张尧浠：金价遇阻获利了结、利好仍在回撤仍可看涨 上交易日周二(2月24日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，受美元走强以及获利了结的影响，再加上多位美联储官员警告通胀依然过高，降息预期大幅降温，拖 累因避险情绪升温推动的金价涨幅，多头动力减弱，但近期走势模式为震荡上移，中东地缘政治紧张局势的反复升温，已成为近期黄金市场的重要推动 力。年内降息前景仍在，故此，行情遇阻回撤，在触及支撑位置也是入场做多的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于5227.26美元/盎司，直接先行录得日内高点5249.43美元，便遇阻回撤并开始跳水100多美金，之后止跌回升，陷入5160-5186 美元区间震荡盘整，到美盘开盘，又再度跳水触及日内低点5094.07美元，最后触底回升，但受阻于日内区间压力，最终收于5143.70美元，日振幅155.36 美元，收跌83.56美元，跌幅1.6%。 展望今日周三(2月25日)：国际黄金开盘受到均线支撑买盘，有所止跌运行，同时，美元指数早盘反弹动力减缓，也对其产生一定支撑，故此，操作上，5 日或10日均线支撑位，也仍是继续做多入场的位置。 黄金TD=(国际黄金价格x汇率)/31.1035 国际黄金波动1美金， ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have shown a strong rebound, returning above the midline, indicating increased bullish momentum, although further movement above the 5-day moving average is needed to enhance bullish prospects [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4667.81 per ounce, reached a low of $4665.67, and then rebounded to a high of $4992.95 before closing at $4935.80, marking a daily range of $327.28 and a gain of $267.99, or 5.74% [3]. - The recent price increase is attributed to buying pressure following a previous low, geopolitical tensions ahead of US-Iran talks, and indications from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts [3][5]. Market Outlook - On February 4, gold opened with weakened bullish momentum due to resistance from short-term moving averages and profit-taking, alongside reduced safe-haven demand following a government funding bill signed by Trump [3]. - Despite these factors, gold remains above key support levels, suggesting that the market may either consolidate or continue to strengthen, with a lower probability of further declines [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates that gold has returned above the 30-day and midline averages but faces resistance at the 10-day moving average, necessitating a breakthrough for a stronger bullish trend [7]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4850 and $4760, while resistance levels are at $5050 and $5160 [7]. - The monthly chart shows that despite a recent drop, gold has rebounded from a previously established upward trend support, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming data to watch includes the US ADP employment figures, S&P Global Services PMI, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, with mixed market expectations [5]. - The recent factors contributing to price drops have subsided, leading to a more favorable outlook for gold prices, supported by indications from Federal Reserve officials about significant rate cut potential this year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has rebounded after hitting a support level, indicating a potential for stabilization and further upward movement in the future [1]. Price Movement - On February 2, gold opened at approximately $4825.84, reached a daily high of $4883.66, and then fell to a low of $4402.27 before closing at $4658.96, marking a daily fluctuation of $481.39 and a decline of $201.35 or 4.14% from the previous close of $4860.31 [3]. - The recent drop in gold prices was influenced by increased margin requirements from the CME and geopolitical developments, including trade agreements that reduced the demand for gold as a safe haven [3][5]. Market Outlook - The outlook for February 3 indicates that gold prices are expected to continue their recovery, supported by a weakening dollar index, although resistance remains at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands and short-term moving averages [3][5]. - The fundamental factors that led to the recent drop in gold prices appear to have been exhausted, suggesting a potential for a rebound as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns remain uncertain [5]. Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, despite the recent drop, gold prices have found support at the previous upward trend line, indicating the potential for a new bull market [7]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold prices have corrected after a previous rise, but the recent rebound suggests a return to strength if prices can maintain above short-term moving averages [7][9]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has rebounded from a key support level, but further upward movement is contingent on breaking through resistance levels [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4640 and $4560, while resistance levels are at $4900 and $5000 [10]. - For silver, support is noted at $78.00 and $75.20, with resistance at $87.50 and $94.00 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments by Trump have led to a significant drop in the US dollar index, reaching a near four-year low, which in turn has boosted gold prices, indicating a strong bullish outlook for gold in the near future [1][3]. Market Performance - On January 27, gold opened at $5012.88 per ounce, recorded a low of $5012.58, and then surged nearly $100 to a high of $5189.94, closing at $5180.86, marking a daily increase of $167.98 or 3.35% [3]. - The following day, January 28, gold prices showed signs of weakness due to profit-taking and a slight recovery in the dollar index, with expectations of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates, which limited bullish momentum [3]. Federal Reserve Impact - The upcoming press conference by Fed Chair Powell is expected to express hawkish views on pausing rate cuts, but this is unlikely to reverse the current bullish trend for gold, as multiple factors support gold prices, including geopolitical risks and economic policy uncertainties [5]. - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with potential price targets of $5500 to $6000 in the short term and a bold prediction of reaching $10,000 by 2030 [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows that gold has rebounded strongly after touching trendline support in December, continuing to set new highs and moving outside the Bollinger Bands, indicating a bullish trend [7]. - Weekly performance indicates that gold remains strong, trading above the upper Bollinger Band, with any potential pullbacks seen as buying opportunities [8]. - Daily charts confirm a stable upward trend, with gold maintaining its position above the 5-day moving average, suggesting continued bullish momentum [9]. Price Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $5150 or $5110, while resistance levels are at $5222 or $5280 [10].

