Core Viewpoint - A new wave of price increases is anticipated across various industries, driven by factors such as supply reduction, wage increases, and government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand [1][5][30]. Group 1: Price Increases in Various Industries - McDonald's will raise prices on several menu items by 0.5-1 yuan starting December 15, 2025 [2]. - Moutai's wholesale prices for all products have increased, with the 25-year Flying Moutai rising by 40 yuan to 1600 yuan per bottle, and the Zodiac Snake variant surging by 230 yuan to 2000 yuan per bottle [3]. - SMIC has implemented a price increase of approximately 10% on certain production capacities, particularly focusing on the 8-inch BCD process platform [4]. - Major global shipping companies, including MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, have announced plans to adjust freight rates starting January 1, 2026, including seasonal surcharges [4]. - Smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, OPPO, vivo, and Honor have raised prices on new models by 100 to 600 yuan compared to previous generations since October [5]. Group 2: Reasons Behind Price Increases - Price increases are partly a response to policies aimed at reducing overcapacity and promoting quality over quantity in production, as seen in industries like Moutai and SMIC [5][6]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen from 92,800 yuan per ton to 104,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a monthly increase of over 13%, driven by production cuts from leading companies [6]. - The government has emphasized the need to stimulate domestic demand by increasing residents' income, which may lead to higher wages and consequently higher prices [6][7]. Group 3: Economic Outlook and Market Trends - The expectation is that inflation will become the main theme moving forward, with CPI gradually rising as the economy recovers from deflation [28][45]. - Monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts, are anticipated to continue, providing a basis for inflation as liquidity increases in the market [34][40]. - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market due to improved regulations, increased long-term capital inflows, and enhanced liquidity [41][43]. - As capital markets stabilize and residents' financial conditions improve, consumer spending is likely to increase, further driving price rises across various sectors [42][44].

Core Insights - High dividend assets are showing strong cost-effectiveness, with coal prices expected to recover from their bottom range [1][4][12] Group 1: Dividend Assets - The shift in residents' wealth from real estate to securities has been noted, with the 10-year government bond yield remaining low and capital gains uncertain. If CPI/PPI rises, the cost-effectiveness of allocations may further decline. However, dividend assets maintain a dividend yield that is above the mean and one standard deviation, indicating long-term allocation value [4][12] - Economic stabilization and recovery could lead to growth in the earnings of dividend assets, potentially resulting in higher returns [4][12] Group 2: Coal Industry - The coal mining sector is experiencing rigid supply with limited growth in new capacity. Policies are being implemented to stabilize the market and curb overproduction, which supports a gradual recovery in coal prices. Steady growth in electricity demand is also contributing to this recovery [4][12] - Future attention may be directed towards non-electric coal usage, particularly focusing on leading companies in thermal coal that exhibit high dividends, profitability, and cash flow, as well as coking coal enterprises with high marketization and supply elasticity [4][12] Group 3: Dividend Yield Rankings - The top five sectors by dividend yield over the past 12 months include coal mining (5.89%), white goods (5.29%), rural commercial banks (4.84%), joint-stock banks (4.77%), and city commercial banks (4.61%) [5][13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in commodity futures, particularly in coking coal and polysilicon, is driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and market sentiment influenced by policies aimed at reducing competition and production costs [1][2][4]. Group 1: Coking Coal Market Dynamics - Coking coal futures have seen a significant price increase, with a 73% rise from June 3 to July 25, attributed to a tightening supply-demand balance and reduced domestic supply due to environmental regulations [1][2]. - The current demand for coking coal remains resilient, supported by high iron production levels and a notable increase in purchasing activity from downstream steel mills and coking enterprises [3][7]. - As of July 24, the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal has risen from 700 CNY/ton to approximately 950-1000 CNY/ton, reflecting a substantial increase in both spot and futures prices [3]. Group 2: Polysilicon Market Trends - Polysilicon futures have surged by 56% from July 1 to July 25, driven by macroeconomic factors and increased market optimism following policy signals aimed at reducing competition [4][5]. - The rising prices of coal are expected to increase electricity costs for high-energy-consuming industries, further impacting the production costs of polysilicon and industrial silicon [4][5]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has raised its forecast for new photovoltaic installations in 2025, indicating a positive outlook for the polysilicon market [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Supply Chain Insights - As of July 25, the inventory levels for domestic photovoltaic glass have decreased significantly, attributed to increased procurement by component manufacturers [6]. - The supply of coking coal is expected to remain tight in the short term, with ongoing monitoring of coal mine production and regulatory impacts on supply [8]. - The potential increase in imports of Australian coking coal is anticipated, which could further influence the domestic supply landscape [8]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish, with expectations of continued price increases in both coking coal and polysilicon, although caution is advised due to the rapid pace of price increases [7][9]. - The focus for future price movements will be on the actual implementation of macroeconomic policies, supply chain adjustments, and the willingness of downstream markets to absorb higher prices [8][9].