一觉醒来，川普又"语出惊天"。 美东时间周三，特朗普就最近自己一系列"操作"直面回应。 他宣称"我不需国际法"、必须"拥有"格陵兰、威胁"开炮"伊朗、希望访问委内瑞拉、"故弄玄虚"美联储新主席…… 最近的特朗普，几乎要掀翻整个西半球。 掳走一国总统、抢石油抢资源、四处"点火"、大规模退"群"……这几乎成了这位美国总统的常规操作。 眼下，全球秩序几近崩溃，世界地缘局势风险激增。 "我不需要国际法" 美东时间周三晚间，特朗普在接受美媒采访时宣称，作为最高统帅，他的权力仅受"自身道德规范"的限制。 并将国际法及其他限制其动用军事力量、对全球各国实施打击、入侵或施压的制衡机制置之不理。 当被问及他的全球权力是否受到任何限制，特朗普称自己的道德准则和个人意志是唯一能够阻止自己的因素。 他预计美国将"长期控制"委内瑞拉，并从该国庞大的石油储备中获取石油。 自生擒委内瑞拉总统后，特朗普在霸权上似乎"放开了手脚"。 这一番话下来，总结就是：没有什么能束缚的了我，我就是法。 希望访问委内瑞拉 特朗普坚称委内瑞拉的临时政府"给予了美国一切我们认为必要的支持"。 对于"接管"委内瑞拉的时间表，特朗普明确表示："会持续很长时间。" ...

张尧浠：非农及指数调整来袭、金价多头风险与机会并存 上交易日周四(1月8日)：国际黄金触底回升垂线收阳，仍处于中轨及短期均线之上，显示仍有再度走强的前景，但日内周期处于调整走盘，短期或陷入震 荡波动，但那方向仍看好继续刷新高点的观点不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4459.68美元/盎司，先行偏强运行后转回落走低，延续到亚盘尾及美盘初处于持续震荡行情，并在欧盘尾录得日内低点 4407.55美元，最终触底回升，并到美盘尾再度拉升刷新日高点录得4479.20美元，并持稳收于4477.11美元，日振幅71.65美元，收涨17.43美元，涨幅 0.39%。 影响上，日内受到周三遇阻回落压力，以及芝商所近期第三次上调贵金属期货保证金，以及美盘初数据好于预期等利空压力，打压金价持续走低，但由于 支撑买盘推动，以及周初请数据仍高于前值，美国10月批发销售月率疲软利好，再加上美联储理事呼吁今年降息150个基点，美国大使馆警告：未来几天 乌克兰或遭受一次大规模空袭等，金价触底回升转强收阳。 展望今日周五(1月9日)：国际黄金开盘先行窄幅偏弱波动，受到连续走强的美元指数，以及市场对于非农就业数据预期利空的忧虑，还有本周将启动的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced volatility with a significant drop during the US trading session, failing to maintain the 4000 mark due to various factors including Federal Reserve officials opposing a rate cut and reduced geopolitical risks [2][3]. Market Performance - Gold prices peaked at 4020-50 but faced resistance, leading to a drop [2]. - The current international gold price is reported at 4002, with domestic gold prices at 919.5 and 916.5 for different contracts [4]. Central Bank Activity - The World Gold Council reported that global gold ETFs saw net inflows for five consecutive months in October, with daily trading volumes reaching historical highs [2]. - The People's Bank of China has been the largest buyer of gold among global central banks since 2022, indicating a trend in central bank purchases [3]. Technical Analysis - The gold market is showing a potential upward trend if it maintains above the support level of 3965, with resistance at 4083 [6]. - A head and shoulders bottom pattern is forming, suggesting a short-term upward movement [6]. - Caution is advised as the market may face challenges in sustaining upward momentum before 11 AM [7].