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is intensifying, leading to a surge in gold prices, which have broken through resistance levels, indicating increased bullish momentum and potential for further upward movement towards the $5000 target or higher [1][5]. Price Movement - On January 20, gold opened at $4668.63 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4659.45, then rebounded to break the $4700 mark, reaching a high of $4766.01 before closing at $4763.23, marking a daily increase of $94.6 or 2.03% [3]. - The following day, January 21, gold continued its bullish trend, with expectations of further gains despite a slight recovery in the dollar index [3]. Market Expectations - Upcoming data releases, such as the U.S. December pending home sales index and October construction spending, are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices, supporting a bullish outlook [5]. - Market consensus suggests at least two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2023, which is expected to weaken the dollar and drive more investment into gold [5]. Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and renewed trade war concerns are contributing to heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing the bullish outlook for the metal [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate that gold is maintaining strength above trendline resistance, with potential for a bull market that could see prices rise by over 30% this year, targeting the $5500-$6000 range [7]. - Weekly charts show consistent rebounds supported by moving averages, suggesting continued upward momentum and potential to reach the $4800 mark or higher in the near term [7]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4725 and $4670, while resistance levels are noted at $4800 and $4860 [9]. - For silver, support is at $93.40 and $91.30, with resistance at $96.00 and $97.80 [9].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a high-level fluctuation, with a short-term expectation of adjustment and decline, but the bullish outlook remains unchanged [1][3]. Price Movement - Gold opened at $4629.55 per ounce, reached a high of $4632.20, and a low of $4581.25, closing at $4615.70, with a daily fluctuation of $50.95 and a decline of $13.85, or 0.3% [3]. - The market was influenced by a pullback pressure from the previous day's trading and reduced safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [3]. - The unexpected decrease in initial jobless claims strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would remain inactive for several months, further limiting bullish momentum for gold [3]. Future Outlook - On January 16, gold is expected to face downward pressure due to resistance from previous trading sessions and overall negative data expectations, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact [3][5]. - Key upcoming data includes the U.S. December industrial production month-on-month rate and the January NAHB housing market index, with mixed market expectations [5][6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are strong, recovering from previous declines and potentially opening a new bull market with a target range of $5500 to $6000 if the upward momentum continues [8]. - Weekly analysis shows that gold has regained previous losses and is expected to continue rising towards the $4700 mark in the coming weeks [8]. - Daily analysis suggests a potential adjustment towards the 10-day moving average around $4545 and the middle band at $4475, with bullish entry opportunities if these support levels are reached [10]. Support and Resistance Levels - For gold, key support levels are at $4580 or $4555, while resistance levels are at $4635 or $4650 [10]. - For silver, support levels are at $89.15 or $87.30, with resistance at $93.00 or $94.10 [11].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to rebound, maintaining a bullish outlook with expectations of reaching new historical highs, despite potential gaps that need to be filled [1][3]. Market Performance - On January 6, gold opened at $4,448.62 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,427.94, and reached a high of $4,497.21, closing at $4,494.53, with a daily increase of $45.91, or 1.03% [1]. - The market remains supported by buying interest above short-term moving averages and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to U.S. military actions in Venezuela and potential Fed rate cuts [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Upcoming economic data to watch includes U.S. ADP employment numbers, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, JOLTs job openings, global supply chain pressure index, and factory orders [3]. - The overall expectation for these indicators is favorable for gold prices, with a focus on maintaining a bullish stance [3]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis indicates that gold prices are strong, recovering most of the previous month's losses and potentially opening up a new bull market with expected gains of over 30%, targeting $5,500 to $6,000 [5]. - Weekly analysis shows a potential for a pullback to support levels around $4,000 to $3,900 if the price fails to maintain above key trend lines [7]. Trading Strategy - The prevailing trading strategy is to maintain a bullish outlook, with a focus on buying during dips, as the market shows a tendency to rebound from lower levels [9]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,430 and $4,385, while resistance levels are at $4,515 and $4,550 [9].