（作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） 转自：新华财经 【黄金时间】是由新华财经与中国黄金报社共同打造的一档聚焦黄金珠宝市场的专题栏目，内容全面覆 盖黄金珠宝行业的政策动态、投资资讯、风险分析等，提供权威、专业、全面的黄金珠宝领域金融信息 服务。新华财经是新华社承建的国家金融信息平台。 新华财经北京2月26日电 国内春节假日期间国际金价连续上涨，经过24日的回落后，短线风险已逐渐释 放，金价坚守每盎司5100美元，仍然有望保持上行形态。 短线获利了结以及美伊核协议新一轮谈判即将举行，是引起金价回落的主要因素。然而，美国关税计划 的不确定性或将继续支撑金价保持相对强势。 技术走势方面，金价自突破每盎司5118美元高点之后，当前下方虽然受到每盎司5100美元一线支撑，但 是，仍然处于1月30日的大阴线价格范围之内，上方受到每盎司5380美元以及前高的阻力压制，短期内 较难一次性突破。关注每盎司5080-5200美元区间低吸高抛，如能向上突破，则关注每盎司5300美元整 数阻力。 白银方面，春节前，银价自高点经过一波三折的下行之后，触及低点附近后再度止跌回升，预计"极端 的情绪化交易暂告一段落，未来两周整体或呈 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a short-term adjustment but maintain a bullish outlook, with potential support levels to watch for buying opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 15, gold opened at $4629.55 per ounce, reached a high of $4632.20, and a low of $4581.25, ultimately closing at $4615.70, down $13.85 or 0.3% [1]. - The daily trading range was $50.95, indicating volatility in the market [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Gold's retreat was influenced by pressure from the previous day's market close and uncertainty regarding U.S. military actions against Iran, which reduced safe-haven demand [3]. - A surprising drop in initial jobless claims strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would remain inactive for several months, further limiting bullish sentiment for gold [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish despite short-term adjustments, with potential buying opportunities if prices retreat to support levels [3][5]. - Technical analysis indicates that if gold maintains its upward momentum, it could open new bullish market space, potentially reaching $5500-$6000 [6]. - Weekly performance shows gold recovering from previous declines, with expectations of reaching $4700 in the coming weeks [8]. Group 4: Upcoming Data and Events - Key upcoming data includes U.S. December industrial production and the January NAHB housing market index, with mixed market expectations [5]. - Notable speeches from Federal Reserve officials regarding economic outlook and monetary policy are anticipated, which may impact gold prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating a potential for further strength, despite short-term fluctuations and adjustments in the market [1][10]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, experienced a drop to a low of $4407.55, and then rebounded to close at $4477.11, marking a daily increase of $17.43 or 0.39% [1][10]. - The daily trading range was $71.65, reflecting volatility in the market [1][10]. Influencing Factors - The decline in gold prices was influenced by pressure from previous resistance levels, increased margin requirements for precious metals futures, and better-than-expected initial data from the U.S. market [3][12]. - Support from buying interest and favorable initial jobless claims data helped gold prices recover [3][12]. - Geopolitical tensions, such as warnings of potential large-scale airstrikes in Ukraine, contributed to the demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][12]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with a target of $5000 and higher, despite potential short-term pressures from a strong U.S. dollar and upcoming non-farm payroll data [3][12][15]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates multiple times this year, which could further support gold prices [15]. - Technical analysis suggests that if gold maintains its upward trend, it could see significant gains, potentially exceeding 30% within the year, with targets set between $5500 and $6000 [15][17]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices are showing strength, recovering most of the previous month's losses and indicating a potential new bull market [15]. - Weekly trends show gold prices recovering from previous declines and maintaining positions above key moving averages, suggesting increased bullish potential [17]. - Daily charts indicate that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold remains above key support levels, maintaining an overall upward trend [18].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices showed a recovery after hitting a low, indicating potential for further strength despite short-term fluctuations [1][3][5]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4459.68 per ounce, fluctuated to a low of $4407.55, and closed at $4477.11, with a daily range of $71.65 and a gain of $17.43, or 0.39% [1]. - The market experienced pressure from increased margin requirements for precious metals futures and better-than-expected initial data, but support buying helped gold recover [3]. Market Outlook - The outlook remains bullish with a target of $5000 or higher, despite potential short-term pressures from upcoming employment data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalancing [5][6]. - Geopolitical risks and expectations of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continue to support a bullish sentiment [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly and weekly charts indicate a strong upward trend, with potential for over 30% gains if the price maintains above key support levels [8][9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4445 and $4420, while resistance levels are at $4500 and $4525 [10]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the gold market remains positive, with expectations of further price increases driven by geopolitical factors and monetary policy [6][8].

