1背后逻辑 2022年以来，螺矿比持续走低。截至2025年11月底，该比值接近历史低点。本文通过复盘螺矿比的历史 走势，以及这两个品种的基本面情况，梳理背后的逻辑，以便更好地把握当前的行情。 历史上螺矿比上升趋势可以分两类：一种是在历史波动中枢中（4~6），螺矿比从中枢下沿上涨至上 沿；第二种是螺矿比向上突破中枢上沿，也就是从6向上突破的阶段。本文重点选取2014—2015年和 2017—2018年螺矿比的上涨行情进行复盘。 2014—2015年螺矿比从中枢下沿上涨到中枢上沿 2014年1月—2015年3月，螺矿比从3.7上涨至6.2，当时螺纹钢和铁矿石价格延续下跌走势，铁矿石价格 跌幅大于螺纹钢，导致价差走强。其间有三次明显的上升行情：分别是2014年1—6月、2014年9—11月 及2015年3月三个时间段。 2014年，铁矿石供应增幅高于需求增幅，港口库存在6月创历史新高，螺矿比从3向上修复至5。2014— 2015年是铁矿石新增产能集中释放期，供应能力大幅增加。在需求增速（粗钢产量）大幅降低的情况 下，供应增速还在攀升。2013年8月—2014年6月期间，铁矿石港口库存持续上升，从7200万吨上涨至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Currently, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of low valuation with downward drivers, still facing significant pressure, but the downside space may be quite limited, and it is difficult for unilateral speculation. From a technical perspective, the futures prices are still in a medium-term downward trend, and after short-term narrow-range fluctuations, they are facing a direction choice. As long as the downward trend in the technical aspect is not completely changed, they should be treated as low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - The long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held, but it may need to endure a long period of low-level fluctuations [8][74]. - For unilateral speculation, it is recommended to maintain a wait-and-see attitude. After the bottom is constructed on the technical side, market expectations improve, and the prices fully reflect the weak demand reality, a good medium-term long opportunity will emerge [7][73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Valuation: Rebar and hot-rolled coils are currently in an obviously undervalued state, and the valuation of the 01 contract of rebar is relatively lower [8][44][74]. - Driver: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand. The downward pressure on prices is mainly caused by two aspects. Firstly, there is high inventory, especially the inventory pressure of hot-rolled coils is greater. Secondly, the decline in consumption, the losses of steel mills, and the relatively longer time that terminal demand stays at a low level may trigger the industry to cut production beyond the seasonal trend, causing a negative feedback loop in iron ore and coke [8][72][74]. - Strategy Suggestion: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74]. 3.2 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil Futures and Spot Market Review - Spot Prices: In the recent week, rebar spot prices rebounded slightly, while hot-rolled coil spot prices showed mixed trends. Recently, rebar spot prices were significantly stronger than hot-rolled coil spot prices [13]. - Basis: The basis of rebar has narrowed, mainly because the futures price increased more than the spot price. The basis of the near-month contract is larger, indicating that the near-month valuation is lower without considering the capital cost. The basis of hot-rolled coils continued to narrow, and the far-month contract has turned to premium [15][18][20]. - Spread: The spread between the near and far months of rebar remained at a relatively low level, and there was no good opportunity to go long on the near-far month spread for now. The near-far month spread of hot-rolled coils basically fluctuated around zero, with no good trading opportunities. The spot coil-rebar spread was low, while the futures coil-rebar spread was in the normal range [23][25][28]. - Ratio: The rebar-iron ore ratio was generally at a low level and may rise in the future, presenting a good long opportunity. The rebar-coke ratio has dropped significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline [31][44]. - Profit: Due to the回调 of coking coal, coke, and iron ore prices, the profit of steel mills has improved, but they are still in a loss state overall. Short-process steel mills are in a loss state whether using off-peak electricity or normal electricity [33][35]. 3.3 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: With the arrival of the consumption off-season, steel production generally continued the seasonal downward trend. Although the molten iron production of 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, it is expected that this rebound will not last long, and the molten iron production of steel mills is likely to continue to decline. Independent electric arc furnace production remained at a relatively high level [47][51][72]. - Demand: Terminal demand has entered the consumption off-season and is in a period when winter storage has not yet started. Demand is expected to put significant pressure on prices. Due to the influence of the leap month this year, the Spring Festival is coming later, meaning that winter storage will come later than before, and terminal demand will stay at a low level for a relatively longer time [57][72]. - Inventory: Currently, social inventory continues to decline, but the total inventory of the five major varieties is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The total inventory of hot-rolled coils is near the record high and significantly higher than the previous same-period levels. The total inventory of steel billets in Tangshan is still increasing, and the inventory of steel billets in major warehouses and ports is also at a high level in the same period in history [62][66][69]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Opportunity Research and Judgment - Market Outlook: In the short term, rebar and hot-rolled coils are in a state of weak supply and demand with large inventory pressure. Before the arrival of winter storage, terminal demand will continue to decline seasonally, and molten iron and steel production will also gradually decline. Iron ore and coke prices may enter a negative feedback loop. