2026年03月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：现货贴水收窄，限制价格回落 | 5 | | 锌：区间震荡 | 7 | | 铅：海外库存减少，限制价格回落 | 9 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 10 | | 铝：小幅回调 | 11 | | 氧化铝：横盘震荡 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：持续疲软 | 13 | | 钯：高频数据低迷，低位震荡 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：短期市场情绪扰动为主 | 17 | | 工业硅：关注上方空间 | 19 | | 多晶硅：需求回落 | 19 | | 铁矿石：铁水产量下滑，矿价震荡 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦炭：一轮提降开启，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 26 | ...

2026年03月05日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 黄金：地缘政治冲突爆发 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡格局 | 3 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格回升 | 5 | | 锌：震荡偏强 | 7 | | 铅：库存平稳，价格震荡 | 9 | | 锡：关注风偏企稳情况 | 10 | | 铝：中东铝厂减产，供应担忧发酵 | 11 | | 氧化铝：反弹沽空 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：情绪较为悲观 | 13 | | 钯：整体偏弱 | 13 | | 镍：印尼矿端现实跟进，三月警惕投机属性 | 15 | | 不锈钢：矿端矛盾边际增加，成本支撑重心上移 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：供需偏强，市场情绪扰动为主 | 17 | | 工业硅：情绪提振为主 | 19 | | 多晶硅：现货价格松动 | 19 | | 铁矿石：等待钢厂复产，矿价低位反弹 | 21 | | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 22 | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 22 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 24 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange have announced adjustments to margin ratios and price limits for various futures contracts, as well as work arrangements for the 2026 Spring Festival period to mitigate market risks during this time [1][7][14]. Group 1: Margin Ratio and Price Limit Adjustments - The margin ratios and price limits for newly listed futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc have been adjusted, with price limits set at 10% and margin ratios at 11% for hedged positions and 12% for general positions [4]. - For contracts like nickel and tin, the price limit is set at 12% with margin ratios of 13% for hedged positions and 14% for general positions [4]. - Gold contracts have a price limit of 17% and margin ratios of 18% for hedged positions and 19% for general positions, while silver contracts have a price limit of 20% and margin ratios of 21% for hedged positions and 22% for general positions [4]. - Other contracts, including rebar and hot-rolled coils, have a price limit of 7% and margin ratios of 8% for hedged positions and 9% for general positions [4]. Group 2: Spring Festival Work Arrangements - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will not conduct night trading on February 13, 2026, and will be closed from February 14 to February 23, 2026, resuming trading on February 24, 2026 [8][14]. - On February 24, 2026, all futures and options contracts will undergo a collective auction from 08:55 to 09:00, followed by the resumption of night trading [9]. Group 3: Risk Control Measures - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has implemented measures to adjust margin ratios and price limits for gold and silver contracts to prevent price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [16]. - Starting from the close on February 11, 2026, the margin ratio for gold contracts will increase from 18% to 21%, and the price limit will rise from 17% to 20% [16]. - For silver contracts, the margin ratio will increase from 24% to 27%, with the price limit changing from 23% to 26% [16].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, and Guangzhou Futures Exchange have announced adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts ahead of the 2026 Spring Festival [1] Group 1: Adjustments by Shanghai Futures Exchange - Starting from the settlement on February 12, 2026, the price limit for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and alumina futures will be adjusted to 13%, with margin requirements set at 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [2] - Nickel and tin futures will have a price limit of 15%, with margin requirements of 16% for hedging and 17% for general positions [2] - Futures for casting aluminum alloy, wire rod, and stainless steel will see a price limit of 11%, with margin requirements of 12% for hedging and 13% for general positions [2] - Gold futures will have a price limit of 20%, with margin requirements of 21% for hedging and 22% for general positions [2] - Silver futures will have a price limit of 25%, with margin requirements of 26% for hedging and 27% for general positions [2] - Futures for rebar, hot-rolled coils, pulp, and printing paper will have a price limit of 10%, with margin requirements of 11% for hedging and 12% for general positions [2] - Futures for fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 2: Adjustments by Shanghai International Energy Exchange - From February 12, 2026, the price limit for international copper futures will be set at 13%, with margin requirements of 14% for hedging and 15% for general positions [3] - Crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures will have a price limit of 12%, with margin requirements of 13% for hedging and 14% for general positions [3] - The shipping index (European line) futures will have a price limit of 18%, with a margin requirement of 20% [3] Group 3: Adjustments by Guangzhou Futures Exchange - Starting from February 12, 2026, the price limit for industrial silicon futures will be adjusted to 11%, with speculative margin requirements set at 13% and hedging margin requirements at 12% [3] - The price limit for polysilicon futures will be adjusted to 12%, with margin requirements remaining unchanged for both speculative and hedging positions [3] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 15%, with speculative margin requirements set at 17% and hedging margin requirements at 16% [3] - The price limit for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 24%, with both speculative and hedging margin requirements set at 26% [3] Group 4: Resumption of Trading - Trading will resume on February 24, 2026, and the price limits and margin requirements for industrial silicon, polysilicon, platinum, and palladium futures will revert to pre-adjustment levels on the first trading day without price limits and continuous quotes [4] - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 13%, with speculative margin requirements set at 15% and hedging margin requirements at 14% [4]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced the trading arrangements for the Spring Festival in 2026, including a market closure from February 14 to February 23, with night trading resuming on February 24 [2] - The margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted starting from the market close on February 12, 2026, with specific percentages outlined for different commodities [2] - The price fluctuation limits and margin ratios will revert to their original levels after the first trading day without a one-sided market following February 24, 2026 [3] Group 2 - Specific adjustments include a 13% price fluctuation limit for copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead futures, with varying margin ratios for hedging and general positions [2] - Nickel and tin futures will have a 15% price fluctuation limit, with higher margin requirements for different types of positions [2] - Gold and silver futures will see significant adjustments, with price fluctuation limits set at 20% and 25% respectively, along with corresponding margin ratio changes [2]