Market Overview - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion provide liquidity support, while lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data raises expectations for further rate cuts. Additionally, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict increases demand for safe-haven assets, supporting high gold prices [1] - Several investment banks are bullish on gold prices, projecting them to reach $5,000 per ounce by 2026, although short-term caution is advised due to potential overbought corrections and liquidity sell-offs triggered by stock market volatility [1] Technical Analysis - Daily Level: The international gold price shows a bullish arrangement on the daily chart, stabilizing above the $4,300 mark, with strong support from the 5/10/20-day moving averages. The RSI is neutral to strong, and the MACD shows a bullish crossover above the zero line, indicating ongoing bullish momentum but caution is needed for potential overbought corrections [1] - 4-Hour Level: The 4-hour chart indicates a high-level consolidation for gold, with moving averages in a bullish arrangement and the Bollinger Bands narrowing. The MACD is showing a bearish crossover above the zero line, and the RSI is retreating from overbought levels, signaling a need to be cautious of potential price corrections [1] - 1-Hour Level: The 1-hour chart reflects a bullish upward trend for gold, with expanding Bollinger Bands. The MACD shows a bullish crossover with increasing volume, and the RSI is neutral to strong, indicating enhanced upward momentum, but there is a clear need to be aware of potential high-level price corrections [1] Future Trading Strategy - For bullish positions: Aggressive traders can enter long positions near the support level of $4,150 per ounce, while more conservative traders should wait for stabilization around $4,000 per ounce before entering long positions in the $4,025-$4,035 range [3] - For bearish positions: Aggressive traders can consider short positions near the resistance level of $4,350 per ounce, while conservative traders should look to enter short positions around $4,400 per ounce in the $4,385-$4,375 range [3]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is expected to experience a period of adjustment and potential upward movement in the coming month, with current market conditions indicating a possible recovery after recent declines [1][5][6]. Price Movement Summary - On October 22, gold opened at $4124.66 per ounce, reached a low of $4004.11, and then rebounded to a high of $4161.10 before closing at $4098.24, resulting in a daily decline of $26.42 or 0.64% [1][3]. - The price volatility for the day was $156.99, indicating significant market fluctuations [1]. Market Influences - Investor profit-taking ahead of key U.S. inflation data and optimism regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations contributed to downward pressure on gold prices, which found support near the $4000 mark [3]. - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown concerns and geopolitical tensions have created a mixed market environment, leading to cautious investor behavior [3][6]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations suggest that gold prices will remain in a range-bound adjustment phase, with a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points anticipated on October 30 [5][6]. - If the government shutdown is resolved before the rate decision, gold prices may stabilize and begin to recover by November [5]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly chart, gold prices are currently facing resistance near the upper Bollinger Band and may test support levels around $3945 [7]. - Weekly analysis indicates potential further declines towards $3800, but any drop could present a buying opportunity due to nearby support levels [8]. - Daily charts show a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting a possible rebound, although prices remain below the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4040 and $3940, while resistance levels are at $4166 and $4220 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $47.30 and $46.60, with resistance at $49.00 and $49.80 [10].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices reached a new historical high of 4180, followed by a significant drop to 4090, which is a critical support level for future movements [1] Group 1: Price Movements - The recent surge in gold prices was approximately 240 dollars, moving from a support level of 3944 to a peak of 4180 [1] - The current key level is 4090, which serves as both a support point and the upper boundary of the ascending channel [1][2] - If prices fall below 4090, the next focus will be on the 4065 level, followed by the critical 4035 area [1][2] Group 2: Support and Resistance Levels - The 4090 area is highlighted as a significant point due to its role as a recent support and the upper line of the ascending channel [2] - The dual resistance lines on the hourly chart are crucial, with the upper line currently