Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - Today, the pulp and offset paper futures prices are consolidating with a slight downward trend, which is in line with previous expectations. Pulp spot prices are relatively stable after a general decline last Friday. Affected by negative macro - sentiment and a 10.2 - ton increase in port inventory, the futures prices are still slightly down, but supported by the shutdown of some pulp mills. Offset paper spot prices are also stable and in a range - bound state. In the short term, both pulp and offset paper are expected to maintain a volatile trend with a slightly lower price center [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.88% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.74%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.10% and a historical percentile of 48.83% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) worried about price drops, strategies include short - selling pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5500 - 5600 and 4350 - 4400 respectively, and selling call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, strategies include buying pulp/offset paper futures (SP2601, OP2601) at 25% hedge ratio in the ranges of 5150 - 5250 and 4100 - 4150 respectively, and selling put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) at 25% hedge ratio when volatility is appropriate [2]. Strategy Recommendations - **Pulp**: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [5]. - **Offset Paper**: In the futures market, short - sell on rallies in the short - term. In the options market, stay on the sidelines for now [6]. Market Factors - **Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and pulp spot prices have generally declined [7][8]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 17, 2025, SP11 closed at 4890 with a daily decline of 0.79% and a weekly increase of 0.57%. OP01 closed at 4260 with a daily decline of 0.85% and a weekly decline of 1.25%. There are also various inter - contract spreads provided [13]. - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: On November 17, 2025, the pulp spot price in Shandong was 5483, in South China was 5870, and in the Yangtze River Delta was 5621. On November 14, 2025, the double - offset paper spot price in Shandong was 4750, in Guangdong was 4850, and in Jiangsu was 4750. Regional price differences are also provided [14]. Basis Data - **Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in pulp basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Yinxing - SP11 was 660 on November 12, 2025, with a daily decline of 2 and a weekly increase of 46 [8]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in offset paper basis for different regions and contracts are provided, such as the basis of Shandong Chenming - OP01 was 490 on November 17, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly increase of 54 [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp and offset paper futures prices are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating trend in the short term, with the price center slightly shifting downward [3]. - For paper pulp, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread, while the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. - For offset paper, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term, and the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.62%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.72% and a historical percentile of 50.00% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When the inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) is high and there are concerns about price drops, recommend shorting paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Also, sell call options to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises unexpectedly [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the inventory of paper - making enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, recommend buying paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price first dropped significantly and then rebounded. The spot price fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, the US government shutdown had a negative macro - impact, and port inventory increased by 10.2 tons. However, the shutdown of some pulp mills provided some support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper futures price declined due to the price reaching a high and then correcting, and the lack of fundamental support for the previous price increase, along with insufficient market confidence [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and paper pulp spot prices have generally fallen [11]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On November 14, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of paper pulp (SP) and offset printing paper (OP) futures and their spreads are provided, showing daily and weekly fluctuations [14]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of paper pulp and double - offset paper on November 13 and 14, 2025, respectively, are presented, with some prices remaining unchanged and showing certain regional differences [15]. Basis Data - **Paper Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of paper pulp on November 12, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are shown for different varieties and contracts [7]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of offset paper on November 14, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are provided for different contracts [7].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Paper Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Paper pulp price range (monthly): 4750 - 5600, current volatility: 9.14%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 5.86% [2] - Offset printing paper price range (monthly): 4150 - 4350, current volatility: 8.