"十四五"时期，面对复杂严峻的国内外经济形势，期货市场扛起服务实体经济的责任担当，精准对接国 家战略，深度融入产业链，为实体经济稳健运行保驾护航。从广袤的田野到现代化工园区，从能源基地 到高科技生产线，期现结合的实践遍地开花，结出丰硕成果，践行了"护实体远行"的使命。 在新湖期货总经理金玉卫看来，"保险+期货"模式已成为金融机构服务乡村产业的重要切入点，成为金 融服务乡村全面振兴的有效途径之一。 尿素被誉为"粮食的粮食"，我国高度重视尿素市场供应及市场价格稳定。郑商所锚定化肥"常年生产、 季节使用"的行业痛点，于2021年创新推出"商储无忧"项目，支持承储企业利用尿素期货管理储备期间 的价格下跌风险。5年来，该项目累计为99家次企业的495万吨尿素提供风险管理支持，有效保障了23个 省份的春耕生产用肥需求。目前，已有近90%的尿素贸易龙头企业参与"商储无忧"项目。 "双碳"目标下，绿色转型需要政策引导，更需要"市场之手"助力。国内期货交易所在陆续推出绿色期货 品种的同时，将服务延伸至绿色低碳领域。 "十四五"期间，上期所推出再生金属衍生品——铸造铝合金期货和期权，加快推进液化天然气（LNG） 期货和期权研发上 ...

联系人：王竣冬 期货从业资格：F3024685 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 研究咨询电话： 0531-81678626 客服电话： 400-618-6767 公司网址： www.ztqh.com [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 12 月 9 日 [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/9 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | 胶版印刷纸 | 焦煤 | 多晶硅 | 红枣 | | | | 焦炭 | 液化石油气 | | | | | 瓶片 | 中证500股指期货 | | | | | 短纤 | 铅 | | | | | PTA | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 乙二醇 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 玉米 | 锌 | | | | | 橡胶 | 上证50股指期货 | | | | | 尿 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends. For example, gold's降息预期回升, and silver is加速冲刺，再创新高. Copper's price is supported by strong spot prices, while zinc has support at the lower level. Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction, and tin's supply is disrupted again [2][6][10]. - The market for some commodities is in a state of wide - range oscillation, such as iron ore, whose downstream demand space is limited and valuation is high;螺纹钢 and热轧卷板 are experiencing a multi - empty game in the market and wide - range oscillations [2][42][45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: With the recovery of interest - rate cut expectations, the prices of沪金2512 and黄金T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: It is accelerating and hitting new highs. The prices of沪银2512 and白银T+D rose significantly, with daily increases of 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price is strong, supporting the price. The沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.40% yesterday. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend intensity is 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level. The沪锌主力收盘价 increased by 0.69% yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The沪铅主力收盘价 rose by 0.79% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The沪锡主力合约 increased by 0.50% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The氧化铝 is still searching for the bottom, and the铸造铝合金 follows the electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. - **Platinum**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with the possibility of an upward movement. The trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals limit the upward elasticity, and it is in a low - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: With high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downward space, it is in an oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is weak, and the high - level oscillation continues. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1 [39]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration. The trend intensity is 0 [39]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend intensity is - 1 [42]. - **Rebar**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Manganese Silicide**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range - bound operations for the time being [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it is mainly in an oscillation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a lack of new sales, and US soybeans continue to fall, leading to an adjustment in the continuous contract. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [5]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation [5]. - **Sugar**: India's sugar production has increased significantly [5]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong [5]. - **Egg**: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong [5]. - **Live Pig**: An increase in supply is coming, and the industrial logic is returning [5]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot price [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [2][5] - Silver: Accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [2][5] - Copper: Tight supply expectations lead to price increases [2][10] - Zinc: Supply cuts result in a volatile and bullish trend [2][13] - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2][16] - Tin: Supply is disrupted again [2][20] - Aluminum: Strong performance [2][24] - Alumina: Consolidating at the bottom [2][24] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][24] - Platinum: Volatile upward trend [2][27] - Palladium: Sideways consolidation [2][28] - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [2][31] - Stainless steel: High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [2][31] - Lithium carbonate: Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [2][36] - Industrial silicon: Volatile and bearish [2][39] - Polysilicon: The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [2][39] - Iron ore: Limited downstream demand and over - valued [2][42] - Rebar: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][46] - Hot - rolled coil: Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [2][47] - Ferrosilicon: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Silicomanganese: Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [2][51] - Coke: Wide - range volatility [2][55] - Coking coal: Wide - range volatility [2][56] - Logs: Low - level volatility [2][58] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Gold: The closing price of SHFE gold 2512 was 959.64, up 1.05%; the night - session closing price was 964.72, up 0.66%. The trend strength is 1. Expectations of interest rate cuts have rebounded [5] - Silver: The closing price of SHFE silver 2512 was 13282, up 4.46%; the night - session closing price was 13766.00, up 5.08%. The trend strength is 1. It is accelerating the upward trend and reaching a new high [5] Copper - The closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 89,280, up 2.12%; the night - session closing price was 89380, up 0.11%. The trend strength is 1. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026 [10][12] Zinc - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22590, up 0.74%. The trend strength is 1. Supply cuts lead to a volatile and bullish trend [13] Lead - The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17075, down 0.09%. The trend strength is 0. Reduced inventory supports prices [16] Tin - The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 306,580, up 0.50%; the night - session closing price was 306,890, down 0.27%. The trend strength is 0. Supply is disrupted again [20] Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 21865. The trend strength is 1. Strong performance [24] - Alumina: The closing price of SHFE alumina main contract was 2677. The trend strength is 0. Consolidating at the bottom [24] - Cast aluminum alloy: The closing price of the main contract was 21055. The trend strength is 1. Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [24] Platinum and Palladium - Platinum: The trend strength is 1. Volatile upward trend [27][29] - Palladium: The trend strength is 0. Sideways consolidation [28][29] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 117,850. The trend strength is 0. Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, with low - level volatility [31] - Stainless steel: The closing price of the main contract was 12,445. The trend strength is 0. High inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limits the downside [31] Lithium Carbonate - The closing price of the 2601 contract was 95,120. The trend strength is 0. Ore prices are rising steadily, with range - bound fluctuations [36] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: The closing price of Si2601 was 9,145. The trend strength is - 1. Volatile and bearish [39] - Polysilicon: The closing price of PS2601 was 57,705. The trend strength is - 2. The exchange restricts new positions, sentiment cools, and the market may face a significant decline [39] Iron Ore - The closing price of the 12601 contract was 801.0, up 0.88%. The trend strength is 0. Limited downstream demand and over - valued [43] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,134, up 1.16%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of HC2601 was 3,327, up 1.03%. The trend strength is 0. Strong commodity sentiment leads to a bullish and volatile trend [47] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon: The closing price of the 2603 contract was 5466. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] - Silicomanganese: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 5724. The trend strength is 0. Sector sentiment drives a volatile and bullish trend [51] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: The closing price of J2601 was 1619.5, up 2.9%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] - Coking coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1093, up 2.4%. The trend strength is 0. Wide - range volatility [56] Logs - Logs: Low - level volatility [58]

Core Viewpoint - The first comprehensive ranking of global futures exchanges has been released by Fudan University, highlighting the rapid growth of China's commodity trading scale and the narrowing gap between domestic exchanges and global leaders, with the Shanghai Futures Exchange emerging as a key player [1][5]. Group 1: Ranking and Evaluation System - The ranking is based on a newly developed comprehensive evaluation index system that includes multiple dimensions such as functional performance, governance performance, and macro performance [1][2]. - The evaluation covers 16 established and influential futures exchanges globally, with a focus on the period from 2016 to 2025 [2]. - The top three exchanges in the 2025 ranking are the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group, Intercontinental Exchange, and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing [2]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Market Trends - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched several innovative futures products, including the first domestic recycled metal futures and the world's first cultural paper futures, expanding its offerings to 25 futures and 18 options products across various sectors [2][3]. - The global commodity futures exchange industry is experiencing significant growth, with a more than 60% increase in trading volume over the past five years and an annual compound growth rate exceeding 10% [3]. - The trend towards innovation is driven by the global shift towards green and low-carbon economies, prompting exchanges to focus on new technologies and energy developments [3]. Group 3: Risk Management and Future Recommendations - The unique regulatory framework of China's futures exchanges has effectively mitigated price volatility, providing stable price signals and demonstrating robust operational advantages [3]. - Future recommendations for the Shanghai Futures Exchange include accelerating the launch of more international products, simplifying participation processes for foreign investors, and enhancing the global promotion of "Shanghai prices" to improve competitiveness [4].