at 4035, which is near the four-hour life line [2][3] - The 4140 level is identified as a key resistance; if prices can stay above this level, further upward movement towards 4180 is possible [3] Group 3: Trading Strategy - A strategy is suggested to short positions if prices fall below 4140, with specific entry points identified around 4135-4137 and 4128 [3] - The importance of timing in trading is emphasized, with a potential price movement of 80-100 dollars expected upon initiation [2] - If prices stabilize above 4145, a more cautious approach is recommended, as further upward movement may occur [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a rebound due to support from the 5-day moving average and a halt in the previous day's decline, while the dollar index's bullish momentum is slowing down, providing some support for gold prices [1][3] - The dollar index has shown a strong rebound, breaking through the mid-band resistance, which suggests that short-term bullish momentum may continue, potentially exerting downward pressure on gold prices [3] - Gold prices are expected to face resistance around $3780, and until they close above this level, a period of consolidation or pullback is anticipated, with potential support from the 10-day or 30-day moving averages [3] Group 2 - Key economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, the final value of the core PCE price index for Q2, August durable goods orders, and the annualized total of existing home sales for August, with a general market expectation leaning towards a favorable outlook for gold prices [3] - Despite the overall positive expectations for gold, the anticipated impact is expected to be limited, and gold prices are likely to encounter resistance near $3780 unless jobless claims data indicates a stronger-than-expected labor market [3] - Technical indicators suggest that gold prices are facing overbought conditions and weakening momentum, indicating potential for a pullback, although the main trend remains above the 5-10 day moving averages, suggesting a possibility for upward movement [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have reached a new historical high of 3703, with market participants awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to influence further movements [1] Technical Analysis - The gold price continued its upward trend after breaking through the previous resistance level of 3660-3620, establishing a new support level at 3685 [1] - The price fluctuated around 3680 before making a further push towards 3698-3699, with a trading range of approximately 20 dollars [1] - The current price is at 3695, indicating potential for adjustment as it approaches the significant 3700 level [1] Market Sentiment - The market is anticipating the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and subsequent comments from Chairman Jerome Powell, which are expected to have a substantial impact on gold prices [1] - There is a cautious approach as the price nears the 3700 mark, with emphasis on risk management and stop-loss strategies [1] Future Outlook - If the price maintains above 3700, the next resistance levels to watch are 3715-3720 and then 3740 [1] - Should the price face downward pressure below 3700, the focus will shift to the 10-day moving average at 3668 as a potential support level [1] - The strategy involves waiting for a breakout above 3700 while maintaining a defensive position at the early low [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market shows signs of limited pullback despite a weakening bullish momentum, with expectations for a rebound remaining strong, particularly if prices drop to support levels around $3500 or $3450 [1][3]. Price Movement - On September 4, gold opened at $3560.94 per ounce, reached a high of $3563.88, then fell to a low of $3511.28 before closing at $3545.57, marking a daily fluctuation of $52.6 and a decline of $15.37 or 0.43% [3][5]. - The price movement was influenced by a stabilizing dollar index, technical adjustments, and profit-taking at historical highs, but was supported by buying on dips and positive economic data [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the U.S. unemployment rate, adjusted non-farm payrolls for August, and average hourly wage growth, which are expected to be favorable for gold prices [5]. - The market anticipates that if these indicators are positive, gold may initially decline before rebounding [5]. Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates that gold has tested the mid-band support for the fourth time since last year's rise, with an overall upward trend remaining intact despite potential pullbacks [7]. - The daily chart suggests that as long as gold does not close below the 5-day moving average, bullish momentum is expected to continue, with key support levels at $3535 or $3524 and resistance at $3573 or $3590 [9]. Future Outlook - The outlook for gold remains bullish, with potential targets of $3700 and $4000 in sight, contingent on market conditions and economic data [7][9].