经历史诗级暴跌后，金银价格周二大反攻。行情动荡之际，交易所再出手。 2月3日，上海期货交易所（以下简称"上期所"）连续发布多条通知，对相关品种的期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例进行调整。 黄金方面，自2026年2月4日（星期三）收盘清算时起，Au（T+D）、mAu（T+D）、Au（T+N1）、Au（T+N2）、NYAuTN06、NYAuTN12等合约的保证 金比例从16%调整为17%，下一交易日起涨跌幅度限制从15%调整为16%；CAu99.99合约保证金每手120000元调整至每手150000元。 | | | INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS | | 请输入关键字,搜栏目 / 行情资讯 / 公告 / 规则 | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 首页 | 关于上金所 新闻中心 | 产品服务 数据资讯 | 会员专区 | 投资者服务 | 制度与规则 | | 交易所介绍 | > | 关于调整黄金部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知 | | | | | 公告 | > | 来源: 时间:2026-02-03 | | | | | ▶ 交易所公告 | ...

多家交易所密集调整多个品种期货相关合约涨跌停板幅度和交易保证金比例。 2026年2月3日（星期二）自收盘清算时起，Ag(T+D)合约的保证金水平从26%调整为23%，下一交易日 起涨跌幅度限制从25%调整为22%。 2月3日，国际金银价格迎来大幅反弹。截至发稿，现货黄金涨近6%，站上4930美元/盎司，现货白银涨 超12%，站上88美元/盎司。 | 伦敦全现 | 4935.460 | 276.182 | 5.93% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦银现 | 88.663 | 9.532 | 12.05% | | COMEX黄金 | 4949.7 d | 297.1 | 6.39% | | COMEX白银 | 88.105 d | 11.096 | 14.41% | | SHFE黄金 | 1110.38 | 46.28 | 4.35% | | SHFE自银 | 22872 | 1732 | 8.19% | 国内市场方面，3日夜盘，上期所沪银主力合约涨超8%，沪金主力合约涨超4%；上海黄金交易所SGE 黄金T+D涨超3%，SGE白银T+D涨超7%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple exchanges have made significant adjustments to the price limits and margin requirements for various futures contracts, indicating a response to market volatility and aiming to stabilize trading conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Futures Contract Adjustments - From February 5, 2026, the price limit for futures contracts on fuel oil, asphalt, butadiene rubber, and natural rubber will be adjusted to 9%, with margin requirements set at 10% for hedging and 11% for general positions [1]. - The price limit for futures contracts on pulp and printing paper will be adjusted to 7%, with margin requirements of 8% for hedging and 9% for general positions [1]. - The price limit for silver futures will be set at 19%, with margin requirements of 20% for hedging and 21% for general positions starting February 4, 2026 [1]. - For crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and No. 20 rubber futures, the price limit will also be 9%, with similar margin requirements as above [1]. - Platinum and palladium futures will have a price limit of 20% and a margin requirement of 22% starting February 5, 2026 [1]. Group 2: Margin Adjustments for Specific Contracts - The margin level for Ag(T+D) contracts will be adjusted from 26% to 23%, with the price limit changing from 25% to 22% starting February 3, 2026 [2]. - For Au(T+D) and related contracts, the margin ratio will increase from 16% to 17%, with the price limit changing from 15% to 16% starting February 4, 2026 [2]. - The margin for CAu99.99 contracts will be adjusted from 120,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per contract [2]. Group 3: Market Reactions - On February 3, international gold and silver prices experienced a significant rebound, with gold rising nearly 6% to approximately $4,930 per ounce and silver increasing over 12% to around $88 per ounce [3]. - Specific market data shows that London gold reached $4,935.46, reflecting a 5.93% increase, while London silver hit $88.663, up 12.05% [4]. - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported that the main silver contract rose over 8% and the main gold contract increased over 4% on the night of February 3 [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant rebound in gold and silver prices after recent declines, with gold rising by 5.47% and silver experiencing fluctuations of over 11% [1][3] - As of February 3, 2026, the Shanghai Gold Exchange announced adjustments to margin levels and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures contracts due to high volatility in precious metals [3][4] - The margin for gold futures contracts will increase from 16% to 17%, and the price fluctuation limit will rise from 15% to 16% starting February 4, 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - For silver futures, the margin level will decrease from 26% to 23%, and the price fluctuation limit will be adjusted from 25% to 22% effective February 3, 2026 [5][6] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange also announced similar adjustments for other commodities, including fuel oil and rubber, with specific changes to margin levels and price fluctuation limits [8][10] - The adjustments are part of a broader risk management strategy to ensure market stability amid increased trading activity and volatility in the precious metals sector [4][5]

每经AI快讯，2月3日，据上期所公告，经研究决定，自2026年2月5日(星期四)收盘结算时起，涨跌停板 幅度和交易保证金比例调整如下：燃料油、石油沥青、丁二烯橡胶、天然橡胶期货已上市合约的涨跌停 板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为11%；纸浆、 胶版印刷纸期货已上市合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为7%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为8%，一般持仓 交易保证金比例调整为9%；如遇《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》第十三条规定情况，则在上述 涨跌停板幅度、交易保证金比例基础上调整。关于涨跌停板和交易保证金的其他事项按《上海期货交易 所风险控制管理办法》及相关业务规则执行。 ...