2025 年 9 月 5 日 银河能化-20250905 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报（25-09-05） 【市场回顾】 原油结算价：WTI2510 合约 63.48 跌 0.49 美元/桶，环比-0.77%；Brent2511 合约 66.99 跌 0.61 美元/桶，环比-0.90%。SC2510 合约跌 8.2 至 483.6 元/桶，夜盘跌 0.3 至 483.3 元/ 桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.45 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国上周初请失业金人数增加 8000 人至 23.7 万人，高于经济学家预期的 23 万人，而且 8 月民间企业招聘放缓，进一步显示劳动力市场正在降温。与此同时，关税政策继续影响贸 易数据。美国商务部经济分析局公布，7 月贸易逆差扩大 32.5%，达到 783 亿美元，创纪 录的资本和其他商品流入是主要原因。 纽约联储总裁威廉姆斯表示，若美国经济在明年如其预期般出现失业率温和上升和通胀趋 缓，美联储可能会逐步下调短期借贷成本。 EIA 数据显示，包括战略储备在内的美国原油库存总量 8.25 亿桶，比前一周增长 292 万 桶；美国商业原油库存量 4.21 亿桶，比前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - sentiment is generally stable, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [3][4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [5][6]. - PX prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the start - up rate increasing in Asia and the downstream PTA having a restart plan in the fourth quarter, and there is still an expectation of destocking [8][9]. - PTA's September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - Ethylene glycol's overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [13][14]. - Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [19][21]. - Propylene prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market tending to be loose overall and strong support from the upstream raw material end [22][23]. - Plastic PP prices are expected to be volatile and weak, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation and the peak - season demand likely to be weak [24][25]. - PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with increasing supply and weakening macro - drive [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with stable supply and uncertain demand improvement [34][35]. - Methanol prices should be shorted on rallies, with increasing supply and high port inventory [36][37]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, with the domestic supply being loose and the demand showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender has a certain support for the market [38]. - Double - offset paper production is difficult to increase significantly, with weak demand and limited cost support [40][41]. - Log prices are in a weak balance in the short term, and the medium - and long - term market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [42][43]. - Pulp prices can be lightly tested for long positions in the SP11 contract [45][46]. - BR prices should hold short positions in the BR10 contract, and natural rubber should hold long positions in the RU01 contract [49][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 contract settled at $65.59, up $1.58/barrel, +2.47% month - on - month; Brent2511 contract settled at $69.14, up $0.99/barrel, +1.45% month - on - month [1]. - **Related News**: Trump will ask the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on the tariff case, and he also called for a "substantial" interest rate cut by the Fed. The US manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 48.7 but was still below the boom - bust line [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - sentiment is stable, geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Brent contract operating in the range of $68.5 - $69.5/barrel [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3549 points at night (- 0.06%), and BU2512 closed at 3492 points at night (+0.00%). The spot price in Shandong rose by 30 yuan/ton, and that in South China rose by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, the increase in crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment, and the terminal demand was relatively stable. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the supply increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. In the South China market, the price was slightly pushed up due to improved market sentiment and demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and strong; for the spread, the asphalt - crude oil spread is volatile; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2830 at night (- 0.39%), and LU11 closed at 3530 at night (- 0.34%). The high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread in the Singapore paper - cargo market was $0.8/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread was $2.38/ton [5]. - **Related News**: The Dangote refinery in Nigeria exported the first batch of gasoline to North America at the end of August, and the RFCC unit resumed operation on August 22. There were no transactions in the Singapore spot window on September 2 [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weakly volatile; for the spread, pay attention to the short - term contango opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 6834 during the day (- 32/- 0.47%) and 6862 at night (+28/+0.41%). The PX spot price was estimated at $846/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month [8]. - **Related News**: A factory in East China postponed the restart of its PX and PTA units. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and US sanctions on some oil - producing countries pushed up oil prices. The Asian PX start - up rate continued to increase, and the downstream PTA had a restart plan in the fourth quarter, with an expectation of destocking [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile at a high level; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA601 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 4756 during the day (- 16/- 0.34%) and 4766 at night (+10/+0.21%). The PTA spot basis continued to weaken [11]. - **Related News**: Some PTA units were restarting or shutting down, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4339 (- 88/- 1.19%) during the day and 4363 (+24/+0.55%) at night. The spot basis was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [13]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 5.1 tons week - on - week, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to do basis positive spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2510 main contract closed at 6438 during the day (- 30/- 0.46%) and 6446 at night (+8/+0.12%). The price of straight - spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, and a factory in Xinjiang restarted its 200,000 - ton straight - spun polyester staple unit [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [16]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: The PR2511 main contract closed at 5910 (- 40/- 0.67%) during the day and 5928 at night (+18/+0.30%). The polyester bottle - chip market transaction atmosphere was average [16][18]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was partially lowered [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract of pure benzene and styrene futures closed at 5936 during the day (- 74/- 1.23%) and 6012 at night (+76/+1.28%); the EB2510 main contract closed at 6934 during the day (- 79/- 1.13%) and 7018 at night (+84/+1.21%). The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Related News**: A new cracking ethylene unit in Shandong Yulong plans to be put into operation in mid - September [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on pure benzene and short on styrene; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 main contract closed at 6405 (- 18/- 0.28%) during the day and 6425 at night (+20/+0.31%). The propylene price in Shandong rose slightly [22]. - **Related News**: The listing price of propylene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propylene market is generally loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with strong support from the upstream raw material end [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of PP拉丝 in North China decreased by 30/0 yuan/ton [24]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is new production capacity expected to be put into operation for plastic PP, and the peak - season demand is likely to be weak, so the price is expected to be volatile and weak [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong was stable, while the price in Jiangsu increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was basically unchanged, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Jinning was stable [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, PVC is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 01 contract closed at 1267 yuan (- 4/- 0.3%) during the day and 1280 yuan at night (13/1.0%). The SA9 - 1 spread was - 115 yuan [31]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash production equipment had changes in operation status, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply increases, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, with weakening macro - drive [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 backwardation strategy in the first half of the month; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 01 contract closed at 1134 yuan/ton (- 3/- 0.26%) during the day and 1141 yuan/ton at night (7/0.62%). The 9 - 1 spread was - 179 yuan [34]. - **Related News**: The spot price of float glass increased slightly, and the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass supply is stable, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2393 (+15/+0.63%). The production - area and consumption - area prices were reported [36]. - **Related News**: The international methanol (excluding China) production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device start - up rate is stable, the import is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is increasing. The domestic supply is loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is recommended to short at high levels; for the spread, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%). The ex - factory price was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily urea production increased, and India tendered for 200,000 tons of urea [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The offset printing paper futures will be listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on September 10, 2025. The initial trading contracts are OP2601 - OP2608. The trading margin is 8% of the contract value (7% for hedging), and the daily price limit is ±6%, with the limit on the first trading day being twice that amount [1][12]. - The futures use a (production - type + trading - type) warehouse + depot delivery method, which is more suitable for the spot trading habits and can meet customized needs. The delivery rules may be more favorable to sellers [2][24][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Interpretation of Offset Printing Paper Futures Contract Parameters - The futures will be listed on September 10, 2025, with an opening call auction from 08:55 - 09:00 and trading starting at 09:00. The initial contracts are OP2601 - OP2608. The trading margin is 8% (7% for hedging), and the daily price limit is ±6% (12% on the first day) [1][12]. - The trading unit is 40 tons/hand, the quotation unit is RMB/ton, and other contract details are provided. When conducting cross - variety arbitrage, attention should be paid to the contract ratio. The contract value is at a medium - to - high level in the futures market, which helps optimize the trader structure [13][16]. 