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, reaching a high of $4,455.48 and closing at $4,448.83, marking a significant increase of 2.78% from the previous close of $4,328.35 [1][3][5] Price Movement - Gold opened at $4,346.46 per ounce, recorded a low of $4,344.06, and then rebounded to a high of $4,455.48 during the day, ultimately closing at $4,448.83 with a daily range of $111.42 [3][5] - The market is currently observing a potential pullback due to profit-taking and anticipation of key economic data releases, such as the non-farm payroll report [3][5] Market Outlook - If geopolitical tensions escalate or if U.S. economic data strengthens expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices may challenge historical highs again [3][5] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by 2026, which could provide further support for gold prices [5] Technical Analysis - On a monthly basis, gold prices have shown a significant pullback, indicating potential risks of a larger correction towards the $4,000-$3,900 range [7] - However, if the current momentum continues, there is potential for gold to reach $5,500-$6,000 [7] - Weekly analysis suggests that while there may be a pullback towards the 10-week moving average at $4,230, the overall trend remains bullish, providing opportunities for re-entry into long positions [7][9] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,410 and $4,380, while resistance levels are at $4,480 and $4,500 [9] - For silver, support is noted at $75.10 and $74.10, with resistance at $78.00 and $79.30 [9]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the coming year has increased, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold prices [1][4]. Market Performance - On December 18, gold opened at $4,337.99 per ounce, fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a low of $4,308.66 and a high of $4,374.14, ultimately closing at $4,332.42, down $5.57 or 0.13% [3]. - The price movements were influenced by a stronger US dollar and the release of lower-than-expected US CPI data, which raised expectations for interest rate cuts [3][4]. Future Outlook - For December 19, gold is expected to continue weakly due to recent adjustment pressures and a recovering dollar index, but it remains in an upward trend [4]. - Key support levels to watch are around $4,320 and $4,300, while resistance levels are at $4,360 and $4,380 [11]. Long-term Projections - Over the next year, gold prices are projected to trend upwards, with a target of $5,000, supported by factors such as a softening job market and ongoing geopolitical tensions [6][8]. - The technical analysis indicates that while gold has faced resistance near historical highs, the likelihood of breaking through these levels remains strong [10].

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing a rebound, indicating a strengthened bullish sentiment and potential for further upward movement, with targets set at $4,380 or higher [1][5]. Price Movement Summary - On December 11, gold opened at $4,224.45 per ounce, reached a high of $4,285.66, and closed at $4,279.56, marking a daily increase of $55.11 or 1.3% [1]. - The daily trading range was $81.35, with a low of $4,204.31 [1]. Influencing Factors - The increase in gold prices is supported by buying pressure and a significant rise in initial jobless claims in the U.S., which marked the largest weekly increase since the pandemic [3]. - The continued decline of the U.S. dollar index has also contributed to the strengthening of gold prices, alongside robust demand for silver [3]. Market Outlook - On December 12, gold opened weakly due to profit-taking but still showed bullish demand, with expectations of a continued decline in the dollar index [3]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including the November non-farm payrolls and CPI, are anticipated to influence gold prices positively or maintain high volatility [5]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, dispelling bearish patterns and enhancing the outlook for new highs [7]. - Weekly charts show that gold is maintaining momentum above the 5-10 week moving averages, suggesting a bullish trend [7]. - Daily charts indicate that gold has broken through recent resistance levels, with expectations to target $4,320 and $4,380 in the near term [9]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $4,260 and $4,245, while resistance levels are at $4,310 and $4,340 [9]. - For silver, support is noted at $62.50 and $61.65, with resistance at $64.30 and $64.90 [9].