Report Date - The report is dated November 17, 2025 [1][5][9] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides daily views and strategies for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., analyzing the current trends and potential risks of each commodity [2][4] Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] - **Silver**: Reached a new high, with a trend strength of 1 [2][5][7] Base Metals - **Copper**: LME inventory reduction supports prices, with a trend strength of 0. The US included copper in the new critical minerals list, and Peru's copper production increased year - on - year [2][9][11] - **Zinc**: Rangeside trading, with a trend strength of 0. US economic data release schedule and Fed's stance on interest rate cuts are key factors [2][12][14] - **Lead**: Domestic inventory increase pressures prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15][16] - **Tin**: Pulled back from high levels, with a trend strength of 1 [2][18][23] - **Aluminum**: Short - term pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Alumina still faces fundamental pressure, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24][27] - **Nickel**: Nickel prices broke through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0. Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0. Indonesia's mining policies and China's subsidy suspension impact the market [2][28][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: High - level oscillation, pay attention to the risk of weakening demand month - on - month, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and there is still support at the bottom, with a trend strength of 1. Polysilicon: Pay attention to the meeting situation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][37][40] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][42][44] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46][49] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silico - Manganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][50][54] - **Coke**: Followed the correction, with a trend strength of 0. Coking Coal: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and valuation has declined, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55][57] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58][61] Others - **LPG**: Downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [4] - **Propylene**: Demand expectations have improved, and it is in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **PVC**: Still under pressure in the trend [4] - **Fuel Oil**: Weak oscillation, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. Low - sulfur fuel oil: Slight rebound [4] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 02 contract will fill the discount in the short term and be in an oscillating market in the medium term [4] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Upstream fluctuations have increased, and they are in a short - term strong - side oscillation [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas gasoline blending has started, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillation [4] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term negatives have been fully priced in, pay attention to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [4] - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of drivers from the US soybean side, oscillating [4] - **Soybean Meal**: The US agricultural report has no excessive positive factors, and it may follow the decline of US soybeans [4] - **Soybean No.1**: May adjust following the soybean market [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating [4] - **Sugar**: Range consolidation [4] - **Cotton**: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses futures prices [4] - **Egg**: Near - term contracts are weak, and far - term contracts are strong [4] - **Live Pig**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has weakened, and the expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed [4] - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot market [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp and offset paper futures prices are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating trend in the short term, with the price center slightly shifting downward [3]. - For paper pulp, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread, while the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. - For offset paper, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term, and the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.62%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.72% and a historical percentile of 50.00% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When the inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) is high and there are concerns about price drops, recommend shorting paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Also, sell call options to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises unexpectedly [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the inventory of paper - making enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, recommend buying paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price first dropped significantly and then rebounded. The spot price fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, the US government shutdown had a negative macro - impact, and port inventory increased by 10.2 tons. However, the shutdown of some pulp mills provided some support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper futures price declined due to the price reaching a high and then correcting, and the lack of fundamental support for the previous price increase, along with insufficient market confidence [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and paper pulp spot prices have generally fallen [11]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On November 14, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of paper pulp (SP) and offset printing paper (OP) futures and their spreads are provided, showing daily and weekly fluctuations [14]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of paper pulp and double - offset paper on November 13 and 14, 2025, respectively, are presented, with some prices remaining unchanged and showing certain regional differences [15]. Basis Data - **Paper Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of paper pulp on November 12, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are shown for different varieties and contracts [7]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of offset paper on November 14, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are provided for different contracts [7].

Core Viewpoint - The futures market for coated printing paper is experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to 4302.00 yuan, a decrease of 0.28% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Galaxy Futures indicates that the supply of coated printing paper is under pressure, while the market is generally stabilizing. The supply side has seen a slight increase in production due to new sample production lines, but demand remains weak with sporadic publishing tenders and flat social orders. This has led to constrained profitability in the industry, and while there has not been a large-scale production cut, the production enthusiasm among companies is suppressed, limiting the upward valuation space. Short-term valuations are expected to stabilize weakly, awaiting concentrated demand orders or signals of active supply contraction to break the deadlock [1][1][1] - New Century Futures anticipates that the price of double-coated paper will remain volatile. The previous trading day saw stable prices in the spot market, but supply pressure for double-coated paper persists. Production has rebounded compared to the previous week, and publishing tenders are gradually starting, yet market expectations remain cautious. Additionally, low profit margins for paper prices have resulted in low enthusiasm for