3.2. Offset Printing Paper Futures Delivery Rules and Interpretation - **Delivery Unit**: The trading unit is 40 tons/hand, and the delivery unit is 40 tons per standard warehouse receipt, with delivery in integer multiples of the standard warehouse receipt. This setting matches downstream procurement habits and mainstream transportation methods [17][18]. - **Delivery Standards**: The paper should have specific quantitative, thickness, whiteness, width, and quality requirements, and meet or exceed relevant national standards. The delivery brand should be an exchange - certified product. The initial registered brands are expected to be mainly from large manufacturers [19][20][23]. - **Delivery Method**: It uses a combination of warehouse and depot delivery. Depot delivery is more in line with spot trading habits and can meet customized needs, while warehouse delivery ensures smooth delivery [24][25][29]. - **Delivery - related Fees**: The delivery fee is 1 RMB/ton, and it is waived until December 31, 2025 (except for high - frequency traders). Warehouse storage rent is 1 RMB/ton·day, and in - and out - of - warehouse fees are 20 RMB/ton. Depot storage rent is 0.9 RMB/ton·day, and the out - of - warehouse fee is 20 RMB/ton [31][32][33]. 3.3. Offset Printing Paper Futures Delivery Rules May Favor Sellers - For sellers, it is not difficult to meet the quality requirements, and they can increase sales channels and lock in profits through selling delivery. Depot delivery is more flexible and reduces capital and resource occupation [33][34]. - For buyers, it is difficult to participate directly in buying delivery due to issues such as the inability of some delivery product standards to meet requirements, the existing procurement model of publishers, and concerns about after - sales service [34]. 3.4. Risk Management of Offset Printing Paper Futures - **Trading Margin**: The minimum margin is 5% of the contract value, and different margins are charged at different stages of the contract's operation [35]. - **Position Limit System**: There is a position limit system, and hedging positions are subject to approval and not restricted by the limit. Different limits apply to different types of members and clients at different times [35][36]. 3.5. Offset Printing Paper Futures Options Contract - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has launched offset printing paper futures options contracts. They use the American exercise method, with a trading unit of 1 hand of the futures contract, a minimum price change of 1 RMB/ton, and a price limit the same as that of the underlying futures contract. The strike price range and intervals are designed to adapt to market fluctuations [38][39][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided reports. Core Views - The oil price is expected to be short - term bullish and long - term bearish. Brent is expected to trade between $67 - 69 per barrel, with short - term volatility and limited upside due to long - term oversupply concerns [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to be range - bound, with cost support from oil prices, but supply growth in September and mediocre demand may slow down inventory reduction [4]. - The fuel oil market is expected to be weak. High - sulfur fuel oil supply pressure has slightly decreased, and low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing with no clear demand driver [6][7]. - The PX market is expected to maintain a good fundamental situation, with prices and profits supported by supply and demand factors [9][10]. - The PTA market is expected to be range - bound, with a possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to supply increases and limited demand growth [11]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be in a tight - balance situation, with prices likely to fluctuate [13]. - The short - fiber market is expected to follow raw material price fluctuations, with some support for processing fees from factory production cuts [14]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to be range - bound, with low - level fluctuations in processing fees as demand transitions from peak to off - peak [17]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets are expected to be weak. Pure benzene has supply - side pressure and lack of upward drivers, while styrene faces inventory and demand issues [20][21]. - The propylene market is expected to be range - bound, with sufficient supply and stable demand, but the market may become more relaxed in the future [23]. - The plastic and PP markets are expected to be short - term range - bound, with new capacity and demand factors affecting prices [26]. - The PVC market is expected to be bearish due to export concerns and supply - demand imbalances, while the烧碱 market may have a short - term correction but remains bullish in the medium - term [28]. - The soda ash market is expected to be weak in the short - term due to supply increases and macro - factors [31]. - The glass market is expected to be range - bound and weak, with stable supply, improving but uncertain demand, and inventory increases [33]. - The methanol market is recommended to be shorted at high prices due to supply increases and high port inventories [35]. - The urea market is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, with high supply and limited domestic demand, but some support from Indian tenders [39]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short - term, with a weak balance between supply and demand, and long - term demand needs to be observed [42]. - The offset - printing paper market is expected to have a certain decline in production, with limited demand and cost support [44]. - The pulp market's SP 11 - contract is recommended to hold short positions, affected by various economic indicators [47]. - The natural rubber market's RU 01 - contract is recommended to hold long positions, and the NR 10 - contract to be observed, affected by global and regional economic and industry data [50]. - The butadiene rubber market's BR 10 - contract is recommended to be observed, with potential pressure at the Wednesday high [52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 rose $0.90 to $64.15 per barrel, Brent2510 rose $0.83 to $68.05 per barrel, and SC2510 fell to 486.4 