Group 3: Opportunities for Investors - For Chinese investors, the anticipated continuous rate cuts signal a new phase of economic stimulus in the U.S., with rural EB-5 projects benefiting from priority approvals, additional visa allocations, and enhanced job creation support [8]. - The decline in financing costs for dollar assets is likely to drive capital into the real economy and long-term projects, making rural EB-5 projects a safer investment option for identity planning and asset allocation [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Goolsbee, emphasizes the need for substantial justification before implementing further monetary easing beyond the recent 25 basis point rate cut [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Goolsbee warns against hastily initiating consecutive rate cuts based on the assumption that inflation will naturally decline, as this could lead to policy misjudgments [3]. - The current unemployment rate of 4.3% is considered healthy, and labor market indicators suggest moderate cooling rather than a sharp contraction typical of historical recessions [3]. - The recent adjustment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate to a range of 4% to 4.25% reflects an assessment of trade war impacts, with retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners being less severe than anticipated, resulting in weaker inflationary pressures [3]. Group 2: Political Influence and Economic Predictions - Goolsbee reaffirms the importance of the independence of monetary policy, stating that the Federal Reserve has never altered its standards due to political interference, with professional competence being the primary criterion for reappointment [3]. - Investors generally expect the Federal Reserve to implement two more 25 basis point rate cuts within the year, supported by the latest economic forecasts from the Fed [3]. - Goolsbee expresses caution regarding aggressive easing paths, noting that the Trump administration's trade policies have disrupted the economic environment, which previously seemed to be moving towards neutral interest rates [3]. Group 3: Concerns on Talent Mobility - Goolsbee raises concerns about the proposed significant increase in H-1B visa application fees to $100,000, highlighting the positive correlation between high-skilled talent mobility and technological innovation, as well as productivity growth [4]. - He warns that restricting the influx of scientific talent could lead to insufficient productivity growth in the long term [4]. Group 4: Employment Data Risks - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman identifies potential risks in current employment data, suggesting that moderate rate cuts may be necessary to prevent sudden deterioration in the labor market [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the Bank of England will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in its upcoming meeting, indicating a shift towards a more dovish stance within the committee [1] Group 1 - At least two members of the Bank of England's committee are expected to support a 50 basis point rate cut, reflecting an increase in dovish sentiment [1] - The policy guidance language is expected to change, with the term "gradual" likely to be removed, paving the way for consecutive rate cuts [1] - Morgan Stanley projects that the Bank of England's interest rate will decrease from the current 4.50% to 3.25% by the end of 2025 [1]