Core Viewpoint - A new round of growth stabilization plans for ten key industries has been launched, focusing on maintaining reasonable growth rates and improving efficiency and structure in the context of changing external environments and internal economic adjustments [1][2]. Group 1: Reasons for Launching the Growth Stabilization Plans - In 2023, the industrial added value growth rate was only 3.8%, necessitating measures to stabilize the industrial base amid domestic demand contraction and supply shocks [2]. - Currently, the industrial economy is showing a positive trend, with a 6.4% year-on-year growth in industrial added value in the first half of the year, but challenges remain due to external uncertainties and structural contradictions [2]. - The plans aim to enhance the quality of supply, optimize the development environment, and promote both qualitative and quantitative improvements in the industry [2]. Group 2: Key Industries Identified - The ten key industries targeted for growth stabilization include steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, chemicals, building materials, machinery, automobiles, electrical equipment, light industry, and electronic information manufacturing, which collectively account for about 70% of the industrial economy [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Focus Areas - The plans emphasize innovation and transformation on both the supply and demand sides, including strengthening technological innovation, quality standards, and promoting digital and green transformations [6]. - Artificial intelligence is highlighted as a crucial element in the plans, driving innovation across the entire industry chain from chips to smart terminals [7][8]. Group 4: Opportunities for Enterprises - The plans signal a shift from price competition to competition based on technology, quality, and brand, encouraging enterprises to focus on high-value-added products [10]. - Specific measures include tax incentives, support for key product innovation projects, and encouragement for small and specialized enterprises to develop differentiated products [10]. - The plans also emphasize the role of major projects in driving investment and consumption, which is vital for stabilizing and improving the quality of key industries [9]. Group 5: Future Potential - As the growth stabilization plans are implemented, the development potential of these key industries is expected to be continuously released [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is relatively positive due to the expected Fed rate cut and the upcoming release of growth - stabilization plans for key industries in China. However, different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][3]. - For copper, the raw material supply is tight, but the rebound of copper prices is limited due to the off - season demand and the approaching implementation of US copper tariffs [1]. - For aluminum, although the low inventory and positive sentiment may push up the price, the inventory is expected to accumulate, and the price is likely to follow the general trend [3]. - For lead, the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by anti - dumping tariffs, so the domestic lead price is expected to be weak [4]. - For zinc, in the long - term, the price is bearish due to the abundant supply and rising inventory, but in the short - term, it may show a strong and volatile trend [6]. - For tin, the overall fundamentals are weak due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar and weak demand [7]. - For nickel, the demand is weak, and the price of the ore and the whole industry chain is expected to decline [8]. - For lithium carbonate, short - term capital games bring high uncertainty, and it is recommended to observe carefully [10]. - For alumina, the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [13]. - For stainless steel, the supply - demand structure is optimizing, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [15]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the supply and demand are both weak, and it is difficult for the price to rise continuously [18]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.8% to $9,854/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,290 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78,800 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,750 - 9,950/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 50 to 124,775 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 16,000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic spot import loss widened to about 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 1,300 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 0.27% to $2,646/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,755 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE aluminum is 20,600 - 20,900 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,620 - 2,680/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.3 to 448,000 tons [3]. - **Market**: The spot premium in East China decreased, and the aluminum bar processing fee increased but the sales volume was not ideal [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed up 0.31% to 16,897 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,033/ton. The domestic lead price is expected to be weak [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 60,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 263,200 tons [4]. - **Market**: The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 25 yuan/ton, and the import loss was - 851.74 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed up 0.20% to 22,999 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $2,875.5/ton. In the long - term, the price is bearish, and in the short - term, it may be strong and volatile [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 11,900 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 115,300 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased to 92,700 tons [6]. - **Market**: The TC index of imported zinc concentrate increased significantly, and the monthly output of refined zinc in China increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons in June [6]. Tin - **Price**: The tin price declined slightly. The expected operating range for domestic tin is 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin is $31,000 - 35,000/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters are facing raw material supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The consumption is in the off - season, and the downstream orders are weak [7]. Nickel - **Price**: The nickel price fluctuated narrowly. It is recommended to try short - selling lightly. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500/ton [8]. - **Supply**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline, and the production of nickel iron decreased slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the downstream smelters have no motivation to expand production [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index rose 6.17% to 74,832 yuan. It is recommended to observe carefully due to high short - term uncertainty [10]. - **Supply**: The domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons this week [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 550 tons to 143,170 tons [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 2.34% to 3,406 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and consider short - selling later. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 3,200 - 3,600 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply**: The supply - side policy implementation needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short - term [13]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 6,900 tons, at a historical low [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The supply - demand structure is optimizing, but the oversupply situation persists [15]. - **Supply**: The steel mills' production cut has tightened the market supply [15]. - **Demand**: The demand shows signs of recovery, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract declined 0.1% to 20,135 yuan/ton. The price is difficult to rise continuously [18]. - **Supply - demand**: Both supply and demand are weak in the off - season, but the cost support has strengthened [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic regenerated aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased to 32,600 tons [18].

铜 有色金属日报 2025-7-22 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美元指数偏弱运行，商品氛围延续积极，昨日伦铜收涨 0.74%至 9867 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 79770 元/吨。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 100 至 122075 吨，注销仓单比例下滑至 10.3%，Cash/3M 贴水 53.8 美元/吨。国内方面，电解铜社会库存较上周四减少 2.5 万吨（SMM 口径），昨日上期所铜 仓单减少 1.0 至 2.8 万吨，上海地区现货升水期货 220 元/吨，货源 ...