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, winter storage will come relatively later, and the market may need to endure a longer period of low demand [72][74]. - Investment Opportunity: Unilateral speculation should maintain a wait-and-see attitude; the long-term strategy of going long on the rebar-iron ore ratio can continue to be held [7][8][73][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel**: Unilateral observation; wait for the opportunity to enter the spot-futures positive spread [8] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Temporarily observe [8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Fluctuating, industrial customers should do appropriate selling hedging [8] - **Iron Ore**: Hold short positions [8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: Prices temporarily stabilized, with small increases of 10 - 20 yuan on Thursday. Trade volume increased significantly. Future steel production is expected to decline, and in the early stage of production cuts, it may suppress furnace materials, while in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance. Due to the large basis, it is not advisable to short on the disk. It is recommended to reduce exposure through physical positions [2] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by external macro factors, market sentiment declined, and the prices of the two silicons followed the adjustment. In the short term, they may trade based on fundamentals. Currently, there are still concerns in the fundamentals, with high supply, large inventory removal pressure, and weak downstream demand. Prices may fluctuate under pressure [2] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Mongolian coal customs clearance returned to a high level, and coal mine destocking slowed down. Spot coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. However, considering the approaching off - season of steel demand, falling steel mill profitability, and environmental protection restrictions, the tight supply - demand situation of coal and coke may ease. The market is expected to fluctuate. In the short term, it is recommended to observe unilaterally, and in the long term, go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [4] - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure and prices are falling. The supply is within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline this week. Iron ore port inventories will continue to rise. With weak supply - demand, shorting unilaterally is a good choice [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Fluctuations**: On November 6, for far - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3102.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 11.00 yuan (0.36%); HC2605 closed at 3265.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.21%); etc. For near - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 3037.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 12.00 yuan (0.40%); HC2601 closed at 3256.00 yuan/ton with a gain of 7.00 yuan (0.22%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On November 6, the spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 65.00 yuan/ton; the coil - to - rebar spread was 219.00 yuan/ton; the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.91; etc. [1] Spot Market - **Steel**: On November 6, the prices of Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou rebar were 3200.00 yuan/ton, 3210.00 yuan/ton, and 3260.00 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 30.00 yuan, 50.00 yuan, and 0.00 yuan [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to rise due to tight supply. The port trade offer for coke was 1560 (-), and the coking coal price index was 1392.6 (+8.7). For Mongolian coal, the market was cold, with prices such as Ganqimaodu Port: Mongolian 5 raw coal at 1165 (-) [4] - **Iron Ore**: The supply was within a reasonable range. Affected by environmental protection restrictions in Hebei, molten iron production continued to decline, and port inventories were expected to rise [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot price continues to decline, and the futures market shows weak performance. The blast furnace operation remains stable, while the electric furnace production increases. Building materials inventory is decreasing faster, but plate inventory accumulates unexpectedly. The demand for building materials rebounds month - on - month, with weak domestic and strong foreign demand for plates. Steel mill profits decline, and the basis of hot - rolled coils and rebar diverges. Overall, the supply - demand structure of steel has improved recently, with short - term price rebound potential, but the sustainability is unclear and the amplitude is weak due to macro - impacts. - For iron ore, the spot price of ore drops slightly, and the futures price falls significantly. Global shipments decline month - on - month, while the arrival of resources at ports increases substantially. Iron ore demand remains stable, and port inventory accumulates significantly. Shipping prices decline, and the basis spread on the futures market has no operation space. Recently, the supply - demand structure of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the market is bearish due to the expected supply increase from the Simandou project. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Steel 3.1.1 Price - The Shanghai rebar spot price and the hot - rolled coil spot price have both declined. The rebar 01 contract dropped 66 to 3037, and the spot price in East China decreased by 70 to 3180 yuan/ton week - on - week. [7][9][10] 3.1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production is basically stable. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide is 84.27%, unchanged from last week, and the ironmaking capacity utilization rate is 90.33%, down 0.22 percentage points week - on - week. The daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, down 0.59 tons week - on - week. - Electric furnace supply increases. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide is 53.2%, up 2.13 percentage points week - on - week. - Rebar production decreases slightly, with a cumulative reduction of 2.24 tons to 201.16 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreases slightly by 1.45 tons to 321.84 tons week - on - week. [11][13][19][22] 3.1.3 Demand - Building materials demand rebounds month - on - month. The weekly consumption of five major steel products is 873.10 tons, up 16.2%. The consumption of building materials increases by 35.6% month - on - month, and the construction site demand rebounds significantly. - For plates, domestic demand is weak, while foreign demand is strong. The production schedule of three major white - goods in October continues to decline, and the domestic consumption data in September is weak. However, due to the decline in domestic steel export quotes and the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the export orders are acceptable. [23][25][28] 3.1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits continue to narrow, and electric furnace losses expand. The steel mill profitability rate is 55.41%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric arc furnace building material steel mills is - 153 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit is - 57 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton week - on - week. [29][32] 3.1.5 Inventory - Rebar inventory: The total inventory of rebar in steel mills decreases by 7.7 tons, and the social inventory decreases by 10.89 tons week - on - week. Currently, the inventory of rebar in steel mills and social inventory face significant year - on - year pressure. - Hot - rolled coil inventory: The inventory in steel mills decreases by 5.75 tons week - on - week, while the social inventory increases by 12.04 tons. The total inventory is still accumulating. [34][38] 3.1.6 Basis - The rebar 01 contract basis closes at 173, up 16 from last week, and the hot - rolled coil 01 basis closes at 46, narrowing by 29. The basis of the two contracts diverges, and attention can be paid to the opportunity of the hot - rolled coil basis to widen. [39][41] 3.1.7 Inter - term Spread - The rebar 1 - 5 spread closes at - 56, basically unchanged, and the hot - rolled coil 1 - 5 spread closes at - 20, with the inversion deepening by 7. Currently, the two varieties basically maintain an inverted level, and the short - term change direction is unclear. [42][44] 3.1.8 Inter - commodity Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market narrows significantly. The spread of the main contract narrows from 178 to 167, and the spread of the mainstream brands of hot - rolled coil and rebar in Shanghai narrows from 90 to 40, mainly due to the supplementary decline of the hot - rolled coil spot price. [45][48] 3.2 Iron Ore 3.2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore drops significantly, and the spot price also declines. The 01 contract drops 24 to 771, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port drops 11 to 778 yuan/ton. [51][53] 3.2.2 Supply - Global shipments decline slightly month - on - month. The current global iron ore shipment volume is 3207.5 tons, down 72 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in October is 3243.25 tons, down 39 tons month - on - month. - The arrival of resources at ports increases for two consecutive weeks. The current arrival volume at 47 ports is 3144.1 tons, up 368 tons week - on - week. [54][56][62] 3.2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: Pig iron production is basically stable. The daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills is 240.95 tons/day, down 0.59 tons/day week - on - week. - Speculative demand: The average daily spot trading volume at major Chinese ports is 109.6 tons/day, up 70 tons week - on - week, but recently shows a weakening trend. [63][65][68] 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory at 47 ports accumulates, with a total of 14961.87 tons, up 321 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the increase in arrivals and the decline in port clearance. - Steel mill inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills is 8982.7 tons, down 63 tons week - on - week. Steel mills are mainly consuming inventory and have weak procurement enthusiasm. [69][71][74] 3.2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices decline. The freight from Brazil to Qingdao is 24.213 dollars, down 1 dollar week - on - week, and the freight from Australia to Qingdao is 10.555 dollars, down 1.6 dollars week - on - week. [75][77] 3.2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore narrows in a volatile manner, closing at 21, down 2.5 week - on - week. The 01 contract basis closes at 49, widening by 14, and is expected to widen to over 60. [78][80]