Core Insights - High dividend assets are showing strong cost-effectiveness, with coal prices expected to recover from their bottom range [1][4][12] Group 1: Dividend Assets - The shift in residents' wealth from real estate to securities has been noted, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining low and capital gains uncertain. If CPI/PPI rises, the cost-effectiveness of allocations may further decline. However, dividend assets maintain a dividend yield that is above the mean and one standard deviation, indicating long-term allocation value [4][12] - Economic stabilization and recovery could lead to growth in the earnings of dividend assets, potentially resulting in higher returns [4][12] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal mining sector is experiencing rigid supply with limited growth in new capacity. Policies are being implemented to stabilize the market and curb overproduction, which supports a gradual recovery in coal prices. Steady growth in electricity demand is also contributing to this recovery [4][12] - Future attention may be directed towards non-electric coal usage, particularly focusing on leading companies in thermal coal that exhibit high dividends, profitability, and cash flow, as well as coking coal enterprises with high marketization and supply elasticity [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include coal mining (5.89%), white goods (5.29%), rural commercial banks (4.84%), joint-stock banks (4.77%), and city commercial banks (4.61%) [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures, particularly in coking coal and polysilicon, is driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment influenced by policies aimed at reducing competition and production costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures have seen a significant price increase, with a 73% rise from June 3 to July 25, attributed to a tightening supply-demand balance and reduced domestic supply due to environmental regulations [1][2]. - The current demand for coking coal remains resilient, supported by high iron production levels and a notable increase in purchasing activity from downstream steel mills and coking enterprises [3][7]. - As of July 24, the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal has risen from 700 CNY/ton to approximately 950-1000 CNY/ton, reflecting a substantial increase in both spot and futures prices [3]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have surged by 56% from July 1 to July 25, driven by macroeconomic factors and increased market optimism following policy signals aimed at reducing competition [4][5]. - The rising prices of coal are expected to increase electricity costs for high-energy-consuming industries, further impacting the production costs of polysilicon and industrial silicon [4][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised its forecast for new photovoltaic installations in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the polysilicon market [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - As of July 25, the inventory levels for domestic photovoltaic glass have decreased significantly, attributed to increased procurement by component manufacturers [6]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term, with ongoing monitoring of coal mine production and regulatory impacts on supply [8]. - The potential increase in imports of Australian coking coal is anticipated, which could further influence the domestic supply landscape [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with expectations of continued price increases in both coking coal and polysilicon, although caution is advised due to the rapid pace of price increases [7][9]. - The focus for future price movements will be on the actual implementation of macroeconomic policies, supply chain adjustments, and the willingness of downstream markets to absorb higher prices [8][9].