来源：中国基金报 【导读】疯狂的白银 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好啊，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现，白银，又涨疯了。 白银暴涨 1月26日晚间，现货白银涨势不止，向上触及112美元/盎司，日内一度涨超8%。纽约期银也一度突破 112美元/盎司，日内涨超10%。 有分析师指出，本周白银的上涨，还受到华盛顿与欧洲盟友关系出现裂痕的推动；同时，结束俄乌战争 的最新谈判尝试迄今未能取得突破。对美联储独立性的挑战，也进一步点燃了避险买需。 ING集团大宗商品策略师Ewa Manthey表示："在政策不确定性加剧的背景下，美元走弱、实际利率下 行，以及投资者对硬资产偏好增强，共同强化了对白银的支撑。"她指出，相较黄金，白银波动更大 ——这既源于其市场规模更小，也与其兼具工业金属与投资金属的双重属性有关，从而放大了近期行情 的幅度。 与此同时，全球白银市场已连续五年处于供应缺口。随着白银价格不断走高，散户买盘持续涌入。 此外，在特朗普表示其已完成对下一任美联储主席候选人的面试后，贵金属也获得支撑——这一表态再 度引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。特朗普对美联储的再度抨击、对委内瑞拉的军事干预，以及"吞并"格 陵兰岛的威胁，进一步助 ...

Core Viewpoint and Target Price - The target price for gold is projected to reach a quarterly high of $4,400 per ounce in the first half of 2026, with a long-term price range of $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce, and potential peaks even higher [1] - The core judgment indicates that gold will benefit from Federal Reserve rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased central bank and investment demand, while platinum and palladium are expected to lead the rise in precious metals, with silver potentially retreating to the mid-$40 range [1] Bullish Core Logic - Anticipation of a 100 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2026 will lower the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a steepening yield curve and concerns over Fed independence will further enhance safe-haven buying demand [2] - High U.S. debt levels, de-dollarization, and the push for de-globalization are driving central banks to continue increasing gold holdings, with investors reallocating to commodities and sustained net inflows into gold ETFs indicating rising investment demand [2] - Limited supply growth and diversified demand (from central banks, investors, and industrial uses) are supporting prices, with the long-term price range moving up to $3,500 to $4,400 per ounce [2] Downside Risk Factors - Strengthening U.S. risk assets may lead to capital outflows from safe-haven assets, diminishing the attractiveness of gold allocations [3] - Resilient employment data and persistent inflation may result in the Federal Reserve cutting rates less than expected or pausing easing, which could strengthen the dollar and real interest rates, thereby suppressing gold prices [4] - Easing geopolitical tensions and a slowdown in de-dollarization may reduce gold's priority as a safe-haven and allocation asset [5] Market and Institutional Comparison - Various institutions have set different target prices for gold in 2026, with TD Securities projecting $4,400 per ounce based on rate cuts and central bank purchases, Deutsche Bank at a baseline of $4,450 per ounce with a peak of $4,950 per ounce due to strong central bank and ETF demand, and others indicating even higher targets based on similar factors [6] Key Operations and Observations - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path and inflation data, particularly the extent and timing of rate cuts in 2026, is crucial as it serves as a core catalyst for gold prices [7] - Tracking central bank gold purchases and gold ETF fund flows will help assess the strength of physical and investment demand [8] - If gold prices retreat to around $3,600 per ounce, it is considered a favorable buying opportunity by TD Securities [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to a combination of market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, optimistic trade developments, and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Wednesday, gold prices fell by 3% to around $4,000 before recovering to approximately $4,115 [1]. - On Tuesday, gold experienced a significant drop of $231, or 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline in over a decade [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The strong rise in gold prices was partly driven by market expectations of a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [1]. - Investors have been moving away from sovereign bonds and fiat currencies in response to concerns over uncontrolled fiscal deficits, leading to what is termed "currency devaluation trading" [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Optimism regarding international trade, particularly comments from U.S. President Trump about a potential trade agreement with Chinese President Xi, has alleviated some market fears regarding the trade war [1]. - Expectations of a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Citigroup downgraded its "overweight" rating on gold following the recent price drop, citing excessive positioning in the market [1]. - The commodity research team at Citigroup anticipates that gold prices will stabilize around $4,000 in the coming weeks [1].

2025 年第一季度，特朗普关税政策的不确定性严重冲击美国股市。预计 4 月 2 日宣布对等关税，3 日汽车关税生效，引发全球贸易战担忧，扰乱股市。标普 500 指数、纳斯达克指数录得 2022 年以来最差季度表现，3 月大幅下跌，一季度分别急跌 4.6%、暴跌 10.5%，道琼斯工业指数下滑 1.3%。股市大跌促使黄 金避险买需增加，金价 2024 年涨超 27%，今年一季度又涨约 19%，还得益于有利货币政策、央行买盘及对交易基金的需求。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯认为货 币政策位置良好，里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金称降息看通胀。华尔街大行上调金价预期，高盛预计极端情况下未来 12 个月金价破 4500 美元。此外，投资者关注 美联储货币政策，本周非农报告、本交易日的 ISM 制造业 PMI 和 JOLTs 职位空缺等数据，将影响市场走势与投资者决策。 美元指数 美元指数方面，周一美元指数价格总体呈现上涨的状态。当日价格最高上涨至104.374位置，最低于103.722位置，收盘于104.157位置。回顾周一美指价格表 现，早间开盘后价格短线先承压下跌，随后欧盘再度发力突破早盘高点位置，之后美盘再度发力上行，最终看日线级 ...