Market Overview - On October 16, U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping over 300 points, down 0.65% to 33,963.94 [2][4] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla falling over 1% while Nvidia rose over 1% [4] - Regional bank stocks experienced significant declines, with Zions Bancorp (ZION) down over 13% and Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) down over 10% [4] Precious Metals - Precious metals prices surged, with London spot gold rising over 2% to $4,326.48 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures increasing over 3% to $4,344.30 per ounce, both reaching historical highs [5][6] - London spot silver also rose over 2%, achieving a record high [5] Oil Market - International crude oil prices fell, with both WTI and Brent crude futures dropping over 1%, reaching their lowest levels since early May [7] - Analysts suggest that geopolitical risks are having a diminishing impact on oil prices, with fundamental factors likely to exert new downward pressure [7] Geopolitical Developments - U.S. President Trump announced a lengthy phone call with Russian President Putin, discussing the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and subsequent U.S.-Russia trade issues [8] - A face-to-face meeting is planned in Budapest, with both leaders expressing a willingness to engage in discussions [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies and interest rate cycles on gold prices, predicting a wide range of fluctuations in the second half of the year, with potential upward movement towards $4,000 in early next year [8]. Market Performance - On July 8, international gold prices opened at $3,338.19 per ounce, reached a high of $3,345.53, and then fell to a low of $3,286.89, closing at $3,301.49, marking a daily decline of $36.7 or 1.1% [1]. - The daily trading range was $58.44, indicating significant volatility [1]. Influencing Factors - The strengthening of the US dollar index and rising US Treasury yields have put pressure on gold prices, as market sentiment improved with expectations of trade agreements between the US and its partners [3][4]. - Despite some countries receiving temporary relief from tariffs, overall tax rates have increased, raising economic concerns [3][7]. - The US public debt is nearing $30 trillion, with a projected deficit of nearly $2 trillion for the fiscal year 2025, which could impact the dollar's long-term stability [7]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a potential top formation for gold prices, with expectations of a decline to around $3,000 or $2,600 if key support levels are breached [10]. - Current trading is above the May moving average, suggesting a bullish trend remains intact unless this support is broken [10]. - The daily chart shows increased bearish momentum, with expectations of further declines towards the lower Bollinger Band and 100-day moving average support [12]. Future Outlook - The gold market is expected to maintain a wide trading range between $3,000 and $3,400 in the second half of the year, with a potential bullish trend resuming in early next year [8]. - Key upcoming events include the release of the US wholesale sales data, which is anticipated to be bearish for gold prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bullish sentiment in the gold market, driven by geopolitical risks and trade tensions, with expectations for gold prices to potentially reach $3,500 per ounce in the near future [1][8]. Market Performance - On June 4, gold opened at $3,353.67 per ounce, fluctuating within a range of $20-25, hitting a low of $3,343.67 and a high of $3,384.45, ultimately closing at $3,372.14, marking a daily increase of $18.47 or 0.55% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $40.78, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Influences - The U.S. dollar index faced resistance and retreated, which supported gold prices. Weak U.S. economic data raised expectations for interest rate cuts, pushing the dollar index back to a six-week low [3][5]. - Geopolitical tensions and trade concerns have reignited, contributing to a bullish outlook for gold as previous easing pressures dissipated [7][8]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates that gold prices have maintained a bullish support trend above the May moving average, suggesting continued upward momentum [10]. - The weekly chart shows that gold remains above the 5-week moving average, reinforcing a bullish outlook as it awaits a test of the $3,500 level [11]. - The daily chart indicates that while bullish momentum has weakened, gold is still positioned above key support levels, suggesting potential for further gains towards $3,435 or $3,500 [13]. Future Outlook - The overall sentiment remains positive for gold prices over the next one to two years, with expectations for high-level adjustments or further increases [8]. - Key economic indicators to watch include U.S. jobless claims and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision, which may influence market dynamics [5][8].

Group 1 - Silver futures are experiencing short-term pressure due to reduced safe-haven demand as market risk appetite increases following President Trump's comments on EU tariffs [1][2] - Trump announced the extension of the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU until July 9, which has contributed to a rise in U.S. stock index futures [2] - Geopolitical risks continue to support silver prices despite the current market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - Silver futures showed little volatility on Monday, trading within a small range around 8300, indicating a high-level consolidation under a bullish trend [3] - The key levels to watch are 8400 on the upside and 8250 on the downside, with potential trading strategies focused on high short and low long positions within this range [3] - A breakout from this range may prompt a reassessment of trading strategies [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have rebounded above $3,300, with significant increases in Chinese gold stocks and a notable return of Chinese buyers to the market [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Chinese buyers have returned to the market, with buying activity in the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) triggering purchases in the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) [2]. - The total open interest in COMEX gold contracts increased by 3%, while silver contracts rose by 4% [2]. - Despite an 8% drop in gold prices previously, domestic holdings in China remained stable, indicating no significant sell-off among investors [2]. Group 2: Import and Trading Activity - China's gold imports surged by 73% month-on-month in April, reaching the highest level in nearly a year [6]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's premium remains strong despite high gold prices, reflecting continued demand from domestic investors [6]. - The People's Bank of China allocated new import quotas to commercial banks to meet investor demand [6]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Rising geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Israel's potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, have contributed to increased market risks [4]. - The return of Chinese buyers is seen as a critical factor in the current market dynamics [4]. Group 4: Options Market Insights - The skewness of gold options remains low at approximately 2.25v, indicating a lack of interest from hedge funds outside of China [6]. - The volatility of 6-month 25% out-of-the-money call options is around 19.5%, suggesting potential for better performance if gold prices reach new highs [6].