Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a seasonal decline in loan issuance for July, predicting new RMB loans to be less than 100 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 200 billion, resulting in a growth rate around 7% [4][5]. - Social financing (社融) is expected to remain stable in July, with an estimated increase of 1-1.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 300-500 billion, and a growth rate of around 9% [13]. - The report highlights a seasonal drop in corporate credit demand, with short-term loans expected to show negative growth, while retail loan growth remains weak due to low consumer leverage willingness [6][7]. Summary by Sections Loan Issuance - In June, loan issuance saw a seasonal peak but was constrained by insufficient demand, with a total of 3.1 trillion in new loans for the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 670 billion [4]. - The report predicts that July will see a further decline in loan issuance, with corporate loan demand particularly weak due to economic pressures [6]. Social Financing - The report forecasts that government bond issuance will continue to support social financing growth, with a projected increase of 1.25 trillion in government bonds for July, a year-on-year increase of 566.2 billion [14]. - Direct financing through corporate bonds and other instruments is also expected to show marginal recovery, contributing to the overall social financing growth [13]. Monetary Indicators - M1 growth is expected to remain stable around 4.5%, while M2 growth may see a slight decline to approximately 8.1% due to seasonal factors and shifts in deposit patterns [17]. - The report notes a "see-saw" effect between different types of deposits, impacting the overall monetary growth dynamics [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a seasonal recovery in loan issuance in June, driven by a low base effect and increased demand from banks due to performance assessments and year-end evaluations [4][6]. - It predicts that new RMB loans in June will be around 2.3-2.5 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 200-400 billion [4][6]. - The report anticipates a stable growth in social financing (社融), with an expected increase of 4-4.2 trillion in June, reflecting a year-on-year rise of 700-900 billion and a growth rate of approximately 8.9% [12][15]. - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to improve slightly in June due to the low base effect from the previous year, with M1 projected to reach around 3% and M2 expected to exceed 8% [19][20]. Summary by Sections Loan Issuance - In June, the loan issuance is expected to show a seasonal increase, with a projected total of 2.3-2.5 trillion RMB, which is a year-on-year increase of 200-400 billion [4][6]. - The manufacturing PMI for June is forecasted at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery in production and new orders [4]. Social Financing - The report estimates that social financing will see an increase of 4-4.2 trillion in June, with a growth rate of about 8.9%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [12][15]. - The direct financing segment is expected to remain low, with government bonds contributing significantly to the overall financing growth [12]. Monetary Supply - M1 and M2 growth rates are projected to improve due to the low base effect from last year, with M1 expected to reach around 3% and M2 anticipated to exceed 8% [19][20]. - The report notes that the shift of government deposits to residents and enterprises will further support M2 growth [20]. Credit Demand - The report indicates that corporate loans will continue to be the mainstay, with a seasonal increase in short-term loans expected in June [7]. - Retail credit is also anticipated to grow seasonally, although the improvement in consumer demand remains limited [9]. Interest Rates - The report discusses the trends in discount rates, noting a decrease in rates for various terms in June, with the 1M rate averaging around 0.81% [5][10]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with the potential for credit growth to face challenges due to insufficient effective demand and regional economic conditions [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The April credit data showed a significant decline due to insufficient demand, hidden debt replacement, and seasonal factors, leading to a "smaller month" characteristic. In May, loan issuance is expected to seasonally increase but may still be constrained by a lack of effective demand, resulting in a year-on-year decrease [4][5]. - The report predicts that May's new RMB loans will be around 700 billion, with a growth rate of approximately 7.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the end of April. The overall credit expansion is expected to remain weak due to insufficient effective demand [5][16]. - The report anticipates that the growth of social financing (社融) in May will be stable at around 1.9 trillion, maintaining a growth rate of 8.7%, supported mainly by government bond issuance [14][21]. Summary by Sections Credit Market Outlook - In May, the new RMB loans are expected to be around 700 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 250 billion. The credit issuance will show a seasonal rebound but will still be affected by insufficient effective demand [4][5]. - The report highlights that the corporate sector remains the mainstay of credit expansion, while retail lending continues to show weak performance. Corporate medium and long-term loans are expected to support growth, while retail loans are anticipated to remain subdued due to weak consumer demand [5][7]. Social Financing - The report forecasts that social financing will see an addition of approximately 1.9 trillion in May, with a stable growth rate of 8.7%. This stability is largely attributed to the continued issuance of government bonds [14][21]. - The breakdown of social financing indicates that the new RMB loans will contribute around 500 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of about 300 billion. The report also notes a low strength of bill discounting compared to April [15][16]. Monetary Supply - The report expects a slight upward adjustment in M1 growth for May, while M2 growth is anticipated to remain stable at around 7.9% to 8%, similar to the end of April. The growth of M1 is influenced by seasonal factors and the low base effect from the previous year [18][21]. - The report discusses the impact of fiscal deposits on the growth of resident and corporate deposits, indicating that government deposits may exert a certain crowding-out effect on these deposits [19][21].

2025 年 5 月 9 日 行业研究 4 月金融数据前瞻及 5 月流动性展望 ——流动性观察第 109 期 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 3 月金融数据前瞻及 4 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 108 期 2 月金融数据前瞻及 3 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 107 期 1 月金融数据前瞻及 2 月流动性展望——流动性观 察第 106 期 12 月金融数据前瞻及 1 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 105 期 11 月金融数据前瞻及 12 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 104 期 10 月金融数据前瞻及 11 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 103 期 9 月金融数据前瞻及 10 月流动性展望——流动性 观察第 102 期 1Q25 信贷投放同比多增，达到历史次高水平，信用活动呈现较强"靠前发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a seasonal rebound in credit issuance in March, with an expected increase in new RMB loans of approximately 3.2 trillion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 7.3% [4][16]. - The liquidity outlook for April suggests a marginal easing of the financial environment, with the central bank likely to maintain a relatively loose monetary policy to counter potential risks amid increasing external uncertainties [24][30]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Liquidity Outlook - March's financial data is expected to show a strong seasonal recovery in credit issuance, with new loans projected at 3.2 trillion RMB, slightly higher than the previous year [4]. - The report highlights a "tail" effect in bill rates at the end of March, with a rebound in credit issuance strength and positive performance in leading indicators like PMI [3][4]. Credit Structure - Corporate loans remain the primary driver of credit growth, while retail loans are experiencing a "price reduction promotion" strategy, with household financing needs still in the process of recovery [5][7]. - The report notes that the demand for corporate loans is supported by improved industrial production and infrastructure investments, with March's manufacturing PMI rising to 50.5% [5]. Social Financing - The report estimates that new social financing in March will be around 5.1 trillion RMB, maintaining an 8.2% growth rate compared to February [13]. - The main contributors to this growth are on-balance sheet loans and government bonds, with a notable increase in government bond financing [15]. Monetary Supply and Policy Outlook - M1 and M2 growth rates are expected to improve in March, driven by increased fiscal spending and a shift of government deposits to the private sector [20][22]. - The report anticipates that the central bank may implement further counter-cyclical monetary policies, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments, to ensure liquidity remains ample [31][32].