道明证券在 2026 年大宗商品展望中，判断黄金将在 2026 年上半年触及 4400 美元 / 盎司的季度新高，核心驱动 是美联储降息、去美元化下的央行购金与投资需求抬升，同时也提示了风险资产走强、降息不及预期等下行风 险。以下是核心要点与关键信息整理： 核心观点与目标价 目标价：2026 年上半年金价季度新高至 4400 美元 / 盎司，长期价格区间 3500–4400 美元 / 盎司，交易峰值或更 高。 核心判断：黄金将受益于美联储降息、美元走弱、央行购金与投资需求增长，同时认为铂金和钯金将引领贵金 属上涨，白银则可能回落至 40 美元中段。 看涨核心逻辑 就业韧性超预期，通胀粘性导致美联储降息幅度低于预期或暂停宽松，推升美元与实际利率，压制金价。 地缘冲突缓和、去美元化节奏放缓，降低黄金的避险与配置优先级。 美联储降息与持有成本下降：预期 2026 年降息 100 个基点，降低黄金机会成本；收益率曲线陡峭化与对美联储 独立性的担忧，进一步强化避险买需。 货币与资产配置变化：美国债务高企、去美元化与去全球化推进，推动央行持续增持黄金，投资者增配大宗商 品，黄金 ETF 净流入延续，投资需求上行。 供应与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in gold prices is attributed to a combination of market speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, optimistic trade developments, and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - On Wednesday, gold prices fell by 3% to around $4,000 before recovering to approximately $4,115 [1]. - On Tuesday, gold experienced a significant drop of $231, or 6.3%, marking the largest single-day decline in over a decade [1]. Group 2: Market Influences - The strong rise in gold prices was partly driven by market expectations of a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve before the end of the year [1]. - Investors have been moving away from sovereign bonds and fiat currencies in response to concerns over uncontrolled fiscal deficits, leading to what is termed "currency devaluation trading" [1]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Optimism regarding international trade, particularly comments from U.S. President Trump about a potential trade agreement with Chinese President Xi, has alleviated some market fears regarding the trade war [1]. - Expectations of a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict have reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Citigroup downgraded its "overweight" rating on gold following the recent price drop, citing excessive positioning in the market [1]. - The commodity research team at Citigroup anticipates that gold prices will stabilize around $4,000 in the coming weeks [1].

2025 年第一季度，特朗普关税政策的不确定性严重冲击美国股市。预计 4 月 2 日宣布对等关税，3 日汽车关税生效，引发全球贸易战担忧，扰乱股市。标普 500 指数、纳斯达克指数录得 2022 年以来最差季度表现，3 月大幅下跌，一季度分别急跌 4.6%、暴跌 10.5%，道琼斯工业指数下滑 1.3%。股市大跌促使黄 金避险买需增加，金价 2024 年涨超 27%，今年一季度又涨约 19%，还得益于有利货币政策、央行买盘及对交易基金的需求。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯认为货 币政策位置良好，里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金称降息看通胀。华尔街大行上调金价预期，高盛预计极端情况下未来 12 个月金价破 4500 美元。此外，投资者关注 美联储货币政策，本周非农报告、本交易日的 ISM 制造业 PMI 和 JOLTs 职位空缺等数据，将影响市场走势与投资者决策。 美元指数 美元指数方面，周一美元指数价格总体呈现上涨的状态。当日价格最高上涨至104.374位置，最低于103.722位置，收盘于104.157位置。回顾周一美指价格表 现，早间开盘后价格短线先承压下跌，随后欧盘再度发力突破早盘高点位置，之后美盘再度发力上行，最终看日线级 ...