high-priced inventory procurement. Therefore, price fluctuations are expected to continue [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a weak performance, with the main contract trading at 20,815.0 CNY/ton, down 0.72% as of November 5 [1] Market Summary - The average price of ADC12 in major domestic regions decreased by 75 CNY/ton, with relatively low transaction volumes, while imported ADC12 prices remained stable, indicating a stalemate between bulls and bears [2] - As of November 5, the total social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi was 49,895 tons, a decrease of 136 tons from the previous trading day but an increase of 1,430 tons compared to the previous week [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from November 10, 2025, the trading fees for casting aluminum alloy futures and offset printing paper futures will be adjusted to 0.0005 of the transaction amount, with no fees for intra-day closing positions [2] Institutional Perspectives - Yide Futures noted that profits have turned negative, and with tight supply of scrap aluminum, there is an expectation of reduced supply; however, the automotive sector is still in a growth phase, maintaining expectations for strong seasonal demand [3] - Ruida Futures observed that the main contract for casting aluminum is showing weak fluctuations, with tight supply of scrap aluminum supporting costs; the domestic casting aluminum production growth may slow due to tight scrap supply, while demand is supported by recovery in the economy and increased consumption expectations in the automotive and motorcycle sectors [3] - Overall, the casting aluminum alloy market is expected to face a scenario of slowing supply and rising demand, with recommendations for light trading and careful risk management [3]

1. Macro Data Overview - GDP in Q3 2025 grew by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the Manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - The Non-manufacturing PMI: Business Activity in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, M1 and M2 increased by 7.2% and 8.4% year-on-year respectively, up from 6.0% and 8.8% in the previous month and -3.3% and 6.8% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year-on-year respectively, up from 4.3% and 1.2% in the previous month and 2.33% and 0.13% in the same period last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China hopes the Netherlands will stop interfering in corporate affairs and find a constructive solution to the Nexperia issue [2] - In October 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.7%, down 0.5 percentage points month-on-month, but still in the expansion range [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust trading margins and price limits for alumina futures from November 7 [3] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to adjust the coking coal delivery quality standards [3] - On November 4, 44 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 25 had negative basis [4] 2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally closed lower due to increased market uncertainty [5] - After the implementation of the "Announcement", the price of pure gold jewelry per gram in multiple brands increased by 60 - 70 yuan [5] - As of November 4, the gold holdings of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.30% from the previous trading day [5] - Codelco expects its copper production in 2025 to be 1.31 - 1.34 million tons, lower than the previous estimate [5] 2.3 Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals - As of late October, the price of coking coal (main coking coal) increased by 3.95% month-on-month, reaching a new high since early December 2024 [7] - As of late October, the prices of all coal types in the national circulation field increased, with Shanxi Datun (Q5000) leading the increase [8] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - The National Development and Reform Commission is paying close attention to the supply, demand, and price of natural gas during the heating season [9] - Canada may adjust its climate change policy, potentially abandoning the emission cap for the oil and gas industry [9] - Oman LNG and Spain's Naturgy signed a memorandum of understanding to explore a long-term LNG supply agreement [9] - Saudi Aramco expects global oil demand to reach 106 million barrels per day in 2025 and remain strong in 2026 [10] 2.5 Agricultural Products - As of late October, most agricultural product prices in the national circulation field increased, with live pigs (outside ternary) leading the increase [12] - As of November 2, the EU's soybean imports in the 2025/2026 period were 3.81 million tons, lower than the same period last year [12] - US soybean exports have decreased significantly, with exports to China in the first eight months of 2025 being only about 5.93 million tons [12] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - The central bank resumed treasury bond trading in October, with a net investment of 20 billion yuan [13] - On November 5, the central bank conducted a 700-billion-yuan 3-month outright reverse repurchase operation, an equal-volume rollover [13] - On November 4, the central bank conducted a 117.5-billion-yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 357.8 billion yuan [14] 3.2 Important News - China will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of enterprises and stabilize the global semiconductor supply chain [15] - China and Russia will expand mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [15] - China welcomes Goldman Sachs to continue investing in China [15] - The central bank will adjust monetary policy according to the economic and financial situation [16] - The CSRC will introduce more opening-up measures to enhance the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings [17] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's service trade imports and exports totaled 5.93622 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [17] - The US federal government will continue to be shut down, and the current shutdown is about to set a new record [18] - The default rate of US office CMBS in October reached 11.8%, exceeding the peak during the 2008 financial crisis [19] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - China's bond market was weak and volatile, with most interest rate bond yields rising slightly [21] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed down 0.67% at 482.64 points, with a trading volume of 56.274 billion yuan [22] - The yields of European and US bonds generally declined [24][25] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1233 against the US dollar, down 8 points from the previous trading day [26] - The US dollar index rose 0.34% to 100.21 in late New York trading [26] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - The Fed will end its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [27] - Under the background of the "Southbound Connect" expansion, "Fixed Income +" products can allocate dim sum bonds and Chinese dollar bonds [27] - The "first-order inflection point" of the real estate market has appeared, and the absolute value may stabilize in 2026 at the earliest [28] 4. Stock Market News - The CSRC will introduce more opening-up measures to enhance the quality and efficiency of overseas listing filings [30] - The A-share market adjusted with reduced volume, with more than 3,600 stocks falling [30] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closed down 0.79%, and the Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$9.832 billion [31] - In October, the number of new A-share accounts opened was 2.31 million, a year-on-year decrease of 66% [31] - Since the beginning of this year, Southbound funds have had a cumulative net inflow of over HK$1.27 trillion, setting a new annual record [31] - Since October, well-known foreign institutions have surveyed 309 A-share listed companies [32] - Brokerage institutions expect the fundamentals of the Hong Kong stock market to improve in 2026 [32]