Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut this year, totaling a reduction of 175 basis points since September of the previous year [2] - The Fed's dot plot indicates an expectation of one more 25 basis point rate cut next year, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of rate cuts compared to this year [2] - There is significant dissent among Fed officials regarding the rate cut, with concerns about stagnant inflation and a cooling job market [2] Group 2 - The global interest rate environment is fundamentally changing, with many economies potentially shifting from a rate-cutting phase to a rate-hiking phase, as evidenced by Australia's recent decision to maintain its cash rate at 3.60% due to resilient domestic demand [3] - Australia's CPI for October rose to 3.8%, exceeding previous values and market expectations, driven by strong consumer spending and government investment [3][4] - Canada is following a similar trend, with its central bank maintaining a benchmark rate of 2.25% while strong employment and GDP data suggest a potential shift towards rate hikes [4] Group 3 - Japan is currently the only developed economy in a rate-hiking phase, having announced a rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% to address domestic inflation pressures [5] - Japan's rate hike could significantly impact global liquidity, as it is a major provider of funds in the global market [5] Group 4 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to shift its monetary policy, with President Lagarde indicating an upward revision of economic growth forecasts for the Eurozone [6] - The Eurozone's economy grew by 0.2% in the third quarter, driven by increased investment in digital services, leading to a slight increase in market expectations for ECB rate hikes [7] - Long-term bond yields in Europe have surged, with significant increases in yields for UK, German, and French bonds, reflecting concerns over fiscal conditions and rising military expenditures due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [7]

Group 1 - The IMF projects Turkey's inflation to decrease to 33% by the end of 2025, down from nearly 50% at the end of 2024, aligning with the central bank's forecasts [1][2] - Turkey's inflation rate fell to 32.87% in October, but remains high, prompting the central bank to adjust its year-end inflation forecast from 25%-29% to 31%-33% [2] - The IMF emphasizes the need for Turkey to tighten fiscal and monetary policies further, including raising real policy rates and delaying interest rate cuts to ensure sustained inflation decline [2][3] Group 2 - The IMF acknowledges Turkey's fiscal consolidation efforts, projecting the budget deficit to decrease from 4.7% of GDP in 2024 to 3.6% in 2023, with a slight increase to 3.7% by 2026 [2] - Structural reforms are deemed essential for Turkey to achieve higher potential growth, with the IMF highlighting the importance of enhancing productivity and reducing external vulnerabilities [1][3] - The Turkish banking system remains robust, with adequate capital and liquidity levels, and the exit from the foreign exchange-protected deposit mechanism indicates a shift towards more market-oriented macroeconomic policies [3]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes indicate a divided stance among policymakers regarding interest rate cuts, with a focus on upcoming U.S. economic data to guide future decisions [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates despite warnings that lowering borrowing costs could impact inflation management, which has been above the 2% target for four and a half years [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that a rate cut in December is "not a done deal," highlighting the uncertainty surrounding future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of the meeting minutes, gold prices retraced some gains as market participants shifted their attention to forthcoming U.S. economic data for clues on the interest rate path [1] - According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 30% probability to a rate cut in December [1]

Group 1 - Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, believes that cooling inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to initiate two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially starting in September [1] - Kashkari warns that tariffs may soon push inflation higher as more goods from Asia, facing significant tariff increases, enter U.S. markets [1] - Current economic data shows that the impact of tariffs on prices, economic activity, or the labor market remains moderate, indicating that businesses may have adjusted supply chains or received tariff exemptions [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the overnight interbank lending target rate at 4.25%-4.5%, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook due to tariffs potentially raising inflation while suppressing growth and employment [2]