Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3200 yuan (+10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-20), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3210 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Outlook - The black metal sector showed divergence today, with coal and coke dropping significantly, iron ore continuing to rise, and steel maintaining a volatile and moderately strong trend. Steel spot trading volume was generally weak, significantly weaker than yesterday [5] - Last week's data showed a slight resumption of blast furnace production, but the overall output of the five major steel products still declined, with rebar production cut more than plate. Total steel inventories continued to decline, but hot-rolled coils saw a slight increase in inventory. Except for cold-rolled steel, the apparent demand for each steel product declined, suppressing steel price performance [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection is difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, still exerting pressure on the upside. However, recent steel production cuts and plate inventory reduction have alleviated some pressure, with the main fluctuations coming from raw materials. Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the situation requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils are still performing better than rebar overall, and it is expected that the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar will still be in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a volatile and moderately strong trend within a range [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold long positions in the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - In October 2025, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6%; the cumulative production from January to October was 158.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. In October, China's medium and heavy wide strip steel production was 18.145 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%; the cumulative production from January to October was 187.496 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. In October, China's wire rod (coil) production was 10.861 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; the cumulative production from January to October was 113.005 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [9] - In October 2025, China's air conditioner production was 14.204 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%; the cumulative production from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.0%. In October, the national refrigerator production was 8.788 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 6.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. In October, the national washing machine production was 11.035 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%; the cumulative production from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%. In October, the national color TV production was 18.04 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%; the cumulative production from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2025 年 11 月 11 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3160 元（-），北京敬业 3190 元（+10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3280 元（+10），天津河钢热卷 3190 元（-）。 【交易策略】 今日黑色板块维持震荡偏弱走势，其中焦煤领跌，成材强于原料，钢材现货成交 整体一般偏弱，投机情绪较差，低价刚需一般。上周钢联数据公布，华北地区高炉继 续减产，钢材产量整体下滑，但近期电炉又转向增产，预计接下来螺纹供应仍然增 长；上周螺纹库存仍然去化，但热卷整体累库，各钢材表需均有所下滑，供需结构压 制钢价表现；近期铁水加速减产，对原料产生挤压，导致钢材价格重心下移；而四季 度资金释放放缓，下游回款慢，项目数量同比下滑，宏观方面影响逐步消退，上方仍 然存在压力。今日发改委在供暖季强调能源保供是例行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price continues to decline, and the futures market shows weak performance. The blast furnace operation remains stable, while the electric furnace production increases. Building materials inventory is decreasing faster, but plate inventory accumulates unexpectedly. The demand for building materials rebounds month - on - month, with weak domestic and strong foreign demand for plates. Steel mill profits decline, and the basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar diverges. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel has improved recently, with short - term price rebound potential, but the sustainability is unclear and the amplitude is weak due to macro - impacts. - For iron ore, the spot price of ore drops slightly, and the futures price falls significantly. Global shipments decline month - on - month, while the arrival of resources at ports increases substantially. Iron ore demand remains stable, and port inventory accumulates significantly. Shipping prices decline, and the basis spread on the futures market has no operation space. Recently, the supply - demand structure of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the market is bearish due to the expected supply increase from the Simandou project. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Price - The Shanghai rebar spot price and the hot - rolled coil spot price have both declined. The rebar 01 contract dropped 66 to 3037, and the spot price in East China decreased by 70 to 3180 yuan/ton week - on - week. [7][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production is basically stable. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide is 84.27%, unchanged from last week, and the ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons week - on - week. - Electric furnace supply increases. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide is 53.2%, up 2.13 percentage points week - on - week. - Rebar production decreases slightly, with a cumulative reduction of 2.24 tons to 201.16 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreases slightly by 1.45 tons to 321.84 tons week - on - week. [11][13][19][22] 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials demand rebounds month - on - month. The weekly consumption of five major steel products is 873.10 tons, up 16.2%. The consumption of building materials increases by 35.6% month - on - month, and the construction site demand rebounds significantly. - For plates, domestic demand is weak, while foreign demand is strong. The production schedule of three major white - goods in October continues to decline, and the domestic consumption data in September is weak. However, due to the decline in domestic steel export quotes and the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the export orders are acceptable. [23][25][28] 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits continue to narrow, and electric furnace losses expand. The steel mill profitability rate is 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 153 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 57 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week. [29][32] 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar inventory: The total inventory of rebar in steel mills decreases by 7.7 tons, and the social inventory decreases by 10.89 tons week - on - week. Currently, the inventory of rebar in steel mills and social inventory face significant year - on - year pressure. - Hot - rolled coil inventory: The inventory in steel mills decreases by 5.75 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increases by 12.04 tons. The total inventory is still accumulating. [34][38] 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 01 contract basis closes at 173, up 16 from last week, and the hot - rolled coil 01 basis closes at 46, narrowing by 29. The basis of the two contracts diverges, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of the hot - rolled coil basis to widen. [39][41] 3.1.7 Inter - term Spread - The rebar 1 - 5 spread closes at - 56, basically unchanged, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread closes at - 20, with the inversion deepening by 7. Currently, the two varieties basically maintain an inverted level, and