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 50.00% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5500 - 5600, OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) and sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) [2] Procurement Management - For low inventory, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5150 - 5250, OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) and sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Paper Pulp - Futures and spot prices: Futures show high - level oscillation, spot price is stable [3] - Supply - demand factors: Supply pressure reduces due to Maine pulp mill's temporary shutdown; demand is relatively negative in the short - term but overall demand recovers; port inventory is high, and its support is limited [3] Offset Printing Paper - Futures and spot prices: Spot price is stable after previous increases, futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [3] - Supply - demand factors: Market is in the cost - support stage, paper enterprises issued price - increase letters, but spot demand is weak, and the shutdown events have little impact [3] - Short - term trend: Both pulp and offset printing paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward central price [3] Group 4: Strategies Paper Pulp - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices and focus on 12 - 01 backwardation [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [5] Offset Printing Paper - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [6] Group 5: Market Factors Bullish Factors - Paper enterprises and pulp mills raise quotes [10] - Tariffs on the US remain [10] - US Magnolia pulp mill's temporary shutdown [10] Bearish Factors - Overseas shipping costs may decrease [10] - High - level port inventory is difficult to deplete [10] - Four major paper enterprises issued shutdown announcements [10] Group 6: Price and Inventory Data Price Data - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices, price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [13] - Pulp and double - offset paper spot prices, regional price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [14] Inventory Data - Pulp inventory in China (weekly) [11] - Pulp inventory warehouse receipts [15] Group 7: Basis Data - Pulp basis daily changes and seasonal data [8][9] - Offset printing paper basis daily changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures prices showed a wide - range oscillation, while offset paper futures prices opened with a significant increase and then maintained an oscillation. In the spot market, pulp prices in some paper mills increased slightly, and the supply - side pressure eased due to partial mill maintenance. The downstream paper - using开工率 (operating rates) showed mixed trends, and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive year - on - year growth in August. Port inventories remained relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, some companies raised their quotes, which was favorable for futures prices. Overall, pulp and offset paper may be relatively oscillatory or slightly bullish in the short term [4]. - For pulp, the strategy is to go long at low prices or wait and see in the futures market, and sell out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts in the options market. For offset paper, it is recommended to wait and see in both the futures and options markets [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pulp is predicted to be 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.19% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 16.95%. For offset paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 7.96% and a historical percentile of 39.39% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 5400 - 5500 and OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (e.g., SP2601C5300 and OP2601C4400) when volatility is appropriate to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, they can buy pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 4950 - 5050 and OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (e.g., SP2512P4850 and OP2601P4050) when volatility is appropriate to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - **Futures Price Movement**: Pulp futures prices oscillated widely, and offset paper futures prices opened higher and then oscillated [4]. - **Spot Price**: Pulp spot prices in some regions increased by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, and some offset paper companies raised their quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure eased due to mill maintenance, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends, cultural paper consumption did not continue the growth in August, and port inventories were relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some companies were favorable for futures prices, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Paper companies raised the quotes of various types of paper, the Fed has a rate - cut expectation, and overseas broad - leaf pulp production shifted, reduced, and prices rose [7][12] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - There is a possibility of a decrease in overseas shipping costs, port inventories are high and difficult to reduce, and downstream demand is weak during the peak season [12] 3.5 Basis and Price Difference - **Pulp Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in pulp basis for different varieties and contracts are provided, and the seasonal chart of pulp basis (Shandong Yinxing) is also presented [9][10]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in offset paper basis for different contracts are provided [9][10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and price differences of pulp and offset paper futures contracts are given [15]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of pulp and offset paper are provided [16].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the world's first cultural paper futures options, specifically the胶版印刷纸期货期权, marks a significant milestone in China's paper industry risk management and supports the green and low-carbon transformation of the sector [2]. Group 1: Market Impact - The introduction of胶版印刷纸期货 and期权 is expected to enhance price transparency, continuity, and public accessibility, providing better market references and risk management tools for production companies and end customers [2]. - The new financial derivatives will create a linkage with pulp futures, increasing operational flexibility and cost control for companies within the industry [2]. Group 2: Company Involvement - 建发股份 has actively participated in the initial trading of胶版印刷纸期货 and期权, demonstrating its commitment to the futures market [2]. - The company has established a comprehensive delivery network, with its subsidiaries receiving approval for胶版印刷纸期货 delivery warehouses and delivery factory qualifications [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - 建发股份 aims to maintain a "professional, efficient, and stable" operational philosophy, ensuring the safe, standardized, and efficient operation of delivery services while promoting the prosperity of the pulp and paper futures market [3].