yuan per barrel [1]. - **EIA Data**: As of August 22, U.S. total crude oil inventory decreased by 1.62 million barrels, commercial crude inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 1.24 million barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.79 million barrels [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term volatility, long - term oversupply limits upside, and geopolitical factors cause frequent market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, focus on $67 support for Brent [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3492 points (+0.61%) at night, and BU2512 closed at 3412 points (+0.38%) at night. Spot prices in Shandong and East China decreased, while in South China increased [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support from oil prices, supply growth in September, and mediocre demand slow down inventory reduction [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, weak asphalt - oil spread [4]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU10 closed at 2824 (-0.18%) at night, LU11 closed at 3505 (+0.46%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply and inventory are high, but supply pressure has slightly decreased; low - sulfur supply is increasing with no clear demand driver [6][7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and range - bound, observe high - sulfur warehouse receipt generation and digestion [8]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2511 closed at 6940 (-0.77%) during the day and 6902 (-0.55%) at night. Spot prices decreased [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Asian PX production capacity changes, downstream PTA production capacity changes, and overall supply - demand fundamentals are good [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound [10]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA601 closed at 4824 (-0.94%) during the day and 4804 (-0.41%) at night. Spot basis weakened [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases in September and October, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, basis positive arbitrage, 1 - 5 spread reverse arbitrage, double - sell options [11][12]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2601 closed at 4481 (-0.20%) during the day and remained unchanged at night. Spot basis was strong [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tight - balance situation, supply increases, and inventory may rise [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound, double - sell options [13][14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2510 closed at 6572 (-0.76%) during the day and 6544 (-0.43%) at night. Spot prices were stable [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Follows raw material price fluctuations, and factory production cuts support processing fees [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound [15]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2511 closed at 5994 (-0.66%) during the day and 5982 (-0.20%) at night. Spot market trading was light [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Follows raw material price fluctuations, with low - level processing fee fluctuations as demand transitions [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, double - sell options [15][17][18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: BZ2503 closed at 6114 (-0.68%) during the day and 6100 (-0.23%) at night, EB2510 closed at 7170 (-1.2%) during the day and 7133 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and inventory changed [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene has supply - side pressure and lack of upward drivers, and styrene faces inventory and demand issues [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and range - bound, short styrene - pure benzene spread [20][21]. Propylene - **Market Review**: PL2601 closed at 6444 (-0.36%) during the day and 6441 (-0.05%) at night. Spot prices increased [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Cost support, sufficient supply, and stable demand, with the market expected to become more relaxed [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound [24]. Plastic and PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot prices had different changes in different regions [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity and demand factors affect prices, with short - term range - bound expectations [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices were stable in some areas and increased in others [26][27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is bearish due to export and supply - demand issues, and caustic soda may have a short - term correction but is bullish in the medium - term [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC bearish, caustic soda buy on dips [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures 01 - contract closed at 1307 (-0.3%) and 1291 (-1.2%) at night. Spot prices were stable [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, and short - term weakness is expected due to macro - factors [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weakness, long FG01 and short SA01 [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures 01 - contract closed at 1175 (0.17%) and 1158 (-1.45%) at night. Spot prices had different changes in different regions [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stable supply, improving but uncertain demand, and inventory increases [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weak, long FG01 and short SA01 [34]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2361 (-0.92%). Spot prices varied by region [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increases, port inventory is high, and it is recommended to short at high prices [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short at high prices, sell call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1737 (0%). Spot prices were stable [37]. - **Logic Analysis**: High supply, limited domestic demand, and some support from Indian tenders [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds [39][40]. Log - **Market Review**: Log futures' 11 - contract closed at 814.5 (-8.5). Spot prices were stable [41][42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak balance between supply and demand, long - term demand needs to be observed [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe [42]. Offset - Printing Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and wood chip prices were mostly stable [43][44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production may decline, with limited demand and cost support [44]. - **No specific trading strategy was provided in the report**. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp's SP 11 - contract closed at 4976 (-0.68). Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by various economic indicators, short - position holding is recommended [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on SP 11 - contract [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - **Market Review**: RU 01 - contract closed at 15840 (+0.51), NR 10 - contract closed at 12665 (+0.40). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by global and regional economic and industry data [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions on RU 01 - contract, observe NR 10 - contract [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR 10 - contract closed at 11765 (+0.47). Spot prices of different types of butadiene rubber changed [50][51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Affected by industry market - to - book ratios and import data [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe BR 10 - contract, reduce positions on BR2510 put 10600 - contract [52].

Group 1 - The company announced a guarantee of 300 million yuan for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jianfa Pulp and Paper, to apply for a designated delivery warehouse for newsprint futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange [1] - Prior to this guarantee, the company had already issued a guarantee of 300 million yuan for Jianfa Pulp and Paper regarding the renewal of the agreement for bleached sulfate softwood pulp futures warehouse [1] - As of the end of July 2025, the company's actual external guarantee balance amounts to 189.658 billion yuan and 3.319 billion USD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) will launch futures and options for coated printing paper, fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp on September 10, 2025, to enhance risk management tools in the paper industry and support sustainable development [2][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Launching Coated Printing Paper Futures and Options - The coated printing paper industry in China is undergoing rapid upgrades, with a production volume of 9.48 million tons and apparent consumption of 8.71 million tons expected in 2024, indicating a high demand for risk management tools due to market volatility [3]. - The introduction of these financial derivatives aims to fill the gap in the domestic cultural paper financial products market, providing enterprises with tools to manage price volatility effectively [6]. - The launch will help establish a comprehensive risk management system for the pulp and paper industry, allowing companies to control costs and stabilize revenues from raw materials to finished products [6]. Group 2: Highlights of Contract and Business Rules - The design of the futures and options contracts incorporates successful experiences from existing products while focusing on risk prevention and market development to ensure transparency and fairness [4]. - The minimum price fluctuation for coated printing paper options is set at 1 yuan/ton, reflecting the typical trading behavior of option traders [4]. Group 3: Delivery Method and Risk Management - The coated printing paper futures will utilize a combined delivery method involving both warehouses and factory storage, catering to the diverse specifications required by downstream users [5]. - This dual delivery approach aims to reduce delivery costs and meet customized demands while ensuring market stability and mitigating delivery risks [5]. Group 4: Risk Prevention Measures - The SHFE plans to implement strict regulatory measures and enhance monitoring to ensure the smooth operation of the new products [7]. - The exchange will conduct market training and investor education to familiarize participants with the new futures and options, ensuring effective market engagement [9].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will conduct two full market production system drills for futures and options on coated paper, pulp, petroleum asphalt, and fuel oil on August 23, 2025, and September 6, 2025 [1]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of macro - economic data, commodity investment trends, financial news, and stock market developments. It indicates that the government is taking measures to boost the economy, and various markets are influenced by factors such as geopolitical events, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics. For the bond market, different research institutions have different outlooks, with some expecting a downward trend in interest rates, while others are cautious about short - term fluctuations [1][2][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Macro Data** - GDP growth in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter. Manufacturing PMI in July 2025 was 49.3%, down from 49.7% in the previous month. Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in July was 50.1%, also a decline from the previous month. Social financing scale in July was lower than the previous month and the same period last year. M1 and M2 growth rates increased in July compared to the previous month and the same period last year, while M0 growth decreased slightly. Financial institution RMB loans decreased in July. CPI was flat in July, and PPI remained negative. Fixed - asset investment growth slowed down, while social consumption and export and import growth showed positive trends [1]. **Commodity Investment** **Comprehensive** - The government aims to enhance macro - policy effectiveness, stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market. The central bank will boost the development of the movable - property financing market to support small and medium - sized enterprises. New futures and options contracts have been launched by the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2][3]. **Metals** - Geopolitical developments may ease tensions and reduce safe - haven demand. A company agreed to acquire gold and copper assets from BHP for $465 million. Peru's copper production increased by 7.1% in June. Some institutions raised the gold price target. Metal inventories at the London Metal Exchange generally decreased [4][5][6]. **Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals** - Some regions in Shandong plan to raise coke prices. The prices of coking coal and coke in the circulation field increased in early August. Glencore applied to include two copper projects worth over $13 billion in Argentina's investment incentive program [7]. **Energy and Chemicals** - Oil prices rose due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns. Citi expects Russian pipeline gas supply to Europe to potentially resume by the end of 2025, which affects its gas price forecast. Indonesia anticipates an increase in oil and gas production in 2026 [9]. **Agricultural Products** - The price of soybean meal increased in early August. The anti - subsidy investigation on EU dairy products was extended. There are developments in corn, wheat, and ethanol production, and Brazil's competition authority is investigating the "soybean suspension plan" [10]. **Financial News** **Open Market** - The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 154.5 billion yuan on August 18. The Ministry of Finance and the central bank carried out treasury cash management operations with a winning bid of 120 billion yuan and an interest rate of 1.78% [12]. **Important News** - The government is committed to economic stability and market confidence. The trading association is investigating the misappropriation of debt - financing funds. There are various government bond operations, and the central bank signed a currency swap agreement with Thailand. There are international political developments and corporate bond - related events [13][14][15]. **Bond Market Review** - Bond yields generally rose, and bond futures prices fell. Different bond - related interest rates showed various trends, and overseas bond yields also had different movements. Some institutions have different outlooks on the bond market [17][18][22]. **Foreign Exchange Market** - The on - shore and offshore RMB showed different trends against the US dollar, and the US dollar index rose, affecting other major currencies [21]. **Research Report Highlights** - Different institutions have different views on the bond market, including expectations of interest - rate decline, focus on structural policies, and suggestions on convertible bond investment [22][23][24]. **Today's Reminders** - Many bonds are scheduled to be listed, issued, and have payments on August 19 [25][26]. **Stock Market News** - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points, driven by various types of funds. The number of new accounts at securities brokerages increased, and there is an expected inflow of more funds into the A - share market. The Hong Kong stock market had mixed performance, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching the feasibility of adding a special voting channel for margin - trading accounts [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will launch futures and options for coated printing paper and related products on September 10, 2025, aiming to provide tools for price risk management in the cultural paper industry [1][2]. Industry Overview - Coated printing paper is a significant type of cultural and printing paper, primarily made from bleached wood pulp, widely used in books and notebooks, characterized by a large market size, high standardization, and significant price volatility [1]. - China is the largest producer and consumer of coated printing paper globally, with a production volume of 9.48 million tons and apparent consumption of 8.71 million tons in 2024 [1]. Market Demand and Impact - The introduction of coated printing paper futures and options aligns with the core needs of industry chain enterprises to hedge against price fluctuations and secure operating profits [2]. - The new financial derivatives will fill a gap in the cultural paper market, creating a "pulp-paper" integrated risk management chain, helping companies manage raw material cost fluctuations and product price uncertainties [2]. Pricing Mechanism - The transparent price discovery function of the new products is expected to serve as an "anchor" for the industry, enhancing the efficiency of spot pricing and guiding companies in optimizing production plans [2]. - The market size for coated printing paper in China is nearly 50 billion yuan [2]. Trading Specifications - The trading unit for coated printing paper futures has been adjusted from 20 tons to 40 tons per contract to better match the purchasing habits of downstream printing plants and mainstream transportation methods in spot trading [3]. - The delivery unit will also be standardized to 40 tons per warehouse receipt, aligning with the new trading unit [3].