the short - term change direction is unclear. [42][44] 3.1.8 Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrows significantly. The spread of the main contract narrows from 178 to 167, and the spread of the mainstream brands of hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai narrows from 90 to 40, mainly due to the supplementary decline of the hot - rolled coil spot price. [45][48] 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore drops significantly, and the spot price also declines. The 01 contract drops 24 to 771, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port drops 11 to 778 yuan/ton. [51][53] 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments decline slightly month - on - month. The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3207.5 tons, down 72 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in October is 3243.25 tons, down 39 tons month - on - month. - The arrival of resources at ports increases for two consecutive weeks. The current arrival volume at 47 ports is 3144.1 tons, up 368 tons week - on - week. [54][56][62] 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: Pig iron production is basically stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 240.95 tons/day, down 0.59 tons/day week - on - week. - Speculative demand: The average daily spot trading volume at major Chinese ports is 109.6 tons/day, up 70 tons week - on - week, but recently shows a weakening trend. [63][65][68] 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports accumulates, with a total of 14961.87 tons, up 321 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the increase in arrivals and the decline in port clearance. - Steel mill inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills is 8982.7 tons, down 63 tons week - on - week. Steel mills are mainly consuming inventory and have weak procurement enthusiasm. [69][71][74] 3.2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices decline. The freight from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.213 dollars, down 1 dollar week - on - week, and the freight from Australia to Qingdao is 10.555 dollars, down 1.6 dollars week - on - week. [75][77] 3.2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrows in a volatile manner, closing at 21, down 2.5 week - on - week. The 01 contract basis closes at 49, widening by 14, and is expected to widen to over 60. [78][80]

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (2025-06-16): Supply-Demand Structure Weakens, Black Market in Weak Oscillation [1] Research Team - Zhengxin Futures Industrial Research Center, Black Industry Group [2] - Researchers: Xie Chen, Yang Hui [3] Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The supply-demand structure of steel products continues to weaken this week, and it is expected that the black market will remain in a weak operation overall. Maintain a bearish view and cash in some profits when a new low is reached [7]. - Last week, the supply of iron ore improved, demand continued to slow down, and the supply-demand pattern weakened overall. This week, it may still trade on the logic of inventory accumulation of building materials in the off-season, and ore prices will remain in a weak operation. Maintain a shorting strategy, add short positions moderately on rebounds, and hold them in the medium term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar was still operating at a low level below 3000, and the market sentiment remained weak. The 10 - contract fell 6 to close at 2969. The spot price oscillated, with rebar in East China reported at 3080 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week [12]. 1.2 Supply - The output of blast furnaces decreased slightly, and electric furnaces continued to cut production. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased for five consecutive weeks. The average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. Short - process steel mills still face large - scale losses, and production cuts are expected to continue. Rebar production decreased, and hot - rolled coil production decreased by 4.1 tons to 324.7 tons week - on - week [18][21][25]. 1.3 Demand - Building material demand decreased month - on - month, and the domestic demand for plates also weakened. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased, and the actual demand for building materials decreased significantly due to the off - season and bad weather. The domestic demand for hot - rolled coils may decline faster in the consumption off - season, and the manufacturing industry faces increasing downward pressure [28][32]. 1.4 Profit - The profit of long - process steel remained at a high level, while the profit of electric furnaces continued to decline. The profit of long - process building materials was around 70 - 100, and the profit of hot - rolled coils was around 150 - 200. As of the 13th, the national average profit of short - process was - 124 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 21 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [36]. 1.5 Inventory - The inventory reduction speed of building materials was average, and the inventory of plates continued to accumulate. Rebar social and steel mill inventories decreased, while hot - rolled coil factory and social inventories increased [39][43]. 1.6 Basis - The basis of rebar narrowed significantly. The current rebar 10 basis is 101, narrowing 54 from last week. Continue to hold reverse arbitrage positions and pay attention to the profit - taking opportunity around 80 [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread narrowed by 3 to 1, and the inverted situation was completely reversed. The near - month contract faces off - season pressure, and the far - month contract also faces trade conflict interference. The price difference is expected to fluctuate around par [52]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar has no obvious driving force to continue narrowing. The current futures spread is 113, narrowing 4 from last week, and the spot spread is 90, remaining the same as last week. The spread is at a neutral level, and no operation is recommended [55]. 2. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated downward, and the futures price rebounded at a low level. Last week, iron ore oscillated weakly, the 09 contract fell 4.5 to close at 703, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port fell 13 to 720 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The shipments from Australia and Brazil were flat, and the arrivals continued to increase. The global iron ore shipments in the current period were 3510.4 tons, up 79 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports increased, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past three years [63][69]. 2.3 Demand - The rigid demand decreased as blast furnace output declined, and the speculative demand also decreased as port transactions declined. The daily average hot metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 241.61 tons/day, down 0.19 tons/day week - on - week. The daily average port transaction volume was 94.9 tons, down 2 tons week - on - week [72][75]. 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased, and downstream inventory also increased. The inventory at 47 ports increased by 103 tons to 14503.14 tons, and the inventory of imported sinter powder of 114 steel mills increased by 130.63 tons [78][81]. 2.5 Shipping - The freight from Brazil to China increased. The freight from Western Australia to China was 10.3 dollars/ton, remaining basically the same, while the freight from Brazil to China was 26.3 dollars/ton, up 1.8 dollars/ton week - on - week [84]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore narrowed slightly, and the basis also decreased. The 9 - 1 spread was 33, narrowing 3 from last week, and the 09 contract discount was 35, narrowing 6 from last week [86].